BREAKING: Twins Agree with DH Nelson Cruz on One-Year Deal

With the FSN mess, there essentially is no TV market for the Twins heading into the 2021 season..

I completely agree with the comments that now we need to sign Paxton or Walker. I can't believe more people aren't clamoring for this. Those are reasonably priced veterans who should easily fit our payroll. We could add one of them and a solid reliever or two and still be around where we were last year. This is no time to cut the budget.

 

I am hoping they are not signing one of these mediocre vets because they are very confident in what they saw in one or more of our prospects last year at the alternate site. I have this feeling based on a few crumbs that Canterino is ready or very near ready. Maybe they are high on multiple SP prospects and want the room to audition them. That would be OK too.

They are at $125M. The budget likely does not have room for a SP and a good RP. If they believe they have prospects that can perform at the same level as the available FAs, it makes more sense to good with prospects in SP roles and sign a good RP.

Mr Lease again sums it up for me. I definitely want a flyer on another starter to avoid relying on Thorpe or Smeltzer hopefully getting us to mid season where a young guy like Duran could fill in if necessary. Bank on the Dirty Sox and LaRussa? I'll take that bet!

$25 the Sox win. I will venmo you if the Twins win the division. Screen shot this if you must. 

With the FSN mess, there essentially is no TV market for the Twins heading into the 2021 season..

How so? Its essentially just a rebrand and name for the station. 

 

The 2019 Twins were a top 5 team in all of those categories, except SB and triples. Usually top 2 or 3. The question is whether 2019 is the anomaly (juiced ball, career years), or 2020 (short season, short "spring" training, injuries). Personally, I don't think either year is very representative for what to expect going forward, but you could make an argument for either.

 

Both 2019 (hitting) and 2020 (pitching) give reasons for hope for this season, which is what I think people are banking on.

The metric that matters most is wins and the Twins got a lot of. those in 2019 and 2020.

So the Twins are around $120+ million in payroll. They could still use a starter AND/OR relief arm. The bigger question, if the Twins by some chance sign two more players, who do they jettison from the 40-man? Willians, or Wade or Cave. Thielbar? One of the newer signees that we know little about in the pen? Smeltzer?

I guess cross that when we come to it.

I like high BA and OBP as much as the next stat fiend. But the case would be stronger for Arraez if he had actually scored a more intriguing number of runs. Last year he was on a 162-game pace of about 80 runs scored. He was under a 100-run pace in 2019 too. When does the magic happen?

 

You know what's an even easier way to score runs, than getting on base? Hitting the ball over the fence. And Arraez basically doesn't do that at all.
 

Last year, 61% of Arraez' plate appearances came out of the 6th or 7th spot--meaning he didn't have the big boppers to drive him in.  As a result, he only scored 6 runs when hitting in those slots, compared to 10 runs when hitting anywhere else.  He got on base 22 times in his 74 PA's from the 6 and 7 spot, leading to the breakdown below, out of 121 total PA's, 44 times reaching base, and 16 runs scored

Hitting 6th or 7th--74 PA's (61%), 22 on base (50%), 6 runs scored (38%)

Hitting anywhere else--47 PA's (39%), 22 on base (50%), 10 runs scored (62%).

Arraez didn't score more runs for the inverse of the reason Eddie Rosario had so many RBI's--Eddie got to hit cleanup behind our best hitters (including two best OBP guys), and Arraez often had to hit lower in the order after our best hitters.

Also, your assertion that hitting homers is an easier way to score runs than getting on base is quite incorrect--for it to be true, half or more of all runs scored would have to be as a result of a homerun.  Over the last 5 years, there have been 97,767 runs scored and 26,380 homeruns hit.  For homers to account for half of all runs scored, they would have to account for 48,884 runs, which averages out to 1.85 runs per homer.

That seems low, but as solo homeruns are rising as a percentage of total homeruns (3 of the top 5 seasons in history in terms of solo homerun percentage have been in the last 5 years, with a fourth year at number 8--caveat; the article I'm referencing which is linked below is from early May 2019).  This means that if we assume over the last 5 years 58% of homeruns have been solo (which is in all likelihood low, as 2016, 2017, and 2018 were all at 59%, and 2019 was at 60% when this article was written), 15,300 of the 26,380 homers hit were solo, or 11,080 were not solo. 

Subtracting 15,300 from the 48,884 run figure which represents 50% of runs, means the 11,080 non-solo homers would need to account for 33,587 runs, or an average of 3.03 runs per non-solo homer.  By definition, that means there would have to be more grand slams hit than 2 run homers--since the highest number of grand slams ever hit in a single season is 176 in 2000, we can safely say more runs are produced without homers than with them.

Scoring runs with homers is certainly more efficient (fewer batters/greater chance for multiple runs), but it is not easier.

https://tht.fangraphs.com/franmil-reyes-and-the-rise-of-the-solo-shot/#:~:text=And%20if%20you%20are%20wondering,is%20eighth%20highest%20since%201920.

https://www.baseball-almanac.com/hitting/higs5.shtml

Last year the Twins averaged 36 plate appearances a game--over 162 games, that's 5,832 PA's.  The Twins could give 12 players each an average of 486 PA's; I can only think of 11 players/platoons the Twins really need to worry about getting PA's for (Garver/Jeffers, Sano, Arraez, Polanco, Simmons, Donaldson, Kepler, Buxton, Cruz, Rooker/Cave, and Kiriloff/Larnach).

As such, if there were no injuries, I think the 8 guys listed by themselves would get about 525 PA's, with the other 3 platoons resulting in 250 to 300 PA's each.  Obviously, there will be injuries this year, just for Buxton, Donaldson, Simmons, Arraez, and Cruz the over/under on games missed has to be at least 150.  What the Twins have managed to do is create a lineup that shouldn't have any truly weak links.  If the ideal lineup is Garver, Sano, Polanco, Simmons, Donaldson, Kepler, Buxton, Arraez/Cave/Rooker, Cruz, then your bench consists of Jeffers, 2 out of Arraez/Cave/Rooker, and then either Kiriloff or Blankenhorn.

I like high BA and OBP as much as the next stat fiend. But the case would be stronger for Arraez if he had actually scored a more intriguing number of runs. Last year he was on a 162-game pace of about 80 runs scored. He was under a 100-run pace in 2019 too. When does the magic happen?

 

You know what's an even easier way to score runs, than getting on base? Hitting the ball over the fence. And Arraez basically doesn't do that at all.
 

True, but the best way to get all those solo home runs the Twins hit to be more effective is to have someone on base.  If I recall, he spent a lot of last year hitting in the lower part of the order.  The Twins lineup in 2020 didn't have all the production from the bottom three as it did the year before.

So the Twins are around $120+ million in payroll. They could still use a starter AND/OR relief arm. The bigger question, if the Twins by some chance sign two more players, who do they jettison from the 40-man? Willians, or Wade or Cave. Thielbar? One of the newer signees that we know little about in the pen? Smeltzer?

 

I guess cross that when we come to it.

I would guess either Tortuga or Wade, probably in that order. My preference would be (in order, new pitchers excluded) Tortuga, Cave, Wade.

If they don't view Tortuga as someone they'd be comfortable with as the primary backup catcher should something happen to Jeffers or Garver, then the rest of "positional flexibility" is trumped by Arraez moving into that spot and/or having Blankenhorn in St. Paul.

If they like his defense behind the dish, then it could easily be one of the other two. With 2/3 of the OF set and 3 MLB-ready guys and another not far behind that could play LF, Cave and Wade are kind of redundant. My preference would be to hang on to the younger guy with the better defense and unproved bat. 

Agreed, especially given that the MLBPA rejected MLB's schedule proposal, which means the 2021 season will revert to the normal five postseason berths per league. The White Sox are expected to make *huge* strides this season and they were already pretty good last season. The Twins could easily win 92 games and miss the postseason entirely.

 

Go get Paxton or Odorizzi. Make it happen, no team is going to coast to the AL Central title in 2021.

And a back of the bullpen arm.

Good reality check. With the way last season went down, I would imagine the distance between ranking 20th in a stat and ranking 15th isn't very large, etc. The Twins have a solid chance to regress toward the mean in many of these categories.

 

I think it's folly to believe that Rosario's absence will not be felt as he was a top-3 contributor to almost all of these categories, if not the leader. The situation is far from hopeless, but yeah we're probably not looking at many top-5 or top-10 finishes at the team level next year.

Yeah his piss poor at bats and strike outs, poor base running and fielding  will surely be missed.

Dang Soria signed with AZ for 3.5 million. I think we will be fine if the Twins go get Clippard and Rosenthal or the other Alex Coloumbe. That would be a good enough offseason for me. If they add Paxton on top...wow...

The metric that matters most is wins and the Twins got a lot of. those in 2019 and 2020.

Except when they actually mattered most, in the play offs. If they go into the play offs at .500 and win a series, thats a better season than 2019 and 2020 regardless of regular season stats. 

I absolutely hate it whenever someone makes a comment, someone else has to turn it into a debate. My original point is that I....me, no one else...wants to see Arraez playing alot. Why I like how he takes great at bats and gets on base a lot. You don't have to agree and I would appreciate your not responding.

The beauty of baseball is it's many dimensions. There will always be many open questions.That leads to discussions and debates. It's a healthy thing on a healthy board. Nonsense comments and snarky remarks aren't healthy. TD doesn't often suffer that problem. I appreciate this debate/discussion. Got me thinking and I learned some things. Out of respect for your request in this specific discussion, I pass on commenting. 

...I'm also probably the only one who'd like Rich Hill back on the cheap, right?

Nope.

In another post earlier this offseason, I suggested the FO asking for a Word version of Maeda's contract so they could do a search-and-replace, swapping Maeda's name for Hill and having the same arrangement for him. If he does enough to cost us $10M, cool problem to have!

I guess I am one of the only ones that is concerned about this team's offense.
Plus in every department and downright dangerous?
MLB offensive placements in 2020:
15th out of 30 in OPS,
14th in slugging,
20th in OBP,
18th in average,
22nd in walks,
18th in runs scored,
18th in RBI,
20th in hits,
25th in doubles,
last in triples,
last in stolen bases,
and only in Homers at 6th is there something to crow about.
Take NC's stats out of the mix and the most recent season really looks bleak.

I hope this offense is as good as eveyone seems to be sure they are.

How many games did Donaldson and Buxton play last season? How many games were Polanco and Arraez affected by injury (almost all of them)? How much use were Gonzalez and Adrianza in plugging those gaps? The answers to those questions may explain a lot of those stats for a team that set a ML record for homeruns in 2019. You can't guarantee the health of everyone, of course, but there's more depth here now to cover for that. 

This might just be the year we win a play-off game!

Which they just got!

Wasn't the one I had in mind, but at least they didn't scrape the bottom of the barrel.

I wish I was as optimistic as some, but I find it hard to get excited.

This isn’t an “addition.” It’s a lateral move at best. In fact, the average-ish offense (2019 is long gone, folks) isn’t going to get any better by putting Simmons in the lineup everyday in place of Polanco or Arraez and eliminating a .280 30 HR player (Rosario), no matter how poorly some think of him.

The rotation has taken a step back. I’d rather have Odorizzi and Hill than Happ. You can cancel out Hill and Happ and we’re basically just down Odorizzi.

The bullpen has gone backwards. I’d rather have May and Clippard than Colome, and Robles is subtraction by addition.

We’ve improved the defense. But not sure that’s enough to compensate for the other areas.

The team is still full of aging or recently injured (or both) players at a significant number of key spots (3B, CF, SS, DH, 2B, RF, C, whatever you call Arraez now).

I’m not saying it’s bad to be excited. I wish I could be. But we’re not closer to a world championship caliber roster, and the chances of another significant move are slim. We’re likely further away when you factor in the looming regression of Maeda and Cruz.