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While Twins fans have been blessed with being able to watch Miguel Sano and his advanced approach posting equal parts power and patience at the plate, they have also seen pitchers confound Buxton with an assortment of breaking balls. What we have seen out of Buxton is that he has done well in the situation in which he is ahead in the count. The problem, however, is that Buxton has rarely found himself ahead in the count this year.
Buxton’s approach has been what most evaluators would consider raw. The road map to retiring Buxton is pretty clear cut -- get strike one then breaking ball, breaking ball, breaking ball (if needed).
As a leadoff hitter in the minors, Buxton demonstrated patience, attempting to work the count to get his pitch. However, implementing the same approach at the major league level has led to being behind in the count quickly where opponents then dispatch an array of breaking balls with pin-point precision.
It all starts with the ever important first pitch. With exception of Joe Mauer (11% swing rate) and Kurt Suzuki (20%) nobody on the roster has swung at fewer first pitch offerings than Buxton (23%). Unlike Mauer, who teams know can hit and therefore deliver fewer in-zone pitches, Buxton sees a ton of pitches in the strike zone. In fact, opponents have thrown in the strike zone on the first pitch 63% of the time -- the highest rate among the Twins’ hitters. (To be fair, Buxton sees a lot more than just fastballs down the pipe -- he also gets a hefty share of get-me-over breaking balls that most hitters do not.) If he attacks occasionally on a first pitch fastball, he might see fewer in-zone pitches, leading to a favorable count.
Because Buxton has not given pitchers any reason not to fire a strike, they can very easily advance the count to 0-1. And that's when the pitchers put away their fastballs. While the average hitter gets a fastball 46% of the time in pitcher's counts, Buxton sees 43% fastballs. That’s less heat than even Miguel Sano sees (48%).
Buxton is self-aware about his breaking ball issue. Back in 2013, he told Fangraphs.com’s Carson Cistulli that getting his first taste of professional grade benders was an eye-opener. “In the past I had trouble [with them],” Buxton said. “Like, Gulf Coast League and Rookie Ball. It was hard for me to adjust to breaking pitches coming out of high school.”
Buxton eventually grew more comfortable with the pitches -- driving them the other way as he said -- but the leap from Double-A to the Majors introduced him to weapons-grade breaking balls. “I’m not used to seeing such sharp break as much as I did in Chattanooga,” he told reporters prior to his Target Field debut.
As Buxton told Cistulli in 2013, his favorite pitch is a fastball or hanging curveball middle or middle-away so you can understand why the breaking balls look particularly appetizing because that is where they appear to be heading before they dart quickly out of the zone.
It is a learning process for Buxton and being able to lay off that pitch will do wonders for his development. Beyond laying off of breaking balls, Buxton also needs to get more aggressive in certain situations.
Although Buxton has hit the ball well when he works himself into a hitter’s count, he has been one of the more passive hitters in that circumstance. Under conditions in which he is seeing a high percentage of fastballs, Buxton has pulled the trigger less often than everyone other than Joe Mauer.
Being more aggressive can pay dividends. In Boston, Mookie Betts figured out that he could not afford to be as passive as he had been in his rookie season. “(Major league) pitchers are just around the zone more. I feel like you have to swing a little more. You can’t go up there taking,” Betts told reporters this spring. “I kind of learned last year that you can’t go up there taking. You’ve got to be ready to swing it. That’s how (Derek) Jeter got 3,000 hits. He wasn’t up there taking.”
Internally, the Twins had tried to get outfielder Aaron Hicks to unleash more on pitches in the zone. "Walks are great; getting on base is good," Terry Ryan told reporters back in 2013. "But if he has a chance to drive in a run, and he gets a pitch he can handle, let's go. That's all."
This season, Hicks has grown increasingly aggressive in hitters counts, swinging at 46% of the pitches versus just 41% in his first two seasons. The results have been his best offensive season since reach the big leagues. Like Hicks, Buxton is also making the jump from Double-A where the same approach at the plate just won’t cut it.
Each player's development happens at his own pace. Just because two players both excel at one level, does not mean they will have equal success (or failure) at the major league level. That being said, over the recent road trip Buxton showed some signs that he is progressing. In Detroit and Cleveland, Buxton attacked pitches in the zone more, leading to a pair of home runs and a double.
There is plenty of promise. The focus now for Buxton is making sustained adjustments in his approach to ensure that he reaches his vaunted potential.
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