Bailey Upgrades a Familiar Twins Face

The opportunity to sign a top pitcher has passed.

I'm hoping that Bailey is a marked improvement throughout the season from Perez and am especially hopeful he gets off to a strong start in April and May, although not necessarily as strong as Perez was to June. A season of a 4.30 ERA and 180 IP would be a plus.

In one way none of the pitchers we picked up are going to be quite like Gibson. Can you imagine Gibby and his wife getting kicked out of a Viking's game and arrested? Hilarious!!!

Bailey will be better than Perez.  The version of Bailey prior to the last two months is much better than Perez was from May to September.  The real improvement comes from can the splitter be a true pitch and is it possible Wes Johnson can gain a couple miles per an hour out of his fastball and make that a plus pitch.  My gut feel is Bailey will be viewed as the best pitching signing at the end of the year.  Ultimately though we will be looking for two more pitchers at minimum next year in free agency. 

Martin Perez has a dominant cutter last year until he didn’t and couldn’t get it back.

If Bailey struggles look to the effectiveness of his splitter. If effective give him some rope. If not cut ties.

I think this was a good signing. I think a safer bet would've been an innings eater like Julio Teheran. I don't necessarily see the negativity behind this signing. The Cole and Strasburg singings will prob be bad ones even for the Yankees and Nationals. Let alone a team like the Twins. Bumgarner didn't wanted to go to AZ. Wheeler wanted to go to Philly. All the other free agents cost a ton more and could ultimately pitch at the same level a healthy Bailey could. The Twins can afford to overpay for players to get them to come to MN if theres a decent chance their upside is similar to that of a guy like Bailey. They also can afford to waaay overpay a player like Cole or Strasburg (real difference makers) just to get them to come here when they don't want to. Not everyone grew up being Twins fans like us. Are used to the weather and the lifestyle that comes with living in this area.

Seriously. Stop using the excuse no one wants to come here. The team just didn't pony up the money other teams did, period. You just claimed at least 4 people said "no way" to minnesota. It's just patently false. 

Nobody seems concerned that maybe we get the Homer Bailey of the prior 2 years that was 7-23 with an ERA over 6. I hope we get last year's results, but who knows. As for the Wes Johson Kool-aid everyone seems to be on, he has been here 1 year with mixed results. I like the guy, but people have him just turning around pitchers right and left and finding velocity. A couple guys had success, but what happened with Berrios? Guy turned into a complete disaster mid-season. Perez turned back into a disaster. I'm going to need to see a lot more going forward to say Wes Johnson is the pitching messiah. 

Twins fans deserve to be disappointed thus far with the FOs off-season moves.   

They may not be done yet, but they promised "impact", and we have not seen that so far.

Even if Bailey, Hill and the young arms make the starting staff "better" than last year, the team has done nothing to make the rotation "play-off" better.

Until that happens all of these types of signings/moves will be looked upon with skepticism.

The motive behind the Bailey signing is pretty clear and Ted sums it up nicely.  Angry Twins fans act like signing Bailey and Hill was the "impact" pitching the FO was hoping for.

Simply put, the top FA pitchers weren't coming here as has been well-documented.  This is the ultimate "stabilizing" move.  They simply canNOT go into the season with Berrios, Odo and a mixture of Thorpe, Smeltzer, Dobnak, etc. until Pineda comes back.

This at least buys them some time to try and make a trade and, to be honest, I don't expect that to happen until July.  Until then, we'll see Berrios, Odo, Pineda in May, Thorpe, Smeltzer, Dobnak.  Considering they have 20 games with Seattle, Toronto, KC and Detroit in the first six weeks, they may not need a better starter until July.

Simply put, the top FA pitchers weren't coming here as has been well-documented.  This is the ultimate "stabilizing" move.  

Bob:

I agree with this.  But the FO said they were going to add impact players in the off-season and they have not - yet.

Hence the reason for the frustration.

I'm still holding out (a minor sliver of) hope for a trade.

I'd prefer to have that happen before the season so if the player(s) received are rental(s) the Twins can use them all season and also it gives the team more time to convince them to stay...

Bob:

 

I agree with this.  But the FO said they were going to add impact players in the off-season and they have not - yet.

 

Hence the reason for the frustration.

 

I'm still holding out (a minor sliver of) hope for a trade.

 

I'd prefer to have that happen before the season so if the player(s) received are rental(s) the Twins can use them all season and also it gives the team more time to convince them to stay...

  I'd love to see a Gray or Boyd added.  If they can keep one of Larnach/Kirillof and use one in the trade I'm fine with that.  I'm with you.  I'd love to see it happen tomorrow.  I just don't see it happening.  I really think they're going to ride this group, thinking they can stay in contention and lower the price of the pitcher they acquire.

  I'm 100% on board with getting a guy that'll be around 2-3 years for sure.  FO has done a great job replenishing the farm system.  I'd like to see them use some of that talent to help the big club now.

Just looking at his bbref page, I can't see how this could possibly be characterized as an "upgrade."

It doesn't just look like a downgrade from Kyle Gibson, but a downgrade from a replacement level pitcher. I don't see how Bailey possibly qualifies for anything above a minor league deal (like he signed entering last year.)

He had a nice, solid run that ended in 2014. From 2015 on, he's posted a 5.56(!) ERA while averaging only 79 innings per year. Most of that was posted in the NL where average ERA has been hovering around 4.30

At age 34, that is a recipe for unemployment or minor league duty.

I think giving the innings to internal options or AAAA rule 5 or waiver wire pitchers would be a more appealing option as it has potential for some upside.

Are we to project Bailey's production solely on the 73 pretty-good innings he pitched with Oakland?

Should we be convinced that those 73 innings are representative of what can be expected in 2020? Moreso than the previous 4.5 years?

Are we supposed to be convinced by his track record of having a better FIP (4.71 since 2015)? Are we not supposed to remember how that reasoning worked when we brought in Nolasco? 

I don't get this one at all.

Believe it or not, you can't stack a rotation 1-5 with guys like Berrios and Odorizzi.

Boy are we expecting alot out of Ordorizi this season. He's good, but let's be honest here guys, he's a #3-4 starter.

If he was that solid #2 guy, then our Front office completely messed up by not extending him more than one year. Even they feel like he is a mid rotation starter.

Don't get me wrong, I like him. But he's generally a 5-6 inning pitcher, who keeps you in games. He's far from dominant though. 

I was responding to a poster who suggested he was a significant downgrade from Kyle Gibson.

Gibson posted a 95 ERA+ last year.

100 is league average. League average for 1 year $7M is a bargain. I'm not sure what people are demanding from a 1 year $7M signing?

And I was just pointing out, his track record and career arc wouldn't make me project an "average" 2020 contribution. His age and stats would make me expect he's about done as a major league contributor. 

His 2019 league average performance represented a marked improvement over the previous 4 years.

Homer Bailey's past 5 years: 5.56 ERA, 96 IP per year

Kyle Gibson's past 5 years: 4.41 ERA, 171 IP per year

The FO has to be seeing a story that his basic stats don't tell. I'm skeptical because his bbref page doesn't say "upgrade." It really looks like a pitcher who signs to a minor league contract + spring training invitation.

If the best we can hope is league average production, I'd rather see those innings allotted to an ascending pitcher. 

Of course, that might not be the best we can hope for. i just don't see it.

Thanks for engaging in a respectful and thoughtful discussion. 

I'm positing that perhaps last year's improvement was driven by a specific and sustainable change he made, either mechanical or approach.

If that's the case, then the last 5 years aren't very meaningful.

Only the numbers from the point he made that change onward are.

I don't personally know if he made an adjustment, or just got lucky in a 73 inning sample size. But I trust that the FO has done some homework where that is concerned.

This still leaves 2 spots for internal options. Bailey isn't blocking anyone. Every team needs league average guys to fill out their team, even the big spenders.

I'm positing that perhaps last year's improvement was driven by a specific and sustainable change he made, either mechanical or approach.
If that's the case, then the last 5 years aren't very meaningful.
Only the numbers from the point he made that change onward are.

I don't personally know if he made an adjustment, or just got lucky in a 73 inning sample size. But I trust that the FO has done some homework where that is concerned.

This still leaves 2 spots for internal options. Bailey isn't blocking anyone. Every team needs league average guys to fill out their team, even the big spenders.

Maybe the FO is picking up on something legitimate. I guess we have to hope so. If nothing else, there is another arm in the pool. 

I'm not feeling inspired. Oh well. I'm still glad to write Berrios and Odo's names in the rotation slots. All the other guys I look forward to seeing likely wont make the team but Bailey+Hill+Pineda don't represent formidable barriers to forcing one's way into a rotation.   

"This same think tank may have seen the breakout of Anibal Sanchez coming, and this is an opportunity for them to execute fully on a similar scenario."

Huh? I guess we'll know for sure that Bailey is breaking through if our 'think tank' releases him in March.

Look, Bailey represents one of a handful of things the Twins FO needed to do this off-season. Most of the other things, they haven't been able to execute on yet. This one they did. So, we've got a guy that MIGHT be good enough to replace an unhealthy and under-performing Gibson.

So, we've got that going for us. Which is...meh.