Assessing the Twins Trade for Tyler Mahle

12 hours ago, andy4butler said:

I would hate to be picking from this mess.  Denying those club options requires pay out.)  

2023 Salary

Gray ($12 M - Club Option)

Bundy ($11M - Club Option)

Archer ($10M - Mutual Option)

Mahle (Arb-3 ~$10M)

Maeda ($3M + Bonuses for IP)

Paddack (Arb-3)

Dobnak ($1.5M)

Ryan (Pre-Arb)

Ober (Pre-Arb)

Winder (Pre-Arb)

Smeltzer seems to be an after thought.

Balazovic, SWR, Henriquez, Sands, Varland, Strotman, Enlow

I'm not sure how many 40 man roster spots are required to go to the "prospects" at the bottom ... but it sounds like an offseason trade will be necessary or many of these individuals have to go to the pen.   It isn't like management is going to allow any of them to face a 19th batter of the game so maybe everyone should double up and tag pitch.  

 

There's no way I pay Bundy $11M or Archer $10M next season. The buyout for each is $1M and $0.75M - a well deserved bonus for how they have kept the team afloat this year.

Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Paddack, Ryan are all starters obtained by trade. They've developed Ober and Winder but neither one can stay healthy for a full season. Smeltzer is probably most valuable in the bullpen.

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Funny thing about last year's draft. While I was happy with Povich's and Hajjar's production so far, last season during the draft I wasn't exactly thrilled. TWO Big 10 pitchers in the first in the first four picks?!?! Big 10 pitchers hardly EVER succeed in the majors as starters. Alex Wimmers, Tyler Jay, Aaron Slegers. Learn your lesson already Twins!

Who was the last decent starter the Big 10 produced, Jim Abbott (sorry Glen Perkins, get well soon Max Meyer)?

Eagerly awaiting examples to show I was wrong.

You're right there's not much. At least Glen Perkins was successful. Cory Luebke was good but injuries took him out of baseball.  Meyer is on the injury road too. 

I like this trade quite a bit. Mahle has been a quality starter now for the last couple of years, he's only 27, and he's under team control for next season. If he were a 1-year rental then it would have been an overpay, but...it's not. He's going to slot in very nicely right now, when the team has a serious need, and he prevents them from needing to go bargain bin shopping next offseason or praying 2-3 young pitchers step up immediately. next year's rotation looks like: Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda, and Ober/Winder which is solid, and if a better FA is signed, it lets us deal someone like Winder for another need. Mahle has gotten better at keeping the ball in the park in recent years, and that's even pitching in Cincy. (He's going to love having Buxton & Correa behind him for the rest of the year!)

We gave up some quality prospects, but none of them were likely top 100 guys going into next year. Steer is a useful player, but still profiles to be a backup/platoon player in the infield. He's slipped back a bit upon promotion to AAA, and while I still like him as a player, he's going to be 25 next season. He isn't great defensively anywhere.

CES is the one I like the most; he might be a special hitter. But he's also not good at all in the field, and might be looking at shifting down to 1B in the future, meaning he really needs to hit to get it done. Now, I think he might be one of those hitters, but you have to give to get and he's still spent less than half a season in AA to this point. Who knows how he'll end up.

Hajjar is a nice player, but he's doing well at 22 in A-ball, not pushing for a shot in AAA. He might be a solid rotation piece in 2-3 years, but also might be a guy who struggles when he gets to AA and discovers that his 3rd pitch isn't good enough at that level. Or an injury could derail him. He's a good prospect, but not a great one and if you have to let him go to get Mahle then I think you have to do it.

Mahle fills the need immediately for a team that (when healthy) has a contending lineup. Steer might have been our #6 prospect, but he was also a 3rd round pick that grew into that. If we're able to keep developing non-first round picks, then our talent pipeline will be just fine and we'll have improved our MLB club faster.

Remember when people on this board were saying the Twins should trade from their deep 6-man rotation in April?

Let's not worry about next year's starting 5 yet...

3 hours ago, Minfidel said:

Great trade, but don't fall in love with the idea of Mahle being with the Twins for 5-6 years. If he does well we could be looking at another Berrios situation in a year. I'm glad the Twins acquired a front-line pitcher; now, can they keep him? 

Few players, especially pitchers, perform at a high level for 5-6 years.

There's a reason (besides Pohland cheapness) that teams are reluctant to commit to long-term deals.

Considering Mahle just came off the IL with a shoulder ailment, I'd like to get through this season before even considering any kind of extension.

If all works out, maybe try to buy out his final year of arbitration with a 2-3 year extension. 

Twins were exceptionally lucky to draft four guys of value in 2021 (I've believed they screwed up drafting Noah Miller, who really, really looked like a Jace Peterson type before they drafted him).  That helped a really depleted farm system, and now we're back to that.  I highly doubt you can count on that sort of thing again.

Now the Twins are looking at two starters who are crappy and three who are done after 2023 (Gray, Mahle, Maeda) with very little left to replace them in the system.  They'll have Ryan, Ober, and cross your fingers after that.  No one that right now you can even count on to provide depth really.

I think it's difficult to assess this one.  Steer and CES are higher floors but probably have low ceilings at their eventual positions.  Hajjar may not have been a game-changer here and probably won't be in Cincinnati.  But I think they all would have helped the Twins.

Basically, I think it comes down to the Twins developing their talent better, because there's very little left that will have a big impact.  Lewis, Rodriguez, and maybe Brooks Lee (college bats have a terrible track record) and the rest of the top ranked are mediocre or garbage.  SWR and Austin Martin and Matt Wallner and Winder (inj) and Balazovic and such as top ten does not cut it in the least.

So, I don't know.  Just pretty sure the Twins are in a bit of trouble in a few years wrt the farm system between what it was already and trading four top guys (note they were four of the best despite their ratings, they were the ones wanted after Lewis and Rodriguez).  Time to start hyping Bryan Acuna!

21 hours ago, minman1982 said:

...  Imagine what this season would look like if Maeda was pitching like he did last year every fifth game.

 

That would have been nice but Maeda pitching every 5th day like he did in 2020 would have been AWESOME!

They missed on Castillo who Seattle got for less than what Twins gave for Mahle. But Ok pickup. But still no team goes deep without an Ace. So until Twins get one they are a one and done at best!!

I think the Twins got a great deal here. I'm sure the Reds were fielding other offers for Mahle so that points to how well valued Steer, Encarnation-Strand and Hajjar were outside the organization. It does feel like we're working hard to build the Reds into a monster farm system at this point, haha.

Honestly, I can't do anything other than grade this an "A" Regardless of whether or not Mahle is the ultra-stud some fans on the site think he will be or just a very solid mid/upper rotation arm, the Twins didn't give up a ton here to get him (conventionally speaking).

On 8/2/2022 at 10:18 PM, USAFChief said:

The Twins aren't short of starters?

I believe the Twins have a lot of starters. Few of them are front of the rotation types and way too many of the starters including prospects who could have helped this season are hurt. So, I'm concerned about Mahle coming off the IL recently with a shoulder (?) issue. 

I wish the FO was this active during a 100+ win season like 2019 instead of trading away 8-9 prospects buffing up a .500ish squad this year. Do these trades make the Twins WS contenders this season? Will they beat the Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, or Padres this year? Should "we" be trading away prospects with the short-sighted goal of winning a single playoff game finally?

14 hours ago, MGM4706 said:

They missed on Castillo who Seattle got for less than what Twins gave for Mahle. But Ok pickup. But still no team goes deep without an Ace. So until Twins get one they are a one and done at best!!

Well said. They overpaid for Mahle.