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  • Assessing the Donaldson and Kiner-Falefa Trade With the Yankees


    Ted Schwerzler

    Just when you thought the Twins had done enough this weekend to keep us on our toes, Derek Falvey went ahead and blew the roof off. A blockbuster with the Yankees started as Jon Heyman suggested a catcher was coming to Minnesota. Then the bomb dropped that Josh Donaldson was moving, and things got crazy.

    Image courtesy of Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

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    Another deal in which the player totals aren’t even; the Twins sent the additional talent this time. Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Ben Rortvedt are going to New York. In exchange, Minnesota gets catcher Gary Sanchez and third basemen Gio Urshela.
     
    There’s no level of this deal that shouldn’t make your head spin, so let’s break it down into smaller pieces.
     
    Third Base
    This is straightforward. Josh Donaldson is moved off the position, and Minnesota is no longer on the hook for his contract's remaining $50 million. Set to make $21.75 million in 2022, a team with something like $35 million in payroll flexibility just pushed that number over $50 million. Donaldson wound up playing just 163 games across two seasons with Minnesota. The shortened pandemic season didn’t help the longevity, but his nagging calf issues were present the first season. 

    There was never a reason why the Twins should’ve considered a cash dump regarding Donaldson and his salary. Still playing at a high level in 2022, any move needed to come with a certain level of return. Ultimately, that’s what ended up happening.

    Gio Urshela debuted with Cleveland back in 2015 but posted just a .587 OPS through his first 148 Major League games. After a short stint in Toronto, he wound up in New York, and boy did Gio arrive in a big way. During 2019 Urshela posted an .889 OPS with 21 homers. He all but replicated that in 2020 before lacking power production last season. His 96 OPS+ basically was league average, however, and he’s just 30-years-old. He’s not the defensive stalwart Donaldson is at the hot corner, but he’s hardly a butcher either.
     
    What Urshela does offer is an easier path to playing time for the likes of Jose Miranda. Should the newly acquired piece continue to decline or start slow, Minnesota won’t hesitate to promote the 2021 standout prospect. Urshela is owed just $6.55M this season, and Miranda will get his opportunity to push for playing time at the hot corner. This is also another area that Luis Arraez could contribute.
     
    Shortstop
    Minnesota had its Opening Day shortstop for something like 35 hours. After acquiring Kiner-Falefa, he was sent to New York, who has been tied to the biggest names at the position. Kiner-Falefa was basically a replica of Andrelton Simmons, minus the weirdness, and now Falvey will go back on the hunt there.

    Urshela has accumulated just over 200 innings at shortstop, but he shouldn’t be considered an option there. Jorge Polanco is not moving back across the diamond, which again turns us back to the market. With so much cash while both Carlos Correa and Trevor Story are still on the market, there’s reasonable speculation that Minnesota could have their sights set there. Both presumably want long-term contracts, and neither Royce Lewis nor Austin Martin are slam dunks to remain at short.
     
    Catcher
    A former All-Star and Silver Slugger, Gary Sanchez joins the Twins as a backup for Ryan Jeffers. He’s not good defensively, and his bat has been lost since 2019, but maybe Minnesota can turn it around for the 29-year-old. Sanchez has solid on-base skills and does show a good amount of discipline in the box. His power potential is immense, with two 30+ home run seasons to his credit, but the key will be finding consistency.

    If it wasn’t apparent when the Twins dealt Mitch Garver, it’s certainly clear now that they’ve leaned all the way into Jeffers as their regular. Ben Rortvedt also went to the Yankees, and he’d be considered the most well-rounded defender of that trio. Jeffers obviously has made enough strides to feel comfort in pairing him with Sanchez, and there shouldn’t be an emphasis on splitting time evenly.
     
    Removing Donaldson opened up a rotational designated hitter spot for Minnesota, but it should be immediately accounted for by Sanchez, who will see regular starts there as well. It’s clear that Minnesota has solidified their plan at catcher, however.
     
    This was a huge move, the second of the day for Minnesota. Now with so much payroll flexibility and an arrow pointed towards competing, there’s no guessing how crazy this front office will get next.

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    1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

    There are no pitchers to sign. 

    But why not keep Donaldson AND sign Story?

    They had plenty of payroll space. Oodles. There was zero need to salary dump. 

    I do agree I'll be shocked if Story is a Twin, though. And pissed he's not lining up next to Donaldson. 

    They do have Miranda ready to replace Donaldson. I think they want to allocate the Donaldson money towards a starting pitcher they bring in via trade.

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    Does anyone know what each of the incoming Yankee's salaries are and how long before free-agency?  I saw that Urshela will make $6.5M this year, but how long is he under contract?  I think I saw that Sanchez is a free-agent this year, but what is his salary?

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    2 minutes ago, roger said:

    Does anyone know what each of the incoming Yankee's salaries are and how long before free-agency?  I think I saw that Sanchez is a free-agent this year, but what is his salary?

    Roster resource on fangraphs has all your answers 

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    3 minutes ago, roger said:

    Does anyone know what each of the incoming Yankee's salaries are and how long before free-agency?  I think I saw that Sanchez is a free-agent this year, but what is his salary?

    Sanchez: 1/7.5

    Urshela: 2 years. 6.55 this year and ARB 3 next year 

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    3 hours ago, KFEY93 said:

    They were going to be regardless. They needed 3 new proven good to great pitchers in both the rotation and bull pen and that wasnt going to happen. 

    GEE, now we will have poor fielding skills to go with sub-average pitching, BRILLIANT, fans stayed home last year and more will stay home this year.

    100 losses, every fans dream.

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    This trade seems to fall in line with my speculation that Gray could be traded if we are not in the mix for a playoff spot.  They can easily dump Urshela, and Sanchez for more prospects at the deadline.  Adding to it is that we removed the riskier years of Donaldson's contract as he approaches 40.  Every move so far seems like we are taking a chance on competing this year without locking us into an immediate win-now window.

     

    If we fall out of the race again, we can look to unload any of Urshela, Sanchez, Gray, Kepler, Duffey, Bundy and get another influx of nearly ready prospects to help in 23 and beyond.

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    13 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

    Roster resource on fangraphs has all your answers 

    Thanks, Mike.  Wasn't someplace I went to before. 

    So unless there is another deal in the works with a team who wants one or both of these guys, this has to be viewed as a way to unload Donaldson's salary.  Unfortunately, on the surface this appears to me to the Yankee's taking our FO to the woodshed.

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    10 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

    I guess this is what it took to move JD and have the Yankees take all his salary. Too bad the FO couldn’t have found another deal. Ideally, they would have just moved JD and signed Story (which I’m assuming they are going to do now). Urshela helps Miranda ease in, but, if that transition is successful, there is no reason for Urshela to be on the team - so he’d get moved at the trade deadline.

    Decimating the catching depth is very confusing. Sanchez is just not very good anymore - certainly not as good as Garver and, if his hitting continues its deterioration, I’d rather have Rortvedt as well. The Yankee sites are saying that Rortvedt will platoon at C - so someone there had enough respect for his game to not only carry him on the roster, but feed him plenty of innings.

    Again, getting a couple of has beens who carry some cash costs and we hope will rebound or otherwise we will jettison is a pretty high cost to pay to move JD’s salary and give up a couple very solid depth catchers.

    Signing Story will help, but couldn’t we have just done that anyway?

    So a year from now (or maybe next week or by the trade deadline) if everything goes as likely will happen, Miranda will be at 3B, Story will be at SS, Urshela and Sanchez will be gone, the Twins will be looking for catching depth, and will some extra cash on hand. Not a disaster, but sure will be a roundabout way to get there. 

     

    We had a excellent defense with one above average bat and another who was no worse than what they dumped talent for.

    Now we have holes at third and short stop, even if they get Story they will be far below what they had last year.

     They still have nothing in left field even a decent shadow of what they let go, stupidity has just rewards.

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    17 minutes ago, roger said:

    Thanks, Mike.  Wasn't someplace I went to before. 

    So unless there is another deal in the works with a team who wants one or both of these guys, this has to be viewed as a way to unload Donaldson's salary.  Unfortunately, on the surface this appears to me to the Yankee's taking our FO to the woodshed.

    It is a great tool, which is why I didn't just answer your question. 

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    I have never been a real fan of this front office but I like what they are doing so far.  I think they have a plan and we need to give them a few days to work it out.  I think the Donaldson move is freeing up money to spend on a shortstop.  Great shortstops are hard to come by, and if Story is healthy he can be great.  They still need to add some pitching to make this successful, but these moves might be coming.   I hope I am right, otherwise it’s going to be another rough season that is pretty much over by May.   

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    Via baseballprospectus.com

    TWINS PAYROLLS

    Year Opening Day 26-man Year End 40-man CB Tax 40-man
    2022 $000,000,000 (00) $000,000,000 (00) $000,000,000 (00)
    2021 $125,277,666 (16) $125,983,176 (17) $145,511,247 (16)
    2020 $ 45,620,603 (18) $  52,627,942 (19) $168,319,022 (16)
    2019 $119,651,933 (18) $125,205,980 (18) $139,483,897 (18)
    2018 $128,713,226 (18) $131,186,562 (19) $143,820,218 (18)

     

    It is noteworthy that the last two years were tough financially, yet this must be balanced against large profits for all of the previous years. Also to be noted is that the books are private and so all figures are rough estimates.

    The figure repeatedly referenced in trading Josh Donaldson is a savings of $50 million. That doesn't account for the roughly $14-15 million cost of taking on a utility infielder and a DH with enormous power but a bat with many more holes than we ever saw from Miguel Sano. It also neglects the loss of a decent shortstop and a catcher with potential.

    Many have stated that the Twins wanted to clear money to trade for pitchers. There aren't any pitchers making more than $10 million to acquire (Montas - $5.2, Manaea - $10, Castillo - $8.0, Mahle - $5.0, Lopez - $3.75). Adding any two of these pitchers in trades and signing Trevor Story would still leave the Twins around last years budget. 

    So there is work to be done and we are hoping the final roster gets straightened out. The angst about JD's contract and the budget are only relevant if the Twins are trending toward roster budgets much lower than seen in the Falvey era.

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    11 hours ago, h2oface said:

    "His 96 OPS+ basically was league average, however, and he’s just 30-years-old. He’s not the defensive stalwart Donaldson is at the hot corner, but he’s hardly a butcher either."

    Just 30. Inference that Ushela is youngish, but many were considering Garver over the hill at just turned 31. Hmmmmm.

    Catching takes a toll on a players legs. just look at Donaldson, who came to the majors as a catcher. I was against signing Donaldson when he was signed. This salary dump of Donaldson is Falvine's doing, because he signed Donaldson in the first place. I told you so, when Donaldson was signed. 

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    1 hour ago, Bradfoot said:

    This trade seems to fall in line with my speculation that Gray could be traded if we are not in the mix for a playoff spot.  They can easily dump Urshela, and Sanchez for more prospects at the deadline.  Adding to it is that we removed the riskier years of Donaldson's contract as he approaches 40.  Every move so far seems like we are taking a chance on competing this year without locking us into an immediate win-now window.

     

    If we fall out of the race again, we can look to unload any of Urshela, Sanchez, Gray, Kepler, Duffey, Bundy and get another influx of nearly ready prospects to help in 23 and beyond.

    Twins set new league season losses record, shizzam!

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    4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

    Why not just sign a pitcher and not deal prospects for one, if he's pricy? If he's not pricy, you didn't need to free up money. 

    People really think they'll sign Story? To like a seven year deal? I'll be shocked.

    There are not many team with the money to sign Story left looking for a SS and Houston would appear unwilling to go to age 35 for a SS.  Plus, other teams are looking to move him off of SS.  I don't think he is getting a 7 year deal, especially if he wants to remain at SS.  5 years/110M or 6/120M is my guess.

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    1 hour ago, rickyriolo said:

    Pure salary dump by Twins.

    Concur.

    Would you trade Ben Rortvedt for Gary Sanchez?  I would not.

    Would you trade Isiah Kiner-Falefa for Gio Urshela?  I would not.

    The only missing piece to the trade is Donaldson.  Those who pooh-poohed the notion that he had negative trade value around the entire major leagues are left with defending that our front office must be the stupidest people on the planet, to pull the trigger on the above pair of bad one-for-one trades and then throw in Josh Donaldson for free simply as a sweetener.

    Josh Donaldson is a valuable player when healthy.  But the health risks plus his salary make him a large-market gamble now.

    The FO has opted to redeploy Donaldson's salary.  Half of it goes for Sonny Gray.  We'll see what they do with the rest of it (plus of course the considerable budget headroom they already possessed).

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    From the looks of it, we're a lot worse right now than we were last year. Not good for a team that supposedly has a window. I get that they aren't done... but I'd like to see the rest I guess.  They must really believe in Miranda. I get that Donaldson had trouble staying on the field, which is a big part of why he's gone, but so far this we're looking weaker. 

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    53 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

    There are not many team with the money to sign Story left looking for a SS and Houston would appear unwilling to go to age 35 for a SS.  Plus, other teams are looking to move him off of SS.  I don't think he is getting a 7 year deal, especially if he wants to remain at SS.  5 years/110M or 6/120M is my guess.

    Would you do either of those? I would....

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    2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

    Catching takes a toll on a players legs. just look at Donaldson, who came to the majors as a catcher. I was against signing Donaldson when he was signed. This salary dump of Donaldson is Falvine's doing, because he signed Donaldson in the first place. I told you so, when Donaldson was signed. 

    So, what did we lose by signing him?  Nothing like waiting 3 years for an I told you so.

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    1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

    Would you do either of those? I would....

    Yes and I think the twins are willing to go there.  All of the other stuff points to them having this in hand.  I think they already have a deal or they would not have moved IKF.   I don't have any inside information but that's sure the way it looks. 

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    Three ways of using newly gained payroll flexibility seem like possibilities:
    1. Signing Trevor Story
    2. Taking part or all of a contract that another team doesn't want in order to lower the cost of a pitcher the Twins want—just to speculate, Andrus along with Montas from Oakland, or Myers along with a starter from San Diego
    3. A contract extension for someone, such as a pitcher they acquire in trade

    I think more than 1 of these things can happen, although Donaldson's salary is only enough to offset one of them.

    This will be interesting to watch, but it's hard not to feel like the talent and composition of the roster are worse right now than they were 24 hours ago.

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    4 hours ago, Bradfoot said:

    This trade seems to fall in line with my speculation that Gray could be traded if we are not in the mix for a playoff spot.  They can easily dump Urshela, and Sanchez for more prospects at the deadline.  Adding to it is that we removed the riskier years of Donaldson's contract as he approaches 40.  Every move so far seems like we are taking a chance on competing this year without locking us into an immediate win-now window.

     

    If we fall out of the race again, we can look to unload any of Urshela, Sanchez, Gray, Kepler, Duffey, Bundy and get another influx of nearly ready prospects to help in 23 and beyond.

    Which is why I think it would be a savvy move by the Twins to throw some outrageous money at either Carlos Correa or Trevor Story for one year, something like 1.5x what they're looking for… but for only one year.

    Sell it to the player as chance for the player to work on their long-range contract during the year or in the next off season, which should be quite a bit more stable than this year was.

    This would give the Twins
    • a shortstop
    • a chance to spend the money that they didn't
    • more time to evaluate Lewis and Martin
    • a really great trade chip at the All-Star Break if their season completely sucks

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    Great synopsis from Fangraphs:
    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-yankees-and-twins-exchange-big-names-but-to-what-end/

    "I just gave a ton of reasons why both sides might like this trade, but I still don’t quite understand it. For Minnesota, it feels like a sentence fragment; until the thought is completed, I’m baffled as to what this accomplishes. The Twins downgraded offensively at third, and when you add in the Mitch Garver trade that netted them Kiner-Falefa, they’re meaningfully less steady at catcher, particularly on the defensive side. All of that to save $15 million dollars this year? If that money isn’t doing anything other than enriching ownership, I don’t like this sequence of moves for them at all."

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