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Stolen bases have recently declined as home runs and strikeouts have become more prevalent. However, baserunning is still a vital component for contending teams. A runner being able to move first to third on a single provides positive value that can result in a team scoring more runs. At times, Minnesota has struggled to capitalize with runners in scoring position, and those issues can be tied back to poor baserunning.
Coming out of the All-Star Break, Inside Edge ranked the Twins as baseball’s worst baserunning team. Multiple components go into the metrics used by Inside Edge, but the Twins rank poorly in other sites’ running metrics too.
Statcast’s running metric is tied to sprint speed, and multiple Twins rank well in this category. Byron Buxton leads the team with a sprint speed above 29.0 ft/s, which ranks in the 94th percentile. His speed hasn’t been needed this year because he has a career-high in home runs. Other players that have scored well in sprint speed include Jorge Polanco (77th percentile), Nick Gordon (73th percentile), and Gilberto Celestino (65th percentile). Polanco might be the most surprising in the group as he hasn’t ranked this high since 2019.
The Twins have some runners on the other end of the spectrum, bringing the team’s overall ranking down. Gary Sanchez has the team’s worst sprint speed (25.0 ft/s) and ranks in the ninth percentile. Other poor runners according to sprint speed include Gio Urshela (12th percentile), Ryan Jeffers (22nd percentile), Jose Miranda (29th percentile), and Kyle Garlick (30th percentile). Looking at Minnesota’s roster, it would be easy to pick out those players as the ones who struggle the most on the base paths. However, sprint speed isn’t the only metric that factors into baserunning.
FanGraphs has its own baserunning metric called BsR that “turns stolen bases, caught stealings, and other base running plays (taking extra bases, being thrown out on the bases, etc.) into runs above and below average.” According to BsR, the team’s top three baserunners are Buxton (3.0 BsR), Polanco (0.6 BsR), and Trevor Larnach (0.6 BsR). Larnach being included on this leaderboard might be a surprise because of his build, but his sprint speed ranks at or above Carlos Correa and Luis Arraez. It also points to him getting the most value out of his baserunning skills.
FanGraphs also has a surprising player at the bottom of their BsR leaderboard for the Twins. According to FanGraphs, Correa has been the team’s worst baserunner this year with a -3.9 BsR, which is almost half a win lower than his closest competitor. Correa hasn’t attempted a stolen base since 2019, so all of his negative value has been accrued in other parts of the running game. The other Twins players at the bottom of the BsR leaderboard include Urshela (-3.5 BsR), Miranda (-2.1 BsR), Sanchez (-1.9 BsR), and Celestino (-1.8 BsR). Some of Celestino’s negative value comes from being caught stealing in his only attempt this year. Overall, the Twins rank 29th according to BsR, with the Nationals being the only team ranked lower.
Baserunning can be a tricky metric to quantify, especially with all the decisions that must be made on the base paths. Minnesota has some runners near the bottom of the league, but the team needs to do a better job minimizing their poor baserunning in the second half.
Do you think the Twins are MLB’s worst baserunning team? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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