Arbitrary Predictions

When it comes to arbitration, there are ways to guess and predict where the values will come in. It is based on career numbers to that point, but there can also be some attention placed on most recent performance. It will be interesting to see if baseball's increased revenues will have any impact on the arbitration decisions. Will players get a 10% bump over historical data just because of the revenues?

When we hear that the team and the player file arbitration numbers, a lot of thought and statistical analysis goes into those numbers. The team can’t just lowball the player because it makes reaching an agreement less likely, and it makes it more likely that an arbiter would rule for the player. The same goes the other way. A player can’t just put a $10 million filing number out there if he’s likely worth $2 million because there’s no way the judge would rule for the player. It’s a tough slope.

Here are my thoughts or projections for the week. Get your predictions into the comments section below and we'll see what happens over the next four days.

TREVOR PLOUFFE – 2^nd Year of Arbitration

The third baseman had a very good 2014 season. He made $2.35 million in his first year of arbitration and should nearly double that amount. Should it get to Friday, I would expect Plouffe to ask for around $5.2 million while the Twins would likely counter around $4.5 million. In the end, the midpoint would be about $4.85 million. Plouffe could be a candidate for an extension, either four or five years, or maybe a shorter-term deal like two years.

BRIAN DUENSING – 3^rd Year of Arbitration

Duensing is in his third and final year of arbitration. He received $2 million in 2014. I think that the Twins will offer him a raise to around $2.3 million while Duensing’s representation will likely counter with a number around $2.9 million. In the end, I can see them settling near the midpoint at about $2.6 million.

JORDAN SCHAFER – 2^nd Year of Arbitration

A year ago, the Braves paid Schafer $1.09 million to be an extra outfielder on their roster. He rarely played more than just as a pinch runner and didn’t hit in his limited opportunity. After the Twins traded Sam Fuld and Schafer was DFA'd by the Braves, it only made sense for the Twins to give an opportunity to the former top prospect. He played well the final couple of months for the Twins. He will likely get a small raise. I think his representatives will ask for $1.6 million. I can see the Twins offering $1.2 million. I can see the two sides getting creative. I can see them agreeing to a deal for about $1.3 million with several incentives based on playing time. In other words, if he ends up being the starter, he could make up to $200K more. If not, the midpoint is at $1.4 million.

TOMMY MILONE – 1^st Year of Arbitration

Milone presents an interesting case. A look at his statistics say that he should make some serious money. Had he been in the A’s rotation all season, he could be looking at a $4 million payday. But instead, the A’s demoted him, warranted or not, and when he was traded to the Twins for Fuld, he remained in the minors for about a week. Once with the Twins, he was hurt and didn’t get a chance to increase his value. It’s also interesting because his 2015 role is uncertain. He could be the fifth starter. He could be a long reliever. He still has an option remaining. This is another situation where there could be some creativity. I can see Milone’s side filing a $3 million number while the Twins should file closer to $2.2 million. That puts the midpoint at $2.6 million. Could they reach an agreement for about $2.4 million with incentives for $200K for each ten-start interval?

CASEY FIEN – 1^st Year of Arbitration

Fien had a fine 2014 season. He was one of the better set-up men until a rough September which made his numbers look not as impressive. He achieved Super-2 status this year so he could have four years of arbitration. There are a lot of relief pitchers each year who reach arbitration every year and the range of their contracts is all over the board, so it’s difficult to guess where he could fall in. I think that the high end would be about $2.2 million, so I would think that the Fien side would ask for about that amount. The Twins should counter north of $1.6 million because if it does go to arbitration, it’d be hard to imagine an arbiter siding with a number less than that. I think that the Twins would counter around $1.8 million. At the end of the day, the midpoint is $2 million and that feels about right.

EDUARDO NUNEZ – 1^st Year of Arbitration

There are always several utility infielders who get to arbitration for the first time each year. The range for first year arbitration utility infielders is anywhere from about $750K to $1.4 million. I think that the Nunez camp will likely ask for around $1.2 million. I could see the Twins countering at about $800K. I think there could be an agreement just shy of the $1 million mark.

As you can see, there is a range for where these six arbitration figures can put the Twins payroll. Be sure to check out Jeremy Nygaard’s Rosters & Payroll to keep updated on the Twins payroll.