Analyzing the Early Returns from Matt Shoemaker

While I don’t think you’re wrong about getting from Shoemaker what we should have expected, I think that misses the point. He was brought in to be an adequate fifth starter on a contending team, with the hope he must be better than that. He probably has fit the “adequate fifth starter” role. The problem, of course is, is that the Twins are not a contending team and do not appear likely to be one this season. That means the whole reason to have a Matt Shoemaker no longer applies.

The calls to move on from Shoemaker really involve switching to a development/reloading year as a team. Absent huge uptick in performance which appears unlikely, Schumaker is not on this team next year. On the other hand, Thorpe and Dobnak probably are and at least one of them will be in the rotation. We need to use this year to give them some development time, particularly in Thorpe’s case, to be sure they can handle that role. Conversely, the one way Shoemaker could be on this team next year is if we move into the bullpen and he thrives in a high leverage relief role.

So overall, I would not say Shoemaker’s been a disappointment. He’s been kind of what we all expected, a mediocre fifth starter. Our needs have changed. This team doesn’t need a mediocre fifth starter. This year should be used for the development of someone who can start next year and beyond. The change doesn’t have to start with the next turn in the rotation but it needs to start soon. I think the team does right by Schumaker by making him a reliever because if he’s going to stay in the majors long-term, that’s where he is going to be. Keeping him as the fifth starter accomplishes nothing and is, in my mind, exactly the wrong thing for this team to do going forward.

Do we take comfort when we disliked the addition in the first place and now he has given us all the reasons we need to have to know that he is not going to rise much above the bottom of our expectations.   I do not believe in Dobnak, Smeltzer, and Thorpe.  I think it is the next level of prospects which will have to save us, but that does not mean that they should not have the same opportunity that Shoemaker has had to prove us right or wrong.  Each is an interesting story, but that does not make them the right components of a pennant winning rotation.  

So now we look at Maeda and hope he is not a one year wonder, Berrios seems to be the same as he always has been, good but not great, Pineda is steady and valuable but only signed for this year.  Happ is the perfect number five, but has to serve as a four. 

In other words we have two dependable starters which makes the acceptance of a mediocre five less viable. 

Just another twins pitching reclamation project.  How boring and old is this?  Younger what you invest in.  Twins pitching is terrible.  Shoemaker is just another example.  He's probably doing the best he can.  Are we surprised?  Should we be?

He’s terrible. Give the kids some experience

I don't particularly love the body language I've seen from him this year. Defeated, and it almost looks as if he's on the verge of walking off of the field.

Meeting LOW expectations is a great way to be a bad team... 100% sure Duran would be much better and may even spark some wins. 

I was expecting to be Shoemaker to be decent *if healthy*. To me, durability was the risk in the signing and I thought he would be a guy whose ERA would sit in the low 4’s if he could stay on the field. Sadly, it’s been far from that with way too much blue on his statcast page with his xBA, xSLG, xwOBA and xERA all being in 8th percentile or worse. 
 

The glimmer of hope with Shoemaker is that he has been very effective his first time through the order. Opponents have a .533 OPS against him the first time they face hime, compared to 1.054 the second time and 1.304 the third. 

I give Shoemaker three more starts, and if two of them end up with him giving up something like 4+ earned runs again, I move him to the bullpen and get Thorpe into the rotation. 

No Way.  Shoe gave up 3 BOMBS yesterday.  He's given the Twins very little at all this season.  I realize not every MLB team can have a starting staff as deep as the Dodgers, but good grief, if a team has to "settle" for Shoe's level of "production" in the 5th starter spot, that team is headed for 90-95 losses.  That is not what any of us expected out of the Twins this year is it ??

On 5/19/2021 at 9:36 AM, ashbury said:

Duran has been injured. He was activated only yesterday. A resume including 7 starts at AA in 2019 doesn't strike me as a good reason to bring him up to the majors right away. Let's see how AAA goes for a month.

Should have done my homework on that statement.... there are other prospects that would be better than Shoe... give him the boot!