An Open Letter to Terry Ryan

I'm picturing Ryan opening and speed-reading this letter. He's days away from handing over the reigns to a clubhouse manager who will walk into a dream scenario. He's fresh off his annual meeting in Fort Myers with his staff of many dozens. He heard that the farm system had its best results in decades in terms of the number of elite prospects matching or exceeding expectations regarding their development. This despite his two ultra-elite prospects sidelined and a half-dozen top 25 prospects due back from TJ in the next year or so. And he knows the letter writer is  perhaps not fully aware that the farm system has been producing at a far better than average rate since before those Twins Daily founders started their blog for guys like this writer. He knows he has one of the better scouting and development organizations in baseball, and he's getting another elite prospect from a pitching-rich draft in June.

So, the letter hits the recycling pile and he gets back to work. He feels better this year. He has fewer holes to fill and a few answers in place, and he's nothing if not patient. 

He knows the always-important casual fan will be back as soon as they see a little more evidence that the product is good and he's entirely confident the wins will start coming. No need for a splash just to make a splash here, just a need to execute the plan. 

 

Spend Baby, Spend.

Just spending isn't good enough.  Who would you sign?  How much would you be willing to spend?

No team can afford to spend money for the sake of spending.  The contest is about efficient and effective use of limited resources.  I know the saying goes "You have to spend money to make money," but it's not completely accurate.  You have to spend money wisely to make money.  Even the Yankees can't afford to throw away too much money without hurting their ability to compete.

Would you sign Max Sherzer?  Would you sign him for 7 years/$200M, or whatever crazy figure it will take?  Would you trade Buxton for whoever the Shields equivalent on the market is today?  

The Royals have some things they did that are worth imitating - especially paying attention to OF defense - but sneaking into the wild card and getting hot in October isn't a repeatable strategy.  Maybe they knew something about will Myers (and Wade Davis) that nobody else could see, or maybe they got lucky.  They did have a number of former top prospects who they believed were on the cusp of putting it all together, so they went for it.  

Are the Twins there right now?  i'm going to leave that as an open-ended "maybe" right now, because I have to go.  Just know that if the Twins go for it now and fail, it will be disastrous.  KC almost did that, and they still have to pay the piper this off-season, although with the post-season run they made, they might be able to afford it.

Using KC as model for this year's activity may not equate to the Twins current situation. IIRC, KC had much of their core playing.  Timing is so important and am not sure if this is the time for a bold move - unless it fits into a 3-5 year plan.   

I think Minnesota has a more veteran core (Plouffe, Mauer, Hughes) with enough young talent (Arcia, Santana, Vargas, Escobar, Gibson, Dozier) already here, and some poised to come through in 2015(Meyer, May, possibly Rosario after a hot fall in Arizona) with the Pièce de résistance being Buxton and Sano full time in 2016 likely.

The beautiful thing about the Twins situation, is that they have waves of guys that will be moving through.  Dave Cameron had was on a podcast on Fangraphs, talking about how the second wild card makes mediocrity more beneficial.  With that extra team getting in each year, and basically being a coin flip from the actual playoffs, it means that you don't have to plan your team to be around 93-95 wins to ensure a playoff spot.  88-92 is very reasonable playoff contention now, and it starts to eliminate the need for that "timing" of bringing all the prospects up at once.

Gil4, this got too long to quote your message, but this is in response to you.

First off, let me start off by saying Buxton is basically off the table.  If the right package for Sano came up....it would have to be quite a package though.

I'm not advocating spending for the sake of spending, I just think the organization is in an advantageous position to go out and seriously pursue a top end starter.

Who's looking to get huge arbitration raises or extension in the next 3-5 years. Buxton and Sano won't be up until AT LEAST half way through 2015, which means they'll likely miss super 2 cut offs, meaning they're arbitration eligible after 2018.  Plouffe if he keeps progressing, but with Sano looking at 3rd base, he may become expendable anyway.  Dozier, possibly.  HR numbers always play well in arbitration, but he's still one year from even starting arbitration.  Santana won't qualify until after 2016 and Vargas not until after 2017.  Eduardo Escobar hit super 2 this year, and Arcia will likely hit super 2 after next year. 

As for whether we're there right now, see my above post that mentioned the Dave Cameron Podcast.  There is not as far away as it used to be

But none of these guys stand to make monster numbers in arbitration unless they make big steps forward (Santana is interesting, because the general thought is that he way outperformed himself this year, so we'll see where he settles).  But if 2-3 of these guys see the progress that would facilitate big arbitration numbers, then this team's offense is going to be world series caliber and a big investment in a starting pitcher would probably pay off in the form of playoff appearances.  And on top of that, most of these guys do have highly touted prospects behind them which could open up avenues for trading MLB talent to restock the farm and keep payroll reasonable while you reload internally and not see much of a dip in performance.  And don't forget, that as Buxton and Sano come into arbitration after 2018, Mauer's 23 million comes off the books.

So to answer the question of who I would go after, I would absolutely be offering Scherzer/Lester 200 million, and possibly even 100million over 5 years to Shields.  This team has a lot of young and affordable talent already up here, and the means of reloading down the road if they get too expensive.  I don't think they have to look to move prospects in a Shields-esque trade, because we have the payroll flexibility coupled with a nice free agent pool that they should be able to find a fit without parting with a prospect.

As for whether we're "there" yet, take a look at my comment above about the DAve Cameron post.  "There" is not as far away as it used to be

Birdwatcher:

Wow....that is extremely condescending.  For you to sit here and label me a casual fan when you know absolutely nothing about me is just hilarious.  I've been a firm backer of the rebuild this team has undergone.  I've watched the organization moves knowing that they just weren't in a position to compete, and backed most of their decisions.  I've staunchly defended it over and over and over again because I do follow the minors very closely, and have been able to see the what they're building, and I'm very excited about it.

But I also look at the situation the organization is in beyond the minor leagues.  They have been WAY under budget in payroll, and that's particularly important to note when this year Dave St. Peter was on record saying they attempted to add even more to the payroll to meet the budget that they themselves have set.

I'm not advising the organization to make an all-in move to win now or go home.  I'm not saying sell the prospects because I need to see this team win now.  I'm advising the organization to use it's resources, like it has admitted to failing to do so, and make a move to supplement everything else they're doing.  Not taking advantage of the large amount of unallocated payroll just because their farm system has been performing well is cutting off your nose to spite your face, and it's exactly the type of "self satisfaction" that Jim Pohlad believes haunted the organization in the late 00s and led to the down turn in the early 10s.

But instead, you take the opportunity to gaze down pretentiously on the people you think who just don't get it like you do, rather than reading the actual letter.  You take the words written and fit it to your own little "Other fans are just too stupid to realize the truths that I see" narrative to make yourself feel smarter than everybody else.

Winning will bring back the casual fan.   Spending for the sake of spending or hiring a manager from outside the organization is not going to cut it.

There are plenty of teams  that have tried to spend their way out of the doldrums only to be saddled with ridiculously large contracts and another season of losing. - see Toronto Blue Jays.   Even teams that are competitive now, but have not fulfilled their potential find themselves with big contracts and a very uncertain future - See Tigers and Angels.  

Whatever the club decides this off season - I expect it to be based on a sound philosophy and strategy to get the team back to the playoffs.  The assets in the minor leagues are there - the question is how they use them. The Royals made a decision to part with a slow footed, power hitting - but highly regarded prospect in favor of two pitchers that ultimately put them over the top.  They didn't break the bank to do it - but they leveraged the non-financial assets they had to make it happen. 

Part of the answer will require patience as the likes of Sano, Buxton, Berrios complete the journey to the majors.  

But I expect that it will require that the team parlay some of these assets into much needed parts.  The Twins don't need a multi-million dollar pitcher whose best days are behind him.  But a trade of a key prospect that results in acquiring a critical piece of the puzzle, without an albatross of a contract around his neck, could be the answer.

The point is use the assets you have to build the team you need to win.  Don't simply throw money at the problem.  

Birdwatcher:

Wow....that is extremely condescending.  For you to sit here and label me a casual fan when you know absolutely nothing about me is just hilarious.  I've been a firm backer of the rebuild this team has undergone.  I've watched the organization moves knowing that they just weren't in a position to compete, and backed most of their decisions.  I've staunchly defended it over and over and over again because I do follow the minors very closely, and have been able to see the what they're building, and I'm very excited about it.

 

But I also look at the situation the organization is in beyond the minor leagues.  They have been WAY under budget in payroll, and that's particularly important to note when this year Dave St. Peter was on record saying they attempted to add even more to the payroll to meet the budget that they themselves have set.

 

I'm not advising the organization to make an all-in move to win now or go home.  I'm not saying sell the prospects because I need to see this team win now.  I'm advising the organization to use it's resources, like it has admitted to failing to do so, and make a move to supplement everything else they're doing.  Not taking advantage of the large amount of unallocated payroll just because their farm system has been performing well is cutting off your nose to spite your face, and it's exactly the type of "self satisfaction" that Jim Pohlad believes haunted the organization in the late 00s and led to the down turn in the early 10s.

 

But instead, you take the opportunity to gaze down pretentiously on the people you think who just don't get it like you do, rather than reading the actual letter.  You take the words written and fit it to your own little "Other fans are just too stupid to realize the truths that I see" narrative to make yourself feel smarter than everybody else.

I'm so sorry you were offended. I want you to read what I wrote again please. I did not label you a casual fan or anything else. 

Also, understand I was picturing Ryan's reaction to such a letter, not mouthing my own sentiments, which have been articulated in TD enough. And yes, I meant to portray Ryan's thoughts as being above the casual fan's. If you read the snippet of his interview with Parker Hageman about payroll, you'll see why I would portray him as.....impatient, shall we say...with questions from us more rabid fans.

As for your advice to him, to be honest, your lack of specific suggestions weakened things for me personally. Again, I'm sorry you were offended. It was not my intent whatsoever. 

I'm so sorry you were offended. I want you to read what I wrote again please. I did not label you a casual fan or anything else. 

 

Also, understand I was picturing Ryan's reaction to such a letter, not mouthing my own sentiments, which have been articulated in TD enough. And yes, I meant to portray Ryan's thoughts as being above the casual fan's. If you read the snippet of his interview with Parker Hageman about payroll, you'll see why I would portray him as.....impatient, shall we say...with questions from us more rabid fans.

 

As for your advice to him, to be honest, your lack of specific suggestions weakened things for me personally. Again, I'm sorry you were offended. It was not my intent whatsoever. 

Fair enough.  I flew off the handle a bit there.  Son got immunizations today and it's been rough, and I definitely took it the wrong way.  My bad

So a general response that keeps coming up is that "Don't spend just for the sake of spending."  I get that, but it's not at all what I'm advocating.  The way the organization's contracts are set up, they have a ton of flexibility right now.  I think it's going to be tough to get a Scherzer or Lester here, but the team has the financial flexibility not only now, but 3-4 years down the road as well, to do so.  Although it's not the direction I would go, maybe it's aggressively pursuing Yasmani Tomas.  The point is, the organization has come out saying that they have left money on the table in the past.  If they continue to do that, it only furthers the fans view that they aren't interested in putting a winning product on the field; a sentiment I don't agree with, but one that will hurt their ticket sales, which in turn hurts revenues, which hurts your ability to put up a competitive payroll and to attract quality free agents. 

Just because you pay Max Scherzer 150-200 million, doesn't mean he may not turn out to be an efficient use of money.  If he anchors the top of your rotation for 3-5 years and then transitions to a solid 2-3 guy toward the end, he can still be a very good investment

I appreciate the passion.

Other than Gomez, who else have the Twins acquired via trades that have gone on to success after leaving the Twins?

I appreciate the passion.

 

Other than Gomez, who else have the Twins acquired via trades that have gone on to success after leaving the Twins?

Hardy, mostly.  Garza and Bartlett found success elsewhere, Ortiz was a guy we traded for then blossomed elsewhere, Worley is finding success in Pittsburgh, as is Liriano.

This is a smattering across the years and the most recent ones aren't blockbusters, but if they pitched as they are now for us, they would be significant improvements.

The Gomez > Hardy > Hoey/Jacobson fiasco is really the heart of that comment though

Money & Spending is not the issue.  Is who is doing it.  Cannot think of Ryan spending $ in a productive way.   He is a spendthrift and he is one of the biggest problems in this organization (as is his boss.)

There's a very real argument to be made that Terry Ryan has had very little opportunity to ever be a spender.  The Metrodome financial situation made big spending just not a reality.  And when he took over after 2011, this organization was already in a bad place, and in need of a rebuild.  I would have liked to see more spending through the 2012 and 2013, but I think there are some difficulties in attracting quality free agents that earn big money when they're coming to a team that's rebuilding.

And, it seems, that the Twins are always a bit behind in the "make an offer" stage. The thinking is that a top flight pitcher is $12-14 million, when reality is that they are now $16-20 million.

And maybe they thought Nolasco was one of the best pitchers on the market, rather than in the middle of the pack (everyone thought Garza and Santana would sign for more). And Nolasco, like Corria the year before, jumped at what they thought was a good offer. You have to give Ryan credit for making offers to these guys, although when they did happen (and not after the fact), the support of such offers by folks on this board were "hat is he thinking."

And the days of making an initial offer and hoping for negotiation seems to have passed when doing business for the new year begins. You put the best you can out there, and then the discussion is just over the years of the contract (multiply the $$$ of the average year).

Baseball is a strange and foolish business. Only so many teams can absorb a $20+ million contract each season. Only so many players will be able to get $10 million or more before the wells start to dry up. ALL teams have roster considerations, from prospects to players on the rise, to grizzled old contracts that they wish they didn't have...but paying for the guy, so we have to do something with him.

But back to the above comment. Yes, Ryan seems to be that guy at the auction house that makes the opening bid. Someone raises his offer. While he is thinking about offering a dollar more, ten other people raise the bar at least 30%. But a least he can say he made an offer.

And, it seems, that the Twins are always a bit behind in the "make an offer" stage. The thinking is that a top flight pitcher is $12-14 million, when reality is that they are now $16-20 million.

 

And maybe they thought Nolasco was one of the best pitchers on the market, rather than in the middle of the pack (everyone thought Garza and Santana would sign for more). And Nolasco, like Corria the year before, jumped at what they thought was a good offer. You have to give Ryan credit for making offers to these guys, although when they did happen (and not after the fact), the support of such offers by folks on this board were "hat is he thinking."

 

And the days of making an initial offer and hoping for negotiation seems to have passed when doing business for the new year begins. You put the best you can out there, and then the discussion is just over the years of the contract (multiply the $$$ of the average year).

 

Baseball is a strange and foolish business. Only so many teams can absorb a $20+ million contract each season. Only so many players will be able to get $10 million or more before the wells start to dry up. ALL teams have roster considerations, from prospects to players on the rise, to grizzled old contracts that they wish they didn't have...but paying for the guy, so we have to do something with him.

 

But back to the above comment. Yes, Ryan seems to be that guy at the auction house that makes the opening bid. Someone raises his offer. While he is thinking about offering a dollar more, ten other people raise the bar at least 30%. But a least he can say he made an offer.

AJ settled for less money, Salty the catcher IIRC did also. The offer to Garza was not lowball. The auction house theory is incorrect

Terry Ryan is nothing more than an on-field p.r. mouthpiece for the tight wad pohlads.  The Twins are run like other multi million dollar-cut throat coorperations..They just happen to be a baseball team.  Their number one concern is always to sqeak out as much profit as they possible can....before all others.... make as much money as they can.  All teams are like this to some extent.  But it's the ownerships top priority here.  It's in part why they have more money than most of us cant even wrap our minds around.  They are friggin great business people.

There's a lot of concern about how committed the Pohlad's are to providing a good on-field product.  Like you said, every team puts profits as the top priority.  I also think that every owner will go out and spend and even take a loss on a single year or two if they can build their brand strength (going deep in the playoffs or even winning a WS) because it will result in a stronger fan base and more profits down the road. 

I think this is probably the case with the Pohlad's too, but the last time we were in a position to really compete, they were also pushing for a new stadium, and perhaps didn't make the extra moves needed as a way of making the statement "this is why we need a new stadium."  Or maybe it was just about not letting the payroll keep going up.  If I recall correctly, in 06 and 07 their payroll was pretty high compared to the 50-52% benchmark that they typically set.

That all being said, the next 3-5 years are going to be very telling about whether Terry Ryan is/was constrained by a penny pinching owner, or if it was Ryan's conservative nature that kept things contained