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Eddie Rosario has been part of a Minnesota Twins core that helped lead the team to back to back AL Central championships. From his charismatic way of playing the game, coining the name “Bomba Squad”, and his play on the field he has contributed in significant ways to this era of the Twins.
Unfortunately for Eddie, he does find himself as a free agent after being non-tendered earlier this week. While he has been important to the team, he was one of that core that came up together not on a team-friendly, long term deal. What might have happened to any of those other three who came up through the minors with Eddie if they found themselves still in arbitration?
That is the question we will attempt to at least ponder, maybe answer, in what follows. First, as a base, here are some stats from each of the four over the past two seasons:
Miguel Sano
Sano is potentially one of the more interesting cases in this exercise. His contract number is already higher than what was Rosario’s projected arbitration (somewhere around $10 million) at $11 million. He also fills that heavy need of a right-handed power bat, but not without his own set of frustrations.
Sano at his best is smashing home runs with incredible exit velocities. He also represents 30+ home runs per season with a ceiling that looks much higher. His downgrades are that his defensive position is viewed as easily replaceable and he continues to strike out at a high clip. Since Rosario is sort of our baseline here, when comparing the two directly, Sano still gets on base more due in part to his ability to still draw walks.
If Sano was up for arbitration this season, his saving grace may be his potential and his handedness. Especially with Nelson Cruz potentially not coming back into the locker room next season. It very well seems possible that as good as Sano can be, a cheaper and more versatile player may be given the nod over Sano in order to save money to be used elsewhere.
Jorge Polanco
Polanco has shown the ability to be a plus offensive player at the prime position of shortstop. Although, his plus bat does come at the expense of some poor fielding. While his defense seems to be the biggest hit to Polanco’s resume, his ability to even be sub-par at shortstop is also his biggest plus. In the end, he can still line up at shortstop. There seems to still be faith in Polanco even after a bad offensive performance in 2020. Which may be chalked up to continued struggles with ankle injuries.
His down 2020 would have certainly hindered any increased earning Polanco may have gained via this fictitious arbitration process. Even with a healthy increase, Polanco’s flexibility plus his bat would have helped him remain on the Twins roster.
Best case in this scenario seems to be that Polanco would be tendered a contract and remain the Twins starting shortstop. Worst case may be something that is already being floated. Polanco is still tendered a contract and becomes the utility player for 2021. The Twins don’t have anyone readily available to replace what Polanco provides and are already trying to replace Marwin Gonzalez and Ehire Adrianza, so he would likely be safe.
Max Kepler
In light of Rosario’s non-tender, Kepler’s case becomes the most interesting. As you can see above, a lot of their offensive stats are pretty similar. Especially when it comes to some more traditional and counting stats. Rosario does find an edge in batting average and RBIs (although he was a cleanup hitter while Kepler was primarily leadoff), while Kepler takes that advantage in on-base percentage and walks.
If the situations were reversed this year, and Rosario had the team friendly contract while Kepler was up for a $10 million arbitration figure, it would not be crazy to have his name floated as a non-tender candidate because of the guys coming up behind him. The aspect of his game that separates Kepler from Rosario is his defense and that his walks help him be an offensive asset even when he isn’t getting hits.
Maybe I am letting my own preferences get in the way here, but Kepler seems like the sort of player a team like the Twins would want to hold on to. If the Twins didn’t in this made up scenario, it would truly be a sign of them needing to save money.
Sano potentially out. Polanco and Kepler stay. How do you think the Twins would handle tendering or non-tendering this trio of core players?
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