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  • A Solution for the Twins Outfield


    Ted Schwerzler

    The Minnesota Twins had to place Byron Buxton back on the disabled list as of May 30. Playing through a broken toe, the pain was simply too much to bear and the decision needed to be made. With center field now up for grabs at the big league level, there appears to be a set of players that could make a lot of sense.

    Image courtesy of © Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

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    First and foremost, the Buxton injury is unfortunate. Back when he first returned from the DL, I was on record as being fine with the decision to skip a rehab stint. Knowing full well that would negatively impact his hitting, the reality was that the outfield was a mess the more often they played without his defense. With the Twins having had the accurate information on the fracture far longer than the public , it’s irresponsible that Buxton was allowed to play despite not being able to swing comfortably. It’s one thing to play through pain, but Minnesota allowing Buxton to jeopardize himself further i\\was silly.

    What’s done is done at this point however, and Paul Molitor needs to move on with his lineup. The pitching has been there for this club most of the season, and it’s been the lineup that has simply fallen flat. What’s worse is that there aren’t going to be any promotions that immediately spark some sort of a turnaround. Sure, Nick Gordon could’ve (and should’ve) been promoted while Miguel Sano was on the DL. Outside of that though, the Minnesota doesn’t have any offensive impact prospects that present a groundbreaking opportunity.

    In the wake of Buxton’s injury, there is an opportunity to capitalize on a spark and provide potential future benefits however. Both Zack Granite and LaMonte Wade exist for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine.

    Following a similar thought process as to why Buxton was activated without a rehab stint, defense is obviously of integral importance for the Twins. Understandably, neither Wade nor Granite will be on par with the best defensive outfielder in the world, but they are also (specifically Granite) capable of playing at a high level on their own.

    The reality is that the Twins current roster construction forces journeyman Ryan LaMarre to either start in center on a regular basis, or pushes one of the corner guys over to accommodate Robbie Grossman playing in LF. The former option isn’t an awful one defensively, but there’s no upside. After a hot start, LaMarre has hit .111/.126/.111 in his last 31 plate appearances. On top of that, he’s 29 and not part of future plans. Looking at the latter option, there’s not much convincing that needs to take place to argue that Grossman doesn’t belong anywhere with a glove on.

    Both Granite and Wade have recently returned from time on the disabled list this season, and Zack is hardly producing at the level he displayed during 2017 at Triple A. With just a .206/.292/.224 slash line for Rochester, there’s a lot left to be desired from what Granite is currently doing. That said, it’s his approach that gives him a chance (9/13 K/BB), and he displayed an ability to at least handle big league pitching a season ago (40 G .237/.321/.290). Wade’s numbers are much more respectable (.295/.393/.439) but come at the Double-A level. The jump for a mid-tier prospect is a big one, and won’t come without hurdles.

    Regardless of what stock is put in either of Granite or Wade’s current numbers, future considerations make a move for one of them look so sensible. Either could slot in as a regular contributor on the 25-man roster in the next few years, and allowing them to get regular playing time while Byron is shelved seems like a no- brainer. Molitor’s current options leave a gaping hole in playing time, so neither prospect would be coming up simply to sit.

    It’d be somewhat foolish to expect Wade with his good numbers or Granite with his poor ones, to provide some sort of fix-it type spark to the Twins. Going forward though, there’s a significant benefit to getting them the reps currently doled out to LaMarre (or Grossman when he’s in RF) and watching them settle in against the best competition. Both players are on-base threats, and if they can push the envelope while Buxton is out, then you’ve got a decision to make on LaMarre or Grossman when Byron returns.

    At the end of the day, the Twins are doing themselves no favor by hoping Ryan LaMarre changes course on his career, while instead turning away from opportunities to challenge players with a potential future.

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    Back when he first returned from the DL, I was on record as being fine with the decision to skip a rehab stint. Knowing full well that would negatively impact his hitting, the reality was that the outfield was a mess the more often they played without his defense. With the Twins having had the accurate information on the fracture far longer than the public , it’s irresponsible that Buxton was allowed to play despite not being able to swing comfortably. It’s one thing to play through pain, but Minnesota allowing Buxton to jeopardize himself further i\\was silly.

    I find this to be rather revisionist.

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    It was pretty easy to see last offseason that a RH OF was a need... Instead they went with LaMarre who's had little to no success in the MLB.

    Can't say I'm shocked this isn't working out for the team.

     

    Who did you want them to go get? Look at the guys who signed this offseason, there wasn't anybody. The best of the bunch was Carlos Gomez and he was able to get a starting job in Tampa so there's little chance he'd come to the Twins even if they gave him more than $4 million.

     

    The reality is that finding a 4th OF means looking at guys like Cave, Lamarre, Grossman etc. If guys are good enough to be guaranteed solid OFs, their teams don't let go of them or they take starting jobs. The Twins have done remarkably well with Grossman and LaMarre in a short sample.

    Edited by ThejacKmp
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    The Twins should drop Peit and bring up Cave. They should platoon Cave and Lamarre and hope that works until Buxton is ready to come back. A righty 4th OF should be easier to grab at the deadline when teams are selling and guys welcome a trade to a contender even if it is a bit role (my hope is the Twins use the Hughes savings to take on McCutchen’s salary and get the Giants under the luxury task in exchange for a C prospect).

     

    The issue with that is it leaves you a bit short in the IF since Adrianza becomes the only backup for 2B, 3B and SS. It makes it tougher to DH Sano since an injury at 2B, SS or 3B means you either move Rosario in to 2B, try a backup catcher at 3B for an inning or two, or lose the DH. But that seems like an unlikely thing and it’s a short term thing until Polanco comes back in 25 games.

     

    Wade needs to play every day and should be up in AAA any day now. Granite never hit in the majors (.611 OPS) and doesn’t have a minor league track record that says that’s a SSS aberration (.770 at AAA, .729 at AA). Easily one of the more overrated “prospects”. I’m continually surprised he’s listed as one of MLB’s top 30 prospects. The draft should knock him off that list but his ceiling is 4th OF.

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    Who did you want them to go get? Look at the guys who signed this offseason, there wasn't anybody. The best of the bunch was Carlos Gomez and he was able to get a starting job in Tampa so there's little chance he'd come to the Twins even if they gave him more than $4 million.

     

    The reality is that finding a 4th OF means looking at guys like Cave, Lamarre, Grossman etc. If guys are good enough to be guaranteed solid OFs, their teams don't let go of them or they take starting jobs. The Twins have done remarkably well with Grossman and LaMarre in a short sample.

    They could have traded for one. If this is the window, then they need to be willing to trade prospects.

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    They could have traded for one. If this is the window, then they need to be willing to trade prospects.

     

    First of all, their window is just opening. Not time to worry about it closing. But even if it was closing:

    That's easier said than done. You have Buxton, Kepler, and Rosario who all are going to start. And coming up you have Kiriloff, Baddoo, Rooker, Davis, and Wade and maybe Lewis in the OF. So you’re going to have competition for 4th OF as soon as the second half of this season (Wade, Rooker).

     

    So you’re looking for someone who is an upgrade over Grossman and co. but who isn’t so good he’s going to block someone farther down the line. That’s a tough place to hit. Not to mention you’re giving up prospects to add to an area that looks to be a pretty considerable strength for the Twins going forward.

     

    Grossman isn’t amazing and LaMarre/Cave aren’t either but they’re likely a decent backup plan. You can’t anticipate all major injuries and the Twins are unlucky enough to have Mauer, Castro (Garver could have played RF) and Buxton all down at the same time. Mauer and Buck will be back soon, lightening the load for Grossman.

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    They could have traded for one. If this is the window, then they need to be willing to trade prospects.

    Is "window" a term this front office has used with any consistency, or it this how fans view the process based on other front offices? A tiny bit of web-searching didn't turn up Falvey talking about windows. What I can recall Falvey talking about is “long-term, sustainable, championship-caliber” when he was hired. (Similar quote here.) That's not necessarily at odds with trading prospects, but it's not especially congruent-sounding, either.

     

    They traded a lottery-ticket* pitcher to get Jake Cave. Someone of higher caliber would cost more than that. Would you trade Ben Rortvedt for a backup OF, for example? More importantly, if you forget about windows and focus on long-term sustainability, would most GMs?

     

    I have a feeling that this tangent may swamp the original topic. :)

     

    * By that I mean a player who hasn't even made it past short-season/rookie ball yet. Obviously no prospects are sure things. But then again, neither are established players - running a franchise involves weighing the relative risks...

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    Is "window" a term this front office has used with any consistency, or it this how fans view the process based on other front offices? A tiny bit of web-searching didn't turn up Falvey talking about windows. What I can recall Falvey talking about is “long-term, sustainable, championship-caliber” when he was hired. (Similar quote here.) That's not necessarily at odds with trading prospects, but it's not especially congruent-sounding, either.

     

    They traded a lottery-ticket* pitcher to get Jake Cave. Someone of higher caliber would cost more than that. Would you trade Ben Rortvedt for a backup OF, for example? More importantly, if you forget about windows and focus on long-term sustainability, would most GMs?

     

    I have a feeling that this tangent may swamp the original topic. :)

     

    * By that I mean a player who hasn't even made it past short-season/rookie ball yet. Obviously no prospects are sure things. But then again, neither are established players - running a franchise involves weighing the relative risks...

     

    Mid market teams can't compete for "the long term, forever"....they just can't. But yes, this is a tangent. there was actually recently an article on this on one of the sites....basically, to extend your window (and to have ultimate success) you need to spend more and more money.....

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    A RH hitting 4th OFer.

     

    We've been pretty clear on that.

     

    Again who?

     

    I'd like them to find a guy who throws 110 and doesn't need any rest but if I don't give you an example, I might as well be wishing for a my little pony.

     

    The 4th OF market was predictable bare this offseason. Not a lot of vets looking for any job and those that were hit LH. Hard to blame the Twins for not finding something that didn't really exist. Unless you have an idea?

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    Again who?

     

    I'd like them to find a guy who throws 110 and doesn't need any rest but if I don't give you an example, I might as well be wishing for a my little pony.

     

    The 4th OF market was predictable bare this offseason. Not a lot of vets looking for any job and those that were hit LH. Hard to blame the Twins for not finding something that didn't really exist. Unless you have an idea?

    Lefty mashing corner OFers are one of the more easily found commodities in MLB. IT didn't have to be a free agent, although Carlos Gomez was just about perfect.

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    Mid market teams can't compete for "the long term, forever"....they just can't. But yes, this is a tangent. there was actually recently an article on this on one of the sites....basically, to extend your window (and to have ultimate success) you need to spend more and more money.....

     

    They can. The Rays have a few down years from time to time but they don't ever rebuild or tear it down.

     

    The Cardinals aren't totally mid-market but they aren't the Yankees and they have been consistently competitive.

     

    I think that's a main issue: consistently competitive vs. all-in. The Cardinals showed that consistently competitive can yield some titles. The Rays showed that it can not. The Royals show that all-in can be great. The Padres, not so much.

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    Grossman is not a good 4th OF'er and his 2017 #'s .246/.721 are close to his career average. But I wouldn't call that a league average hitter. It's pretty obvious that 2016 was the aberration for Grossman, not 2018. 

    If you knock out the first three weeks of the season, Robbie Grossman has a .785 OPS and is an above-average hitter. I'm not saying that's a fair way to look at him but I think we should wait a bit longer to say he's 2017 and not 2016.

    Edited by ThejacKmp
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    Lefty mashing corner OFers are one of the more easily found commodities in MLB. IT didn't have to be a free agent, although Carlos Gomez was just about perfect.

     

    Name one who was available. You keep saying they're there but don't provide a name.

    As stated, Carlos Gomez got a deal as a starter. He's not going to come to MN to be a 4th OF unless you give him a lot more money (like $8 million instead of $4 million) or multiple years. And even if you got him, not sure he hits much more than Grossman. This year he has a .624 OPS with a .632 OPS vs. lefties. Last year he hit .645 vs. lefties. Likely a better fielder than Grossman but Granite can do those numbers.

     

    My point is that shopping for 4th OF puts you in bargain bin territory. Good players get starting jobs or are under team control and are expensive and don't make sense for a Twins farm system relatively loaded with outfield talent.

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    Name one who was available. You keep saying they're there but don't provide a name.

    As stated, Carlos Gomez got a deal as a starter. He's not going to come to MN to be a 4th OF unless you give him a lot more money (like $8 million instead of $4 million) or multiple years. And even if you got him, not sure he hits much more than Grossman. This year he has a .624 OPS with a .632 OPS vs. lefties. Last year he hit .645 vs. lefties. Likely a better fielder than Grossman but Granite can do those numbers.

     

    My point is that shopping for 4th OF puts you in bargain bin territory. Good players get starting jobs or are under team control and are expensive and don't make sense for a Twins farm system relatively loaded with outfield talent.

     

    The Twins have Wade, Cave, Granite all in AAA (or should be).....they couldn't find one RH OF to trade for? I just don't buy that. And no, I don't have a list of the RH OF in AA and AAA to tell you who.....

     

    It's not crucial.....but it also wouldn't be expensive to find a RH OF that they think is a 4th OF (and maybe LaMarre remarkably becomes so, against years of minor league data saying otherwise, which would be great).

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