A Former Insider's Thoughts on Losing the Big Fish

Interesting take.  I personally think Correa was honest in his comments about the team and area, but unlike Buck, he didn't grow up in this organization, so any thoughts that one year here would cause him to give a hometown discount were misplaced. He did what almost anyone would do in his situation--he took the extra 65 million dollars.  My problem with the FO is that they should know that as well, and should not let many quality players come off the board while they are waiting for Correa.  It is hard to pivot in free agency when very few quality players are left.  By playing a waiting game, they missed other opportunities to improve the club.  If you are going to be "disciplined" and not expand the budget for an extrordinary player, then move on immediately and work other angles while players are still available.  Frankly, trading for Mahle and Paddack when one was experiencing a shoulder issue in the current season, and the other was having issues after one TJ surgery is not a sign they are aggressive, it is a sign they are foolish and not disciplined.  It is much like the additions of Happ, Shoemaker, Hill, Bailey, Archer, and Bundy.  They did nothing to improve the team.  My Dad always told me "buy quality tools even if they cost more because they will last longer and do a better job."  I think this FO should take his advice to heart.  

Really appreciate the insight! Thanks for the thoughtful analysis!  As a fan\arm chair GM I wasn't enamored with even a ten year deal for Correa and yes I am one of those posters who didn't think 285M would get it done and it didn't. 

I don't know if you can call even 285M for 10 years disciplined as even that contract was not likely to age well and yet they offered it, but yes in general I believe this FO has been disciplined in there financial approach.  Sticking with shorter term contracts and trading for the talent they need.

I thought they were pretty aggressive trying to get starting pitching last year but they got burned by the pen early in the season and the offense never really did click all that well last season,  Still they were in first place for the majority of the year but for as close as the club house was they never really gelled results wise on the field.

I don't know if not getting Correa or Rodon are the be all end all for this team.  They need better starting pitching and a more consistent pen and I think they can compete with anyone.  Thanks again for giving your perspective!  It is nice to get a feel for what it feels like inside a FO.

Thank you Jack. Your article was very interesting. I sincerely appreciate your writing it.

Months ago, I thought that Correa/Boras would want to beat the contract that Lindor signed with the Mets. It seemed rational from my perspective. It also seems like there could have been a direct conversation with Correa about his goals and aspirations concerning a contract. If Falvey knew the parameters, the contracts of Turner and Bogearts should have led to a new understanding. Standing pat doesn't really count as disciplined if the player matters. Now if the Twins were only in on Correa for a deal, then it makes sense to throw the hope offer out there. I don't get upset in any way at the loss of Correa. I do get a little annoyed at the gap between the Twins bids and the winning numbers. 

Cleveland has built a really fun team. The Twins need to adjust in 2023 to address the lack of fundamentals and boring play (station to station) or the lack of fans at Target Field will push the team in an entirely different direction. As someone said earlier, buy good tools.

First, I want to thank Jack for his time and his insight! Wonderful! Yet another example of the tremendous work done by TD!

I also want to give kudos to Ash for his post, graph, and work he put in. Some great comments and we'll done sir! (As always)!

I fully understand and appreciate the poignant and somewhat loaded comment of: "They aren't cheap-they are disciplined". Personally, even though I've disagreed with certain aspects of moves, lack of, or payroll, I've never believed ownership was "cheap". They have invested in foreign academies, albeit with other organizations. They built a wonderful Ft Myers complex for ST and their lower level affiliates and the players involved. They've sustained the cost for various changes and improvements in Target Field at times. 

"Disciplined" to me can also mean "frugal". And neither is a bad word. I could add "responsible" . Again, nothing wrong with that. In the ordinary world of business, ownership that IS NOT disciplined, frugal, responsible, ends up with a business that usually fails.

But MLB is not a normal business. Even in the NFL, with salary caps and salary floors, ownership can still make a difference in spending $ for quality FO personnel to run their team to build a competitive and winning team. And if you aren't smart in your hires, and don't spend $ to put together a FO and coaching staff of quality, you flounder.

But again, MLB remains very different until/unless major changes happen on some fantasy day where revenue sharing is equal and there is more equilibrium in the sport.

I am disappointed Correa isn't a Twin. But I never expected him to be one. We can argue back and forth all day long about the Twins initial offer, vs being higher, or jumping once they saw how the market had dramatically changed during this offseason. There ARE organizations, mostly the top 5-8 market wise, that could actually afford to make the kind of move the Giants did, and absorb the spread out losses they will/would incure over time. The Twins are not one of them. And we could argue a team or two, Padres, who's ownership couldn't seem to give a damn if they make a $1 profit, just give me a winner! 

The Twins payroll was SET to make a major move like this for Correa, even if they front loaced the dezl, gave him options and control, and offered up a second option of $315-320. The Giants just said, "what the hell", and still blew that kind of offer away. They can afford to do that, theoretically.  Can you imagine ANY mid market team matching that kind of offer? The Cardinals might be the best run mid market franchise in all of MLB, and have been for decades. They are what I, as a fan, aspire the Twins to be if they can boost income through media deals and the such to meet their $170-180M payroll. But can you imagine them doing $350M for one player?

Forgetting, for a moment, about the vast disparities in finances between the top clubs. The Twins, for once, had the opportunity to make a MAJOR statement going forward. Would Correa have "settled" for $315-320 if offered? We'll never know. I'm betting not due to ego, Boras, etc.

I don't hate our FO for missing out on this crazy deal for a very good player. I don't hate our ownership for maybe wanting Correa more than the the FO. I don't hate them for being disciplined or frugal in their approach to build the team and the organization as a whole. And I don't hate them for all the improvements they've made in the system and their forward thinking. What I DO object to is swimming in the deep end not knowing how to swim, or looking for a logical life preserver.

Re-do your TV and radio deals. DON'T sit on your hands to do nothing when opportunity presents itself to add a player or two who could make a difference to push your team forward. DO push payroll forward to keep what you have and make those couple moves that can make a difference here and there. I don't expect a $200M payroll. 

They need to develop their talent. They need to trade smart here and there.  They also need to re-sign what they have. Thats how you achieve consistency. But they also need to accept dipping their toes in the FA pool once in a while to add. Being disciplined/frugal/responsible is great. It should keep you from making major mistakes. But you also have to stretch your payroll once in a while to actuality be competitive. 

I'm not speaking about Correa right now. I'm talking about tomorrow. 

Thanks Jack for portraying a view that is outside of ours and doing it concisely.  You make great points that help us to see what goes into this stuff from a FO, agent, and player perspective.

Any negativity on this forum is mostly due to us being true fans and wanting the best for our team.  I'm confident that in the end this FO will find a way to make us better.

Why would top free agents sign with the Twins? Even if they do get a good contract they know they'll be the only star player on the team. The alternative is playing for a team with multiple stars on one of the coasts with much better endorsement opportunities.

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Also, how many playoff games has this org won in the last 30 years? Is this approach working?

I’m not debating the approach. That’s a separate discussion. I just was trying to give some potential insight on how it went down based off experience and possibly what their thought process may have been. I don’t have any info other than what I’ve observed and been through.

Well Rodon is gone, you can scratch him off the list.....

Thank you, Jack

7 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

My analogy is for the corporate 9-5 desk warriors out there. Falvey and Levine thought throwing a pizza party and saying “We’re a family here!” was enough to retain an employee vs. paying them what their market rate is. Sorry, millenials and especially Gen Z sees right through that. 

Most anybody sees through insincerity  Explain the why Buxton, Pplanco, Kepler and Sanyo all signed team friendly deals

2 hours ago, Squirrel said:

 

Perhaps I’ve just cherry-picked your thoughtful response to this situation, but I keep coming back to these two points. They knew they had to keep it close, yet they were no where near close. And they knew Boras, where the highest bid wins (most of the time), yet we were so far from it. I get the disciplined part, too. But they were just so far off the mark. And yet we outsiders had a better sense of what it would take. Many here wouldn’t have gone that high, some would, but we all had a better sense than 285/10. We saw what other SS were paid both this and last off season. I have a difficult time accepting this is just a disciplined approach. I don’t doubt their sincerity in wanting to do a good job. I understand how it feels when outsiders judge your work when they have little to no understanding of what you do and how it all works. But how could they seriously not know they were so far off the mark? This leaves me, the fan, defeated and wondering if we will ever have a winning team again. We are left with development and trade as a means to an end, and it will never be enough in this environment. We may get lucky and one year just have that ‘special’ team, when it all just clicks, but that is too much hope. I’ll keep watching, sort of, but winning matters in the end. And disciplined is just not going to win.

10 and 285 is one less year than Turner got. It is not far off the benchmark of that contract when many to most evaluations put Turner ahead of Correa. What is not known is what happened between offer and signing. No party is going to say anything that shows the other party in a bad light. They will all need each other again.

13 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Most anybody sees through insincerity  Explain the why Buxton, Pplanco, Kepler and Sanyo all signed team friendly deals

Buxton is the only one that took a team-friendly deal, and with his injury history it made sense. The other guys were all unproven and under team control for years and thus took moderate deals in exchange for security. 

If you aren't prepared to swim, then don't pretend you know how to get around in the deep end just for show.  There just isn't a "cute lifeguard" option for the ending of this movie.

37 minutes ago, Taildragger8791 said:

Buxton is the only one that took a team-friendly deal, and with his injury history it made sense. The other guys were all unproven and under team control for years and thus took moderate deals in exchange for security. 

They all are team friendly deals. All are deals based on past work and future potential just like a free agent contract. Just like a free agent contract, not all worked out as planned. Just ask the most expensive AAA player Mr Dobnak

11 hours ago, DocBauer said:

First, I want to thank Jack for his time and his insight! Wonderful! Yet another example of the tremendous work done by TD!

I also want to give kudos to Ash for his post, graph, and work he put in. Some great comments and we'll done sir! (As always)!

I fully understand and appreciate the poignant and somewhat loaded comment of: "They aren't cheap-they are disciplined". Personally, even though I've disagreed with certain aspects of moves, lack of, or payroll, I've never believed ownership was "cheap". They have invested in foreign academies, albeit with other organizations. They built a wonderful Ft Myers complex for ST and their lower level affiliates and the players involved. They've sustained the cost for various changes and improvements in Target Field at times. 

"Disciplined" to me can also mean "frugal". And neither is a bad word. I could add "responsible" . Again, nothing wrong with that. In the ordinary world of business, ownership that IS NOT disciplined, frugal, responsible, ends up with a business that usually fails.

But MLB is not a normal business. Even in the NFL, with salary caps and salary floors, ownership can still make a difference in spending $ for quality FO personnel to run their team to build a competitive and winning team. And if you aren't smart in your hires, and don't spend $ to put together a FO and coaching staff of quality, you flounder.

But again, MLB remains very different until/unless major changes happen on some fantasy day where revenue sharing is equal and there is more equilibrium in the sport.

I am disappointed Correa isn't a Twin. But I never expected him to be one. We can argue back and forth all day long about the Twins initial offer, vs being higher, or jumping once they saw how the market had dramatically changed during this offseason. There ARE organizations, mostly the top 5-8 market wise, that could actually afford to make the kind of move the Giants did, and absorb the spread out losses they will/would incure over time. The Twins are not one of them. And we could argue a team or two, Padres, who's ownership couldn't seem to give a damn if they make a $1 profit, just give me a winner! 

The Twins payroll was SET to make a major move like this for Correa, even if they front loaced the dezl, gave him options and control, and offered up a second option of $315-320. The Giants just said, "what the hell", and still blew that kind of offer away. They can afford to do that, theoretically.  Can you imagine ANY mid market team matching that kind of offer? The Cardinals might be the best run mid market franchise in all of MLB, and have been for decades. They are what I, as a fan, aspire the Twins to be if they can boost income through media deals and the such to meet their $170-180M payroll. But can you imagine them doing $350M for one player?

Forgetting, for a moment, about the vast disparities in finances between the top clubs. The Twins, for once, had the opportunity to make a MAJOR statement going forward. Would Correa have "settled" for $315-320 if offered? We'll never know. I'm betting not due to ego, Boras, etc.

I don't hate our FO for missing out on this crazy deal for a very good player. I don't hate our ownership for maybe wanting Correa more than the the FO. I don't hate them for being disciplined or frugal in their approach to build the team and the organization as a whole. And I don't hate them for all the improvements they've made in the system and their forward thinking. What I DO object to is swimming in the deep end not knowing how to swim, or looking for a logical life preserver.

Re-do your TV and radio deals. DON'T sit on your hands to do nothing when opportunity presents itself to add a player or two who could make a difference to push your team forward. DO push payroll forward to keep what you have and make those couple moves that can make a difference here and there. I don't expect a $200M payroll. 

They need to develop their talent. They need to trade smart here and there.  They also need to re-sign what they have. Thats how you achieve consistency. But they also need to accept dipping their toes in the FA pool once in a while to add. Being disciplined/frugal/responsible is great. It should keep you from making major mistakes. But you also have to stretch your payroll once in a while to actuality be competitive. 

I'm not speaking about Correa right now. I'm talking about tomorrow. 

 

Great post Doc.

Winning the World Series is the goal.  Houston just proved that a good team does not need Correa to win it all.  

4 hours ago, Squirrel said:

 

Perhaps I’ve just cherry-picked your thoughtful response to this situation, but I keep coming back to these two points. They knew they had to keep it close, yet they were no where near close. And they knew Boras, where the highest bid wins (most of the time), yet we were so far from it. I get the disciplined part, too. But they were just so far off the mark. And yet we outsiders had a better sense of what it would take. Many here wouldn’t have gone that high, some would, but we all had a better sense than 285/10. We saw what other SS were paid both this and last off season. I have a difficult time accepting this is just a disciplined approach. I don’t doubt their sincerity in wanting to do a good job. I understand how it feels when outsiders judge your work when they have little to no understanding of what you do and how it all works. But how could they seriously not know they were so far off the mark? This leaves me, the fan, defeated and wondering if we will ever have a winning team again. We are left with development and trade as a means to an end, and it will never be enough in this environment. We may get lucky and one year just have that ‘special’ team, when it all just clicks, but that is too much hope. I’ll keep watching, sort of, but winning matters in the end. And disciplined is just not going to win.

I really am glad that Falvine does not tell all the details of his negotiations. I feel that is more professional on their part, even when there is widespread public interest in wanting to know all the details. 

Loved the article.  Well done.  I never liked the Correa signing in the first place.  We all need he would only be here one year.  Then as a baseball community he and Boras played us.  That was predictable as well.  What is frustrating is that the Twins let themselves be played.  Yes I'm not concerned with not signing Correa.  He was a list cause since day one.  I am concerned with this FO again messing around and waiting until too late to sign people we need for other positions.  This has been their method of operation since they came on board.  What we have now is another year of boring, uninspired, and undisciplined baseball to look forward to.  Not because we didn't sign Correa but that at this point haven't signed any meaningful players to fill all the holes on this team.

11 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Also, how many playoff games has this org won in the last 30 years? Is this approach working?

No.  Instead of getting better at the practices that have proven the most effective, let's follow strategies that have never been effective for teams in the bottom half of revenue.  Perhaps we should more carefully examine what has worked for other teams.  You say this approach but do you know the biggest difference between Cleveland / Tampa / Oaklands and Minnesota?