A Central Of Historic Proportions

White Sox are the only team that could be below .500 and not lose 90.  Twins have a chance with this division to win between 45 - 50 of the games played in the Central.  That is a very good base and with a couple of east teams maybe tanking after June it will depend on when and where we play the other teams.  Yes with a major pitching upgrade this team should win 90.  Just worried that without it we may win 85 - 87 and be on the outside looking in and wasting a year of our talent.

We could have 2 100 game winners and losers as well.

 

I'd be pretty shocked if the Twins win 100

 

I'd be shocked if they won 85 again.

Good speculation, but too early.  I think we can safely put Detroit in the doldrums, after all they hired a manager who specializes in big loss teams, but Chicago could surprise and maybe KC will do something yet.  

 

130 FA unsigned, spring training ahead, rookies can still surprise, injuries can upset plans, and trades can reset teams.  I agree that we look really good right now and I do think that Cleveland is substantially injured by the events so far, but, as fun as it is, I cannot project anything yet. 

The White Sox could indeed be the surprise team this year, at least one that could play .500 ball. I don't think they are ready for the playoffs by any means, but I don't think they'll be quite as bad as they were last year. I still can't figure out what's going to happen in Detroit. My guess is that they are cellar dwellers this year, but hey, it's baseball and anything can happen. Which is as it should be!

I don't see it. The Central will probably be the mediocre division that it always is. In the AL, most of the capital is in the East, and the West is always interesting down the stretch.

 

The Twins and Indians should lead the division this year.  I think the Royals will be awful.  The Tigers might manage to be average.  I'd say watch out for the White Sox in the 2nd half of the year, especially after they bring up Kopech and Jiménez.  Moncada has the chance to be a monster this year.  Giolito is very good.  Rodon should be good when he returns if he's healthy.

Excellent point.   I too agree that Chicago will most likely be far scrappier than projected, but at the same time the team is so green that I can't help but feel they will wear down considerably as the season progresses.

The central will be pretty bad. The Indians should be solid again. With that rotation, barring injury, not much question there.

 

The Twins will have a hard time replicating what was done last year. Santana surely won't be as good as he was during the first half. The bullpen is improved slightly, but still not a lockdown pen by any means. They probably won't get the insane streaks simultaneously (Roasario, Buxton, Dozier, and Polanco), and who knows what's happening with Sano.

 

I'm anticipating fewer wins. I also anticipate more competition for that second wildcard spot. One of the two will come out of the east for sure (with Boston and New York). The second will almost certainly come out of the west (with Houston, an improved LA squad with a healthy Trout, and Seattle).

 

As it stands now, I find it difficult to see it shaking out any differently. I'm not sure anything short of signing Darvish could turn the tables to the Twins favor.

 

I'd be shocked if they won 85 again.

Really? In the second half, with 412 runs scored to 325 runs allowed, the Twins played at a 100-win pace by Pythagorean Record. That doesn't mean they'll win 100 games in 2018, but I certainly expect them to clear 85 wins.

 

What was their first half pythag?

Bad--a full-season pace of 70-92. How much that matters depends on whether you think the second half surges from players like Buxton, Polanco, and Rosario represented young guys developing vs. guys punching way above their weight.

 

Really? In the second half, with 412 runs scored to 325 runs allowed, the Twins played at a 100-win pace by Pythagorean Record. That doesn't mean they'll win 100 games in 2018, but I certainly expect them to clear 85 wins.

 

 

What was their actual record in the second half?

 

 

 

What was their actual record in the second half?

They had a .541 winning % in the 2nd half.  A seasonal .541 winning % is like 87 or 88 wins.

Edited February 3, 2018 by jimmer

We could have 2 100 game winners and losers as well.

Twins ain't winning 100

Bad--a full-season pace of 70-92. How much that matters depends on whether you think the second half surges from players like Buxton, Polanco, and Rosario represented young guys developing vs. guys punching way above their weight.

Or if the second half was played against mostly teams with subpar records. I know you have to play em sometime, but IIRC the schedule ended up tilted that way.

Considering the boost both Detroit and Kansas City need in terms of prospects, landing a stud at 1/1 could be more than appealing. The game as a whole has trended towards a tank philosophy in that the have-nots simply look for the quickest route to add an influx of controllable talent.

I don't think tanking for the first pick in the baseball draft is really worth it. Basketball, yes. Football and hockey, probably. Baseball, no. You can certainly wind up with a top-flight player like the Nationals did two years in a row with Strasburg and Harper. But as this list will show, it's also very easy to select a journeyman or worse.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_first_overall_Major_League_Baseball_draft_picks

I’m just not sure 90 games won guarantees an AL wildcard

In the six years of the two-wild-card format the number of wins for the second AL team have been 93, 92, 88, 86, 89, 85. I think 90 could do it because teams from other divisions will play more difficult schedules than Cleveland and Minnesota.

I was reading Fangraphs today and thought this article was pertinent to this Article - https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/here-are-the-complete-five-year-win-forecasts/ "The Royals are tied for seventh in baseball in wins over the past five years, but, over the next five years, they’re ranked 28th, between the Orioles and Tigers."

I think the White Sox are going to surprise, as much as that pains me to say. I think they'll bounce to 72+ wins.

 

I also think the Twins are going to surprise, and challenge Cleveland for the division.

 

The rest, meh, whatever. Kansas City is maybe a 73-74 win team if you squint. Detroit is... just bad.

That means three 90-loss teams in the division. If that's the case the Twins should be able to hit 90 wins simply by playing .500 baseball outside the division.