4 Surprising Observations from Minnesota's Arm Strength Leaderboard

Wow, I had the impression that Correa had the best arm strength. I believe Arraez is underrated at 2B and that is where he will end up.

Celestino - just needs to use his arm strength wisely and hit cutoffs more often. Maybe we should be trying him out as a pitcher.................

Love your article, Cody. I really like statcast (to hep measure range & arm strength) in which it help support our eye test. These results are astounding! #1 Celestino defense is underrated, his arm strength is surprising. #2 Arraez arm strength is even more surprising, My take is that they should work with Arraez more at 3B, so we have Kiriloff at 1B, Polanco at 2B & Arraez at 3B for RHPs. My guess would be Buxton & Correa 1 & 2. How did Jeffers rate?

Statcast should be used much more to evalute defensive skills & increase more the value of defensive WAR.

38 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Wow, I had the impression that Correa had the best arm strength. I believe Arraez is underrated at 2B and that is where he will end up.

Celestino - just needs to use his arm strength wisely and hit cutoffs more often. Maybe we should be trying him out as a pitcher.................

2B is exactly where Arraez shouldn't be. You don't need an arm at 2B, you need range. And that where Arraez absolutely sucks. Even with the extreme shift, GBs would easily get by him. Now with the shift banned, it'd be disasterous with Arraez at 2B. 

Celestino is still basically a rookie, Not hitting a cutoff man is a rookie mistake which can easily be resolved,

It is always fun to see things that challenge our viewpoint. I do like the idea of Arraez at third base. I hope that celestino continues to be our bench our fielder and ready to jump in when Buxton goes back to the hospital. After watching the Houston Astros and their rookie shortstop defeat Seattle last night I have to shake my head at how much we're paying Correa. 

This sort of metric is a decent tool, but you need to be realistic about its limitations.

Celestino definitely has a good arm, but that is only as useful the smarts about where to throw it. Celestino isn't 'basically a rookie' any more. He is young but got serious play in '21 (when he WAS a rookie and one that essentially jumped from AA), and was a pretty standard fixture this year. And he still makes  brutal mistakes (mis-directed throws, and some of the worst base-running I've ever seen from a fast runner in my decades of watching baseball). He is either un-coachable, or badly coached (I honestly don't know which, because he isn't the only bad base runner). His elite arm should start next season at AAA until the rest of his game is ready.

To me, Correa generally threw the ball as hard as it needed to be thrown with a pretty high and accurate ceiling. This metric doesn't really account for that as is implied by the statement the Twins' shifts may have played a part in the results.

Arraez's arm may be strong, and maybe the arm is under-served at 1B, but a) his fielding at 3B was a bit ragged, and b) he has a long history of leg issues; issues probably minimized this year in part by playing a position requiring less mobility. Playing him more at 2B and 3B might mean more IL time keeping his true asset (the bat) out of the lineup.

Not a shock about Byron who shows if you have the tools to get to the ball, and know where to throw it, you can make this metric look good.

17 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

This sort of metric is a decent tool, but you need to be realistic about its limitations.

Celestino definitely has a good arm, but that is only as useful the smarts about where to throw it. Celestino isn't 'basically a rookie' any more. He is young but got serious play in '21 (when he WAS a rookie and one that essentially jumped from AA), and was a pretty standard fixture this year. And he still makes  brutal mistakes (mis-directed throws, and some of the worst base-running I've ever seen from a fast runner in my decades of watching baseball). He is either un-coachable, or badly coached (I honestly don't know which, because he isn't the only bad base runner). His elite arm should start next season at AAA until the rest of his game is ready.

To me, Correa generally threw the ball as hard as it needed to be thrown with a pretty high and accurate ceiling. This metric doesn't really account for that as is implied by the statement the Twins' shifts may have played a part in the results.

Arraez's arm may be strong, and maybe the arm is under-served at 1B, but a) his fielding at 3B was a bit ragged, and b) he has a long history of leg issues; issues probably minimized this year in part by playing a position requiring less mobility. Playing him more at 2B and 3B might mean more IL time keeping his true asset (the bat) out of the lineup.

Not a shock about Byron who shows if you have the tools to get to the ball, and know where to throw it, you can make this metric look good.

This is spot on particularly about Celestino. Experienced shortstops throw the ball as hard as they need to. 

Just because you can throw hard doesn't mean you know where to throw it or that you can throw it accurately.

Celestino can't seem to control his thoughts. Before every pitch a player needs to know how they will react to the subsequent action. Gilberto gets overly excited and imagines himself as Superman with his running and throws. Hopefully this can be contained and Celestino can allow his physical talents to achieve success.

Correa is a classic shortstop. He gets to a ton of balls and makes the throw needed for every play. He reminds me of Roy Smalley.

Arraez is such a fun player to watch at the plate. Arraez is not fun to watch in the field. Despite the comments from Baldelli and many fans supporting  our batting champ's glove, I'm comfortable in saying that Arraez has not shown himself to be adequate in the field. I'm conflicted as to where he can play or how Luis returns the most value to the Twins. I do wonder if he could be traded for something wonderful.

I can explain Arraez's arm strength. The 90.2 MPH is actually from 2021 when he was playing far more LF. Statcast pointed out that outfielders naturally have stronger arms than infielders because they have to make longer throws, so Arraez's arm strength is skewed. That's reaffirmed because his 2022 arm strength was 82.7 MPH where he exclusively played 1B and 2B. He didn't lose arm strength, he just played two positions where he didn't need to show it off as much.

Regardless, this is the Cuddyer/Sano argument all over again. A strong arm isn't as helpful if you don't have the range for a more demanding position. Just because Arraez has a strong-ish arm doesn't mean it makes up for his other defensive deficiencies.

Why am I not enthralled with grading an infielders' arm strength?

OK, let's say for the sake of argument that Arraez' arm strength is above average. But the problem is that his range isn't, his glove isn't, and his speed isn't. With Sano probably gone, and with Buxton, Kiriloff, and Larnach healthy (I hope) I'd like to see him DHing and leading off almost every game.

4 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

I'd like to see him DHing and leading off almost every game.

Yes, many people would like Arraez as a DH. That group of folks does not include Arraez. He hates being a DH. 

5 hours ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Why am I not enthralled with grading an infielders' arm strength?

I can't explain it for you, but for me, they were underwhelming because it seemed like the strongest arms were throwing much harder than they really were. Knowing that Carlos Correa's top 5% of 2022 throws averaged 88.0 MPH just doesn't feel impressive, likely because we're used to pitchers hitting 95+ MPH with ease nowadays. Then again, the counterargument is that the strongest throwers often get converted into pitchers, leaving a weaker subset behind. 

10 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Yes, many people would like Arraez as a DH. That group of folks does not include Arraez. He hates being a DH. 

If I were a major leaguer I'd want to play in the field too. But a player still has to do what's best for the team, and what's best for the team is to have its least-skilled fielder serving as DH. And of the organization's top players, that man is probably Arraez. I'm sorry, but that's just how it is.

1 hour ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I think the best thing for the team is to pen Arraez into the lineup as leadoff hitter and second baseman. 

Luis Arraez totally agrees with this statement. However, a healthy Jorge Polanco is a better player in the field, on the bases, and at the plate. So there is the dilemma and the answer to why Luis Arraez played first base so often this season.

Can the team benefit from a trade of one of these two players? Both are very talented and exciting players who could be amazing for years. Both have injury backgrounds and questions about health. This is an example of where Falvey proves he is capable (or not).

Good to know that Celestino has a lot of mustard on his throws. Makes them travel farther when he overthrows the cut off man. 

On 10/17/2022 at 12:29 AM, Andrew Bryz-Gornia said:

I can't explain it for you, but for me, they were underwhelming because it seemed like the strongest arms were throwing much harder than they really were. Knowing that Carlos Correa's top 5% of 2022 throws averaged 88.0 MPH just doesn't feel impressive, likely because we're used to pitchers hitting 95+ MPH with ease nowadays. Then again, the counterargument is that the strongest throwers often get converted into pitchers, leaving a weaker subset behind. 

Correa's max arm strength was 95 mph, 5th in the majors this year among IF only guys (max velo OF throws are much different since guys get a lot more momentum behind them).

His arm was as good as expected if you look at the right stat.

Comparing to pitcher velocity is tough but my guess is if you add a few MPH for infielders and subtract a few for outfielders you would probably end up around what they could do off of a mound, so I'm guessing Correa probably could hit 98 off the mound which is right up there among some very hard throwing pitchers.

On 10/16/2022 at 2:00 PM, Andrew Bryz-Gornia said:

Statcast pointed out that outfielders naturally have stronger arms than infielders because they have to make longer throws

It's a totally different throw. Different mechanics.