3 X-Factors for the 2021 Twins

For this exercise, I looked at the 90th percentile outcomes for the Twins. Baseball Prospectus’ famous PECOTA projections has a tool to see the upside of players. Who, at their 90th percentile of production can make the biggest impact for the Twins?

BYRON BUXTON

90th percentile: 127 G, .268/.333/.515 (.848 OPS), 26 HR, 5.18 WARP

Buxton’s recent power advances have furthered his upside, which was already enormous. He’s slugged a ridiculous .534 over the last two seasons with 60 extra-base hits in 126 games. He saved more runs defensively than any centerfielder in baseball in 2020, despite playing in only 39 of 60 games.

Buxton also led the Twins in bWAR (2.1) and was on pace to be a 7-win player over 130 games. The Twins have had just seven 7-win hitters in team history: Rod Carew (three times), Kirby Puckett (twice), Tony Oliva, Joe Mauer, Zoilo Versalles, Bob Allison and Chuck Knoblauch.

No one with less 300 games played since 2017 has more bWAR than Buxton (9.8). He played in 65% of games in 2020, his most since 2017 when he appeared in 140 and finished 18th for A.L. MVP on mostly defense alone.

There’s legitimate reason to believe Buxton’s power is here to stay, too:

Buxton is in his prime. His health is massively important to the Twins in 2021. He can be the difference between 90 and 100 wins. He can be the difference between a first round exit and a World Series title. He’s *that* much of an elite talent.

MIGUEL SANÓ

90th percentile: 144 G, .272/.375/.579 (.954 OPS), 38 HR, 5.05 WARP

Even if he regresses some, Nelson Cruz should again be an anchor in 2021. Josh Donaldson will produce when healthy. Mitch Garver and Ryan Jeffers will be a formidable offensive duo. The real right-handed wild card is Sanó. The lineup could middle or thrive depending on his production.

PECOTA confirms what we know: he carries massive upside. This ridiculous .954 OPS is just 31 points lower than Sanó’s OPS in 2019, when he hit 34 homers in just 105 games. Sanó was putting together a really strong 2020 season after a slow start, hitting .248/.347/.552 with 18 extra-base hits in 32 games through Aug. 31.

He then went 12-for-81 (.148) to finish the season. He struck out in 46% of his plate appearances and walked just three times. Sanó's highs are very high and his lows can be very low. If he has more peaks than valleys in 2021, the Twins will benefit greatly.

MICHAEL PINEDA

24 GS, 131 IP, 2.66 ERA, 10.1 K/9, 1.99 WARP

PECOTA is beyond bullish on Kenta Maeda for 2021, projecting his 50th percentile ERA to be worse than *only* Jacob deGrom and Clayton Kershaw. The system likes José Berríos as a top 30 to 35 starter. The Twins hope both those projections are true and that J.A. Happ and Randy Dobnak will eat quality innings on the back end.

The ace in the hole could be "Big Mike." Pineda was fantastic in his final 14 starts of 2019. He posted a 2.96 ERA and held opponents to a .650 OPS. He continued that excellence into five September starts in 2020.

https://twitter.com/Nashwalker9/status/1329509334049574921?s=20

If he can pitch like that over a full season, the Twins will boast a very good top three for the playoffs. Pineda’s health and production is key to how the rotation holds up in 2021.

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