3 Options for Josh Winder in the Second Half

Winder = starter. And if Ober can join the rotation, move Archer and Bundy to the bullpen since they can only pitch 4 innings anyway. Boom! Solved it!

I’ve been wondering if service time manipulation is going to come into play, especially because he started the year in the majors. I’m guessing Winder gets sent down once Ober returns both to conserve some innings on on his innings limit and to gain an extra year of service time. 

I would leave Winder in the rotation for the rest of the season, recognizing that he is probably going to need at least one IL "rest" stint to keep his innings closer to 100-120 for the season. We are going to need him as a starter next year and I think that's the role in which he has thrived.

I think the move when Ober is ready to rejoin the rotation after the All Star break is to move Smeltzer to the bullpen. I also think that Archer could be a real weapon in the bullpen if he would be willing to give that role a shot as a late inning guy. I don't know that he is ready for that psychologically though. If he is, when Ober is ready to come back I would put Smeltzer in the bullpen as a long man (along with  Cotton), and put Archer in the late inning mix. I would then upgrade with at least one trade for quality seventh or eighth inning guy, essentially make Duran the closer, and fill on from there. You would have two multi-inning guys in Smeltzer and Cotton, one left-handed, one right-handed, and a late inning mix of Archer, Duran, someone we trade for, and Duffy. Smeltzer fills the 6th starter injury fill in role. That means that one or two of Pagan, Megill.  Theilbar and Moran can't be part of the bullpen, two if you trade for someone. I think the right answer is that you try to get someone to take Pagan as part of a trade package, keep Theilbar as a lefty, and Megill and Moran are part of the St. Paul shuttle as they have options. This assumes we trade for at least one quality reliever. If we don't, both stay. If Archer isn't willing to go to the bullpen or the team really wants to keep him as a starter for future, that I would move Bundy to that role. I also think he could do well as a late inning reliever, again if he's willing to do it. 

My guess Winder stays starting either here or in AAA.  I doubt they move him to relief roll. 

19 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

put Archer in the late inning mix. ..... If Archer isn't willing to go to the bullpen or the team really wants to keep him as a starter for future, that I would move Bundy to that role. I also think he could do well as a late inning reliever, again if he's willing to do it. 

At a minimum if they move the pen, Bundy and Archer are veterans that shouldn't get rattled and walk the bases loaded when we are up by 3+ runs. The Cottons and Thornburgs ... uff da. Archer has had some wildness, but he's got poise.

8 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'd guess it was always a possibility because his contract had incentives that specified the number of APPEARANCES, not starts. Obviously he's going to have an easier time reaching his 26, 28, 30 and 32 appearance bonuses if he's in the pen as opposed to the rotation.

So, he actually may be more than willing to do the move. 

Yeah I don't know if Archer would be inclined to move to the pen given the incentives in the contract unless the Twins were willing to amend it.

According to ESPN's Jeff Passan, the team reached an agreement with right-hander Chris Archer on a one-year, $3.5 million contract. The deal can reach as high as $9.5 million with performance bonuses "based on games started or outings with nine or more outs."

The way I read that is If in the bullpen he won't be starting games and if they don't let him go three innings from the pen it is going to be hard for him to get 9 or more outs per outing.  The Twins need to and will operate in good faith to allow him to reach those incentives that is why I think Archer to the pen is a long shot.

How about this option?  We all sit back and enjoy his pitching whenever he is on the mound? 

I for one have been a huge fan of his since I saw him pitch a lot on MiLB tv last summer.  He convinced me he was the best starting pitching prospect in the upper levels of the organization.  [Note: Joe Ryan wasn't in the organization at the time, although I may still have preferred Winder as #1]  So I expect him to do well and will enjoy every inning I am able to watch.

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

That does make it less likely he'd want to move. Not that it should be his call. 4 IP per start would be a fine idea if it wasn't disabling an already disastrous bullpen. As it is, it's just not sustainable.

I don't disagree and if the Twins were willing to change the reading of the contract from starts to just appearances I am guessing all would be well on that front from a money standpoint.

As things stand you can see the Twins have done everything they can to give him starts and so far have barely pushed him over the 9 outs threshold.  They are holding up their end of the bargain in good faith so far.  I assume they will continue to and hope Archer can start getting to 5 innings or more from here on out.  

I think given the walks and inability to go five innings he looks much better as a pen arm but he leaves a lot of money on the table if he gives up now.  He is playing for a contract next year as well so I don't think a reliever role will go over well with him.  I think he is a starter unless he does get a season ending injury.  

It also looks like with the 9 outs per appearance language they thought about piggy backing him so while that doesn't completely solve the problem it does provide for some flexibility in how they use him.

38 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think him continuing to fail to go more than 4 innings in his starts is hurting his contract negotiating power for next year if he's trying to get a starting pitcher deal. I'd argue moving to a closer role (allowing Duran to maintain his "heart of the order, high leverage situations" role) and being a shutdown closer for the rest of the year would fetch him a better deal than being a 4 inning starter.

Yeah I don't disagree.  His WHIP is up and K's are down.  His ERA looks real good but FIP and xFIP say it is smoke and mirrors at this point.  The issue is though the contract is structured for a starter,  He has always been a starter.  When you do incentive laden contracts and don't follow through in good faith then nobody wants to sign incentive laden contracts with that FO\Club.  The Twins have always operated in good faith I don't see that changing in this scenario.  They are operating in good faith with Buxton as well.

I guess if his performance level falls to his expected FIP rate then maybe the Twins have a case to try and change course but with Archer having a decent 3.08 ERA he seems to be holding up his end for the most part. Yeah he needs to go longer but when you do contracts like that there has to be a little dance around those incentives.

I think if Archer can continue to do what he is doing he can find a 10M or more per year contract as a starter.  He hadn't done much of anything in the past few years and is still on track for his 9.5 Million incentive laden contract for this year. He would have to be lights out in the pen to get that as a reliever and I don't know how he would fare coming out of the pen.  I think he is who he is with plenty of warts but somehow he has made things work more often than not this season.  We will see if that holds or not.

I don't see Bundy or Archer being happy about moving to the pen and neither of them have the actual results which warrant a move to the pen or the options to move them to AAA.

Both Bundy (a29) and Archer (a33) are free agents after this year and they're playing for their future and Archer has huge incentives to start games, so yeah, moving either to the bullpen isn't going to go over well.

That said, Archer's advanced numbers are not good. 4.89 FIP / 4.99 xFIP and he only has 2 appearances this year with an xFIP under 4.22 vs. 9 starts with an xFIP of 4.85 or higher. He's walked a ton of guys and struck out few, but he's stranded a career best 79.9% of base runners. It seems likely Archer is due to get knocked around.

Bundy has pitched far better than Archer in terms of the metrics like FIP and xFIP. 7 of Bundy's 15 starts have come with xFIPs under 3.60. He's pitching largely like a #4ish rotation guy in terms of actual results. 3 good, 2 bad, 2 good, 3 bad, 4 good, 1 bad.

Ober moving to the pen makes more sense than Winder, IMHO. I think Ober is a capable starter, but I don't think he's got the ceiling or median as high as Winder, and it's not like Ober pitched a ton more innings than Winder.

There are 74 more games in the regular season for the Twins so the opportunity for 14-15 starts or about 70-85 innings for a starter on the Twins (average 5.0 to 5.1 innings) so Winder probably doesn't have a real innings limit issue. If anybody is on the path to a potential innings cap, it's Joe Ryan. Ryan pitched, what, like 108 innings last year between MiLB/MLB and the Olympics? Tack on 85 innings to his current total and he sits at 155 before the potential playoffs. Does anybody believe the Twins would actually stretch him to out to 180+ innings should the Twins advance?

I suppose that leads to a 3rd option which is 6 man rotation.

4 hours ago, Eephus said:

Winder = starter. And if Ober can join the rotation, move Archer and Bundy to the bullpen since they can only pitch 4 innings anyway. Boom! Solved it!

You must have meant Ryan or Gray. Bundy has the most innings pitched and the most starts with at least 5 innings on the staff. He has 11. Ryan and Gray have combined for 14.

I don’t think I would want Winder in the long relief role. They don’t get used enough. It gets to the fifth inning and then the rest of the pen is used to get to the end. An effective mid game multiple inning reliever will be helpful.

Starter. Move Bundy and Archer to the pen

I'd understand this problem more if the Twins were loaded at starting pitcher.  But they are not. Right now, Josh Winder is the third best starter on this team, and if Ryan doesn't snap out of it pretty soon, then Winder will be the second best starter on this team. A team with marginal starting pitching shouldn't be debating moving a guy with the starting stats quoted in the OP to the freakin' pen or AAA. He should be in the rotation until the numbers regress, or you start skipping spots to limit his innings.

As for the Bundy/Archer/Ober/Smeltzer problems this creates? Tough. It's baseball, and you tell them all if they want to be in the rotation, then pitch better than Winder. (Love the Archer potential, but his surgically repaired hip isn't holding up even with restricted use? That's bad. Give him some rope and time, but if he can't stay healthy, and won't accept a 'pen role, then you let him go. Same with Bundy, though he intrigues me more as a bullpen arm; love his character even if he's looking threadbare in the rotation.

And, yeah, I totally could see him starting a playoff game. Say against Tampa who has already been wiped out by Winder. Though I'd rather see him start Game 4 after Castillo/Montas/OtherReallyGoodPitcher, Gray, and Ryan.

Start and extend pitch count!

I think Winder is due for some regression as teams get more opportunities to scout him. He's already had some good luck--his expected ERA(4.14) is a full run higher than his actual ERA (3.12)--and he doesn't have great stuff.

I'd be ok if the Twins moved him to the bullpen to protect him. Help him succeed by only facing hitters once or twice per game, then let him be a full-time rotation piece next year.

10 hours ago, Dman said:

Yeah I don't know if Archer would be inclined to move to the pen given the incentives in the contract unless the Twins were willing to amend it.

According to ESPN's Jeff Passan, the team reached an agreement with right-hander Chris Archer on a one-year, $3.5 million contract. The deal can reach as high as $9.5 million with performance bonuses "based on games started or outings with nine or more outs."

The way I read that is If in the bullpen he won't be starting games and if they don't let him go three innings from the pen it is going to be hard for him to get 9 or more outs per outing.  The Twins need to and will operate in good faith to allow him to reach those incentives that is why I think Archer to the pen is a long shot.

 

If only… you know… both sides would be willing to renegotiate his contract so that it would be a fair compromise to both parties for the benefit of the team.  Archer in the pen is a solution.

Ho Hum!  Sorry guys, but this all sounds more like moving deck chairs around on the Titanic.  Has anyone noticed that while the pen has gotten most of the bad press lately, it is the rotation, that not surprisingly has sprung a bunch of leaks lately?   Guys like Smeltzer, Winder, Ober and yes, evenRyan(post IR) are not playoff ready pitchers.  No, I'm not writing off this group's surprisingly good performance in the first half, but looking at the peripherals, is anyone surprised they are falling to the norm?   Even Sonny Gray, their so-called "ace" has joined the crowd with his bomb in Texas.  The FO tried putting lipstick on a pig, but it's still a .....And that's not even considering our bullpen problems.

To this observer, as currently constituted, this is at best a .500 team in a weak division.  If the Sox ever wake up, they'll leave the Twins in the dust.   But because this hasn't happened, it is shame on Falvine if they don't strike agressively in going after at least two playoff-caliber starters by Aug. 2nd.   With Sano's return to duty imminent, the FO should be on the phone to SD to consummate a trade for Snell.  No, I don't think this team will be in the hunt for Montas or Castillo but there are some short term veterans likely available, incl. Thor, Rodon, Greinke, who might be available.  And bullpen help is certainly available if the FO is willing to trade some of our excess high minors talent, e.g., Steer, Wallner, Larnach, Martin and/or one of our top 10 pitching prospects.  Unfortunately, like his predecessor, Falvey has never shown the fortitude to go for it midseason.

Bottom line, if Falvey sits on his hands, after making a big push for contention with the signing of Buxton and Correa, then isn't that a dereliction of his duties and a reason for termination?  It's sort of amazing that even with this FO's abject failure to address the obvious weaknesses in pitching this past offseason(and then exacerbating them by the ill-fated Rogers trade), this team is still in the hunt for the postseason.  These opportunities don't come along frequently with this franchise.  Managment owes it to the fans to capitalize on their current position to act forcefully now, not nibble around the edges with minor moves that really don't disguise basic failings.

31 minutes ago, mike8791 said:

Ho Hum!  Sorry guys, but this all sounds more like moving deck chairs around on the Titanic.  Has anyone noticed that while the pen has gotten most of the bad press lately, it is the rotation, that not surprisingly has sprung a bunch of leaks lately?   Guys like Smeltzer, Winder, Ober and yes, evenRyan(post IR) are not playoff ready pitchers.  No, I'm not writing off this group's surprisingly good performance in the first half, but looking at the peripherals, is anyone surprised they are falling to the norm?   Even Sonny Gray, their so-called "ace" has joined the crowd with his bomb in Texas.  The FO tried putting lipstick on a pig, but it's still a .....And that's not even considering our bullpen problems.

To this observer, as currently constituted, this is at best a .500 team in a weak division.  If the Sox ever wake up, they'll leave the Twins in the dust.   But because this hasn't happened, it is shame on Falvine if they don't strike agressively in going after at least two playoff-caliber starters by Aug. 2nd.   With Sano's return to duty imminent, the FO should be on the phone to SD to consummate a trade for Snell.  No, I don't think this team will be in the hunt for Montas or Castillo but there are some short term veterans likely available, incl. Thor, Rodon, Greinke, who might be available.  And bullpen help is certainly available if the FO is willing to trade some of our excess high minors talent, e.g., Steer, Wallner, Larnach, Martin and/or one of our top 10 pitching prospects.  Unfortunately, like his predecessor, Falvey has never shown the fortitude to go for it midseason.

Bottom line, if Falvey sits on his hands, after making a big push for contention with the signing of Buxton and Correa, then isn't that a dereliction of his duties and a reason for termination?  It's sort of amazing that even with this FO's abject failure to address the obvious weaknesses in pitching this past offseason(and then exacerbating them by the ill-fated Rogers trade), this team is still in the hunt for the postseason.  These opportunities don't come along frequently with this franchise.  Managment owes it to the fans to capitalize on their current position to act forcefully now, not nibble around the edges with minor moves that really don't disguise basic failings.

Baltimore is a 500 team in a tough division should they be pushing all their chips in.  Boston and Toronto in the East as well.  Seattle in the West.  Philly/ St Louis / Atlanta / San Francisco / San Fran and Arizona.  Should all of these front offices be fired if they don't go all in?  Cobine these teams with all of the true contenders and it's going to take a whole lot of players to satisfy all that demand.