2022 Twins 10-round Mock Draft

Terrific analysis Cody, and very informative providing the player’s rankings from mlb, BA, ESPN and TA! I noted that the mix was 7 pitchers, 1 OF and 2 corner IFs.  I am all onboard with drafting the 7 pitchers, but I believe that the Twins should be more concerned of Shortstops. The system seems to be light on such, even though they drafted the Miller kid from Wisconsin last year.  I was also thankful that you didn’t mention Jacob Berry - who is a powerful college hitter that is basically a DH, and I have seen him going to the Twins on various mocks.  All in all, a super informative article. Thx!

Nice list Cody, Interesting debate.  Twins seem to have plenty of possible position players for the next few years, so pitching is the way to go. 

Don't know much about any of these guys, but I ask...where are the catchers?  The important catcher position is so weak throughout the organization.  Is there any catcher that anyone can say is a legitimate prospect to become a front line starter?  At shortstop you have Lewis, Miller, maybe Martin and/or Cavaco and a few others.  But at catcher, no one.  I don't know, maybe that is the case with most teams.  But the catching with the big team isn't very good and it sure would be nice if they began to develop a pipeline to change that in the future.

So I want the kid from Georgia Tech to be available at #8 and the Twins to make him a Twin.  Add another guy from the International market and maybe five years from now the situation will be different.

Seems like a very plausible draft.  Generally pretty safe to assume that this front office will load up on college arms on day 2.

Like others I hope that one of the consensus top 7 will fall to the Twins.  Barring that I think I'd prefer Neto over Cross.  He'll need more offensive refinement but I like his bat-to-ball skills as a foundation, and of course I like his positional and defensive value.

I'm a big fan of going for high school pitching upside in the second round, and I could even see maybe doubling up with the comp pick if they are able to have enough money to sign two.  Maybe an underslot deal with someone like Cole Young in the first round would allow that to happen.  That would be an interesting upside over safety play.  Probably not very likely but fun to speculate.

Of the college pitchers, Johnson and Zobac sound the most like the Twins types based on your descriptions, but looking at how past drafts have gone they'll probably take a few under the radar guys and we probably won't know what they've actually gotten with them until a year or even two later once the development team has had some time to mold them a bit.

Great work, Jeremy.  I really appreciate the work you put in.  Did you see that Law has mocked Collier to the Twins at 8?  I fear that is too good to be true.  In his top 100, he now has Cross at 10, Neto at 11, and Williams at 12 so it appears all of them are rising up the boards.  I love your Duke picks.  They both have great potential and could end up impressing like Festa and Povich have this year.  I agree Miller has great potential.  It may take a few years for him to develop, but he could be a nice piece.  Did you consider Landon Sims at any point?  He will likely be a reliever with his reliance on the fast ball and slider.  If the Twins could improve his slider a bit, he could make the majors while the young core is still together.  This will be a great draft to watch.

Thx for your efforts on the draft. I love the baseball, basket all and football drafts, but baseball mock drafts are waaay to difficult to project. But I appreciate your attempt anyway. I will definitely be following the draft as it occurs. 

1 hour ago, roger said:

Don't know much about any of these guys, but I ask...where are the catchers?  The important catcher position is so weak throughout the organization.  Is there any catcher that anyone can say is a legitimate prospect to become a front line starter?  At shortstop you have Lewis, Miller, maybe Martin and/or Cavaco and a few others.  But at catcher, no one.  I don't know, maybe that is the case with most teams.  But the catching with the big team isn't very good and it sure would be nice if they began to develop a pipeline to change that in the future.

So I want the kid from Georgia Tech to be available at #8 and the Twins to make him a Twin.  Add another guy from the International market and maybe five years from now the situation will be different.

The Twins must select a catcher. There are no catchers in the top 30 prospects for the Twins. Chris Williams, a catcher from Clemson, is getting older and has been playing 1B, I have a suggestion: Move Matt Wallner to catcher. He is 6'5" 220 lbs and has a cannon for an arm. He hit mid 90's relieving in college. He is a super left-handed power hitter. He is a relatively slow runner (lumbering) and a corner OF, which the Twins have plenty of. He is rated as a "fringe-average left fielder".  The Twins currently have Buck, Celestino, Larnach, Kepler, possibly Kirilloff, possibly Martin, and Gordan slated for OF play. How difficult would this conversion be? If I were Wallner, I would want to do this. 

The MLB draft is the most confusing of all the professional drafts (to me).  I just don't comprehend the "underslot" picks to save money or the fact that a team like the Mets could "force someone to slide down to them".  Is there an article out there in cyberspace that anyone knows of that can explain all the high falutin', new fangled rules for the MLB draft?

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

The Twins must select a catcher. There are no catchers in the top 30 prospects for the Twins. Chris Williams, a catcher from Clemson, is getting older and has been playing 1B, I have a suggestion: Move Matt Wallner to catcher. He is 6'5" 220 lbs and has a cannon for an arm. He hit mid 90's relieving in college. He is a super left-handed power hitter. He is a relatively slow runner (lumbering) and a corner OF, which the Twins have plenty of. He is rated as a "fringe-average left fielder".  The Twins currently have Buck, Celestino, Larnach, Kepler, possibly Kirilloff, possibly Martin, and Gordan slated for OF play. How difficult would this conversion be? If I were Wallner, I would want to do this. 

While I agree with the sentiment... unless you're picking Adley Ruschman (spelling?) or Joe Mauer, you go with the best available talent.  That just isn't catcher this year (at least at #8 overall).

53 minutes ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

I get the need for a catcher and I mocked that the Twins take one in the Top 10 rounds. It's certainly a possibility they use a higher pick - like they did with Jeffers - where they see something that they like and take a guy a lot higher than other boards have him. 

They've also commonly taken players and later moved them behind the plate, guys like Caleb Hamilton and Andrew Bechtold. I don't know anything about the Twins and Dom Keegan in particular, but he's a perfect example of the type of player the Twins may (over)value. If they view him as someone who can stick behind the dish, they could take him much earlier. 

It's clear the Twins lack high-quality depth; look at the Fangraphs top 40 and see it includes no catchers. But then they have a section called "Loads of Catching Depth," where they highlight five different catching prospects in the system, so there is hope. Plus, it wouldn't shock me at all to see the Twins extend Gary Sanchez and lock him and Jeffers in as the catching duo for the next handful of years.

Interesting comments, Jeremy, and others.  Are we headed towards getting the best defensive catcher you can and not being concerned when he hits .180-.220?  A catcher who will block balls with a cannon arm to control the opponent's running game.  I guess I am describing Drew Butera, eh?  Makes me sick that they had the guy who was actually going to hit a bit better and traded him to the darn Yankees.  Hated that trade when it was made.  As I watch games and see what we now have behind the plate and at bat, hate it more.  By the way, is Drew Butera still playing?

And Jeremy, I dread your suggestion that we may see Sanchez/Jeffers for the coming years....Boooooo!  Do the rules allow the Twins to DH for the catcher and let the pitchers bat?  [I don't know how to insert a smiley face here]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Are you talking about Ben Rortvedt? Between Garver, Jeffers and Rortvedt, Rortvedt was far and away the worst hitting of the bunch. His bat made Ryan Jeffers look like Babe Ruth.

True.  But you are judging his bat when called up to the Twins from AA ball the previous year, a year in which he should have been in AAA.  When healthy, he has been an ok hitter in the minors.  Unfortunately, Jeffers was supposed to be a much better hitter who has failed to do anything this year.

Just now, nicksaviking said:

Jeffers career minor league OPS is .829, Rortvedt's is .676. Rortvedt has never hit at any level. Jeffers too was originally called up from AA.

I'd like to improve from Jeffers, but I'd still rather have Jeffers than Rortvedt.

I guess we will have to agree to disagree.  Let's talk four years from now when Ben is the starting catcher for the Yankees and the Twins continue looking for a catcher that can throw anyone out at second base.  As I began saying, I don't care what they hit if only some catcher could get the job done defensively. 

Thank you for all your hard work Jeremy, including this mock, getting ready for the draft.

While the names may change, the draft aa you've proposed here sounds very "Twins like" with thus FO. Take the HS SP in round 2, grab a bunch of arms that they can work with and develop from the college ranks, and maybe even draft an injury flier or two with high upside, e en if you have to wait a year on them.  (They've done that before).

Can never have enough good pitching, that's for sure. I'm a little leary of the P/Player imbalance here, but the past few drafts and a good deal of the international signings have been pretty strong in player numbers so I guess I'm OK at the end of the day.

Really would like to see a higher/better catcher or a pair. But they drafted 3 last year, (though only 1 is doing anything with the bat so far), and from what I've read and heard, just sounds like a down year for backstop.

Cross just makes sense at #8 if nobody falls. He's either a better hitter than Kepler, or a faster version of Larnach. Both sound good to me. But if the Twins believe Neto would stick at SS, I just wonder if he doesn't provide such an overall balance to his game as to be the better selection?

31 minutes ago, roger said:

I guess we will have to agree to disagree.  Let's talk four years from now when Ben is the starting catcher for the Yankees and the Twins continue looking for a catcher that can throw anyone out at second base.  As I began saying, I don't care what they hit if only some catcher could get the job done defensively. 

That ignores the fact that the vast bulk of bases are stolen off the pitcher.

Having spent a good bit of time around catchers, I can say with some certainty, Jeffers if just fine defensively.  He may not be Pudge, but very few are.  

5 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

The Twins must select a catcher. There are no catchers in the top 30 prospects for the Twins. Chris Williams, a catcher from Clemson, is getting older and has been playing 1B, I have a suggestion: Move Matt Wallner to catcher. He is 6'5" 220 lbs and has a cannon for an arm. He hit mid 90's relieving in college. He is a super left-handed power hitter. He is a relatively slow runner (lumbering) and a corner OF, which the Twins have plenty of. He is rated as a "fringe-average left fielder".  The Twins currently have Buck, Celestino, Larnach, Kepler, possibly Kirilloff, possibly Martin, and Gordan slated for OF play. How difficult would this conversion be? If I were Wallner, I would want to do this. 

1st, great job Jeremy! Catching is a very important position and now we are weak there. I'd like to see the Twins try to go after a catcher in the upper ranks. I was very impressed with Tarheel suggestion to transition Wallner from LF where he has no future to catcher. Where he can excel and plug a hole where we have a great need, this makes perfect sense. This transition could suppress his hitting short term but could pay huge dividends in the near future.

FO if you read this please take note.

I'm still hoping for Dylan Lesko at #8.

7 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

The MLB draft is the most confusing of all the professional drafts (to me).  I just don't comprehend the "underslot" picks to save money or the fact that a team like the Mets could "force someone to slide down to them".  Is there an article out there in cyberspace that anyone knows of that can explain all the high falutin', new fangled rules for the MLB draft?

I'll try to explain...

Somewhat similar to, say, football each pick in the MLB draft is assigned a certain signing bonus. But unlike football, a player drafted with that pick doesn't automatically get that signing bonus. Instead the slot amounts of all the picks a team has in the first 10 rounds are added up together and then can be distributed among the drafted players however the team sees fit. 

Very simplified example:

It's important to understand that teams usually negotiate signing bonuses with players before they draft them, not the other way around. 

So, let's say our team has three picks with the slot values $3M, $2M and $1M, meaning they can spend $6M in signing bonuses total on their draft class. Of course they could just hand it out like that.

But maybe don't like the consensus top players for their first pick and draft someone lower on the board who they found out is willing to sign for only $2M. They now have $4M for their other two picks.

Meanwhile, there are always some players in every draft who fall because no team is willing to meet their asking price. Often HS players who have the leverage that they can just decline and go to college.

Since we "saved" money with our first pick, we now have more left than most other teams, $4M, and can just go to one of those should-have-been first-rounders in the second round and throw first-round money (e.g. $3M) at them.

So, to sum up, instead of getting a first and a second, we ended up with a slightly worse first-rounder and another guy that should've been a late first. It's basically baseball's version of a trade down, except that the actual picks are never traded.

Like with the Mets, it can work the other way, too. Maybe in my example the team really likes a player expected to go before they pick. So they go to that player and offer him $4M to sign. If that player then communicates to the other team that he won't sign for less than $4M and no one else is willing to give that to him, they might let this player slide right to our team. Of course, that also leaves only $2M for the other picks, meaning that we'll have to use our second-rounder on a player that's not really worthy of a second-round pick but doesn't have better offers from other teams. That scenario would basically be a trade up.

I hope that helps a bit? I agree, the MLB draft can be confusing to watch, especially because fans don't know those prenegotiated deals until the players actually sign a month or so later.

3 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

Also, I just can't not say something... 

Matt Wallner to Catcher????? 

?

I respectfully ask, "Why not?"

3 hours ago, Sielk said:

I'll try to explain...

Somewhat similar to, say, football each pick in the MLB draft is assigned a certain signing bonus. But unlike football, a player drafted with that pick doesn't automatically get that signing bonus. Instead the slot amounts of all the picks a team has in the first 10 rounds are added up together and then can be distributed among the drafted players however the team sees fit. 

Very simplified example:

It's important to understand that teams usually negotiate signing bonuses with players before they draft them, not the other way around. 

So, let's say our team has three picks with the slot values $3M, $2M and $1M, meaning they can spend $6M in signing bonuses total on their draft class. Of course they could just hand it out like that.

But maybe don't like the consensus top players for their first pick and draft someone lower on the board who they found out is willing to sign for only $2M. They now have $4M for their other two picks.

Meanwhile, there are always some players in every draft who fall because no team is willing to meet their asking price. Often HS players who have the leverage that they can just decline and go to college.

Since we "saved" money with our first pick, we now have more left than most other teams, $4M, and can just go to one of those should-have-been first-rounders in the second round and throw first-round money (e.g. $3M) at them.

So, to sum up, instead of getting a first and a second, we ended up with a slightly worse first-rounder and another guy that should've been a late first. It's basically baseball's version of a trade down, except that the actual picks are never traded.

Like with the Mets, it can work the other way, too. Maybe in my example the team really likes a player expected to go before they pick. So they go to that player and offer him $4M to sign. If that player then communicates to the other team that he won't sign for less than $4M and no one else is willing to give that to him, they might let this player slide right to our team. Of course, that also leaves only $2M for the other picks, meaning that we'll have to use our second-rounder on a player that's not really worthy of a second-round pick but doesn't have better offers from other teams. That scenario would basically be a trade up.

I hope that helps a bit? I agree, the MLB draft can be confusing to watch, especially because fans don't know those prenegotiated deals until the players actually sign a month or so later.

Thanks.  That did help.  But it almost sounds like a slimy backroom deal if you do it right.  It sort of defeats the purpose of the draft (parity) if you can negotiate before you select.  Weird.

Thanks Jeremy, youve done the homework and have an impressive history of correct picks, great stuff.

I know nothing, zero/zilch about the propsed picks here, I just hope your emphasis on loading up on pitchers will actually happen. If they can find some lefties even better. Law of averages says a couple of these guys will have positive impact in MLB someday. Hope it is with the Twins. 

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

Thanks.  That did help.  But it almost sounds like a slimy backroom deal if you do it right.  It sort of defeats the purpose of the draft (parity) if you can negotiate before you select.  Weird.

Glad I could help.

Not all teams have the same amount of bonus money available, though. If you have the first pick in every round, the sum of your slot bonuses is way higher than the team picking 30th in every round. That, of course, equals to better prospects for the bad teams. 

Here is a list of the bonus pools and individual slot amounts, if you're interested. 

11 hours ago, Sielk said:

I'll try to explain...

Somewhat similar to, say, football each pick in the MLB draft is assigned a certain signing bonus. But unlike football, a player drafted with that pick doesn't automatically get that signing bonus. Instead the slot amounts of all the picks a team has in the first 10 rounds are added up together and then can be distributed among the drafted players however the team sees fit. 

Very simplified example:

It's important to understand that teams usually negotiate signing bonuses with players before they draft them, not the other way around. 

So, let's say our team has three picks with the slot values $3M, $2M and $1M, meaning they can spend $6M in signing bonuses total on their draft class. Of course they could just hand it out like that.

But maybe don't like the consensus top players for their first pick and draft someone lower on the board who they found out is willing to sign for only $2M. They now have $4M for their other two picks.

Meanwhile, there are always some players in every draft who fall because no team is willing to meet their asking price. Often HS players who have the leverage that they can just decline and go to college.

Since we "saved" money with our first pick, we now have more left than most other teams, $4M, and can just go to one of those should-have-been first-rounders in the second round and throw first-round money (e.g. $3M) at them.

So, to sum up, instead of getting a first and a second, we ended up with a slightly worse first-rounder and another guy that should've been a late first. It's basically baseball's version of a trade down, except that the actual picks are never traded.

Like with the Mets, it can work the other way, too. Maybe in my example the team really likes a player expected to go before they pick. So they go to that player and offer him $4M to sign. If that player then communicates to the other team that he won't sign for less than $4M and no one else is willing to give that to him, they might let this player slide right to our team. Of course, that also leaves only $2M for the other picks, meaning that we'll have to use our second-rounder on a player that's not really worthy of a second-round pick but doesn't have better offers from other teams. That scenario would basically be a trade up.

I hope that helps a bit? I agree, the MLB draft can be confusing to watch, especially because fans don't know those prenegotiated deals until the players actually sign a month or so later.

In other words, there is a lot of tampering and shenanigans.  They should just allow picks to be traded already.