2020 Minnesota Twins: Ten Questions

Our answers will be somewhat dependent, Seth, on knowing which baseball they will be playing with.

1:  I suspect Garver's numbers will be down a bit from 2019, but still amongst the best for catchers in MLB.

2: Garver will catch 45 games.

3: Expect Sano will not be as good defensively as we like, but better than we fear.

4. Luis Arraez will avoid a sophomore slump with an average over .330 and OBP very near .400.

5: Polanco's performance at the plate will be similar to 2019.  Does that mean he is an all-star?  As you have stated the competition is stiff, so probably not.

6: Not only can Rosario take another step, he will. Gonna force the Twins to make a real hard decision next winter...whatever that decision is.

7: Not only can Buxton remain healthy, I pray he will as the Twins are so much better when he is healthy and on the field.

8: I have long believed that Kepler will continue to get better and when it is all over will be considered for the HOF.  The next step in 2020 is to improve his average while maintaining the power he found in 2019.  I question, however, how the lack of a normal spring and full year will effect his and all players progress.

9: Yes, I see Cruz as continuing to be very, very good.  Will that be a small step down from 2019, probably.  But definitely good enough to merit a one year extension come December.

10: Yes, but it seems impossible to continue with the lofty numbers he had while in the visitor's dugout. 

Thanks for getting us back to thinking about playing on the field.  Stay safe, Seth. 

I agree that Sano will not be as good as Mauer defensively but he will be better than Cron. I bet Polanco's throwing errors are down this year.

It is fun to re-boot the mind and contemplate a baseball season. I love our chances and I love our team. I am bullish on all the above mentioned. Garver and Arraez maybe regress, but just a little - I am in the "Rosario will be a monster" camp - I love Kepler's chances to continue improvement.
The veteran leadership on this club combined with the continuity of the young core that has been together since they were teenagers, a shortened season my be very much in our favor. Start hot - Stay hot - no batting slumps and competent pitching. This season will be a sprint. Thanks Seth

I would be shocked if he ever starts over 110 games behind the plate in a 162 game season. The Twins front office, coaching staff and even Garver believes in keeping those legs rested and strong.  

I completely agree. Baseball people in the modern era know how wearing, and therefore detrimental to performance, it is to catch a lot of games. Keep him fresher for the stretch run and the postseason and extend his career behind the plate.

We don't know yet exactly how the 2020 season will look (if it happens at all) but my optimism pre-Corona extends into whatever happens this season. I think the answer to all ten questions will be favorable to the Twins. That includes #5, sort of, because there should not be an ASG this year.

Now let's do 10 questions about pitchers, the most unpredictable position. 1) Can Berrios be a a league leading "Ace" for this short season? 2) Will Hill successfully pitch the whole short season? 3) Will Pineda's suspension start when the games start? 4) Can Taylor Rogers continue his dominance as a lefty closer? 5) Will Jake O. continue his success with the high fastball or will the batters adjust? 6) Who will be the 5th starter? 7) Will May have a monster season? 8) Can Duffy be dominant again this year? 9) Which rookie pitcher will become a successful starter for the Twins? 10) Will Bert Blyleven come out of retirement to start the first game of the World Series?

In regard to the original 10:

1] Garver: HR% numbers could drop league wide depending on the ball. But the HR and launch angle trend in MLB is real. So is Garver's power, approach and swing. Can we even really call last year a true "breakout" season when it was really his first year as the "primary" receiver and only 2nd season overall? I think he's for real.

2] Garver games caught: Ugh, math. Still a good platoon partner. But a short season. 50 games, which is 60%.

3] Sano at 1B: He's going to miss a few balls and botch a few plays. He's played there before but is learning the nuances. He won't be great right away, but he will be solid. He will also use his natural athleticism to make a few plays that will make you say; "Whoa! If he could just do that more consistently...."

4] Arraez: You won't see such a natural hitter slump even if he doesn't hit .330 in his second season. Even a dip to .310-.315 with a .390ish OB is excellent. He'll improve defensively and might even muscle up on the XB production.

5] Polanco: No, probably, because there won't be an All Star game. Not unless they want to have one after the season, similar to the NFL, which I doubt for various reasons. But he could make an All Star 1st-3rd team All Star post season selection team.

6] Rosario: He's been bothered the 2nd half of each of the last 2 seasons with different injuries. Healthy, smart enough talented enough, still young enough, healthy and just a small improvement in approach lifts an already good game to a more consistent level. And he will be back in 2021 Because he's good, still won't be overly expensive, and there are doubts anyone will be ready to replace him considering how weird this whole year is going to be.

7] Buxton: He will be dinged, like most players, and miss a few games. But not only should experience be teaching him how to save his body better, and it's a short season, but law of averages will come in to play here to balance some bad luck.

8] Kepler: Reference the law of averages again while factoring in youth, talent, approach, great swing and adjustments being made. At some point his ridiculous BABIP will adjust, even a little. We still haven't seen the best from Max.

9] Cruz: Father time will beat him. But it won't happen this year. Witness not only 2019 but the ST he was having before thjngs shut down. Now factor in a half season. He might not have another career season, even in an abbreviated one, but he will be fine. I would have said the same thing in regard to a full and complete 2020 season, with the idea Father Time would start to pull ahead in 2021. But in a Twins uniform or not for 2021, I'm thinking a short 2020 may put off the inevitable by another year.

10] Donlaldson: He won't be crushing on Twins pitching, but he has crushed about anyone, anywhere, in his career when healthy. I have no doubts he will continue to do so for the first 2-3yrs of his contract, as long as he remains healthy. Guy is a stud hitter. Like Cruz, the half season may actually work to an advantage.

Yep, I'm an optimist, but I think all of this is logical and true.

I will only answer the questions I have much to add.  

1) Garver will continue to hit well.  His approach is very good and he will not get himself out.  Sure, he may take some called third strikes but he will never chase either.  He will make that ump call that third strike on the edges.  Pitcher will try to throw get me over curves at time, but my guess Mitch will figure that out and crush those as well.

3) Sano will be terrible at first for awhile.  He will drop some easy pop ups just like he did at third.  He will drop some good throws.  However, we will not care when he is crushing the ball.  If he is not crushing the ball then he will see the bench more often and will not see his terrible defense.  Crazy to think he was signed as a SS and even played there a little in his very young years.

4) Arraez will not slump, depending on what you call a slump.  Will he hit as well as first year maybe not, but he will have good OBP. and I think eventually he will get more benefit of doubt calls by umps when he looks and shakes his head at pitches that go by. 

7) Buxton will not stay healthy, not because he is injury prone, but because he plays the game with reckless abandon and crashes into walls at full speed because he believes he is superman that can catch every thing.  Until he dials it back a tiny bit to be more prepared to jump into the walls he will keep getting hurt, no way around it.  Torii needs to teach him how to set yourself up for a good wall jump.  Really, the issue is Buxton covers so much ground so quickly that he does not get set up with proper technique to protect himself on jumps and dives.  Hopefully the kid learns this for his own sake.  Starting back a few more steps and letting a couple of singles drops will help. 

9) I expect Cruz will continue to hit well.  I agree father time is undefeated but some guys go longer.  There has been many good hitters that can play into 40's, some maybe with a little chemical help, but when all you are expected to do is crush pitches and nothing else you can still do it.  What in Cruz recent years suggest he will just fall off cliff?  He has short quick swing without much movement that helps.