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  • 2017 Twins Player Predictions: Miguel Sano

    Seth Stohs

    By Seth Stohs

    Might Sano set a record for the Twins in 2016. His 178 strikeouts broke Brian Dozier’s one-year-old record of 148 punchouts in 2015. It was an impressive feat considering he missed the month of June on the Disabled List. Sano enters 2017 knowing he will be back at his more natural position, third base, after last year’s erstwhile attempt in right field.

    While most consider Sano’s 2016 a down season, he still had 25 home runs. However, after such a strong showing in the final three months of 2015, expectations were very high. Still just 23-years-old, Sano has a ton of potential. His power remains legit, but he’ll need to find a way to put the ball in play more often.

    That’s the question at the plate. Meanwhile, there are lingering questions about how well he will be able to play third base defensively too.

    Image courtesy of Seth Stohs, Twins Daily

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    What can Miguel Sano do in 2017? Can he take the next step and put it all together offensively and defensively? Can he come close to the .916 OPS he put up in 80 games as a rookie, or will his OPS be closer to the .781 mark he hit in 2016?

    Below you will find my predictions (or guesses, if you prefer) for Miguel Sano’s 2017 season. Consider posting your thoughts and your predictions into the comments below. It’s always fun to take a look at the end of the season and see how our predictions look.

    KEY NUMBERS

    35.5% and 36.0% - These are Miguel Sano’s strikeout rates in his first two MLB seasons. Frankly, these are numbers that really need to drop. It isn’t going to happen over night, and his 43% K-Rate in spring training doesn’t exactly lend itself to much confidence. As disappointing, his walk rate dropped from 15.8% in his freshman season to 10.9% in his second season. 10.9% is still solid, no question about that, but these two numbers are patterns to watch.

    Consider slugger Chris Carter. He led the the National League with 41 home runs in 2016, yet he had to wait most of the offseason to sign (for just $3 million) in large part because he’s one-dimensional and strikes out a ton. Just once in the last five years has he had a K-rate as high as Sano’s these first two years. He’s been in the 31-32% range except one year he had a 36.2% K-rate. It’s just indicative of why it’s important for Sano to do more than DH and reduce his strikeout rate.

    0.896 - That is the fielding percentage Sano had in 42 games in 2017. Not to beat a dead horse, but Sano will have to prove he can handle the position. Personally, I think he’ll be fine, bumping that number closer to 0.940. With the Twins in a transition season, hopefully between a 59-win season and a possible playoff berth, it’s worth giving Sano the full year, but his value is much higher if he can stay at third base.

    PREDICTIONS

    Miguel Sano: 553 at-bats, .253/.346/.506 (.852), 32 doubles, 3 triples, 34 home runs.

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Part of these numbers is Sano finding a way to stay on the field. I have him playing in 148 games. If he is able to stay at third base and stay healthy, I think he’ll put up some monster numbers, probably even higher than what I have shown here. The key, of course, will be finding a way to put the ball in play more often. Striking out 36% of the time just isn’t a good way to find success. If he is able to play this much I have little doubt that he will be able to put up his first 30-homer season.

    It will be an interesting season for Miguel Sano, filled with lots of questions. Can he reduce his strikeout rate? How many runs can he drive in? Will he be able to play adequately at third base, or will he be limited to just DHing for the rest of his career?

    YOUR TURN

    Your turn. Share your thoughts on and predictions on Miguel Sano in 2017. We can take a look back at the end of the season and see how we did.

    PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS

    Jason Castro

    Joe Mauer

    Brian Dozier

    Miguel Sano

    Seth Stohs has been blogging about the Minnesota Twins since May 2003. A founder and owner of Twins Daily, Seth has been a Twins fan for 40 years and has a passion for covering the minor leagues and prospects.
    Follow Seth Stohs on Twitter: sethtweets

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    Featured Comments

    hybridbear

    hybridbear 351

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I hope he is able to play adequate defense. Have there been any reports of efforts he's making to improve his defense? I hope that he can learn to cut down on the strikeouts as well. He has a ton of potential.

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    ThejacKmp

    ThejacKmp 2,978

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    My hope for the health front is that Sano is only playing at 3B against right handed starters. When the Twins (hopefully) rest Mauer against most lefties, I hope they take advantage of the situation and put Sano at DH/1B and get Escobar some time at SS/3B. It'll make the defense better and help preserve Sano's health.

     

    I'm hopeful for a bigger year from Sano. He should have much better protection behind him and batters on in front of him. Hopefully get a few more fastballs over the plate.

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    IaFan1

    IaFan1 65

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    His lack of contact is my biggest concern. I think he will be better defensively at 3rd. And I am concerned about him ever living up to the hype he was given.  29HR 84RBI .235BA  200+K's, eeh.

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    mikelink45

    mikelink45 10,958

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I love his potential, I hate his K rate.   At his current rate we can say that he gives up a high percentage of his at bats.  Does this really increase his home runs or does it just reduce batting average and create more pressure for the other batters because they have to play with less outs for moving batters, sacrifice flies and other options. 

     

    When I look at Cabrera and Ortiz I see K rates half of Sano.  Someone has to reach him.  The habit of striking out is hard to break as he goes along, but the potential he has to make things happen when he either makes contact or walk is significant. 

     

    I am hoping ST is just empty stats, but I am concerned.  So I give him a 240 BA, 30 HRs when he should have 40.  I hope to be proven wrong, but Sano will decide.  As for defense, I have nothing to judge it by.  He has been here two years and we did not see enough at 3B to know. 

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    Bob Sacamento

    Bob Sacamento 2,046

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    His lack of contact is my biggest concern. I think he will be better defensively at 3rd. And I am concerned about him ever living up to the hype he was given.  29HR 84RBI .235BA  200+K's, eeh.

    His contact will always be an issue but his power potential along with his ability to work the count and draw walks will always pick him up.  I think Seth's projection line (.253/.346/.506 (.852)) was pretty close to where I'd guess with the Bocaton too

     

     

    An average around .240-.260 with an OBP of .330-.360, and a SLG of .475-.515 with slightly below average defense at 3B, so a slash of somewhere between

     

    .240/.330.475/.805 to .260/.360/.515/.875

     

    which would put him at a 2.5 to 3.5 Win player for 2017 not bad at all for the 23 year old.

    Edited by Bob Sacamento
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    Respy

    Respy 670

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    Sano's success of course largely has to do with his development of making contact at the plate and not chasing pitches.  A small part of it has to do with a pitcher's willingness to pitch to him.  So far, they've been largely uninterested in throwing strikes and fastballs near the plate.  Sano would benefit from having a more productive #5 hitter (yes, more productive than Trevor Plouffe [aside: Plouffe is hitting .425 so far this spring]) so pitchers sometimes feel obliged not to pitch around Sano.  A breakout season from Park or Vargas might do the trick.

     

    If he's healthy, I think we all agree he's a lock for 30 home runs (which is no small feat!).  I'd say 35 homeruns, .250 BA.  And I sure hope he can pass 100 RBI.  

     

    For reference, here's all the Twins who have surpassed 100 RBI this millenium:

     

    Josh Willingham (2012, 110)

    Delmon Young (2010, 112)

    Jason Kubel (2009, 103)

    Justin Morneau (2009, 100; 2008, 129; 2007, 111; 2006, 130)

    Torii Hunter (2007, 107; 2003, 102)

    Michael Cuddyer (2006, 109)

    Corey Koskie (2001, 103)

     

    Could Sano ever eclipse Morneau's high mark of 130?  Killebrew's 140?

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    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,320

  • Community Leader

    • Posted

    To get his 2016 line up to a .260 AVG, Sano would need to add 10 hits, for a resulting BABIP of .371.

     

    That K rate is going to have to come down for that average to go up, and it doesn't look like he's made any progress toward that goal so far this spring.

     

    (Although to be fair, leaguewide AVG is down about 15 points in the last 10 years -- .259 was the MLB non-pitcher average last year. Maybe there's not so much shame in a lower average, although it would cap his upside at "good hitter" rather than "great hitter")

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    Bob Sacamento

    Bob Sacamento 2,046

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

     

    Could Sano ever eclipse Morneau's high mark of 130?  Killebrew's 140?

    Sure he could but RBI's are more of a "team stat". Miggy would have to have a couple of tablesetters in front of him to get up there in the total. If Buxton ever learns to get on base at a steady clip that could happen sooner.

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    Bob Sacamento

    Bob Sacamento 2,046

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    To get his 2016 line up to a .260 AVG, Sano would need to add 10 hits, for a resulting BABIP of .371.

     

    That K rate is going to have to come down for that average to go up, and it doesn't look like he's made any progress toward that goal so far this spring.

    All I'll say is that Kris Bryant took his 2015 K rate from 31% to a 22% in 2016 so it is possible albeit Bryant is a better hitter.  Still if Sano can go from 36% to 28% that will make a huge difference

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    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,320

  • Community Leader

    • Posted

     

    All I'll say is that Kris Bryant took his 2015 K rate from 31% to a 22% in 2016 so it is possible albeit Bryant is a better hitter.  Still if Sano can go from 36% to 28% that will make a huge difference

    That would be huge, but so far Sano is trending the wrong way.

     

    Here are Bryant's spring training K rates:

     

    2014: 55% (11/20)

    2015: 32% (14/44)

    2016: 24% (15/62)

    2017: 21% (12/58)

     

    Here are Sano's to date:

     

    2016: 31% (20/64)

    2017: 43% (22/51)

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    Jham

    Jham 2,495

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    To me, Sano is 1 of 2 players likely to bring premium talent and a legit future ace in a trade. I would give him half a season to improve the k rate, put the team on his back, and show that he's ready to lead this team into contention. Otherwise i'd consider moving him at the deadline. The consensus here is that he's a good hitter, not great, and that k rate and defense and possibly health could prevent him from reaching his ceiling. If you had to bet one way or the other which way do you lean? Do we want to build the team's future around those question marks? How does the rest of the league view him?

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    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 41,021

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    To me, Sano is 1 of 2 players likely to bring premium talent and a legit future ace in a trade. I would give him half a season to improve the k rate, put the team on his back, and show that he's ready to lead this team into contention. Otherwise i'd consider moving him at the deadline. The consensus here is that he's a good hitter, not great, and that k rate and defense and possibly health could prevent him from reaching his ceiling. If you had to bet one way or the other which way do you lean? Do we want to build the team's future around those question marks? How does the rest of the league view him?

     

    If we think he's not great, why would a GM give up 3-4 prospects, including a pitcher in the top 10 - 20 prospects in teh game?

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    caninatl04

    caninatl04 522

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

     

    Finally, a thread where I can use these rose-color sunglasses that came in the mail...

    This will be Sano's breakout year. All-Star representative, adequate defense. Flirts with 40 HRS. Draws nearly 100 walks. OPS close to .900

     

    Can you send me the link to Amazon so I can get myself a pair?

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    Pardon My Dinger

    Pardon My Dinger 5,159

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

    I'm not sure where I read this, but the biggest concern I have for Sano is attitude as he reportedly spends so much club house time on the phone. Once Dozier and Mauer are gone, the team will need leaders.

     

    His agent needs to have a talk with him.

    Must've read it in some ian kinsler quote or something. Edited by Pardon My Dinger
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    Deduno Abides

    Deduno Abides 2,674

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    I'm not sure where I read this, but the biggest concern I have for Sano is attitude as he reportedly spends so much club house time on the phone.  Once Dozier and Mauer are gone, the team will need leaders.

     

    His agent needs to have a talk with him.

     

    They are talking. Sano is saying "Aqui viene eso pendejo, Souhan. Dejame hablar contigo hasta que salga de aqui."

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    Jham

    Jham 2,495

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

    If we think he's not great, why would a GM give up 3-4 prospects, including a pitcher in the top 10 - 20 prospects in teh game?

    Same reason twins gave up Garza for Delmon. Reputation, potential, and lack of 411. That's why i asked what other teams think of him. Our fan base is nervous. I bet other teams are still thinking machado or miggy. If they don't give up premium talent, you keep him and hope for the best. I think there is still a strong market for him. He's 20lb or a couple month slump leading to a .235 ba from getting the "potential bust" label across the league. At that point, it's too late. You're also right. It's possible it's too late already. But i don't have that feeling. I don't think anyone is writing him off, so I'm guessing teams aren't either. My thought is that it could be worth exploring if the league values him over his actual worth.

    Edited by Jham
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    USAFChief

    USAFChief 58,010

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    Same reason twins gave up Garza for Delmon. Reputation, potential, and lack of 411. That's why i asked what other teams think of him. Our fan base is nervous. I bet other teams are still thinking machado or miggy. If they don't give up premium talent, you keep him and hope for the best. I think there is still a strong market for him. He's 20lb or a couple month slump leading to a .235 ba from getting the "potential bust" label across the league. At that point, it's too late. You're also right. It's possible it's too late already. But i don't have that feeling. I don't think anyone is writing him off, so I'm guessing teams aren't either. My thought is that it could be worth exploring of the league values him over his actual worth.

    My guess is, if you are worried, his K's have been noticed by MLB GMs.

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    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 41,021

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    Same reason twins gave up Garza for Delmon. Reputation, potential, and lack of 411. That's why i asked what other teams think of him. Our fan base is nervous. I bet other teams are still thinking machado or miggy. If they don't give up premium talent, you keep him and hope for the best. I think there is still a strong market for him. He's 20lb or a couple month slump leading to a .235 ba from getting the "potential bust" label across the league. At that point, it's too late. You're also right. It's possible it's too late already. But i don't have that feeling. I don't think anyone is writing him off, so I'm guessing teams aren't either. My thought is that it could be worth exploring of the league values him over his actual worth.

     

    Fair, i would not deal him. I think he's still a possible long term 4+ WAR player.

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    diehardtwinsfan

    diehardtwinsfan 14,830

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

     

    All I'll say is that Kris Bryant took his 2015 K rate from 31% to a 22% in 2016 so it is possible albeit Bryant is a better hitter.  Still if Sano can go from 36% to 28% that will make a huge difference

     

    This is what needs to happen.  Problem as I see it is that so far, I'm not sure Sano has shown he's capable of doing this. I have a really bad feeling that Sano ends up in Rochester at some point this year.... and I really really really want to be wrong and will happily eat crow if I am.

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    Jham

    Jham 2,495

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    My guess is, if you are worried, his K's have been noticed by MLB GMs.

    I said that's possible. Only takes 1 GM who needs a slugger. Talent like Sano doesn't come along very often.

     

    We saw what Dozier would bring. Sano is more valuable. If Sano and Buxton go nuts, are we going to have enough pitching around them anyway? Where is the pitching going to come from?

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