2016 Twins Bust Candidates

I get the first two. It is hard to call Suzuki a bust candidate, with the expectations being so low. It is also crazy to me that we are going to give at least half the reps to a guy that can't hit or throw guys out, especially with an almost complete rotation of veterans.

Duffey because he is not going to be able to rely on the hook like he did last year. He probably wasn't a guy that was scouted a ton in the minors. He was never a top prospect.

And I feel like Perkins because he is declining without many realizing he is

Lalalalalala....  Not listening....  Lalalalalalala....

This is always a tough call. Of the three you mention: Tyler Duffey HA been working on a better pitch assortment. He knows he has to add some stuff if he wants to stay in the majors. Given a bad spring by one or two starters, he would be in the rotation, but the $$$'s owed win out. Will Duffey get another chance with the Twins? Will he flame-out at AAA. I think he did what he was supposed to do this spring, but the stars were allined with him. As it stands HE WILL BE THE FIRST GUY called up (no, Berrios is not on the 40-man) and will have to pitch like he has never pitched before (although he already did that at the end of 2015) to get a job anywhere in the majors. Glen Perkins. He can still get guys out. You don't have to throw the fastest. Yes, his seasons may be numbered as the Twins closer, but lets face it...no one has stepped up to challenge him this, or possibly next, season. And he is a lefty and as long as he has juice and craft, he will have a job somewhere as long as he wants. Maybe not as a closer. But... Kurt Suzuki. Well, he was available in 2014 but it seems the leagues passed on him. Why the Twins gave him the contract. Well, who else. A.J. WAS a possibility, not jsut once, but twice, but went elsewhere. The pain is the Twins blew it when they let Ramos go (the though was Mauer would still be catching) and Pinto tanked to be just a hitter. And now the shelf is somewhat bare. You are allowed one light hitting guy in a lineup, and it may be Kurt or Mr. Murphy this year. It is a weak position for the Twins, but Kurt is a gamer, played many many innings in 2016. We may argue about his call of pitches or ability to throw out runners, but everyone warms up in spring training differently. Watch him be dynamite in the opening months, and hopefully the Twins do have a couple of comparable fallbacks after that.

 

I would say the biggest bust is Oswaldo Arcia. I don't know what happened last season when he became damaged goods in the minors. Had very high hopes when he reported to spring training early. But he just doesn't seem to get it. Only 24 or so, he still has years and the talent. But like the other bust, Kennys Vargas, who has to have a dynamtie showing at AAA, and even then he won't be the backup first baseman on call if something happens north...Park will just move over and someone who is hitting and a bench body will eta the call. A couple of lefties had ALL the opportunity to shine and become long-men in the bullpen. Logan Darnell did the switch from starter to bullpen last year, but sat out the last month on the major league roster with an illness. That the Twins were able to keep him and let him try again is a positive. Taylor Rogers was also a name to watch, a dynamite starter last season who could've anchored a spot in the bullpen, but didn't. He will work out of relief, so his name is still in the wings, at least until 40-man rosters are set next season. Max Kepler IS NOT a bust. He is a bonafide prospect. He could've pushed and made the decision making tougher, but a lackluster spring shows he does need more seasoning. This will be his year in the minors. He pretty much ash to make the majors next season. Special Kudos to the team of Quentin and Sweeney who did everything right, but discovered that there was no room in the inn and, seriously, looking at the 40-man roster, not to many names that would make them a quick callup (barring a 60-day disabled list injury). The Twins were a good pfaor minor league free agents a few years ago, but with the wealth of needed-to-protect prospects, you aren't going to be giving that veteran names major league playing time as you did in the past.

Ramos has not been all that for the Nationals. He's only had 2 seasons with over 400 at bats and 1 with over 500 at bats. He has hit .258 with 61 hr's and 68 dbls over 6 years. His one strength seems to be throwing out base stealers with his CS of 33%. But again, he's not been very healthy. If he's have been here with those type of at bat #'s, we'd have seen a lot more of people like Chris Hermann etc.

Ramos has not been all that for the Nationals. He's only had 2 seasons with over 400 at bats and 1 with over 500 at bats. He has hit .258 with 61 hr's and 68 dbls over 6 years. His one strength seems to be throwing out base stealers with his CS of 33%. But again, he's not been very healthy. If he's have been here with those type of at bat #'s, we'd have seen a lot more of people like Chris Hermann etc.

I will add that Wilson Ramos's WAR (whatever you think of it) with the Nationals averages 1.1 per year, which translates as a "Reserve," not a "Starter" and not an "All Star."

So I think enough has been said about that trade being so terrible for the Twins.

You can get injured anywhere, but this move hiked the percentages considerably.

Can you document that with Actuary Tables?

You can get injured anywhere, but this move hiked the percentages considerably.

There’s some intuitive patterns here: shortstops (SS) and center fielders (CF) are near the top, whereas left and right fielders (corner outfielders [cOF]) are towards the bottom. But there’s also some oddness; why are 3Bs the most injured players? The problem with this graph is that we didn’t adjust for age, which as we’ve already seen, is a significant covariate. For example, if pitchers are on average younger (which they are), they might not get injured as often in an absolute sense, yet they may get injured more often than expected, given their age–precisely what we’d like to know. Reframing the question thusly, we arrive at the following graph, charting age-conditioned risk of injury as a function of some positions (check out all positions here):

There’s some intuitive patterns here: shortstops (SS) and center fielders (CF) are near the top, whereas left and right fielders (corner outfielders [cOF]) are towards the bottom. But there’s also some oddness; why are 3Bs the most injured players? The problem with this graph is that we didn’t adjust for age, which as we’ve already seen, is a significant covariate. For example, if pitchers are on average younger (which they are), they might not get injured as often in an absolute sense, yet they may get injured more often than expected, given their age–precisely what we’d like to know. Reframing the question thusly, we arrive at the following graph, charting age-conditioned risk of injury as a function of some positions (check out all positions here):

I will add that Wilson Ramos's WAR (whatever you think of it) with the Nationals averages 1.1 per year, which translates as a "Reserve," not a "Starter" and not an "All Star."   So I think enough has been said about that trade being so terrible for the Twins.

What happened to the negativity police officer???? Did the Yankees sign him away as a free agent or something?

My concern with Perkins is that as a long term member of the Twins they won't remove him as the closer until he's blown 6-7-8 games....  Those lost games could loom large come September.

I'm going to pick Park as the biggest bust, a couple times around the league, they'll figure him out, I'm predicting <15 home runs.