2015 Projections and Rankings: Joe Mauer

280/380/410  I rank him last.  I will take the HRs and I think that Hosmer will build from his series success.   Joe seems to be aging poorly and I have read that he will be rebounding his numbers for three years.  I think he has settled into the definition of a replacement player, not elite, not bad, just a person who can fill a spot. 

Seth,

About a couple months ago, Mauer told CBS Sports that he had left knee problems over the past year. 

http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantasybaseball/update/24994322/twins-joe-mauer-says-his-legs-feel-strong-heading-into-2015

I've read one account that said over the past 2 years, but can't locate that one.

That being said, I'm expecting a much better year (at 1st and at the plate) for Mauer.  .300+ ave. 15+ HR's 45+ 2B's

Joe seems to be aging poorly and I have read that he will be rebounding his numbers for three years. 

Three years?

His 2013 was very good until the concussion (which is out of his control), his 2012 was also very good. So not sure what you were hoping for or how you think he hadn't rebounded. The people telling you he'd rebound must not have known his mean either.

2014 was an off year for him for sure, but he was showing good signs in the 2nd half as he gets further from his concussion.

Mauer is another year removed from concussion. He's had one bad year in the last three years and that was last year, and that was after a concussion ended his 2013. And he's only had one other bad year in his career and that was 2011 when he played 1/2 a season.

I expect his slash line right near his career slash line and a wRC+ in the 130s at minimum.  Wouldn't be surprised if it was in the 140s.  And since this division just happens to have two beasts at 1B in Abreu and Cabrera, that puts him third in the division at 1B, but still top 10 in the majors.

I would rank Mauer 3rd. I think he is a better all around player than Santana, and will likely hit better than Hosmer.

I expect his slash line right near his career slash line and a wRC+ in the 130s at minimum.  Wouldn't be surprised if it was in the 140s.  And since this division just happens to have two beasts at 1B in Abreu and Cabrera, that puts him third in the division at 1B, but still top 10 in the majors.

I second this. I think this is mighty reasonable.

I am fearful that Mauer will continue to suffer from: age/health, better outfield shifting, a bigger strikezone, and adjusting his approach at this point in his career. .265/.345/.395 in 425 PAs.

I'm with WillihMmer. His k rate continues to increase as he ages and his BABIP can't compensate enough. I think he's on the downward arc of his career. An OPS around .740.

Mauer doesn't seem like the type, but he performed a seance one night recently in which he invited Ted Williams' cryogenically frozen head to appear and give him advice. And Ted did. He said, in his irascible way, "Come on, Joe, all you gotta do is hit the ball. They're shifting ya, okay, now make 'em pay!"

 

Not sure if the story is true or not.

 

[Just tuning up my game for the Daily Thread ...]

You forgot where Babe Ruth showed up and told him to clear his head between games with some drinking and carousing and said there was too much damn clean living in baseball these days.  Then he took a deep inhale of his cigar and returned to the baseball diamond (or bar) in the sky.

I think his season will be somewhere between the predictions of Nick and John.

Nick – .315/.410/.445 (.855) with 40 doubles and 10 HR.

John – .300/.380/.400 (780 OPS) with 35 doubles, and 8 HR.

As a Mauer apologist, I am going to be proactive with my excuses for a slow April -- he is known to have slow starts (2009 withstanding - although I guess he completely missed April there) and I think he will have a period of adjustment where he seeks to find the right balance between his traditional way of hitting and the pulling to right field he has been trying to develop this spring.  I think it will take part of the regular season before he gets any  adjustments mastered.

I know it is hard to judge vets by their spring training, esp. when they are trying to do new things, but I would feel a little more confident if his grapefruit season would have been better.

Mauer seems to get pitched outside...a lot. If that continues, I hope he doesn't still try and pull the ball or we're going to continue to see an uptick in 4-3 putouts. or 4-6-3 DPs.  Seems that's what he was trying to do last year as well.

I've never been against Mauer, but he did not get drafted in my fantasy baseball draft. I think that says a lot. 

It says there are a lot of players in your league I'd like to play fantasy baseball with or that your league is small or the format is bad. Or that your players are easily spooked by one bad year. Most fantasy baseball leagues don't count defense other than errors. Many fantasy leagues will think Howard is better than Mauer.  He's not. 

Fantasy Baseball formats often doesn't reflect reality on who is an overall good ballplayer and who isn't. Someone decides what stats deserve the most points which ones deserve too little, which ones don't have any value at all. Most go by the most traditional stats possible.  

Whether or not he's drafted or not by some fantasy players doesn't really tell us anything about what he'll do.

My guess is he becomes 2012 Joe Mauer again.  Maybe even have more power given he's healthy and not catching.  So here is my VERY optimistic guess:  .308/.401/.480 - 40 doubles 19 HR's. 

I think Mauer can get back to .300, but I seriously doubt he can get back to 10 HRs.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-positional-power-rankings-first-base/

Fangraphs have the Twins ranked last at 1st base within the

division. The ranking is based on team value, but I listed the

league rank and the projected WAR rank of the starter:

#2 Tigers Cabrera 4.2 WAR

#5 White Sox Abreu 2.6 WAR

#10 Indians Santana 2.3 WAR

#15 Royals Hosmer 2.4 WAR

#17 Twins Mauer 1.8 WAR

So, based on OPS, you'd agree most then with my .799 OPS prediction?

You are known as one of the more esteemed baseball minds (and perhaps minds in general, that I don't know) in the upper Midwest, so there could be worse predictions with which to agree.

A better hitter than the guy who has won 3 batting titles and has a career line of .319/.401/.459.  Our standards are pretty high for this guy.

I think if he decides to force the issue in order to appease the masses he'll be a worse hitter.  I'd rather let Joe be Joe.  A healthy Joe is an awesome Joe.

If 2009 Joe is what you need to see to say he's awesome then yes, he won't be awesome. That's easy. He was that guy once, which really means he's never been that guy in reality because extreme outliers don't give us a realistic view of what a player's level is.

Tony Gwynn is going to be disappointed you don't think he had an awesome career. Carew too.  Oh, and neither of them had to play catcher for around half their career while doing it.