2014 Post-Mortem: Oswaldo Arcia

Arcia seems to be head strong and coachable at the same time.   He is a visible presence in the dugout.  The first to cheer and the first to high-five.  He did change his hitting approach in the last 2 months and the result was a better average, less strikeouts and more home runs.  I look forward to seeing what he will do in 2015.

Arcia made adjustments and improvements to his swing as the season progressed - especially late in the year. His early season "hand drop" that Roy Smalley pointed out on FSN was almost eliminated (he still reverted from time to time) and his ability to identify and lay off of breaking pitches seemed to improve later in the year as well.

He's 23 years old, so there's absolutely no reason to bail on him yet. I wouldn't platoon him or bench him (if he slumps) in 2015. Let him ride out the lows and keep learning on the job. He has talent, and as evidenced by the late season improvement - the drive to make the best of that talent.

Does anyone recall what the ceiling for Arcia was supposed to be while he was a prospect? Were they comparing him to guys like Carlos Lee, Nelson Cruz, Juan Gonzalez, etc. or was he expected to be more like a 20 Homers / 20 doubles kind of player?

 

If he continues to improve, I could see him reaching 25-30 HRs a year.

Some times I picture a comparison to what people thought Jason Kubel's ceiling was with maybe a little more power, a little lower batting average and quite a few more strikeouts. Kubel raked in a balanced way in the minors, but with the rebuilt knee sort of became a .270 guy with some power. That's who I think of when I look at Arcia's minor league numbers.

"If he stagnates, Twins fans will move on to look for someone else to be their power-hitting right fielder-- Adam Brett Walker anyone?"

Really?  We're talking about this already?  Morneau, Hunter, Cuddyer, Gomez, Dozier all had their break-out season between ages 25-27 (full-season in Morneau's case).

Next year is not a big year for Arcia.  It's a prime learning and development year.  There should be zero reason to think of platooning him or anything silly.  He needs tons of at-bats, and there's no other way around it.  More importantly, he especially needs at-bats against lefties to even out those splits...not to hit the bench.  

Along the way, there are going to be lots of moments that aren't pretty, but this kid has already proven major MLB power, had an .800+ OPS in the 2nd half of the year and has had absurd success at all levels in the minors.  The idea that Adam Walker (maybe half the prospect of Arcia and only 5 months younger) or any other minor league prospect in the system outside of Buxton should challenge Arcia in the next 3 years is really difficult for me to even entertain. 

I'm the biggest Walker fan out there and I'm not even talking Walker over Arcia.  Arcia is only 23 years old and has a helluva future.   I heard yesterday that Mike Trout led the AL in strikeouts and is still the favorite to win the MVP.  Trout also led the AL in RBI and hit loads of HRs.  With that being the case for Trout, why would anyone become pestimistic about Arcia.  He has the ability to maybe become not as great as the MVP, but damn sure good enough to be a big time player for the Twins.  So many bloggers want MVP talent or bust.  Arcia was a major factor in the Twins becoming one of the top scoring teams in baseball.  Let the 23 year old grow without so much concern.

I like Oswaldo a lot - he is very fan-friendly, he as an elite tool in power, and he projects well given his minor league numbers.

Too often he was put in the role of the guy who has to do it, and as our lineup gets better, so will he.

Even the presence of Kennys Vargas improved his performance markedly, to the point he almost overtook Dozier for HR lead on the team.

23 years old, and some good learning experience and 34 HR MLB homers in his pocket. He is a total stud imo. 

BTW, he is 5 months older than Adam Brett Walker.

We are just scratching the surface with Oswaldo.

I'm not sure I was clear, in my post.....I think he has a shot to be quite good. I don't think we know that he is yet, and he should play. I'm not convinced something changed, but if it did, and it worked, great. But the story that something changed is used a lot, so I am always skeptical.

 

What I saw in the first half and a little beyond was a guy that was in love with the long ball to the exclusion of everything else.  Specifcally what I saw was a guy swinging too hard, stepping toward first base and trying to pull everything.   What I saw later in the year was a willingness to take a pitch every once in a while and a guy striding toward the pitcher with more balance.    I am the eternal optimist and never understand why a guy that hit .314 in the minors all of a sudden has a ceiling of .260 just because of a couple seasons of worse.  This is where a batting coach can be valuable in getting him to swing faster (NOT harder) and get closer to what he was doing in the minors.   Look  at the guy and look at the swing.   Power is not going to go away.   It appeared to me he started trying to hit the ball back up the middle and let his naturaly power swing take over later in the season instead of forcing it.   Always reminds me of a golf swing.   You can occasionally hit the ball a long way by swinging hard but you will do it a lot more often by swinging properly.   I think he is capable of swinging properly.. 

The thing you fail to mention is that Brunansky was working extensively with Arcia, during the latter part of the season. In September, Arcia posted a line of .263/.330/.513...  Anyone watching him could see there was a significant change in his approach at the plate during the last six weeks of the season, compared to early in the season... If you're going to write about a topic you need to tell the whole story, not just a glossed-over overview of a situation... Based on what I saw towards the end of the season, I think 2015 could be a break-through season for Arcia...

Agree completely.  All of September I saw him going to the opposite field more than the first five months combined.  Hit lefties much better.  Bruno needs to get some props for his improvement, I believe.

His defense drives me nuts. He has a strong arm, but it seems like he almost would go brain dead on what base to throw to sometimes and he missed the cut off man way to often for my liking.  These things should be second nature to him by now and they aren't.  Everyone talks about his bat, but he needs to be able to play decently in the field and he sure isn't there yet.

I flip flop on my opinion of him. Undeniable power swing, undeniably high K rate. Swings at pitches out of the strike zone. Sucker for a good curve ball. Looks lost in the OF. Closes his eyes on plays, makes bad reads, throws to wrong base, misses cutoff guys.

Then I think...he's 23. And I cut him some slack.

I like Arcia a lot, but most of all I like what Tom Brunansky has done with him over the last half of the season.  2015 could be a breakout year, still at age 23.