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At the time, it made perfect sense. Even Auburn couldn’t figure out exactly where to play Edouard Julien on the field. As a freshman, he started 59 games between designated hitter, first base, and second base. As a sophomore, he started 62 games at third base. There was no question about his bat, though. That belonged in the lineup. His final game as a Tiger saw these worlds collide. Against Mississippi State in the College World Series, Julien hit a massive two-run home run in the top of the second inning to give the Tigers a 2-0 lead. It was a 429-foot blast to right field that, at the time, was tied for the longest in the history of TD Ameritrade Park. He later singled in another run to push the lead to 3-0. In the bottom of the final frame, the Tigers gave up two run, but still had the lead. One out away. Tying run 90 feet from home. And a routine ground ball to third base. Three batters later, Mississippi State was celebrating their walk-off victory. No one would have blamed Julien for going back to Auburn to try to help his team back to Omaha. But money - nearly a half million dollars - talks and the Twins now have one of the best guys at getting on base in all the minor leagues. Age: 23 (DOB: 4/30/1999)2022 Stats: (AA): 508 PA, .300/.441/.490, 17 HR, 67 RBI, 19 SB, 98 BB, 125K. (AFL) 96 PA, .400/.563/.686, 5 HR, 17 RBI, 6 SB, 23 BB, 22K.ETA: 20232022 Ranking: 19National Top 100 RankingsBA: NR | MLB: NR | ATH: NR | BP: NR What's To Like The bat. The eye. The legs. Julien's entire offensive arsenal is loaded. In an offseason that saw the Twins offload Luis Arraez, the organization has a ready-made replacement. Julien has been able to get on base in almost 44% of his minor-league plate appearances. You could make a pretty good argument that no one is better suited to bat lead-off. He's stolen 53 bases over the last two seasons. He has slugged nearly .500, you could argue that his bat belongs right in the middle of the lineup. You could literally make any argument you wanted about getting Julien in the lineup because he is prolific with the bat in his hands and a lineup with him in it is better than one without. What's Left to Work OnIf you're talking about someone with an elite offensive package and he's only #5 on the team's prospect rankings, you've either got the best system in baseball (it's not that) or there is something significant that sticks out that needs to be talked about here. The Twins - like Auburn - have used Julien all over defensively. He's started double-digit games in his career at first base, second base, third base, and left field. And as you slide down the defensive totem pole as Julien has (and Arraez did), it makes the presence of elite offensive skills even more important. Because the last stop is as a designated hitter. Ideally, Julien either finds a comfortable home (second base? left field?), but the most likely scenario involves him being used all over the infield and in left field. There's a lot of work to do here yet, but the reality remains that Julien is a low-ceiling defender. What's Next After a successful full-season run at Wichita followed by an outstanding fall in Arizona, Julien will almost assuredly start his season in St. Paul. From there, what happens in 2023 is going to be dependent on a handful of things. Assuming the bat doesn't regress, Julien will get ample opportunities to hone his defensive skills in the infield and, likely, in the outfield. But the performance and health of those above him will be the biggest factor. Before all that, though, Julien will compete for Team Canada in the WBC. Julien figures to get plenty of plate appearances and will likely find himself playing second base. Will he use this opportunity as a springboard for his upcoming season? Luis Arraez got an opportunity and ran with it all the way to a batting title. Maybe that's all Julien needs too... and the defensive side will sort itself out in time. Previous InstallmentsHonorable Mention Prospects 21-30 Prospects 16-20 Prospects 11-15 Prospect #10: Austin Martin, SS Prospect #9: Louie Varland, RHP Prospect #8: Jose Salas, INF Prospect #7: Connor Prielipp, LHP Prospect #6: Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP Prospect #5: Edouard Julien, 2B

Many Twins players have already reported to Fort Myers in eager anticipation of the 2023 season. Spring training is even more important for some players this season because they are battling for a roster spot. Minnesota has added depth at multiple positions, which means other players are pushed down the depth chart. For many of the battles, health is the most significant factor, so who will win these battles in the coming weeks? Starting Rotation Battle There are many questions about the Twins' rotation. Is Tyler Mahle healthy? No one knows how his shoulder will hold up as he ramps up for the season. How will Kenta Maeda return from Tommy John surgery? Maeda had a chance to return last season, but the Twins fell out of contention and didn't rush him back. Would the team consider a six-man rotation to keep players healthy? Bailey Ober is the odd man out in the rotation if everyone is healthy at the conclusion of spring training. Ober is the next man up from Triple-A if there is an injury. Potentially, the Twins could push a starter into a bullpen role to keep the player on the Opening Day roster. There is also a stable of young pitchers waiting in the wings, including Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson. There is depth there, but there are no guarantees everyone will be healthy on Opening Day. Bench Battle Many of the team's bench spots are already locked in, but the team can still go in a different direction. The Twins presumed bench is Ryan Jeffers, Kyle Farmer, Michael A. Taylor , and Nick Gordon. Staying healthy will be vital to keeping the team's bench depth. Gordon currently occupies the last-position player spot on the roster, but he is out of minor-league options, so he likely makes the team. Alex Kirilloff is returning from surgery, but there is no guarantee he will be ready for Opening Day. When spring training starts, the Twins can move Royce Lewis and Chris Paddack to the 60-day IL and open new 40-man roster spots. This could allow a veteran player to be added as a third catcher, or there will likely be a need for Kyle Garlick to be a bench bat in 2023. Gilberto Celestino has been part of the Twins roster over the last two seasons, but he's likely headed to Triple-A. Bullpen Battle Many of the roster decisions above aren't as complicated if everyone is healthy at the start of the season. The bullpen is another story, with eight spots to fill and multiple decisions on the table. Five bullpen spots are locked in with Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, and Emilio Pagan. In Twins Daily's roster projections, the final three bullpen spots are currently occupied by Jorge Alcala, Jovani Moran, and Trevor Megill. All three of these players have minor league options remaining, which helps the team have some roster flexibility. Alcala was limited to just two appearances in 2022 due to an elbow issue that eventually required surgery, so there is no guarantee he is at full strength. Moran and Megil pitched at Triple-A last year and are candidates to take the train back and forth from St. Paul in 2023. Other bullpen options could emerge this spring, especially from other 40-man roster options like Ronny Henriquez, Cole Sands, and Josh Winder. The Twins used 38 different pitchers last season, so all of these players will be needed at some point in the coming season. Who will emerge from those roster battles? Which relievers will get the final spots in the bullpen? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

Derek Falvey rustled some feathers the other day when, in an article written by Phil Miller of the Star Tribune, the exec said, "[i]f we were to do anything at this point, it would likely be to add depth in the middle [innings]. We'll keep an open mind, but [relief pitching is] not a priority." It’s a shockingly straightforward answer not saturated with Falvey’s typical lawyer-ish flourishes. Falvey and Miller covered the gambit in reliever talk in that article; I recommend people read the entire piece before outraging (that will never happen). Initially, it’s tough to accept Falvey’s evaluation. I watched the same 2022 Twins team he did, and that squad specialized in blowing games in the late innings. They often failed to hold leads in games that really should have won. Cleveland proved to be a special problem, as Minnesota handed out late wins like Costco free samples as Tyler Thornburg and his ilk tried their darndest to not be a part of the problem. It didn't work, and they finished with the seventh-most meltdowns, a quick-and-dirty Fangraphs stat that uses win probability to determine poor reliever performance. But you don’t need to hear it from a number: that bullpen stunk. Perhaps we’re looking at the issue too broadly, though. Yes, the relief corps was terrible in the first half of the season—Fangraphs pegged them as the 2nd worst in MLB—but they didn’t remain static. Michael Fulmer and Jorge López joined the squad. Caleb Thielber emerged as a tremendous, reliable arm. People with eyes determined that Emilio Pagán should probably not pitch late in games. Evolution took its course. Quietly, so silent that no one cared to notice, the Twins bullpen improved drastically in the second half. Sure, they couldn’t fall further than before, but their bullpen now ranked 4th in MLB in FIP, only sitting behind the blue-blood organizations who consistently dominate the pitching charts. Part of that may be the inherent randomness in reliever performance, but tangible changes appeared to afflict the Twins for the better. Take it from Falvey: "I feel like we saw a lot of progress as last season went on, and within a group that still can make even more progress as they gain experience." Bullpens aren’t made of numbers. People pitch those innings, at least for now. Minnesota’s group includes four arms dancing around one year of MLB service time with another, Jorge Alcalá, who is about as green as the others. Is it unreasonable to believe that Jovani Moran succeeds in an expanded role, Griffin Jax finds another gear, or Trevor Megill fully realizes his strikeout potential? Jhoan Duran will continue melting faces in the near future. The teams main worry will be the complimenting pieces always at risk for the bullpen randomness bug; there's nothing that signing Corey Knebel would do to alleviate that. The issue with the Twins bullpen is perhaps one of perception: because they seemingly blew an incalculable number of games in 2022, they appear incompetent, doomed to blow games again. But that may not be fair. As this author noted in July, relievers are an odd group, one whose jobs rely on the starting pitcher's effectiveness; it could be an all-hand-on-deck night, or Rocco Baldelli may only need the services of two arms the do the job. Given Minnesota’s dreadfully short starting pitching, the bullpen felt an extreme strain. Much of those games were technically the fault of the relief corps, but part of the battle is placing those arms in a position to succeed; Minnesota lost that fight consistently in 2022. And they likely won’t have to carry that weight in 2023. With plenty of wood knocking, the 2023 Twins rotation appears a more trustworthy bunch than their previous counterparts. Swapping Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer for Kenta Maeda and Pablo López gives them a deep rotation. No arm sticks out as truly dominant, but their reliability should feed into the bullpen, removing pressure and allowing its hierarchy to remain intact. The days of Jharel Cotton saving games are over. It is risky. Fewer outcomes in baseball are less aesthetically pleasing than a late blown lead; the win should have been in hand, after all. If López doesn’t regain his Orioles form, Alcalá fails to show the improvement he flashed in 2021, or if any of the breakout 2022 arms regress, it could be a tough summer to bear.

The impact of the bullpen on a team's fate can often be overstated by fans, which is understandable. Not to get into specifics, but ... a certain reliever melting down several times in close games against a division rival lingers in memory more starkly than, say, the offense that couldn't build a sufficient lead, or the starter who couldn't go deep enough to prevent that scenario. Many fans will tell you the bullpen was the primary downfall of the 2022 Twins. Is that true? Not really. Their bullpen ranked 20th among MLB teams in fWAR, 16th in ERA, 14th in FIP, compared to a rotation that ranked 21st, 20th, and 18th respectively. The offense, which was supposed to be the engine driving a competitive team, ranked 17th in the majors in runs scored. Notably, the Twins bullpen ranked 29th in fWAR in the first half last year, but improved to FOURTH in the second half, once they'd parted ways with the likes of Tyler Duffey and Joe Smith. They weren't just improved in the latter portion of the campaign, after ironing out an uninspiring opening group – they were elite. All of which is to say they're not working from as lousy of an existing base as many seem to perceive or assume. The front office's decision to bypass any significant offseason RP additions – which now seems all but affirmed, with Michael Fulmer and Andrew Chafin both coming off the market in the past few days – is justifiable on merit. That said, failing to properly build a deep and resilient bullpen can be a costly misstep that fans won't be eager to forgive. Even if it's sometimes exaggerated, there's no question that the bullpen plays a vital role in any team's success, and is often a key differentiator between the good and the great. Is this group up to snuff? The team is placing it's chips on a series of outcomes shaking out mostly the right way, in order to fulfill the vision of a bullpen suited to a World Series contender: The Twins are betting on Jhoan Durán holding up. He's one of the best relievers in baseball, so Durán would serve as a linchpin in almost any bullpen makeup. But the Twins are set to once again lean hard on him for the late innings, because there is so much uncertainty surrounding him (as we'll discuss). The big right-hander was remarkably healthy and durable last year, but he was limited to 16 total innings in 2021 by an elbow strain. He throws about as hard as any pitcher in history, so the injury concerns are self-evident and unignorable. The Twins can't do much about that other than manage and protect his arm to their best ability, but if they wanted some peace of mind, they might've shelled out or traded for a big-name reliever to serve as co-ace of the bullpen. The Rafael Montero to their Ryan Pressly, if you will. Alas, it's possible – maybe even probable – that the front office feels it already accomplished this at the deadline last year: The Twins are betting on Jorge López getting back on track. If López and Durán are both pitching at a level approximating their work in the first half last year, they provide Minnesota with one of the most dominant 1-2 punches at the back end of any bullpen. This no doubt played a major role in the front office's strategy during a 2022 deadline that seemed as much oriented toward strengthening the '23 club as boosting their chances for the stretch run. The plan can still work, and the Twins are counting on it. López's results dropped off big-time after the trade last year, but it was only 23 innings and the stuff was still there. If his drop-off didn't coincide directly with switching teams, it probably would've been less noticeable, and we'd have been more inclined to judge his overall body of work – 71 IP, 2.54 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 4 HR allowed – as a tremendously encouraging first go as a full-time reliever. Merely replicating that overall level of performance for the full season would make López a worthy setup man or closer. But if getting comfortable while making adjustments brings him back closer to the level of his All-Star first half, the Twins have two powerhouses lurking at the back of the bullpen. They'll be the envy of almost every team in the league. The Twins are betting on Emilio Pagán proving doubters wrong. The doubters are many, and they have ample evidence to support their stance. Pagán authored from the mound some of this team's lowest moments in 2022. His propensity for hanging meatballs that got launched 450 feet at dire moments was legendary ... and it's a rep that's now been following him around for a while. And yet. The Twins believe in the quality of his stuff and they are not alone. Perhaps they feel it started to shine through in the second half and down the stretch, with help from a new breaking ball swapped in for the cutter. After posting a 5.23 ERA in the first half, Pagán lowered that figure to 3.56 in the second half – including 2.16 ERA in his final 16 ⅔ innings, during which he held opponents to a .170/.279/.288 with only one home run allowed. The overpowering arsenal is undeniable, and in the latter stage of the season – under tutelage from a rearranged coaching staff featuring Pete Maki and Colby Suggs – Pagán finally started to unlock it. Or so the Twins are betting. The Twins are betting on unproven middle relief options coming through. Griffin Jax looked very good last year in his transition to relief, but posted a 6.37 ERA the prior season as a rookie. Caleb Thielbar was phenomenal following a rocky start, but he's 36 and was out of pro baseball a few years ago. Jorge Alcalá undoubtedly has the stuff to dominate righties, but missed nearly all of last season with an elbow injury. Add in the likes of Trevor Megill and Jovani Moran, and you've got a great deal of high-end potential within the middle tier of his bullpen mix – including some very viable setup candidates – but also substantial question marks relating to age, injury, track record, or otherwise. The argument for adding another veteran reliever is that you can mitigate some of this uncertainty with more of a proven commodity. The argument against it is that you might be limiting well-earned opportunities for some of the guys lower on the list. Moran for example posted a 2.21 ERA while averaging 12.0 K/9 and allowing zero homers in 41 innings for the Twins last year, and he's about to turn 26. Does he really deserve to be buried back in Triple-A with another vet of questionable superiority stacked above him on the depth chart? The Twins are betting on manufacturing relief arms over the course of the season. Even if the Twins are mostly right about the pitchers mentioned above, they'll need to rely on an influx of talent throughout the course of the season, because that's always the case. The underlying premise seems to be one guiding this front office philosophically from a bullpen standpoint: we can find them. Maybe that means extracting good performances out of minor-league signings and waiver claims, such as Danny Coulombe and Oliver Ortega. They've been okay at that, on the fringes. But really, it comes down to identifying pitchers from a wide-ranging pool of flawed starters who can elevate into true relief weapons. We saw this last year with Durán and Jax, and I suspect the Twins feel they're only scratching the surface. Keep a close eye on names like Josh Winder, Ronny Henriquez, Jordan Balazovic, Blayne Enlow, and Brent Headrick as candidates to shift to relief and make a major big-league impact. This philosophy that basically boils down to, "Capable relievers are everywhere, but volatile, why pay a premium?" is not exactly unique to the Twins, but it's one they're embracing with all their might. And it might ultimately play a huge role in defining their success this season. Let's hope they're right on that bet, and the others inherent to a status quo offseason for the Minnesota bullpen.

Born in Northfield, Minnesota, Caleb Thielbar calls the same state home as Thielen does. When Thielbar went to South Dakota State, the Jackrabbits were a Division II program. They transitioned to Division I during his final two seasons there. Playing in Brookings, it’s not at all surprising that the lefty went relatively overlooked, but by this point in his Major League career, the story should be equally inspiring. Both Thielen and Thielbar beat the odds when considering how small their towns are. Detroit Lakes does boast a population of nearly 10,000 people, while Thielbar's Randolph claims less than 500. Thielen didn't pick up a football scholarship offer from Mankato until the summer following his senior year, and it took Thielbar multiple stints with the independent version of the Saints before he was discovered again. The Milwaukee Brewers took Thielbar in the 18th round of the 2009 Major League Baseball draft. The only player drafted in that round that year to make a positive impact in the majors is Marcus Stroman, although he didn't sign, went to college at Duke and was drafted in the first round three years later as a pitcher rather than a shortstop. Given the rounds and depth brought in through the draft, Thielbar’s positioning did not at all help his chances for success. It wasn’t until 2011 that Thielbar made his way to the Twins organization, and he didn’t make it to the big leagues for another two years after that. As a 26-year-old reliever, the lefty appeared on May 20 against the Atlanta Braves and threw two shutout innings with a trio of strikeouts. Thielbar posted a 1.76 ERA that season, but the Twins were so bad that his performance was largely overlooked. A year later, in 2014, the strikeouts slipped and so did the overall performance. By 2015, Thielbar was out of affiliated baseball altogether. Using two strong stints with the St. Paul Saints, Thielbar provided the Twins with opportunity to scout him close to home. Boasting sub 3.00 ERA's in 2016 and 2017, he parlayed the success into minor league deals with the Detroit Tigers and Atlanta Braves in 2018 and 2019. Resurfacing during the 2020 covid-shortened season with Minnesota, Thielbar is showcased in a wonderful piece by The Athletic’s Dan Hayes. Having all but given up hope on professional baseball after Atlanta did not call him up in 2019, Thielbar decided to move on to coaching in the Division II ranks with Augustana. Conveniently for this narrative, the South Dakota school is nicknamed the Vikings, and they play in the same conference as Thielen’s Mavericks. Fortunately for the Twins, Brad Steil and the team's pro scouts saw his numbers and improved "stuff" and convinced Thielbar to give it one more try. Despite having been away from the game for a time, Thielbar posted a 2.25 ERA across 20 innings on a team that hosted a home playoff series. He was still a crafty lefty, but now he brought a new strikeout sprinkle to his game and tallied a career best 9.9 K/9. Fast forward to where we are now, and Thielbar enters 2023 with a career-high $2.4 million salary, and being able to lay claim as one of baseball’s most underrated relievers. For Rocco Baldelli, Thielbar will be one of just two assumed lefties in the pen. Alongside second-year arm Jovani Moran, Thielbar can be expected to provide plenty of high-leverage innings. His 2.42 FIP tells a better story of his 2022 than the 3.49 ERA, and it’s really the career best 12.1 K/9 that deserves excitement. Having dropped his walk rate each of the past two years, and continuing to be stingy with homers, Thielbar is as good of a weapon as Minnesota has in the pen. Although Major League Baseball rules now mandate a pitcher must face three batters, and Thielbar is better against lefties, he is relatively matchup proof. Last season he held right-handed hitters to a .226 average as opposed to .225 for lefties. Righties did get him for a .634 OPS as opposed to just .575 against lefties, but he doesn’t strike fear in a manager when needing to get big outs. For a bullpen that has a fireballer like Jhoan Duran at the back, it’s incredible that someone like Thielbar can bring such a successful different look. Thielbar will never throw triple-digits, and his 92.9 mph average last season was a career-best. Still, generating soft contact along with swings and misses is something he’s done by knowing exactly what he brings to the table. Among Minnesota’s arbitration decisions this winter, Thielbar had to be one of the easiest. He’s now a 36-year-old, and it’s been a decade since he debuted. The journey to get here was an interesting one, but he’s now a key cog for the Twins bullpen in 2023. It’s improbable we see Thielbar named to an All-Star team or given national recognition, but make no mistake, Thielbar is every bit the success story that the Vikings have experienced with Adam Thielen. Sometimes the hometown hero is Joe Mauer, Paul Molitor, or Dave Winfield. Other times, it’s the grinder that has to do everything it takes in order to make their own opportunities.