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Showing content with the highest reputation on 10/22/2022 in all areas

  1. The Twins previous offseason was a flurry of surprising moves. A team that was typically pretty quiet and tame in terms of their acquisitions made several big trades in an attempt to return to relevance in the standings. Unfortunately, this didn’t come to fruition, but is it possible that parting with their starting third baseman and new shortstop actually better positioned them? The Twins Trade Away Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa Despite the remaining 2 years and $42m remaining on his contract, the Twins traded Donaldson to the Bronx last winter with whispers swirling that he had worn out his welcome. The former MVP played in 135 games in 2021, his most since his fantastic 2019, but still had modest results. Seeking to cleanse the clubhouse and avoid a potential drop off in production, this side of the Twins gamble worked. Donaldson continued causing issues in New York and he had his worst offensive year since 2012. He slashed .222/.308/.374, 3% below league average despite the harsh offensive environment. His defense did rebound and he stayed healthy for 132 games, but it’s safe to say the Twins are happy with this decision. Isiah Kiner-Falefa wasn’t on the Twins long enough to even have jerseys made, having been acquired shortly before in the Mitch Garver deal. The assumed starting shortstop, IKF had a reputation as a gamer even though he lacked any standout skills. He had the kind of season you’d expect from the light-hitting infielder, slashing .261/.314/.327. As usual, his defense was good or bad depending on the metric. This pair being shipped out allowed the Twins to sign Correa, who undeniably provided significantly more value than their initial plan at shortstop. IKF wasn’t even the starting shortstop more often than not come playoff time for the Yankees, a testament to how this trade just did not work out for New York at all. The Twins Receive Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela Gary Sanchez had a strange year. The Yankees just didn’t want him behind the plate anymore regardless of his bat, so naturally he came to Minnesota and his skills behind the plate became his carrying tool. His .205/.282/.377 line was surprisingly bad, as his standout bat completely cratered but his framing and general defense was his boon. In other circumstances it’s possible Sanchez would have either lost significant playing time or not finish the season on the team. Injuries, however, had him starting near everyday. His struggles will likely cost him this winter, as it’s doubtful a team will suddenly see him as a plus-defender and it seems the Twins were left holding the bag on his offensive dropoff. Gio Urshela was the prize of this deal. Similar to Kiner-Falefa, defensive metrics conflict on his value, but he routinely makes some eye-popping plays at the hot corner. His .285/.338/.429 slash line was a trip back to his 2019 and 2020 peak offensive seasons, both of which looked to be a product of the juiced ball and a shortened schedule. Sure enough however, Urshela was one of the Twins few bright spots down the stretch, and surely played himself into being tendered a contract for 2023. “Winning a trade” is all about opinion. Some argue the aggregate value tells the story, others like to be receiving the best player in the deal. In the Twins case, they won on both measures. Donaldson (1.6) and Kiner-Falefa (1.3) combined for 2.9 fWAR in comparison to Sanchez (1.3) and Urshela (2.4) equaling 3.7. If that wasn’t convincing enough, consider that Donaldson has another year remaining for $21m plus another $8M guaranteed in the form of a 2024 buyout. No longer a middle of the order bat and at increased risk for another injury, possible disaster looms for whatever team he’s on in 2023. IKF also has one remaining arbitration year, which is likely to either get non-tendered or traded after failing to nail down the shortstop job with several prospects on the horizon for the Yankees. On the Twins end, they certainly could’ve done better than Gary Sanchez with the $9m he was paid, but that was the cost of doing business and he’s off their books moving forward. Urshela’s arbitration value will likely settle around $9-10m, a reasonable price if he approaches anything near his 2022 output. In both the 2022 season and moving forward, this deal has created headaches on the Yankees side while the Twins undoubtedly became a better team as a result. This is without even mentioning the door to the Correa signing that was opened. Biases aside, it’s hard not to call this trade a win for the Twins. It wouldn’t be a stretch to say that even Yankee fans would agree. There’s a chance this deal evens back out based on Donaldson’s or Kiner-Falefa’s performances in 2023, but there’s a better chance it gets even worse. Do you agree that this was a massive win for the Twins? Is it too early to make a determination? Let us know below!
    8 points
  2. The trade was addition by subtraction. Anything beyond that was a bonus.
    6 points
  3. In 2010, as Target Field was set to open its first season, Jim Pohlad was quoted about the Twins future payrolls relative to the previous season's 95 million dollar payroll: “We’re not going to spend the money just to spend the money,” he said. “It wouldn’t hurt if it dropped below, in my opinion, occasionally. But we’re going to try to put the best team on the field in the most prudent financial way. I think we accomplished that this year. At least on paper, we’re getting our money’s worth.” In 2022, when asked about his franchise's payroll, San Diego Padres principal owner Peter Seidler had this to say: “This is about baseball for me and our organization. Fans never ask me, ‘What do you think about spending that much?’ They never ask me that. They say, ‘Man, I love to go out to see Machado and Tatis and Croney. That’s what I get. Why do it? Did we give up too much? That’s about 10 percent of what I’m thinking. I think, what makes San Diego different than 29 other markets? But we certainly have conviction, there no equivocating about that. The fluidity is always there. We’re an active organization. We love where we’re at." As the Padres prepare for Game 3 of the NLCS, and their second consecutive season of fielding a highly competitive, legitimate World Series contending roster, I thought it would be interesting to compare the situations of two franchises that are going in dramatically different directions. In 1984, Carl Pohlad purchased the Minnesota Twins for 44 million dollars. Flash forward to 2022, and the franchise value has appreciated to a reported 1.4 billion dollars, a roughly 32-fold increase in 38+ years of ownership. Note that the the Pohlad ownership group's estimated net worth is 3.8 billion. In 2012, a new ownership group consisting of members of the O'Malley baseball family purchased the San Diego Padres for 800 million. Peter Seidler, an O'Malley grandson, emerged as principal owner in 2020. The franchise value has appreciated to a reported 1.5 billion. Seidler's personal net worth is a reported 3 billion. Franchise revenues, as estimated by Statista, reports the Padres with 282 million in revenue in 2021, and the Twins with 268 million. In 2019, both franchises generated revenues of 297 million. The Padres play in Petco Park, built with public funds and opened in 2004, six years prior to Target Field opening, but of a similar generation of stadium design and capacity. Both teams retain rights to revenues from concessions and suites. (Remember, this was a significant argument in favor of building Target Field-the Twins revenues would jump significantly , and therefore payroll, because of the additional concessions and suites revenues from Target Field, which the Twins did not receive at the Metrodome.) In 2020, when Seidler assumed control of the franchise. San Diego was situated nationally as the 27th ranked metro area in TV market share (Minneapolis/St Paul ranked 14th). And yet, the Padre's payroll coming into this season started at 218 million, 5th highest in MLB, and after the Soto trade in August, probably at or slightly above the 230 million CBT level. The Padres' payrolls have increased since 2019 from 74 to 230 million and from 24th in MLB to 5th. The Twins have increased from 113 to 137 million in the same period, and from 18th to 17th in MLB. We have spent much time and digital ink on TD debating the finer points of creating a 2023 payroll within the constraints of the Twins way of doing business. But we are never addressing the elephant in the room. The Twins way of doing business is not working. It has not worked for 30 years. Here is Jim Pohlad again, from the same MinnPost article, on the status of the roster coming into 2010: "And Pohlad stressed that qualifying for postseason alone was no longer good enough for an organization that has lost five consecutive playoff series since 2002, three of them to the Yankees. He even appeared to guarantee a future world championship, without specifying when. “I hear that we’ve got to do better, or get better, so that when we face the Yankees (we’re competitive),” he said. “I hope we’re not a team that’s intimidated by the Yankees. I don’t believe we are. I’m personally not intimidated by the Yankees or the Yankee organization. We just need to, every year, get better, so that whoever we face, that we will be able to advance. “Teams mature. I don’t know where the core of our team is on the maturity level or the peak level, but I don’t think we’re at peak yet. Our core group of players is still very young. The future is very strong, and we will advance past the first round of the playoffs, into the World Series, and to the White House.” Thirteen years on, what has changed? That they have loosened the pocketbook ever so slightly for the likes of Correa is not encouraging, given that they did that only after clearing other contracts first. Adding one elite player in isolation, on a heavily hedged one year bet, while not adding equivalent commitments to other areas of the roster, is hardly a sign the Twins are about to join the big boys club. The Twins have the means to do better but simply choose not to do so. All that said, it is also clear that with AJ Preller the Padre's have a GM who is not afraid to take risks with talent evaluation and acquisition. He developed a farm system that allowed for major trades along the way. But they also were not looking to squeeze pennies for value from every trade, every prospect, and every FA signing. They swung big, winning some. and losing some. But the overall outcome is undeniably positive, for the franchise, for the city, and for the fans. I love that Seidler speaks about the fans and what drives their interest in the team. It's about competing, with top-tier talent, and a healthy aversion to risk for the sake of competitiveness. This is not reckless spending. It is analytical in the best sense, recognizing the risk involved, and accepting that risk as the cost of doing business, if one defines the cost of doing business as running an organization that exudes an unyielding commitment to fielding a competitive roster year in and year out. I cannot imagine this type of thinking in the current iteration of One Twins Way. That needs to change if the Twins are going to develop into the consistent contender the fans want and deserve. Change starts at the top. The Padres drew 2.9 million fans in the 2022 regular season, from a metro population of 1.5 million. The Twins drew 1.8 million fans, from a metro population of 3.7 million. Memo to the Pohlads: spending is its own reward.
    5 points
  4. Game7-91

    Change Starts at the Top

    I frame the issue from the perspective of investment, rather than spending. It may sound semantic, but for a business like MLB, it seems to me the perspective Seidler speaks from when he says cost is 10% of what he is thinking about. It's the venture capitalist vs. the banker, as Wabene's earlier post pointed out regarding Seidler's approach. SD, designated as a "small market" for the entirety of its existence, has reformulated its entire culture because of a shift in vision. It had to come from somewhere, and Seidler seems to be the driver. I would like to see what is produced on the field by the Twins management treated similarly, investing, not expensing. That's it really. Throwing money at the biggest names is of course not going to solve their issues. It's creating a culture that does not de facto exclude spending at high levels, but seeks to direct spending as an investing principal directed to produce a quality, competitive team, all the time....that is what I ask. Analyze, plan, budget, all of that is great, but do not allow externals to define and limit the approach to building a roster, and accept the risk that comes with making judgment calls on future performance of the players. Win some, lose some, but give it a go at least. I think that would give people hope that something is different, and ownership/management is authentically and fully committed to producing quality. If not for the love of the game, which I think Seidler has in spades, at least out of recognition that MLB is not a business like the others in the asset portfolio. I dont begrudge the Pohlad's their desire and need to turn a profit. I also dont think Seidler is just accepting operating losses annually in SD just for shits and giggles either. He still runs a profitable business, without a doubt. I cannot find any quotes where he plays the victim card of his market size, or looks for systematic change in MLB macro economics. He just has a very different conception of how to define and achieve profit. Profit includes a legitimately competitive team, a forward looking organization, and a fan base that can buy into the direction and effort of the franchise. 30 years of futility, a record 0-18 run that should be the shame of all at One Twins Way and call to arms for the whole organization, continued floundering around the margins of respectability....man, if ownership cant see the need for fundamental changes within their models, I cant find any hope in that.
    5 points
  5. Someone inclined toward mathematics might call it a Gio-metric paradox.
    4 points
  6. What if... What happens to Miranda if the trade had never been made and Donaldson had a good year? Another way the twins won today trade...
    4 points
  7. Trade turned out alright. I really like Urshella; a good player, a good guy in the dugout, and he stayed healthy on a team that needed that more than any stat the computer can spit out. I hope they keep him around for a while. Sanchez on the other hand............ Overall, at least for the 1st year in hindsight, an A-.
    4 points
  8. Settling for this type of player is exactly what also-rans do.
    3 points
  9. This trade was a bust. If Donaldson hadn’t worn out his welcome here, he clearly would have easily hit 30 HRs with a .350 OBP. Isaeh would have been a contender for a GG at SS for us. How could you view that as anything but a failure for us?
    3 points
  10. I really appreciate what you are saying here. In my mind, this discussion is what I personally need Twinsdaily to be and I thank you for it. Too many viewpoints on this website are Why aren't the Twins perfect? comments that lack the needed perspective of sensible comparison against their peers or assessment of the context surrounding them. Basically... I appreciate your effort to take another organization and bring them to light to constructively criticize our efforts and that is 1,000 times better than the "Baldelli is an Idiot" comments that echo around these walls. Discussion like this is what I am always hoping for when I check out this website. This is like that occasional 300 yard drive straight down the fairway that I used to pull off every 18 holes that kept me coming back to the golf course despite all the time I spent losing balls in the woods, raking sand traps, chipping over the green and 4 putting my way to a 98. With the compliments out of the way. ? Please allow me to add some wrinkles. 1. This isn't an overnight success story. This story is 10 years in the making. It was 2012 when Seidler and Fowler purchased the Padres. With A.J. Preller as GM, this story is 8 years in the making. During that time the Padres have only had a winning record twice. In 2020 and this year in 2022. 2. One thing that I always say about spending and I will say it again here. The one thing about money is that it gives you the opportunity to pave over your mistakes and the Padres have made quite a few mistakes over these 8 Preller years. Don't get me wrong... all teams make mistakes so I'm not attaching blame for what hasn't worked and perhaps stalled them along the way. I'm just pointing out that a big payroll gives you the chance to try again. The Hosmer signing may have energized the fans but his production was nowhere near the money spent. Hosmer was a mistake that needed to be paved over with more money spent. Myers was signed to big contract, his acquisition cost them Trae Turner and his production was nowhere near the dollars so he was a mistake that needed to be paved over with more money. 3. In the Padres case... mistakes are certainly going to happen when you have perhaps the most aggressive GM is the history of the game. Preller is fearlessly aggressive like we have never seen before. He absolutely doesn't stand still. He was/is full steam ahead aggressive in all phases of acquisition from the International Market to Free Agency to the billions of trades he made that basically replaced everybody on the roster with someone else. I remember back in the early days that I couldn't tell if he was coming or going as he played both sides of the aisle but while he was picking up Kemp and Upton, he was also building the strongest minor league system in baseball, which he has traded off to the bone culminating with the Hader and Soto/Bell deals. 4. The farm is now empty. This puts them at severe risk of a rebuild in the near future. Not saying they will have to rebuild but the odds have certainly increased because they have nothing coming up to fill holes and nothing of value to trade to acquire players to fill those holes, it leaves you one avenue to fill the holes and that is too spend even more money. They are clearly spending now, but will they sail past the luxury tax threshold to avoid the rebuild. I doubt it because I'm not sure the current spending is sustainable but I don't have access to the books so who knows... again I doubt it... but we will see. Regardless... there is always a bill due later. 5. They have traded a lot of talent. It could be argued... I'm not making this argument... but it could be argued that: The Padres may have been in this same playoff position if they hung on to what they traded away. Take a look around the league at the rostered players sent packing by Preller. Trae Turner, Grandal, Fried, Mallex Smith, Jace Peterson, Ty France, Torrens, Brash, Quantrill, Naylor, Hedges, Patino, Mejia, Margot, Lauer, Urias, Renfroe, Xavier Edwards and everything they gave up to the Brewers and Nationals at the recent deadline. I'm sure I am missing a few but there is a pretty good roster of players that Preller sent away. Back to your point. I agree with you. I was at Petco in August for a game against the Giants... That fan base is energized so the investment comparison is apt... but in the end... our front office has reached the playoffs 3 times since 2017 compared to the Padres 2 times since 2014. It just wasn't this year.
    3 points
  11. Ironic if IKF would be non-tendered and the Twins could sign him as a stop-gap. Plus, he could be a decent utility guy for another season or two. Donaldson's salary ws nice to jettison. Urshela was a competent caretaker for third, so much so I would bring him back in 2023 for his decent price and rotate him with Miranda/Arraez between 1B/3B/DH, for now. The trade also ties into the one with the Rangers, as Garver was replaced by Sanchez. Happily Sanchez stayed healthy. I can live with a weak hitting catcher (or a player at one position) as someone has to make the outs. Sanchez would swing and miss waaaay too much. What I dreaded most was him and Sano coming to the plate in the same inning with predictable results. Sano not being around helped. The other pieces in these trades were a bonus to the Twins. Rortvedt never cracked the Yankees roster (although he did get some major league pay for no play). Unless the Yankees are desparate and don't "buy" a catcher, he will continue on at AAA ball and either get designated for assignment or eventually become a minor league free agent. I love Rortvedt, as he has the makings of being a first-rate defender (shades of names like Sal Butera and Phil Roof). With those weight-lifting arms, one would expect power...of course that only happens if the bat meets the ball. I would keep on top of his status for possible catching depth and a gamble to see if he does improve...still. Rnny Henriquez is the bonus in the deal. A very young pitcher who broke onto the Twins roster at season end. He shows he can be a good long man. The question is: do you give him another partial season at AAA as a rotation arm. Spring training will show. But I like his chances of staying as a bullpen option in the Twins pen come 2023.
    3 points
  12. Linus

    Hip, Hip, Jorge!!

    Yea I think Jorge is under appreciated. If you made me choose between him and Arreaz I would take Jorge every time. He’s a really good fielder at second and a pretty complete hitter who is a switch hitter. Chances also are all the prospects everyone loves will never be as good as Jorge
    3 points
  13. My memory might be off but I recall quite a few people who insisted we got worse at 3B and Catcher. I think their hope (the FO) was basically to break even on the short-term production (talent) and get rid of Donaldson's contract. I think Mark G has the grade about right. B+/A- for 2022. However, 2022 is not likely the best part of this trade. They are now in a FAR better position for 23 than they would have been keeping Donaldson. In 2024 the benefit is likely an additional $8M they would have paid to cut him.
    3 points
  14. I can empathize with Allmendinger. I've spent more time watching Japanese beetles on my back deck than I have watching the ALCS. Starting to name the little buggers. Interesting to note several seem more resistant to bug spray than others triggering a fear I may be creating a super race of Japanese beetles. Given they have a genetic ninja ability we could soon be in a world of hurt... almost as painful as watching the Twins tank a division lead. Who's playing by the way?
    3 points
  15. If a stop gap, bring Simmons back, we NEED defense.
    2 points
  16. Two things: he may be cheap, and he can play other positions, thus keeping Nick Gordon out of the infield as a utility guy, although that would totally change the pecking order of the oufield. We don't know about how soon Lewis could hit the majors again. And the status of Martin a short is up-in-the-air. And Brooks Lee may screw ebverything up and push Lewis elsewhere, too. Suddenly we have too many outfielders!?! It would also be ncie to have a veteran presence in the clubhouse, and he would be a decent guy to come off the bench if, and when, other decisions are made. But, best of all, he could fit into the budget. Now, need a catcher!
    2 points
  17. Earlier this offseason I touched on a belief that the Minnesota Twins would open 2023 with Jose Iglesias as their starting shortstop. Even had I not been told from a front office source that “someone like Jose Iglesias” would be their eventual target, the fit just makes too much sense. Carlos Correa signed a $35.1 million deal with the Twins, giving him the largest average annual value for a Major League Baseball infielder. He’s going to get paid a boatload on a long-term deal this winter, and while the Twins should be in the running, their offer almost certainly will not be the largest. If they aren’t going to pay on the devil they know, then paying on the devil they don’t such as Trea Turner or Dansby Swanson makes even less sense. Entering the stopgap category, knowing that Royce Lewis will be back midseason, Austin Martin has shown well in the Arizona Fall League, and Brooks Lee was their first-round pick this past year, the options are whittled down even further. In this vein, the Twins should be expected to connect with a veteran who can do a bit of everything while not commanding a substantial price tag. Again, enter Jose Iglesias. After splitting time with the Los Angeles Angels and Boston Red Sox a season ago, Iglesias signed a one-year, $5 million deal with the Colorado Rockies for 2022. He will be 33 years old in 2023 and has played 1,096 games across his Major League career. Iglesias has familiarity with the AL Central division having spent a career-most five seasons with the Detroit Tigers, and he’s played 28 games at Target Field. Unlike Andrelton Simmons a year ago, Iglesias doesn’t represent a one-sided player for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. Simmons was brought in to shore up the left side of an infield defense that was poor. Iglesias owns a decent .701 career OPS and his .279 batting average reflects an ability to get himself on base. He’s a far cry from the .956 OPS posted during the 2020 season, but there’s offensive ability here where Simmons had none. Iglesias is not an on-base stalwart without generating base hits, however. He owns just a .319 career OBP and his 502/173 K/BB suggests that while he may strike out a bit less, he’s certainly not choosy enough to draw free passes either. If there’s a redeeming quality to his game, it’s in the well-roundedness while also presenting cost certainty. Defensively, FanGraphs defensive runs saved (DRS) don’t view Iglesias particularly well. Last season he posted an abhorrent -22 mark in just shy of 1,000 innings. This season, in equivalent sample size, Iglesias tallied -4 DRS. Maybe Colorado’s shifting and positioning was more beneficial than that of the Angels or Red Sox, but it’s certainly a step forward year-over-year. By Statcast’s outs above average (OAA) metric, Iglesias has never been anything worse than average and his 14 OAA career high came as recently as 2019 with the Cincinnati Reds. Realistically, Iglesias should give Minnesota an opportunity to include a trusted veteran that isn’t a black hole in either facet of the game, while also not blocking Lewis from his eventual return. Iglesias can also play the hot corner and second base down the stretch, and his years of experience could benefit a Twins team looking for a silent leader that routinely does their job. It’d be hard to get excited about Iglesias as the alternative to Correa, but given what the worst-case scenario could be, this is far from it.
    2 points
  18. The deal should look even better next year. Especially if the Falvines dangle a 40-man bubble candidate like Enlow, and have IKF as their stopgap SS in '23. (Legit, if not spectacular, MLB glove and bat, and the ability to play all over including catcher if/when an in-house candidate proves ready to be the regular SS.)
    2 points
  19. I think more accurately, he hasn’t been healthy except for 2021. Polanco had ankle surgery in both 2019 and 2020 IIRC. While he had some nicks in ‘21, he played in 152 games and was the Twins best and most consistent player.
    2 points
  20. I don't trust most defensive metrics, through all the fanangling around our catching depth took a hugh hit. But I say we won the deal mainly because it opened the door for us to get Correa and 2nd Urshella was a dependable piece which we utilized. IKF is a very good SS and a good hitter, the fact that he's not a slugger shouldn't have any bearing on this premium position. The reason NYY moved on from IKF IMO, is that they have 2 SS prospects that they are very high on. IKF was just a safety net they chose not to fully utilize. Rortvedt was hurt so he never really figured in your analysis. But if we don't land Correa this off season, I'd like to get both IKF & Rortvedt back in a trade.
    2 points
  21. When you throw 101 you can afford to lose a little velocity. He'd still be unhittable at 98 MPH. Imagine a world where Johan Santana never left the bullpen. That's the kind of stuff Duran has. It's a shame to only use it 60 innings per season.
    2 points
  22. Brian Allmendinger's Ford Fiesta was parked next to Jim Anchower's Ford Festiva. That was not a cigarette he was smoking out there, to be blunt with you.
    2 points
  23. I had honestly forgotten how consistently good he's been at the plate. My recollection was he's been up and down, but his last mediocre season was when he was 24. Since then his OPS+ has been between 128 and 139 for five years. And decent defense? I like Correa better but if the terms for Bogaerts are better then go get 'um.
    2 points
  24. Duran used to start in the minors and was not the pitcher you see today. Shortening up his innings to let him go max effort really changed what he does. Do not mess with it, just hand him the ball late.
    2 points
  25. I think they could make an ace if they let Duran start
    2 points
  26. You can't look at the SS and say a great SS isn't needed, you have to look at the whole team. Do the Twins have Realmuto, Hoskins, Harper, Schwarber, Nola, Wheeler, Suarez, Alarado, Dominguez, Hand? Do they have Darvixh, Musgrove, Suarez, Garcia, Machado, Kim, Croneworth, Soto? Do they have Judge, Torres, IKF, Rizzo, Stanton, Trevino, Cortes, Colde, Homes, Tailon, King? Do they have Valdez, Verlander, Javier, Stanke, Garcia, Pressly, Montero, Neris, Alvarez, Tucker, Alltuve, Pena, Bregman? And the answer is the Twins have some players like that and need to add more, where is the easiest spot to add those type of players this year? It seems the FA starting pitchers is limited to Rodon (maybe Bassitt) and some others that aren't looking at the twins. The outfield has Judge and ???, 1B, 3B? and Catcher has Contreras. The Twins seemingly have money to spend and not much money tied up in the future, most players that are worth anything have multiple years before hitting free agency. So do the Twins get into a bidding war for the top starting pitcher who may or may not even consider the twins without some concessions on pitching philosophy. (My opinion completely) A game they have never won at, or focus on offensive with a current staff of Gray, Ryan, Mahle and a few guys that could easily start as long type relievers that could go 3-5 innings and get thought the last two spots in the rotation and earn a bigger role. (Ober, Winder, Varland, Maeda (possibly Duran), SWR, Padack (eventually), Henriquez. That could be the staff with Thielbar, Jax, Moran and go out and sign a Diaz? or Hand/Rogers/Fulmer/Robertson? Just my two cents.
    2 points
  27. I appreciate the fact that shortstop is a demanding position, and surely should be the centerpiece of a competitive team. However, I’m looking at box scores and stats of starting shortstops for the remaining 4 teams, and all I see is competent performers, not game-altering talents: Jeremy Peña IKF Bryson Scott Ha-Seong Kim Not exactly Murderer’s Row. I leave it to the good care of you and the other smart folks at Twins Daily to tell me if this year is a major exception, or if we’re all just perhaps overcooking the importance of shortstops.
    2 points
  28. With both League Championship Series underway, local baseball fans can thrill to the unexpected National League matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres. A pleasant reminder that the biggest payrolls or markets don’t always guarantee postseason glory, the first two games have been tense and entertaining. There’s also the ALCS. “Man, I don’t know,” said Brian Allmendinger, 44, a Medina-based systems analyst and lifelong Twins fan, responding to a question about the matchup between the New York Yankees and Houston Astros. “I just…man.” Allmendinger excused himself to smoke a cigarette. Allmendinger’s co-workers are concerned. “When New York eliminated Cleveland, he sighed for 47 seconds,” said Alexis Wolff. “We timed it. I’ll be honest with you, I thought he would pass out.” “His face turned beet red and he just kept shaking his head real slowly,” said Mateo Gutierrez. “I think we were all a little worried about him.” “He doesn’t even smoke,” added Wolff. With Minnesota’s postseason nemesis in the Bronx facing scandal-marred Houston, it’s tough for many Twins partisans to find a rooting interest. “Hate is a strong word,” said Allmendinger. “Needlessly throwing it around devalues the concept and the emotion. It's cruel and ultimately harmful. With that being said, I hate the Yankees and Astros. I don’t want them to lose. I want them to lose and suffer.” Given that one of those teams has to advance, Allmendinger was asked if he had a preference for one or the other to lose. “It’s just that…god,” said Allmendinger, his head in his hands. “I can’t…I don’t. I can’t.” Allmendinger excused himself, saying he left something in this car. He didn’t return to finish the interview, but was observed sitting in his Ford Fiesta, staring straight ahead. The radio wasn’t on. Darkness fell.
    2 points
  29. I'm concerned about the health of the game. And at the professional level that means all the franchises need to be healthy. League wide, winning is necessarily a zero-sum game. But franchise health is not thus constrained; there is no similar logic that forbids all 30 teams from being better embraced by their respective communities in 2023 than in 2022. For a sport to be healthy, it follows that winning can't be the only thing each team sells, even if the pursuit of winning is the point of the competition. The quote from Padres ownership seems to get this. St Louis and Milwaukee are also franchises whose ballpark attendance figures (which along with broadcast fees serve as proxy for overall community engagement) are healthier than our Twins'; similar analysis of how they market themselves should be studied. The Moneyball approach provides short term gains that business people are trained to seek, through roster churn and relentless attention to the bottom line. Fans are invited to play Armchair GM by rooting for profits. Examples of Tampa and Oakland as Moneyball successes happen to coincide with financial floundering. It's well known that the Twins were in the running to be the team that the Moneyball book would focus on, and their financial status seems to be a mixed bag at best. And then to add insult to injury, Dave St Peter recently scolded the fans by implication for the poor financial results and implied payroll cuts are on the horizon; that POV has it just about exactly backwards for branding/marketing purposes. Every team has at least a bit of roster churn over the course of years. But purposely aiming to sell assets when they are at peak value, such as Ryan Pressly and Jose Berrios, and signing 4-inning starters like Archer and Bundy,, has to be done carefully or you lose more than you gain and the team becomes overly hard to market.
    2 points
  30. Very informative article comparing two organizations apples to apples. The article highlights the similarities but also discusses the differences in philosophies. When watching the playoffs this year it is even more evident how far we really are from competing in the playoffs. The Padres drew 2.9 million fans in the 2022 regular season, from a metro population of 1.5 million. The Twins drew 1.8 million fans, from a metro population of 3.7 million IMO the above is the most important difference highlighted in the post. I heard some complaints from management about a dwindling attendance this year for the Twins, but look at SD who put a quality team on the field. Their fans have been noticed and passionate during these playoffs. We do not need to go all-in towards the super high risk model, but definitely need to take a step up. I'd say increasing the payroll to 150-175MM would be a good start.
    2 points
  31. Outstanding post to expose the Pohlad's for how they run this team. "We're getting our money's worth" says it all.
    2 points
  32. I have always believed defensive metrics are highly subjective but not as subjective as pitch framing which is nothing but a crock of s#!+.
    1 point
  33. He'll be fine. He's made only 6 total errors in the last three years. / 0 games 2020-21. Picky picky picky.
    1 point
  34. I just read through this entire thing as a reminder of the system before we roll it out to Brewer Fanatic. This was a really good debate and props to @jharaldsonfor being such a quality opponent.
    1 point
  35. There are a lot of ways to build a lineup. And while it would be great to have an All Star type candidate at every position, it's just about impossible to have that. If Correa is not a re-sign, then a new reality applies to the 2023 Twins; "how best to spend $50M to make this the best team possible, and who plays SS next year?" If the Twins truly believe in Lewis....to a lesser degree probably both Martin and Lee...then a stop-gap of some quality makes sense. And there are a few to choose from, with Iglesias being amongst them. Andrus would also apply as a solid option. The aforementioned IKF would also be a quality candidate, if made available cheaply or simply released. For the short term, the offense would be obviously lacking much punch from the SS position. But the Twins offense would not be decimated in any way with a 100-120 game Buxton and a healthy Miranda, Arraez, Polanco, Larnach, Kepler with a RH OF option, Jeffers and a good partner, Kirilloff, Wallner, etc, etc. Plenty of potential for a non difference making SS in the batter's box for a half year or so with the lineup a healthy clubhouse should provide. Just no butcher with the glove or sub .200 hitter please!
    1 point
  36. I agree it starts with the top, but I don't think it is payroll related. It starts with accountability. 2021 was there year of the injury, at least that was the excuse. Yes coming from 60 games to a full season is a challenge, but one that all teams faced and the twins did poorly. Now let's look at 2022, again injuries are blamed, did they get rid of their trainer, yes, but at the end of the season. The lack of urgency compared to other clubs is staggering (Jay's, Angels, Phillies) are made managerial changes in season, and many more did coaching changes. The twins did not act and only replaced the head trainer, if they deduced he was the issue why was he not replaced earlier. How about Wes leaving, dude was great. seemed everyone was surprised. It doesn't matter how good the LSU opportunity was. At the leadership level, they should be proactive about their employees experience and being surprised shows clear lack of effort. The post season is fun with high quality plays, the twins season even when in first place was not. Baseball is not about optimizing runs, it is an entertainment option that if you put a good team together then you get a extra month of performances. The twins don't get this, neither do a lot of teams but they are least make adjustments and have accountability.
    1 point
  37. FlyingFinn

    Hip, Hip, Jorge!!

    I love how Polanco has played the last few years. He plays even when he is banged up. But we moved him to 2B to save his body. That worked for awhile. Now, he seems to have back issues among other injuries. I think the Twins will keep him this year but if it was me, I would trade him because I think the injuries will only increase. and I think his value is decreasing and we have Arraez and so many good minor league players who can play 2B.
    1 point
  38. Moving the mistake called Donaldson was the plus and the reason the trade works. Signing Correa is a different issue no matter how people want to shuffle the dollars. Kiner Falefa would be the fill in SS this next year until Lewis is ready. Urshela was a definite plus, Sanchez is gone. Their combined salaries subtracted from Donaldson did not leave us a big surplus to sign anyone. Would our winning pct have changed with Donaldson or without Correa?
    1 point
  39. "IF" you are going to hand out long term deals to position players, then I would prefer someone that plays both sides of the ball and is under the age of 30. I would either go all in for Correa or find a placeholder. That said, it this will be the last year in a few when they are so many good SS on the FA market. They better be sure Lewis or Lee can stick there if they don't end up getting someone this offseason. Of course, there are always trades.
    1 point
  40. "Defensive Shortstop" ? Huh? Best 2-way shortstop Twins have had in 25 years!! Doesn't matter if Twins don't get Pitching. Watch the Playoffs. That's Professional Pitching that the Twins just don't have. Maybe 2 -3 Twins Pitchers could be on these staffs in the playoffs. That's the whole story. No Ace. No Playoffs.
    1 point
  41. wsnydes

    Change Starts at the Top

    Yes, the St. Peter quote is beyond tone deaf. Biting the hand that feeds you doesn't help things. Put something together that's worth investing time and money into and I'll do so. Shaming me because I'm not finding the product enjoyable and entertaining just tells me the fan, that he's not getting the hint. Perhaps he's part of the problem too.
    1 point
  42. This can't be real. Arraez and Vlad Jr? What are we doing here baseball world?
    1 point
  43. CRF

    Change Starts at the Top

    In my opinion...and that's all this is, there's a huge philosophical difference between what the Twins are trying to do, and what a lot of other teams are trying to do. The Twins aren't necessarily trying to win a World Series. They're only interested in their profit margin. That's their singular goal. They don't want to do anything to jeopardize that. If they should happen to somehow get to the playoffs, go deep in the playoffs, or win a WS, they'll claim that this was their plan all along and their method(s) worked. Unfortunately, I don't think any of us will see another Twins WS title in our lifetime...I know I won't. No doubt that's depressing, but it won't stop me from being a fan and watching/listening to every game.
    1 point
  44. Not many teams hit on an 18th-round draft pick, but the Twins may have found a sleeper in the 2019 MLB Draft. He was a draft-eligible sophomore because MLB ruled his secondary school year in Canada counted as a college season. During his final amateur season, he posted an .841 OPS with 14 doubles and ten home runs in 65 games. Minnesota took Edouard Julien with the 539th overall pick and went way over slot to sign him for $493,000. Julien's pro debut had to wait until 2021 because of the shutdown, but he quickly made his mark on the Twins system. He split time between Low-A and High-A while hitting .267/.434/.480 (.914) with 28 doubles, 18 home runs, and 34 steals in 112 games. His 110 walks led all of the minor leagues, but he struck out in nearly 30% of his plate appearances. He was roughly the same age as the competition at his level, so there was some concern with his lack of consistent contact and high strikeout totals. Luckily, he remedied some of those issues in 2022. Minnesota sent Julien to Double-A for the entire 2022 season, and he hit .300/.441/.490 (.931) with 19 doubles, three triples, and 17 home runs. His .441 OBP ranked fifth in the minor leagues. He reduced his aggressiveness, allowing him to make more consistent contact. He also struck out in 24.6% of his plate appearances after striking out in 28% of his plate appearances in 2021. He can drive the ball to all fields with plenty of power. Julien was also over a year younger than the average age of the competition Double-A, so he faced older pitchers in 87% of his at-bats. There were positive signs, and Minnesota wanted him to continue to develop in the 2022 AFL. Julien is an on-base machine, and that trend has continued in limited AFL action. He drew ten walks in his first seven games compared to eight strikeouts. Offensively, he has gone 7-for-23 with six runs scored, a double, and a stolen base. All his defensive innings have come at second base in the AFL, and that's another area for him to improve as he gets closer to the big-league level. During his professional career, the Twins have used Julien at multiple defensive positions, including first base, second base, third base, and left field. Over 70% of his defensive innings have come at second base because his arm typically rates below average. He likely won't be an above-average defender at any defensive position, but he can continue to improve at second base. The Twins have developed Julien from a late-round pick into one of the team's top-15 prospects. If he continues on his current path, there is a chance he will make his big-league debut in 2023. He has inserted himself into the team's long-term plans and will be an exciting prospect to watch in the years ahead. How do you view Julien at this point in his professional career? Can he be the Twins' second baseman of the future? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
    1 point
  45. Article over at FanGraphs entitled: Yes, the Playoffs Are Still a Crapshoot Well, unless you're playing the Twins. Welcome to Rodney Dangerville.
    1 point
  46. It’s time to look how today’s players prepare for a season. The Twins have gone all in on conditioning and nutrition. It’s obviously not working! Time to make changes. Hip and wrist injuries with multiple players. 3 position players that came from other teams basically played the whole season and the rest of the players from the Twins organization were injured. This organization looks at trends way too much! Changes need made by the staff we have or we need new leaders.
    1 point
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