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So let me get this straight. We signed a very nice #4 SP with a very nice career despite being shelled a bit in the bandbox that is Yankees stadium. (Better before N.Y. and a surprisingly good 2020). But a pretty damn good SP before that. Then, we took a cheap flier on a #5 option for depth that can be very good when healthy. But we are worried about a talented prospect that a lot of us really like and are excited about who has been good and looks borderline amazing with his new pitch? We all know this works itself out. Happ and Shoemaker look great! One or both get injured. That is where Dobnak, and maybe Thorpe Check in ahead of the prospects on the rise and look like part of the future. The depth is there and enviable. Just doesn't mean Dobber has to be in the rotation from day one.

This makes all the sense in the world for Dobnak. His signing bonus back in 2017 was just $500, and he's still 2 full seasons away from arbitration. The $9.25 mil guaranteed in this deal has an incredible marginal utility for him!

Should give the player quite a Lyft. If Cinderella suddenly turns into a pumpkin, the team is saddled for five years with a payroll-crippling average annual expense of almost two millio-... uh, never mind. Looks like the Twins' analytics team likes him more than the average player rating outfit does, but assuming so, then this does look like a win-win contract. Dobnak's rep no doubt spelled out the scenarios, but even if the player likes to bet on himself, a hard-eyed look at his situation should include the view that if he encounters any bumps on the road he wouldn't get as many chances to redeem himself as a more highly touted player might. He may have settled a little cheaply, but he's locked in a good life outcome, so it makes sense from his side. And the Twins, being the larger partner in this deal, can afford to underwrite the risk, while potentially reaping some financial savings if he turns into a mid-rotation workhorse for several years; he doesn't even have to be a 50-50 shot at achieving this to make it a good bet for the team.

Frankly, because baseball is stupid. In what other major sport do you see teams intentionally holding better players out of games to play inferior players? You see it with the antiquated and awful service time rules. You see situations like this, especially with the Twins, where a veteran earns a spot based on a contract vs. merit. It’s mind boggling sometimes. It’s my favorite sport, I love it, but things like this makes the product worse than it could be. Only a handful of team every year field their best players all year. It’s pretty ridiculous when you take a step back and think about it. Divisions have been won lost by one game. Contending teams like the Twins “punting” early in the year for the sake of service time and sunk costs on veterans drives me nuts. A random game in May means just as much as one in September.

So Detroit has become the Tig-wins ?? Wilson Ramos Niko Goodrum Jonathan Schoop Akil Baddoo Robbie Grossman

Is that more than he made driving Uber? Grab the money Randy!

I think that the Twins needs to take advantage of Dobnak while Donaldson and Simmons are both are healthy. And not wait until both are injured and then throw him in the rotation. Then complain how bad he is when balls go through the INF and he needs to change his game plan. I don't think anyone will hit 180 innings although Berrios should come close. I think Dobnak has just as much ability to reach higher innings as any other starter other than Berrios. Expectations on Shoemaker is that he wouldn't be able to pitch a ton of innings. Put Dobnak in the rotation and force the others to force him out. Competition is the name of the game. Qualifications should be on merit not politics. If there is a starting clause in both contracts, I guess that would make bad contracts even worse.

I'd like to harness Dobnak's magic right out of the gate, but understand that assurances may have been made to others. Is any thought being given to a 6-man rotation to start the season? Would there be any resistance from Maeda and Berrios? My understanding of Maeda's contract is that it's incentive-heavy, tied to innings, so that could be a consideration. Otherwise I think a 6-man rotation is a good way to ease us into a season that promises to be almost three times as long as last year. Injuries or poor play will inevitably get us back to five starters soon enough.

I think the issue is the FO said they wanted to take best players north to start the season and it was one of the reasons they didn't take Kirilloff with them. Whether you like it or not competition means something even in spring where stats mean less than normal. The other thing is as fans, and hopefully the FO, you want your best 5 pitchers pitching to start the season. While it is just spring and stats don't matter Randy has been so dominant that right now it appears that isn't the case. I know there is only so much competition you can have against veteran pitchers. With Happs late start and Shoemaker blowing up one game and not having a great K\9 this spring it creates the feeling that they are not as ready as Randy to start the season. While i get that Randy can piggy back off of Happ or Shoemaker it seems like a waste if one of those guys gives up five runs and then Randy pitches well the rest of the way and we lose by one run or something. That isn't going to sit well at all. Don't get me wrong I like the depth and I begged the FO for veteran depth but that was before Randy K\9 Dobnak showed up this spring. I get that you can't count vets out in Spring Training and they may very well end up starting the season well but I also get why people are questioning it too. Randy has looked like a front line starter the other two have not.

Here we are once again at the Clearance Table of the Bargain Basement of Major League Baseball. Over there is a box of miscellaneous electrical fixtures, a pile of dangerous extension cords, some lamps, a collection of brooms, and a baby crib full of league veterans. Now and then a savvy shopper will emerge from this place with a Nelson Cruz or even an Ichiro Suzuki with a couple good years left in him. Usually they wish they'd just grabbed some of those cheap extension cords. The Minnesota Twins are famous for trying and failing to get great deals here. Truth is, all the teams shop here, and usually fail. Age and injuries wear down even the best players. Here we are again, spinning that big wheel on Happ and Shoemaker. Yep, the probability is low that either one of them will shine as bright as in their late 20's, but each guy was a star for a while, so maybe... Come to think of it, we don't just do this for them. Whom amongst us did not smile when old Bartolo Colon fooled a few more hitters, then did his behind-the-back flip to first, then hit an improbable home run? The story of the Savvy Veteran is as old as the game itself. Some of us dream that a little of that old glory rubs off on our crusty selves, don't we? Good luck to Happ and Shoe. We got plenty of backup, if they fail.

This is great for Randy but I also don't see how the Twins could possibly lose with this contract. $9.25 million for five years, that's not even $2 million per year. Even if he gets hurt and never pitches an inning again, that's hardly crippling the Twins. That kind of money is what a somewhat decent reliever makes on the open market and I think "somewhat decent reliever" is Randy's absolute floor. If he manages to stick as a starter, this contract could turn into an absolute steal. Shrewd move.

I would rather see them stack starters because a 6 man rotation likely puts more strain on the BP. You have one less BP arm unless you elect to reduce the bench in favor of the 6th starter. You also probably loose your best long reliever. Does an extra day rest provide benefits that outweigh these things? I don't think so but it's worthy of discussion.

Akil Baddoo makes the cut in Detroit! Ghaaa, it's happening! They just got Puckett 2.0! Next they'll get Nick Gordon, who will pump up to 180 pounds and become a power-hitting SS for ten years! Ghaaaaaa!

Here's another potential scenario that works in the team's favor. Let's be optimistic and say that our prospects pan out and we have 7 or so good starters in 3 years. This contract makes Dobnak very tradeable, and for a good return.

Wow. Good for Dobnak.

Seems like a no-brainer from the Twins perspective. A win for Randy too grabbing the guaranteed money after everything he has overcome

Once I got past my initial shock, this seems to be a rather shrewd move. This front office doesn't take any of its players for granted - when they see a contributor who can be extended, they take the opportunity. Cool. Looking forward to seeing how Randy responds this season!

If there are 3 guys on the twins that will crew up 180+ innings, it's Maeda, Berries, Dobnak. It's more important to finish a game strong than anything else so let Dobber tag team Happ or Shoe. By June, someone will miss a start and Dobnak will step in just fine. I predict both Dobber and Thorpe will be on the playoff roster!

Basing initial assignments on spring training would not be more effective than the current system of relying on a player's overall career. That's a pretty basic fact that has been demonstrated countless times.

Hawk Harrelson says "hi."

I didn't realize they had formally announced the starting rotation and a Google search did not produce an announcement. Is their a link to this announcement or was it mentioned on a broadcast? edit: Never mid I found an article on MLB.com. I would prefer Dobnak but the use of pitchers is going to be unconventional this year given their limited innings last year. He will be in the rotation soon enough if he pitches anything like he did in ST unless all five starters are great and I would be just fine with that scenario. We also don't know what assurances were made to Happ and Shoemaker. Recruiting requires promising things so there is a good chance promises were made we don't know about. There are 30 people in the world that hold the top spots in front offices. That type of job is never held by stupid people despite the consistent insistence of some sports fans.

St. Paul should have a heck of a pitching staff.

To add more calming words, Dobnak probably isn't ready to throw 180 innings anyway, so consider the time waiting in the wings as preemptive rest? It appears that Dobnak will make the roster, and that he will pitch substantial innings early. So, the odds that he gains a layer of rust while waiting are low. As for Darius' question, every professional sport has teams that allocate playing time according to contract size. That said, it isn't a good idea, which you can see by looking no further than our local NBA "team."

I could see the Twins putting Happ on the 10 day DL due to need to ramp up from COVID, that would let Dobnak start a couple of times before Happ is ready, otherwise Dobnak will probably be mopping up the bad Happ starts.

Yikes, you bet $20 bucks on a 38 year old pitcher? Another twenty reasons not to bet on sports... Okay, where are those little emoticons... <--- there's where you put that money!

Good for Dobnak, locking up some guaranteed life-changing money.

It's 5 years, $8.25 million, with three option years, and a buyout of $1million after the 2025 season. So AAV of 1.65 million. He would have gotten about 1.25 over then next two years total, so 3 yrs, 7 mil added to that is fair both ways for his player type. I think the Twins realize his new pitch puts him in a new category. He had everything already except an out pitch.

Congratulations!

Absolutely love this deal for both sides. Congrats to The Dobnak, The Twins FO, and most importantly US FANS

It can end up being an eight year deal. Dobnak can very well end up being the next Radke for the Twins

THEY JUST SIGNED HIM TO A FIVE-YEAR CONTRACT! Here's hoping he's not another Joe Mays! Or Nick Blackburn!

Thielbar has an option year remaining too, so he wouldn't have be waived (unless they needed the 40-man spot).

You can't option injured players, so it's just a question of whether Colina is healthy enough to option (unlikely at this point) or he goes on the MLB 10-day or 60-day IL. I expect Colina will go to the MLB 60-day IL to open a 40-man spot for Law. Then if Colina is ready to pitch before the 60th day of the MLB season (but after the minor league season starts in early May), he can simply be sent to AAA on a rehab assignment until he is healthy enough to option.

Dobnak is legit and in a groove. Every game counts the same in the standings. He has been pitching better than Pineda as well. If the goal is to win the most games, it is egregious for Dobnak not go go north as a starter. Life is a competition. The goal is to win games not sooth the egos of old and broken free agent pitchers.

The biggest concern will be how long it will take him to ramp up to being a starter? If he is stuck in the bullpen for the first 5 weeks just throwing an inning or 2 how long will it take him to be ready to go 6-7 innings?

He's going to get plenty of starts this year - sadly there is no way our current starting 5 will all last all year long without missing any starts. That is why we need a strong #6 - and he's looking very much like the guy for that role. Great position to be in that has no pressure to start off the year, but when called upon can take that role and never let go if we performs well.

Either the announcer was being nice, or else the guy in the control booth was in his ear telling him dead air was unacceptable so just say something.

I think Waddell is a little bit better than Law but if there will be any one it'll be Law because he's out of options. I think this ST has shown us that Broxton isn't a PH candidate.

in a spring training game???

Yup, the Twins are now the developmental team for the Tigers.

You are correct that they could have kept Rosario if they wanted to, but they didn't want to. I believe the FO tried to trade him but had no takers. He passed through Waivers unclaimed so pretty much the whole league agreed with the Twins that his price per production wasn't worth it. That is just the reality of how all FO's see Rosario. Does that mean he is a bad player or won't have a good year or years, no, but it is hard to fault our FO when the rest of league let him pass by. Yeah eventually the Indians signed him but I am not aware of anyone reporting lot's of teams had interest. If he were this great player shouldn't someone have claimed him or more teams try and sign him? If you could hand out an award for passion, fire and not being afraid of big moments Rosario would win hands down. He is a good left fielder but not a top 10 left fielder. Given what we know and how other teams responded it is hard to fault the FO for letting him go.

I really think Broxton should make the team. They need a legit backup CF Celestino needs to play everyday at AA. With the amount Rocco likes to rest guys a backup would play quite a bit.

RIP Mike Bell. Prayers for hius family and friends.

Very good article Matt, I enjoyed it. Because SS and CF is so crucial and demanding we need an excellent supply of players in the wings ready to be called to duty. But I'd wouldn't coin them as redundant because to me redundance is impractical, being deep in SS and CF is very intelligent. All elite teams are, always substituting starters with 1st class replacements, short or long term.

what a shame about Mike Bell. That's just horrible and tragic. Seems appropriate that they played the game, though, considering what a baseball family he was part of and the baseball lifer he was. Gotta say, that news makes it a little harder to give a crap whether JA Happ is ready/not ready, washed up/doing veteran pitching things, or any of it. RIP, Mike Bell.

Upon second reading, I guess I want to complete my thought by saying that this reductio ad absurdum leads me to think that Happ was actually doing more than just "hitting spots" that the other team's announcer was saying. I would hope.

I think we'd all prefer to see him sharpening pitches that are less hittable.

I hate it too but..... https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/irregardless

I'll admit there were times in 2019 (only fifty years ago, sigh) when I thought it would be nice if Randy Dobnak added just one more squirrelly pitch to befuddle hitters. Now he has added that pitch, and his ERA is sub-1. What else need this man do? Do they want an upper 90's fastball? Ain't gonna happen. Like Maeda, Dobs exists with cleverness and guile, not pure power. Like Maeda, Dobs has found a formula to get guys out. Will it last? Insufficient data. However, physically he looks like a big, human diesel engine that will chug along for years with little more than a new pair of shoes now and then. After a slight delay, I think Dobnak will be a starting pitcher for the Twins for a long, long time.

Dobnak has to be winning everyone over. He just takes the ball and does what he needs to. It's just a wonderful story and excellent talent. I really want him in the starting rotation.