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Ah, there it is. The annual ‘this will be the year Kepler’s BABIP normalizes’ article. To be fair, this is the first in this early spring tradition that does more than hint that the issue is not really bad luck and shifts, but instead, Kepler’s approach and swing. Which it 100% is. His offensive value has been anchored to how often the fly balls to right field leave the park. Period. And if the 2021 ball is as ‘different’ from the 2019 ball as feared (by batters)...I’m not holding my breath on a great year from Kepler. Can he change his approach at age 28? Maybe. He may need to.

Thanks Tom, nice job as always. Thorpe looking very determined. Canterino looking nasty. Broxton making a statement.

Love to see Canterino showing what he's got. Looking like he could be a real nice rotation piece.

Many moons ago I had a brief career as an insurance salesman. The legal eagles briefed me on how many lies I could tell potential customers without going to jail, my boss briefed me continuously on how many sales I wasn't making and my first marriage turned out to be a brief affair. I guess you could say I was a brief case.

The players with the best underlying indicators tend to produce the most runs. So... yes?

Was wondering why Thorpe went only one inning, thanks for clearing that up. Speaking of Thorpe and the fourth option, today's STrib said that it is still pending an arbitrator's decision and isn't definite. Great seeing Canterino pitching like he can. Have my fingers crossed that he is the young star to be that Cleveland type callup during the season who steps in and dominates from day 1! If Broxton keeps playing like he is, does he replace Cave on the roster? Would certainly be an upgrade defensively and speed on the bases. Gotta believe they could get some type of return for Cave to a team needing help in the outfield.

Wait until Royce is in a batting cage in September and crushing the ball next march. Simmons would be a great plan B for 2022.

I'd be fine with a Simmons extension

I know everyone said Canterino has a quirky delivery but seeing it makes you better understand why people were wondering about him starting. Still his inning was pretty dominating 10 pitches 8 for strikes. He paces around the mound like a caged lion and is ready to throw right away. Very interesting mannerisms for a pitcher but I have to say I came away impressed watching him on MLBtv. He appeared to have very good control of the strike zone and I think his motion messed with hitters timing. There isn't a ton of room on the 40 man but the way he is pitching someone could get bumped later on this season if he keeps pitching like that. Thorpe pitched well again striking out the side. He had some battles getting to full counts but he won them all today. Really nice to see and I hope he can keep it up. Garlick continues to roll with a 2 for 2 day but how about Broxton? He is off to a hot, hot, hot start this spring. He had a mammoth HR today showing off his power. He has kept the K's down and made contact so far. They need to put him in the starting lineup here shortly to see how he does against better pitching but he has been very impressive so far. I can see why the Twins like Winder as no one made contact against him but his control was off today and he didn't aggressive enough in the zone as he gave up two walks. He also K'd one batter and gave up no hits and no runs so pretty hard to complain when the only complaint is he threw too many pitches. He has things to work on but the stuff looks like it is there. Colome came out and pitched better today but I can see why the White Sox didn't trust the numbers. It took 24 pitches to get through the inning but he did K two guys so he did his job. Still early in he spring and the old vets don't seem to worry about much more than getting there work in so probably no big deal It was nice to see a little more offense out there and fun to see some good pitching performances as well. getting excited for the season to start.

I am REALLY pulling for Nick Gordon to stay healthy and show that he can be a contributor at the MLB level, be it with the Twins or someone else. Seems he has been plagued by horrible luck and timing for the last few years - just hoping he can finally show what he can do and get an opportunity

How about a five man rotation with an alternating Happ and Dobnak for the first two rounds. Then we can settle in to whatever the team decides. In fact if the articles in TD are accurate it might be Thorpe and Happ.

No chance the Twins will be willing to pony up what it would take for any of these guys. If Baez struggles at the plate he might be discounted a little. If the Twins were ever to break the bank, Story would the player to pay. Planning on getting anything close to this list from Royce Lewis anytime soon (or ever) would be a huge mistake. He’s sporting a career OPS in the minor leagues under .750 and isn’t anywhere near defensively what some of these guys are. Even if he didn’t blow out his knee, if you have a chance to get one of these guys, you find another position for Lewis. He’s earned nothing.

Insurance, in general, is "privatized socialism." (A term that I have unofficially coined), in that we all protected from catastrophic loss, while built-in profits go to the insurance companies. A strange arrangement, to say the least.

I'm liking the decision to give Thorpe just the one inning, at this point in the Spring. Let him bask in the glow of that inning for the next few days.

Curious as to why you didn't include Simmons with the above? Assuming he hits about what he has the last several years, I see the Twins signing him to a two year extension before this year is over. Fantastic defense along with a solid bat for a reasonable cost may be the best choice for the local 9. That also gives Lewis time to heal and get back into the game before pushing for his position on the team.

This is a good day to give Kepler a little extra attention - today was the discovery of the third law of Planetary Motion by Johannes Kepler. Maybe they are related and Max will discover the third strike of batting success.

I personally think anyone of them would be a "fit" from a performance and teammate perspective. However, I think they are all going to be asking for longer term deals than the Twins would want to offer them. That being said, if the conditions were right we may see Simmons signed for another one year deal.

How does the pending owners' lock-out affect the signing of free agents?

I just don't see how it changes unless he begins to spray the ball to all fields a little more. He's a good, solid player. Not a great one. A terrific defensive RF.

Here are some additional highlights from this afternoon's game, which includes video of Thorpe, Canterino and Winder.

The "always injured" Mauer after his rookie season averaged playing over 110 games a season at catcher while DH about 20 times a year. That is far different than Buxton. There is no comparison to what Mauer produced at his position compared to Buxton.

The Minnesota Twins have played more than a handful of Spring Training games and Opening Day is less than a month away. Who will make up the 26-man roster in Milwaukee on April 1? There’s been a couple of additions since roster projection 1.0 exactly one month ago, and spring performances may wind up influencing some of the roster decisions as well. It appears there will be fans in the stands no matter where you turn on Opening Day, so who will fans of the reigning AL Central division champions be seeing? Here’s the first revision: Starting Pitchers (5): Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda, J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker Randy Dobnak gets bumped from the group as the addition of Shoemaker on a one-year deal worth $2 million all but cements his place as the final starter. The former Angels pitcher has been good when healthy, he’s just rarely remained that for significant stretches of time. Minnesota has solid starting depth, even if the ceiling is lowered behind Pineda. This should be a solid group. Relief Pitchers (8): Taylor Rogers, Alex Colome, Tyler Duffey, Hansel Robles, Jorge Alcala, Cody Stashak, Randy Dobnak, Lewis Thorpe I’m really uncertain what to do with this group. Only six spots seem like certainties, and despite Caleb Thielbar needing to be a seventh, he may miss the start of the season with an injury. Minnesota also seems likely to carry 14 pitchers given the workload differential in adding 102 games this season. That said, I have no idea how they get there. Shaun Anderson is on the 40-man roster already. Thorpe and Dobnak have looked good this spring, but both should remain stretched out to start. Ian Hamilton, Ian Gibault, and Brandon Waddell would all need a spot on the 40-man roster if they were to be included. Catchers (2): Mitch Garver, Ryan Jeffers Removing Willians Astudillo here solely from the idea that the options elsewhere seem better suited for the roster. He’s not a true catcher and the top two should be able to split duties evenly. Infielders (5): Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, Andrelton Simmons, Josh Donaldson, Luis Arraez No changes here and the only thing that could make some sense would be a true shortstop to spell Andrelton Simmons. Jorge Polanco will likely be asked to play that role at times rather than including someone like J.T. Riddle, who would need a 40-man spot should he make the club. Outfielders (5): Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Jake Cave, Brent Rooker Talk about a group brimming with options. Kirilloff should be the Opening Day left fielder. The team has suggested Arraez isn’t being groomed to play the outfield, and there’s no Triple-A action for a month. Jake Cave is the holdover fourth outfielder, but he’s a bit redundant as another left-handed bat. Keon Broxton is a non-roster guy that can truly play centerfield and he’s looked very good in the early going. Kyle Garlick is a right-handed hitter with a 40-man spot who’s also looked good, but he’s probably destined more for the corners. If you’re adding another bat, it probably needs to be Brent Rooker. He’s not a centerfielder, but he too is right-handed and looked the part before his injury in 2020. Designated Hitter (1): Nelson Cruz No change here For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Minnesota signed Andrelton Simmons to be a bridge to Royce Lewis, but his injury changes the plan. Now, the Twins will have the opportunity to be players in next winter’s historically great free agent shortstop class.Injuries to top prospects can be frustrating to a fan base, especially for a player as highly touted as Royce Lewis. He was supposed to be the team’s shortstop of the future with the chance to take over that role at some point in 2022. His injury might end up being a blessing in disguise, because the Twins can take advantage of a rare plethora of free agent shortstops. In some offseasons the free agent shortstop class can be almost non-existent. This past winter saw multiple above average shortstops hit the market including Marcus Siemen, Didi Gregorius, and Simmons. Only Gregorius signed a multi-year deal, so Siemen and Simmons will have to compete with other star players for free agent deals (Age for 2022 season in parentheses). Francisco Lindor (28): Lindor was dealt out of the AL Central this winter and will spend the 2021 campaign with the Mets. It seems most likely for the Mets and their new ownership to work out a contract extension to lock-up Lindor. He’s one of baseball’s most marketable superstars and he already seems like a natural fit in the Big Apple. It’s going to cost north of $300 million to sign him and that is more money than the Twins are going to be willing to spend. Javier Baez (29): Last season, Baez struggled to the tune of a .598 OPS in over 235 plate appearances. However, in the previous four seasons he averaged 25 home runs and 30 doubles per year with a .822 OPS. On top of that, he’s one of baseball’s best defensive shortstops. There’s also a connection between Jose Berrios and Baez as they are brother in-laws and both hale from Puerto Rico. Maybe bringing Baez into the fold will encourage Berrios to sign an extension with Minnesota. Carlos Correa (27): Correa is the youngest player on this list, but he’s also missed time throughout his big-league career. In fact, the 2016 campaign was his lone season with more than 110 games played. There’s no denying his on-field production when he is on the field. He’s averaged a 5.2 WAR in every season where he has played 99 games or more. Also, he’s a well-rounded infielder as he finished second in SABR’s SDI among AL shortstops last season. The injury history might scare some teams away, but it can also bring down his free agent price. Trevor Story (29): Story debuted in 2016 and he’s done nothing but mash since that point. Among shortstops, he has the most home runs during that time-period even though he has fewer at-bats than the next three players behind him in the standings. Story isn’t as strong defensively as some of the others on this list, but he can more than hold his own. He ranks as the seventh best shortstop according to Defensive Runs Above Average since making his debut. Story might be a sneaky good player for the Twins to target next winter. Corey Seager (28): Seager’s star power has dwindled during his time in LA, especially with MVP winners Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger anchoring the line-up. Unfortunately, he missed nearly all the 2018 season due to Tommy John surgery, but he came back strongly and led the NL in doubles the next season. Last year, he posted career highs in batting average and slugging percentage as the Dodgers claimed the World Series title. Will LA be willing to let one of their best players leave in free agency because of the team’s other stars? Which player do you think would be the best fit in Minnesota? Will the team spend big on a shortstop even with Lewis returning from injury? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

FORT MYERS - It was a picture perfect day at Hammond Stadium today. The weather was pretty good, too.Rain (Man), Then Thunder Josh Donaldson made his spring debut today and turned an 89 mph fastball into a 110 mph home run. The 3-run blast not only cleared the center field wall, it did so against the wind. “He's doing really well,” commented Twins manager Rocco Baldelli after the game. “He's in a good spot physically and he's got his plan put together and he's out there executing it every day.” Baldelli also said that Donaldson will be back in the lineup soon, probably right after the Twins off-day tomorrow. Thorpe Continues to Impress Lewis Thorpe continued to impress this spring. Starting the game, he struck out all three batters he faced on a total of 13 pitches. “His fastball life was exceptional,” said Baldelli. “Commanded the ball well throughout the inning. I mean, that’s just a really nice day of work. He should feel really good about himself.” In sort of an odd development, after that one inning, he went to the bullpen to get more work in and get his pitch count up. There was a good reason: Thorpe was granted an additional option this offseason, and there are five veterans in front of him for the starting rotation, so he’s on the outside looking in for the 26-man roster. But he’s certainly positioning himself to be near the front of the line if an opportunity arises. The Twins seem to view his future is that of a starting pitcher, more than an occasional bullpen swingman. Lineup Obsessing The Twins have played 8 games this spring and Max Kepler has hit leadoff for four of them and Luis Arraez for the other four. So that question has certainly not been settled. Yesterday it was Arraez’s turn, and he got on base in two of his three at-bats, with a diamond-cutter single and a walk. There was one mild surprise at the top of the order. This is the first game that Donaldson and Nelson Cruz have shared a lineup card, and Donaldson batted second (which is not unusual), but Cruz batted cleanup. You’ll recall that Cruz has mostly batted third with the Twins, but last Cruz batted cleanup in six of the first seven games, before going back to third in the lineup again. Batting between the two big right-handed bats was Jorge Polanco, who could be poised to have a big year, especially hitting left-handed. That’s something to keep an eye on for the rest of camp. Quick Hits Shortstop Andrelton Simmons had his first day in Twins camp today after getting past his visa challenges in Curacao. He got in some work, but also got to tour the complex and get to know his new teammates. Baldelli plans to get him into his first spring training game sooner rather than later. Outfielder Keon Broxton also had a 110-mph home run today. He’s also had a good camp, and provides and interesting option as a bench player. He brings a right-handed bat and can play center field too. But the 30-year-old isn’t on the 40-man roster, so he’s got an uphill climb compared to Jake Cave, Brent Rooker and even Kyle Garlick. The Twins 8-4 win was closed out by fireball prospects Matt Canterino (Twins Daily’s #9 prospect) and Josh Winder (an Honorable Mention candidate). Both had a chance to show off their 97 mph fastball. Former first round pick and shortstop prospect Nick Gordon talked to the media today. After missing last year battling Covid and having limited playing time in 2019 battling gastrointestinal problems, his main goal this year is to stay healthy. “I feel like this year is special for me in the sense of just being back on the field,” he admitted, “and I'll take that with open arms.” MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Yes, I know about $/WAR estimates. That's not quite was I was asking, although it's a decent rule of thumb for estimating long-term FA contracts. I specifically asked about the minimum Buxton could get for his age-29 season. Matt Harvey didn't get $11 mil in 2019 because the Angels though he'd produce 1.4 WAR in his age-30 season. Josh Donaldson didn't get $23 mil from the Braves in 2019 because they thought he'd produce 2.9 WAR. Short-term contracts can be as much about betting on upside potential as anything else. Teams want to *beat* $8 mil per WAR whenever possible, and there's no better way to do that on the FA market than short-term deals for big talents with a few question marks. And Buxton, with his skills and what he's shown through age 26, has a very good chance to be an attractive target for those upside bets entering his age-29 season, even if scuffles through the next two years. It's not hard to imagine that in such a scenario, Buxton could still find a taker for age 29-30 at Bradley Jr prices (2/24). And of course, with plenty of upside to earn a lot more -- both at age 29-30 and guarantees for age 31+ -- if he puts it together for a season before then, rather than just scuffling. Which suggests he's probably not too eager to sell those two seasons, and those two seasons alone, for $30 mil right now.

if you want a triple header week, the weeks of May 25 and July 6 can get the Saints at Iowa and Cedar Rapids and Wichita at home.

I agree, I don’t think the Twins should give him the full 4/59 value—injury discounts would need to be factored in. Spycake just noted that ZIPs peg him at 2.7WAR over 397 ABs. I think that 397ABs is in part reflecting the risk he won’t be in the field 100% due to injuries. Steamer has him at 3WAR (but 530 ABs). So maybe my estimate of 3.5WAR for his 27/28 year season is a bit high. If he is at 3WAR for 27/28, and 2.5 WAR at 29 and 2 WAR at 30, those last two seasons are worth $36mm, making the extension 5/9/20/16=4/50. Anyway, four years, somewhere between 50 and 55mm seems like a good guess.

Tom Tango had an open source thread for years (before getting hired by an MLB team) spelling out in pretty clear terms how free agent contracts are derived. It starts by figuring out what the baseline WAR a player produces per year at their maximum, prime year production (27-28 years old, mostly). For most free agents, they are starting decline phase, and so you need to discount that max value by 0.5 WAR per year. Then you figure out the going rate in free agency per WAR, and you can figure out how much a player contract might be. The real key is figuring out the baseline WAR. Buxton maxed out at 3.6 WAR on Fangraphs at age 23, and was listed at 5.0 WAR on BBref for the same year. But he’s totaled between 8-10 WAR over the past 4 years on those sites (granted last year was a short year); 2-2.5 WAR per year. I think the most you could reasonably peg him at is 3.5 WAR for his age 27 and 28 seasons. That would drop to 3 WAR for his age 29 season. So to answer your precise question, at $8mm/WAR, he could expect a $24mm salary for his age 29 season when he hits free agency. Of course, his age 30 season would be less; discount to 2.5WAR, or 8x2.5=$20mm. 31 would be 2WAR/16, and age 32 would be 1.5WAR/12. So a four year free agent contract for Buck (for his age 29-32 seasons) would be 4/72, or $18 per year. Full value for Buck, using these calculations, including his last two arb years and two years of free agency, would be 5/10/24/20=59.

Zero chance of Lindor or Seager, but the other three . . . are a little bit above zero, but not a lot.

But it works. Also, nobody is forced to buy it, except for health insurance in the US... and Worker's compensation insurance by employers, and liability insurance in North Carolina for our vehicles...and injury insurance for my child to play sports...and fire insurance for my mortgage lender...oh never mind.

You're surely on the right track there, but the terminology might be tangled. Insurers LOVE highly predictable outcomes - as you go on to point out. If it's predictable, then they'll offer insurance on just about anything, allowing you to smooth out your own risk because you're just one individual, while they let the law of large numbers work to their favor to provide steady profits. It's not the predictability, it's the frequency. In the case of term life insurance, young people die infrequently, and even when you're getting on in years the majority in your age cohort live to see another January. That makes it possible to offer affordable rates, that increase only gradually until you hit your 60s or so. The Twins could ask to smooth out their risk on Donaldson, but Lloyds of London (or whoever offers that kind of policy anymore) would charge so much to reflect the 50% probability of a claim, to just pull a number out of the air, that the policy itself would be a huge burden. Lloyds would charge 50% of Donaldson's $21.7M salary, plus a markup for profit. Paying say $13M for a policy that pays out $21.7M if the injury hits is like betting on Red at the roulette table except with worse odds. Actually the policy would be pro-rated as the season goes along, so the policy premium would likely be smaller than I said, as it might pay a smaller fraction of the salary if the injury hits in August than in April, but I don't want to get further lost in the weeds than I already probably am.

I think they do it if they can. Like others, I'll be a bit surprised, but given the nature of contracts it's quite possible his agent is telling him to be smart here given how much he's been hurt. I think you can safely say that a Buxton contract won't hamstring the team quite like Mauer did or like Donaldson could be... so yeah, do it.

Insurance for highly predictable outcomes tends to be either very expensive or impossible to purchase. Highly predictable outcomes are a hard way for insurers to make money otherwise. Yes, I recognize that "death" is highly predictable and lots of insurers make lots of money with life insurance. However, "date of death" is not highly predictable, except as an average for large groups of people.

I've liked what I've seen from both Garlick and Broxton (who doesn't?), but I don't think either will impact on whether Cave makes the squad out of spring training. The "victims" if either of those guys comes north would be Kirilloff and Rooker. There is a vacancy in left field and it seems that sometime this year it will be claimed by Kirilloff, but that might not be right away and so far he's only 2-13 with four Ks. Rooker has been fine in limited work, but both Garlick and Broxton have been much better. While Broxton isn't on the 40-man roster, he has defensive ability (including being a legit center fielder) and speed that the other candidates don't have. Besides that, as I understand it, Keon has an opt-out so if the Twins would not add him to the roster, he would essentially be a free agent.

Thorpe is gaining my respect, for sure. It could have been just as easy to give up knowing the odds were against him to be a regular MLB contributor here. He showed up this year ready to prove people wrong. Good for him!

I doubt their plans to have Lewis take over are changed. They are more likely delayed and they are not going to delay that plan for several years. So, I doubt they pursue these FAs especially if they hope to extend both Buxton and Berrios.

If Kepler were as good as those other players, I imagine you would worry about him too.

Kepler is the least of my worries. We've got the Strikeout King on 1st, the Calf Man on 3rd, Bad Wheel Polanco at 2nd and Garver The Enigmatic behind the plate. A healthy, consistent, above average fielder in right, who can also fill in at center for the injury prone What-Can-I-Break-Next Buxton helps me sleep at night. That and a shot of Jameson.

This seemed like an odd landing spot for Broxton, there are other teams with more OF need that should have been interested in him. It's going to be tough (but not impossible) for him to play his way onto the roster. Maybe this will be a great opportunity to showcase himself to other teams. Either way, it's really nice to have him around, and he appears to be enjoying himself.

Donaldson's offensive prowess is the focus, but he is also a very good defensive third basemen. In he and Simmons, the Twins probably have the best defensive left side of the infield in baseball.

As ugly as his .222 BA looked last year, one must learn that Batting Average is a highly inaccurate way of rating a hitter. He had a .362 wOBA and a 129 wRC+ (above average).

Jordy Mercer, come on down!

Has underlying indicators ever scored any runs?

I have been disappointed by Max for a couple years. I had hoped he would move up and make that transition to a star player, now I want him to be a good player. With the rookies rising something needs to happen this year.

I am afraid injury prone is not affixed - it is earned and it is unfortunate. A lot of players have had careers fall short because their bodies did not hold up. It is not a put down, but the team does need to think about how to protect its investment. I loved Arraez at second - not so much at third. But we have a weak back up to this position at all levels.

Let’s all hope you are right. The question is if Garver is fully recovered from said Intercostal Strain.