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Apologize for probably repeating some things already stated in the post podcast OP. I do think the FO and staff do a great job of identifying bullpen pieces. Internally, I think Alcala has a high ceiling and is already penciled in for 2021. Now, does he morph quickly in to a back end piece, or does he settle in to mid relief for the time being? Depends not only on him, but also any potential additions. I also believe Rogers is back for around $6+M. There is WAY too much arm talent and past production at his age to believe he is cooked after a mediocre 2020. Duffey is set. I believe Stashak and Wisler are near locks. Wisler less so, and he will regress somewhat. He pretty much has to! That's 5 of 8 spots virtually set. No matter how payroll gets set, there is need and room and at least SOME payroll to work with. Thielbar has a real shot, IMO, but doesn't have enough OOMF in his arm for me to just slot him in despite how well he performed last year. The Twins MIGHT slot Colina back in the rotation at some point, but IMO, they have decided his future is in the pen, at least for now. His one appearance late in the year is indicative of the Twins liking him, but no indication he is or is not ready yet. And, of course, there is ABSOLUTELY the possibility one of the 2 recent additions, or a flier yet to come, could surprise. But those ARE fliers and depth at this point. Also possible the Twins slide Thorpe in to the pen NOW, but I'm guessing he remains in the rotation for NOW. Can't ignore Smeltzer for some sort of role. Not even going to touch the Romero possibility at this point. But ALL of this is more about depth at this point. Clippard has been living on 1yr deals for about the same money for some time now while producing. He was excellent in 2020 at $2.7M I believe. His re-signing for somewhere between $2.5-3M makes so much sense for both sides. And I see no reason that kind of contract can't be fit in rather easily. Where it gets difficult is a NEED for ONE MORE quality arm to keep the pen strong for a championship caliber team. STILL have to make the crucial Cruz decision, bring in a #3/4 SP and at least consider a 10th man utility player. (IMO, Adrianza is a given at around $1M). There is going to be a financial crunch at some point. But a quality bullpen is too important to be ignored. Unless Cruz is gone, or Rogers is gone, (maybe and I doubt it), there just isn't room for a Hendricks or Hand signing unless payroll stays the same for 2021. THEN, there would be room. Losing either, or both, open up a whole different can of worms not to be discussed here. I agree with Tom, beyond the re-signing of Clippard, that there should be room for ONE GUY for about $4-5M. Does May really rank that highly on other teams list? I like him a lot. And I repeat that if he was a FA from another team, we might be clamoring for the Twins to sign him. But not a proven closer, does be really get $6-7M for multiple years from someone else? IDK, maybe he does. Maybe he doesn't and wants to stick with the Twins for $4-5M per. Like the RP offered, maybe a Yates or Hunter comes on board for a shot at winning for a $3-5M deal. Any way you want to slice up the roster and payroll pie, I'm looking at Clippard back and one more veteran arm for $3-5M, plus one more cheap flier with some sort of split contract or opt out deal.

There are two kinds of service time manipulation out there. The Twins and other lower market teams, in the past, have been known for the mid-season service time manipulation where you call them up mid-season just after super 2 time and you get 6.5 seasons of control. Then there is the late April call up manipulation, like what Bryant faced for Cubs. That one gives teams almost full 7 years of control, but at higher price of extra year of arbitration. I am thinking the FO will do more like what they did with Polanco, Sano, and Kepler. They will look to just buy out those years by paying extra early, but hoping it is good deal late. Some players are for that knowing they have long term security, others have rejected betting on themselves. I hope Alex starts all year and racks up some big hits. Worry about deal down road.

Baseball-reference.com has this type of "split" for viewing. Here is the split for 2019: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=keplema01&year=2019&t=b#all_defp You'll see there that there was a slight dip in offense, .791 OPS in 242 PA as a CF, versus .885 in 296 PA as a RF. But the split went the other way the season prior to that, .767 versus .711 respectively. I skipped 2020 because he registered only 7 PA while playing CF. Cave was the primary CF backup this year. Kepler had 0 hits in those 7 PA, but that's much too small a sample size for me to draw any conclusions from. When you slice and dice statistics you will see some disparities just by the luck of the draw, so I wouldn't say I see much of a trend to Kepler's time in CF versus RF.

I think you've got better odds of seeing Rooker at 1B than Kirilloff in the next few years. Kirilloff is solid in the corners so I would expect him to stick there. I'm a huge fan of Kirilloff: he's got enough power production for the modern corner OF but he pairs it with tremendous bat control and good understanding of the strike zone. He's going to get a ton of hits and hit for a high average with enough walks to make the OBP look good. The hit tool is really great and he's going to be a guy you really want at the plate with runners in scoring position. He's not going to be chasing and swinging at tons of pitches outside of the zone and is willing to take a walk, but will most definitely swing the bat. He might not replace Rosario's power right away, but I don't think he'll be far off, and he will hit better overall. He won't replace Rosario's arm, but will likely be more consistent in the OF in catching the ball from recent vintages. I don't think the Twins play service time games with him because a) he's ready to go, and they will have a need. The only question mark about Kirilloff is the fact that he didn't play at AAA...and that's because there was no AAA last season.

I need some clarification guys. I've read that Kiriloff is actually an above average to good defensive 1B-man. I've also read he decent in the outfield. Not Buxton/Kepler good, but better than Rosario and Rooker. I haven't heard much about Rooker as a 1B-man. It's nitpicky but in any scenario without Rosario wouldn't we have have one of Kiriloff and Rooker in the lineup ? Also, if Sano was traded (yeah, I know I'm a broken record on this) wouldn't Kiriloff and Rooker BOTH be in the lineup? Who is at 1B and who is in LF ?? I just think both kids have shown they will HIT. In order to sign a free agent SP and/or RP the Twins MUST welcome the youth movement. BOTH Kiriloff and Rooker should break camp with the team.

That was my joke. I can't imagine a team taking a player with so little experience and such poor performance in his most recent sample. Last year he was a long shot. This year I don't think it's worth considering.

I thought the same thing, but I don't really see much of a loss in losing a defense-only catcher prospect... unless he proves he can hit at a decent level, you can find that kind of guy for very cheap in the free agent market. Jax wasn't added and didn't get claimed last year, don't think he will this year. He's about to turn 26 and isn't regarded as much of a prospect, so we shouldn't lose him.

I discount any production from Escobar after signing his FA contract: you simply can't say that the Twins would have gotten any of that. Maybe AZ signs him. Maybe another team signs him. Maybe to keep him the Twins have to add 2-3M per year. It's too speculative. They had half a season left of control and flipped him for a guy who projects to be a top half of the rotation starter. That's really good value. De La Trinidad looks like minor league depth at this point, but Maciel might be something more. But I agree: really hard to evaluate minor league guys who didn't get to play. Duran is the real piece for the Twins, and he's looking on track to pitch for the team in 2021 or 2022. The fastball splitter combo is an effective one and if his curve can be a solid third offering then he's got a pitch mix that can allow him to be an excellent starter. The stuff is there, the build looks right to stay healthy and strong. He keeps the ball in the park and the walks aren't too bad, so if he can keep this level of control at the MLB level he'll be fine. He definitely has the stuff to finish off hitters. I like this trade for the Twins.

To all concerned, We are living in uncertain times as a society right now, that's a given. And with all that is taking place right now, perhaps anyone reaching out with any sort of thought or plea regarding a sports franchise would seem superfluous in such times. Yet, I write. I write because life must go on, and indeed, it does carry on regardless. And such things as sports is an ingrained and relatively important part of our society and culture. Who I am individually is not really pertinent save to say I am a sports fan and an avid Twins fan through ups and downs for nearly 50yrs of my life. I am a Midwesterner born and raised and fit probably, financially speaking, as middle to maybe lower-middle class in our world as it is now. I can't and won't pretend what it might be like to be in charge of a multi-million/billion franchise. But intelligence and practicality doesn't have a price tag. Not a one of us fans out here in tbe public world has a true grasp on the ultimate, bottom line numbers of expenses and profit and loss of owning a franchise such as the Twins. And loss is definitely a key word after the 2020 season and how it relates to MLB in general and the Twins specifically. To be frank, despite all of us debating such things as payroll, contracts, a player's financial worth and the such, we get lost in abstract details. Very few of us can even comprehend the earnings of a ML rookie, much less the multi-million dollar earnings of an established player. I think very few of us truly ever begrudge a player trying to earn as much money as they can. For myself, I simply can't look at an owner of any business, much less a sports franchise, and loudly proclaim it is my right as a fan to demand you lay out as much as you can monetarily to make myself and hundreds of thousands of fans "happy". From a mom and pop shop to a sports franchise, how could this make any business sense? But I WOULD argue that owning a public entertainment business, such as a sports team, does have a different weight. Ownership wise, there is nothing wrong with wanting to earn profit from said franchise. But I think we all are wise enough to know and understand that those who own such an industry also don't rely on that investment as a sole income. So there is where the rub comes. As owners and FO, you have made significant changes over the past few years to rebuild the Twins organization from the top on down. You have done so with investments in infrastructure and intelligent moves personnel wise. You have spent unprecedented financially while still being intelligent and even frugal...never just blowing the lid off. I commend you for the changes that have taken place. YOU, FO and ownership, are at a strange precipice I'm sure you never saw coming. Unlike many franchises, you have done "right" thus far by paying your milb players and not dismissing employees in droves. Again, I applaud you. But where do we go from here? Jim Pohlad had a recent interview concerning the state of MLB. I found his comments to be open, honest and succinct. I'm not sure how other owners, or agents or players received them, but I think he was spot on as to the current situation taking place. What I found to be interesting and revealing were his comments that...paraphrasing here...2020 was what it was and is done, and the Twins organization is not looking to recoup any sort of financial losses in regard to 2021 and beyond. And so, at length...some would say FINALLY...this brings us to the crux of my letter to you all. There is a universal opinion, rightly so, that there will be some sort of financial cutback across MLB post covid 2020 and with unanswered questions concerning 2021. There has been some rather wild speculation that a depressed and possibly saturated market of possible FA players available an organization could pounce on opportunity to "buy" contention and a possible title. I think we're all intelligent enough to know this is a fallacy and fool's errand. But I WOULD argue that opportunity DOES present itself. In anything approaching normalcy this current off-season, a top and contending team like the Twins would AT LEAST expect a status quo payroll wise, if not a bump. Even in 2019 and '20, the Twins payroll was just under the ML mean. One might easily expect something like a 10% bump in payroll for 2021 for a contending team. I don't ask you to bump payroll in these strange and uncertain times. I'm not even asking you to not cut payroll. But I AM asking you to look at the BIG PICTURE of your franchise. Were you to keep payroll the same, or slightly lower...say a 5% cut...trusting in your talent and intelligent FO, I wonder if the potential dividends wouldn't ultimately pay large dividends. Regards to you all.

They both look like possibilities. Right now IMO Garver would not be a good trade bait we wouldn`t get very much for him, majority of the line up had a bad 2020. But what scares me most is Cohen w/ those velvet pockets buying up a ton of FAs at discount.

These are all good arguments for many years in Twins history. However, this coming season will be pivotal for the Twins because of the core foundation in their system. If the Twins are not ready to compete with Berrios, Maeda, Rogers, Duffey, Garver, Sano, Polanco, Buxton, Kepler and so forth ... then let them be free agents and field a team at $20 million this year. This winter will be anxiously exciting with the Yankees stewing because they didn't win, the Mets looking to blow wads of cash stupidly, and among the viable teams for the 2021 World Series are the Twins. Decisions about who to fill their roster should be solely based on what makes the team better. The manipulation done with young players will go away with the next CBA because of the shenanigans of the last decade. Kirilloff, Larnach, Rooker, Duran, and others should or should not make the team based solely on if they make the Twins a better team. Same with trades or free agent signings. The window is open now.

This team is too good to get a high draft pick, but not good enough to go on a real playoff run. 8-8 here we come baby! I'd feel a lot better about our outlook if we could have let Kirk hit free agency at the end of the year (plus get a comp pick) and search for a new solution.

I don’t see a loss on the remaining schedule... 11-5 BaBy! Dalvin’s last 2 weeks have been absurd! 6 TD, 479 total yards.

And now Trebek. Just think of the Celebrity Jeopardy episode that Connery and Trebek are putting together now... RIP, Alex Trebek.

Thank you! I too did some more looking. I didn`t find any stats but I found an interview w/ Kepler saying that he enjoyed playing CF & said it was easy for him to play there. I believe those aspects would translate into productive ABs

I often see comments about the so-so numbers Kirilloff put up at AA two years ago. Yet, few mention that he played all or most of the year with a wrist injury. I wasn't there, but have to assume that it had a significant impact on his production.

It would not be a big deal if Kirilloff never played at AAA had he tore up AA but that’s not the case. He had a 756 OPS at AA. That’s not exactly screaming the player has proven he is ready to jump AAA to the MLB level. The guy who has earned a spot on the big league club is Rooker. He takes Rosario’s spot and we have a good 4th OFer in Cave with Wade as depth. We don’t have a burning need so to burn a year of service time when Kirilloff is in his prime just to have him for the 1st 6 weeks of horrible asset management. Let Kirilloff and/or Larnach prove they are ready to play on the ML club.

Put Kirilloff on opening day roster, service time issue is a travesty. I would not extend him this year, but do it before arbitration like Twins did with Polonco and Kepler. One MLB game not enough to extend. Kirilloff is ready no need to go to AAA. Reports from alternate site say he hit between .400 and .500, hope that means he is a great hitter and not that the pitching was bad.

Very interesting, Doc. And I join you in commending the Twins on their stated position that they are not looking to recover the losses of 2020. But that doesn't mean they won't, and shouldn't be looking at significant cuts for 2021. I have stated here previously that I could foresee substantial cuts should it continue to appear that fans either will not be allowed for games or be allowed in limited numbers. And nothing has happened over the last five months (COVID is getting worse in Minnesota) that would change playing under the same health guidelines as this past summer. Part of that problem could be alleviated should the players agree to some type of adjustment to reflect the loss of those dollars. Unfortunately, that will be a battle that might effect the length of the 2021 season and likelihood of having a 2022 season. A battle the owners seem to be playing the losing side of.

Good question. And a relevant one as well with Buxton's continual injuries. I've heard it "speculated" just as you put it, that Kepler's offense suffers. Yet I can't remember reading or hearing the evidence that this is actually TRUE.

I agree that this service time thing should be changed. I`d like if we could bring up all of our top prospects, at least the positional ones, I believe the pitchers could use some more time to develop more as starters. Like you said the corner OF, DH, 1B positions (especially last year) was not a need but a viable CF, SS, 2B, 3B back up was. Lewis had a spectacular AFL & at St, Paul he was scouted as their best hitter but he wasn`t called up because they said he wasn`t ready (meaning he is a prime prospect & that they want to hold back his service time). Depending what happens this off season, the earliest they`d be called up is May except maybe Jeffers . Because our need for a RH platoon corner OF & Rooker`s service time is not an issue, he be the 1st to be called up. I don`t see FO changing their philosophy, sorry to say

The whole service time system is without a doubt the worst thing in all sports. Imagine how much better the game would be is a large percentage of its best players weren’t in an obscure inferior league somewhere.

I think you’ve captured it well, Doc. For most of us mortals, it’s hard for us to think of anything but recouping our losses when we hit a tough spot. And there will probably be certain teams who justifiably take that approach. It’s defensible. But you’re right — the opportunity is there for smart teams to zig and spend money (or maintain budget) when others zag and tighten up. And perhaps because I’m the eternal optimist, I see the Pohlads as owners who may well be willing to take that approach. This summer, for example, much was made of their charitable contributions in response to the George Floyd incident. They seemed to take their role as a corporate citizen seriously. FDR pushed baseball to continue playing during WW2 because the country needed. I could see the Pohlads taking the same approach on behalf of the MSP community, particularly when they consider that the return generated by a championship could turn it into a wise investment. I know this isn’t a “should we keep Eddie” discussion, but I think the approach you’re suggesting may give a rationale for keeping him. Yes, Kirilloff and Rooker are options, but neither has much AAA time, and keeping Eddie makes it easier to save the service time on them. Additionally, few teams ever get through the season without an outfielder getting hurt. So start the season with Rosario/Buxton/Kepler as the outfield and plan to call up whichever one is playing better when one of the starters get hurt. And if they don’t get hurt and one or the other (or both) is kicking down the door, that’s a great problem to have.

That is the challenge. Normally we would have a sample of 400+ at bats or 50-130 innings to consider, and scouts would have had lots more opportunities to see something. I just don't know what's going to happen. As for Rortvedt, the catcher position is so demanding. Rortvedt can catch in the big leagues right now. Don't see a lot of catchers taken in the Rule 5 draft... But sometimes I wonder if that's because the prospects and mid-level prospect catchers get protected?

Colina was already protected when he was put on the 40-man roster in-season. Rijo, Javier and Jax all passed through this year and none of them were even brought to the player pool, so I 'think' their odds of being selected are lower than I thought last year, but again, it just takes one team taking a shot.

Nicely laid out and reasoned. I have a couple of changes, one of them big. C Gaver & Jeffers 1B Kiriloff 2B Arraez Schoop SS Polanco Adrianza 3B Donaldson OF Kepler, Buxton, Rooker, Cave DH Cruz SP Maeda, Berrios, Pineda, Ray, Dobnak RP Hand, Duffey, Rogers, Alcala, Wisler, Stashak, Clippard, Ed. Colina In this scenario I trade Sano and put Kiriloff at 1B. I save 11.5 million. I'm not going to say WHO we trade Sano for, that could make for some good discussion elsewhere. But in not having Pillar, Sano and Soria we free up an additional 24.5 million. Rooker and Kiriloff are about 1.2 million total Brad Hand costs us 7.5 million. We still have about 7 million to play with. We could have a better backup SS, we could add another veteran piece to the bullpen or look for a bigger piece than Robbie Ray in the rotation. Having Rogers and Duffey for high leverage situations and a proven closer in Hand makes for a great bullpen.

And not having to sign Donaldson to a contract we will regret. I would rather have Esco and all that money to sign a pitcher that would be far better than Duran especially since the Twins window might be closed before Duran ever throws a pitch in the show.

-- Nathan "Chip" Hale

Agree! We just don’t know what the offer was. I’m the biggest fan when it comes to trades for starting pitching. However, I’m still stuck in the old thinking that teams want strong rotations, and if that’s not how it’s trending anymore, then I’m not sure how worthwhile it is to trade for those types of guys. I still think, build a strong 5-man rotation as possible. So I hope we see Duran in another year or two and maybe the Escobar trade starts paying dividends.

It depends on if you count the Escobar extension (which was an A+ move by Arizona) - there were reports that the Twins offered Eddie an extension, but he declined, so they traded him. At the time this seemed like an underwhelming deal, but it's been encouraging to see Duran turn into a top 5 prospect. It's still anyone's guess if he pans out, but we needed to get these type of pitching prospects into the system. I think Maciel's ability to make contact and hold a high average will at least get him to the majors. I'd guess De La Trinidad doesn't make the big leagues.

The Twins simply were not very good that year. They were not going to be even remotely serious contenders with or without him. The way I I see, they can't loose for having made a trade in a year they were not going to contend. The question is did the acquire anyone who will contribute. If they get an average ML starter ... it's a win. If they get a mid rotation SP it's a win. If Duran is a solid #2SP ... It's a huge win. If we get two average ML starters ... it's a huge win. If you look back throughout the past decade, they are 4X more players on playoff rosters that are acquired in similar transactions as compared to trading for impact players. Getting something out of players about to be FAs is a huge boost to building a contender in a mid-market. We could have been a little better and enjoyed Eduardo for another couple months. If it turns out we get someone who makes us significantly better for 6 or more years, I will take that path every time.

Wasn’t a fan of this one. Escobar went in the fire sale of 2018, when many players were traded. The Twins were 7 games back but I would have liked to see how the pennant race played out. The Twins were sellers the season before, as well, and then rallied. It will be fun when Duran makes his debut, even if the lustre and glow of being a starting pitcher is starting to wear off.

Anybody know where one can buy one of the robes? I've searched and can't find much online.