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Only a novice, but I kinda get and kinda understand all the modern day analytics. I kinda get WAR as well. It all sounds so smart and well researched. And then I read about how many WAR options there are. And pitchers, let's just stop before we get in to various ERA and FIP this and that. At some point...a player performs or he doesn't. Your eye shows you a guy is good or stinks at certain things, albeit with stats to help you make your final decision. But the catcher position in baseball is so unique that I care very little about statistics or rankings. There was a time when you hit, or you didn't. But managers and pitchers would talk about handling a staff, and calling a game, and leading a staff or team. Before there was Butera there was Boone. And if you don't know Boone, look him up. And if you don't know either...I don't know what to tell you. Modern metrics have really messed with catcher "rankings" in my opinion. Unless you are in the clubhouse, dug out, or on the field, you really don't know how good that catcher is or the job he does. Castro was good. Castro did a lot in his 2 healthy seasons for the Twins. I would have liked to keep him for a 60/40 ish split for 2020 since the 50/50 worked so well in 2019 but Garver is ready for more. IMO, the Twins were lucky to find an almost exact equivalent in Avilla for next season to replace Castro. What I don't understand is NO rumors and NO reported offers for Castro until this deal. Was he asking for and expecting too much? I'm guessing that is the case. Otherwise, I think the Twins would have spent a bit more to keep status quo. I think he was looking for a real shot at being the #1 guy and was disappointed. I think he was important for the club while here and for Garver's growth as well. Best of luck to him. Glad we have a nice #2 option available who is respected.

The new analytics have changed how we see a leadoff hitter. Arraez seems like the best fit for the more traditional model of the recent past with the exception of stolen bases, but that's a moot point since the Twins never run anwyay. He's also the best fit for the new more analytics-driven model. I would love to see Arraez and Polanco at the top of the order and let Kepler hit in an RBI spot (3-5). I'd keep Buxton at 9. Great to have his speed (when he gets on base) in front of guys like Arraez and Polanco when the lineup rolls over.

Since Castro signed with the Angels, your odds of dating Scarlett Johansson are now infinitely better than him signing with the Twins. Best of luck!!

Don't know how much it affects your thinking, but I believe that the minimum stay for an optioned pitcher becomes 15 days in 2020.

Y'know, now that I think about it, they never said the pitching they were looking for would have a POSITIVE impact.

Not much trade value after reading this page.... The kid's 23 y.o., for chrissakes. The question still remaining after this article is, given Thorpe's below-average Statcast data, how did he achieve remarkable whiff and SO rates? Stated another way, what did Thorpe do right and how does he do more of that?

You had me at “Yankees contracted.”

They should have had Arraez lead off from the get go. That would have been better for the team & him personally

Huge fan of Lewis'. Became even more of one when I interviewed him in Cedar Rapids while Joe Mauer was rehabbing there before he missed a few seasons (one of them to illness, not injury). He's got the stuff to be a good starter, as evidenced by several numbers here. What needs to catch up is his use of his fastball, where I think he got hit pretty good last year. Maybe he needs a version with some different movement, whether a cutter or 2-seamer/sinker. He's also still very young. I wouldn't sleep on continued development that takes advantage of his current strengths in tandem with work to mitigate his deficiencies. I have more faith that he'll stick around than I do guys like Smeltzer and Dobnak.

If Thorpe is just a little more effective this year than Gibson was last year, then he will have progressed nicely. Pitching takes time as we have seen from Berrios and others. Gibson and Perez had uneven results and the Twins just need a little more consistency and slight improvements from the pitchers who pitch in those two slots. I'm afraid that there will be some pressure on Berrios and Odorizzi to be stronger though. That was a reason to slot someone (a FA signing) above those two. I am optimistic about the depth of the Twins pitching but concerned about their ability to be consistent. If the pitchers keep the scores down, around four, the offense should produce. A most concerning issue for many is the lack of an arm above Berrios, or to slide in above Odorizzi. At some point this season a trade seems likely, but I doubt any team will part with a pitcher the Twins need before July.

The first time I watched Castro catch a game for the Twins was a complete revelation. Nothing against Kurt Suzuki. He was/is decent with the bat, but behind the plate he is not comparable to Castro. Castro was a great signing.

"replacement" level in WAR is 0. Castro was significantly better than replacement level. His first, healthy year he was a solid starting catcher. His second year he was injured (it happens) and he didn't add (or subtract) much value since he barely played. His 3rd year, he was a backup and played like one. Since you can't predict injury, I think the contract ends up being fine. We got the starter we needed in year one, and by the time the contract was up, Garver was in place to take his ABs. That's not a bad result from a free agency move. If he hadn't blown out the knee, there's little doubt in my mind that he easily outperforms the contract. Since there's injury risk in every contract, you can't flip out too much about the results.

Nobody seems concerned that maybe we get the Homer Bailey of the prior 2 years that was 7-23 with an ERA over 6. I hope we get last year's results, but who knows. As for the Wes Johson Kool-aid everyone seems to be on, he has been here 1 year with mixed results. I like the guy, but people have him just turning around pitchers right and left and finding velocity. A couple guys had success, but what happened with Berrios? Guy turned into a complete disaster mid-season. Perez turned back into a disaster. I'm going to need to see a lot more going forward to say Wes Johnson is the pitching messiah.

He's the only young arm that I think fans should realistically be excited about. He can be a legit ML starter. Probably not an all-star but he should have a solid career.

Okay, everyone ... take a breath ... back to the topic, and not on each other and insults.

With two starting pitchers now in the mix who will not be available until well after the season starts, it's increasingly likely the Twins will open with at least one young internal option in the rotation. Among MLB-ready arms, Lewis Thorpe might be most intriguing.He's presently a decent contender to make the 26-man roster out spring training. Even if the Twins add another starter and push him to Triple-A, a healthy Thorpe is almost certain to play a role over the course of the season, and perhaps a significant one. Named the organization's Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2018, Thorpe headed into this 2019 campaign with a head of steam. Twins Daily ranked him as the organization's eighth-best prospect coming in, noting that his less-than-dominant results seemed to belie the quality of his stuff, as reflected by an outstanding K/BB ratio and whiff rate. Thorpe's paradoxical profile played out once again in 2019, except to an even greater degree, and this time Twins fans got to see it first-hand. In 124 total innings between Triple-A (96.1 IP) and the majors (27.2 IP), the left-hander piled up 150 strikeouts. As Thieres Rabelo pointed out here last month: "Among the 73 pitchers who logged 90 or more innings in Triple-A last season, Thorpe had the highest K/9 (11.12), swinging strike rate (14.5) and was second in K% (29.5)." Not half-bad for a 23-year-old with four games of experience above Double-A entering the year. And during his fairly brief time in the majors, hitters kept missing on his pitches. In 12 appearances (two starts), Thorpe averaged 10.1 K/9 and his 11.8% swinging strike rate was higher than – among others – Taylor Rogers, Jose Berrios, and Brusdar Graterol. And yet, the results just weren't there for Thorpe. Despite his terrific 28% K-rate between the two levels, he also allowed 68 earned runs in his 124 total innings of work (4.94 ERA). That includes a 6.18 ERA during his MLB debut. It's not like his whiffs were paired with poor control – he issued only 35 walks to go along with the 150 strikeouts – but once again the strong K/BB ratio didn't translate to shutdown production. There are a few ways to look at this. The pessimistic view is that Thorpe is doomed to this disconnect – capable of attacking the zone and running up the strikeout rate, but lacking the ability to get outs on a consistent basis. Do the strikeout and whiff numbers exaggerate his arsenal's true quality? He'd hardly be the first. Thorpe's limited Statcast data would seem to support this notion. Download attachment: thorpestatcast.png The more optimistic, and I think more fair, view is that Thorpe's results are still catching up to his stuff. He's finding his consistency. It's important to remember: he lost two full seasons (2015 and 2016) to health issues. Since returning, he's been fast-tracked, making relatively brief stops at High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A on his way to the majors. While he hasn't been amazing everywhere, he has shown the capacity to overpower hitters everywhere. The Twins should probably plan on starting him back at Triple-A in 2020, but the 24-year-old could be poised for a big step forward and a sizable impact on the big-league club. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

The day was Nov. 30, 2016 and it was the day that everything changed. By “everything” I of course mean the Twins’ catching situation which, naturally, is the only thing that matters. On that day, Jason Castro was inked to a three-year deal worth $24 million and it remains the biggest free agent contract handed out to a position player by the Twins in their history.Castro’s deal reached its end after this past season and with the signing of Alex Avila along with Mitch Garver becoming literally Mike Piazza, the odds of him returning are about the same as me dating Scarlett Johansson, so allow me to look back on Castro’s deal and see how both parties did. Castro presented an interesting example of the shift in thinking in the Twins as this was the first “major” deal handed out by the front office now headed by Derek Falvey and Thad Levine and it appeared that they were starting to apply their ideas to the current roster. This included signing a player who is easily overlooked by traditional stats but brings value through more advanced ways of looking at players. Some may have seen his career .232 batting average and scoffed at why the Twins would even bother while others would look at his OPS+ of 93 (above average for catchers) and excellent advanced defensive stats and see a great player hidden underneath the tyranny of RBIs. “Value” is tough to exactly define in baseball but $/WAR gives us a good general starting point to tackle the issue. 1 WAR comes out to about $8-9 million dollars on the free agent market but this relationship isn’t linear as teams rarely pay $8 million a year for a player worth 1 WAR and players worth 3 WAR don’t typically make $24 million a year on the market. Castro’s deal does however give us a good base as his contract of $24 million would mean that he needs to put up just ~3 WAR over the course of his contract for his performance to equal what the Twins paid for. Luckily for both Castro and the Twins, he was more or less worth exactly that. Baseball-reference’s version of WAR (rWAR) has him at 3.1 in his time with the Twins while Fangraphs (fWAR) has him at 3.7 and Baseball Prospectus (WARP) has him at 4.0. His bat was more or less what it was with the Astros as his OPS+ with the Twins was 91 compared to 93 with the Astros. The public defensive numbers we have available are also quite kind to Castro as Fangraphs as he has been the 14th best pitch framer in baseball since he signed with the Twins (min 1500 innings). This doesn’t sound too impressive but many of the names ahead of him are purely defensive specialists like Jeff Mathis who also couldn’t hit their way out of a cardboard box (Mathis has a career wRC+ of 46), so Castro was one of the few catchers who could hit at an average level and defend well. Beyond that, it seemed like Castro brought more to the table than just his ability on the field. Unfortunately, I am not in the clubhouse so I don’t know exactly how everything shook out in there but it seemed like many pitchers were outspoken in how he worked with the pitching staff in both calling games and pre-game preparation. The catcher position more than any other is one that demands more than just on-field performance and it appeared that Castro was useful there as well. Castro was never an eye-popping player but he was a solid role-player who brought good value to a team that needed a strong defensive catcher and he was worth almost exactly what his contract paid him. The Twins also made the playoffs in both of the seasons he was healthy, coincidence? Most definitely, but still something fun to think about when considering a player’s value. UPDATE: Jeff Passan of ESPN reports Castro is joining the Angels. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

I don't know if I would trade Lewis Thorpe straight-up for Matthew Boyd much less add a potential All Star like Larnach and a fast-rising SP option like Canterino. Three top ten Twins prospects for Chris Sale's horrible elbow and contract? I think the Twins would have to add something to Buxton to get Thor, but it shouldn't be a guy like Kirilloff. I would be good with Archer for Rooker and Gordon, I think.

Luis Arraez should be the Twins leadoff hitter for at least the next five seasons, unless he gets moved to bring in pitching.

I really liked what I saw flash last year, I just want to see more consistency in his control. Young, aggressively promoted the last 2 years and a rookie seeing his first ML action. Not surprising he doesn't look finished yet. Can't remember who we played, but there was a 4 IP performance when he looked almost dominate for the first 3 innings before seeing his numbers inflate the 4th inning as he took one for the team. You could see the potential there.

I'm not all that interested in trading for a position player right now; I want Donaldson because he's an elite player who can fill a need while significantly raising bar and only costing money. I'd much rather spend assets on trading for pitching; there's several 1B options on the FA market if Donaldson can't be convinced to leave Atlanta that would replace Cron's production nicely. Bell's a good hitter but prying a 27-year old relatively cheap asset out of Pittsburgh isn't going to be cheap. If he can sustain this level of offensive production while making marginal improvements on D, he's a borderline all-star. But is that the guy we want to dump a haul of prospect assets on? Especially if there's a concern that Sano isn't going to stick at 3B? You're not getting Bell for Rooker & Romero and an A-ball guy. Pittsburgh might not demand Royce Lewis, but they're going to want a significant asset to headline the package, not a couple of guys that are in the 20-25 range in the system. Archer is the more interesting guy over at Pittsburgh, IMHO.

Those numbers look eerily similar to the second half numbers of the backup catcher we signed for 2020, albeit for $2 mill less than what Castro got. .185/.306/.359 ---- .654 OPS ---- 4 HR, 7 RBI and 44 K in 92 AB. Gotta save that money! JP probably has his eyes on the new Rolls-Royce Phantom.

I would have to imagine he will be starting in Anaheim and was looking for a more solid role with Garver emerging as the more often than not starter. Not to mention Castro's bat fell off a cliff in the 2nd half. 2nd half numbers: .191/.333/.299. .632 OPS. 3 HR, 6 RBI and 49 K in 97 AB.

I wish Gonzo and Romero would have realized it was just that easy to fix.

You could be right. I assume there is a ton of stuff inside the walls that could explain why a starter wasn't acquired that doesn't reach the public. The only thing I can do is look at what I can see and I see that a starter wasn't acquired. Why I don't know. I can only assume that you are at the mercy of meeting the other's price when you have need and competition for that need will drive the price up. However... the need for a starter didn't go away once a starter wasn't acquired. If the price was too high they had to fill that need with the options available.

As of now it is a certainty one of the lefty's, either Thorpe or Smeltzer heads north with the club in the rotation. Spring training results will determine this. I am both scared and excited to watch our collection of young starters this spring. We've positioned ourselves so that we need at least 2 of them to take a major step forward. Roll the dice gentlemen seems to be the bet. I'll bet on Dobnak and Smeltzer to begin the season. I am actually weirdly confident in Dobnak. I like his chances. His mental game seems superior to Thorpe's right now. Dobs is ready for this. We'll see who else is. Maybe Thorpe is ready as well. I hope so.

Should've proof read my comment before posting.

I think we all remember Jim Pohlad's famous comment about total system failure after the 2016 season. That was not just an idle comment. He took seriously the need to make changes, and so he initiated a complete restructuring of the entire franchise. It is easy to become impatient, but keep in mind that it takes a number of years to implement a top-to-bottom change in personnel and philosophy in a franchise and even longer for the results to be seen at the major league level. We are only three years in so it's still early. Even though I don't know the inner workings of the organization I get the strong feeling that Derek Falvey knows what he is doing. I share Mr. Schwerzler's optimism and snide remarks such as those above do not dissuade me.

The Twins will probably need an ace to make a World Series run in 2020. José Berríos may have another level, and Jake Odorizzi was excellent in 2019, but this team clearly craves a frontline dueler. Here are four players and deals that could make that happen:1. Minnesota Twins receive: LHP Matthew Boyd Detroit Tigers receive: OF Trevor Larnach, LHP Lewis Thorpe, RHP Matt Canterino Why the Twins would accept: Boyd posted a 3.87 ERA and 142 strikeouts in 107 innings before the break. He struggled in the second half, but there is belief that he is on the cusp of a complete breakout. Boyd has three years of team control and his strikeout numbers are great. Why the Tigers would accept: The Tigers know that with little talent and Miguel Cabrera’s contract on the books, they won’t be competitive until after Boyd enters free agency. Moving him within the division is not ideal, but I don’t see Detroit landing a better deal than this one. 2. Minnesota Twins receive: LHP Chris Sale and cash Boston Red Sox receive: RHP Brusdar Graterol, C Ryan Jeffers, OF Gilberto Celestino Why the Twins would accept: Sale was a consistent ace for seven years, finishing in the top-5 for the Cy-Young Award in all but one season, where he finished sixth. He has a career 3.03 ERA with 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings. The demand for return is less because of the remaining contract (5-years, $145 million). Why the Red Sox would accept: Newly hired GM Chaim Bloom has inherited a club filled with massive contracts and an expiring contract with superstar Mookie Betts. Moving Price could be the preference, but it remains questionable whether a team will take on the majority of the three years and $96 million left on his contract. 3. Minnesota Twins receive: RHP Chris Archer Pittsburgh Pirates receive: OF Brent Rooker and 2B/SS Nick Gordon Why the Twins would accept: Archer still pumps 94 MPH with his four-seam fastball and his slider remains elite, developing a 42% whiff rate and expected batting line of .230/.295/.359 in 2019. Archer will make $9 million in 2020 with an $11 million club option in 2021. Why the Pirates would accept: The Pirates are trying to start a new decade with fresh faces. Former Twins bench coach Derek Shelton is their manager and Ben Cherington took over as GM. Maybe they won’t sell low, but maybe they will. This is not the same front office that traded away Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow for Archer at the 2018 deadline. 4. Minnesota Twins receive: RHP Noah Syndergaard New York Mets receive: OF Byron Buxton and OF Alex Kirilloff Why the Twins would accept: Falvine can give the Twins their true ace, a monster who throws 98 MPH. The one they call “Thor” hasn't been as sharp in recent years but is still excellent and has two more seasons of team control. A rotation of Syndergaard, José Berríos, Jake Odorizzi, and Michael Pineda can certainly give the Yankees a run for their money. Why the Mets would accept: With the signings of Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha, the Mets have six starters and five rotation spots. It has been rumored that Steven Matz may be the one to go, but a much better return can be found with Syndergaard. The Mets already asked for a similar deal at the deadline. There is real dialogue here. Which trades do you like/dislike for the Twins? Please leave a comment! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Can Lewis Thorpe Translate Whiffs into Results? http://twinsdaily.co...o-results-r8791 — Recent Twins discussion in our forums http://twinsdaily.com/index — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Minnesota’s search for impact pitching this off-season went sideways. While visions of Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu danced in the fanbase’s heads, the cold reality was a New Year’s Eve signing of Homer Bailey and Rich Hill. Put another way, this is like asking for the Lego Millennium Falcon for your birthday and instead getting the Lago Century Bird from the dollar store that always smells like fish. Thanks for putting in the effort, Dad.Still, it’s a good month and a half until pitchers and catchers report, and absent a Josh Donaldson signing or a franchise-altering trade, you have a grim winter stretch ahead of you. You’ll need to start talking yourself into Bailey and Hill being the saviors this rotation so desperately needs. Here’s how: Homer Bailey has thrown two no-hitters in his career. Yes, they were 7-8 years ago. But! The Rule of Threes exists for a reason. He’s due!Rich Hill just got arrested because his wife got arrested over the NFL’s exquisitely dumb personal bag policy. He’s a bad boy who fights for justice and stands up for his family! This is arguably the most interesting thing a Twins player has done off the field since Steve Lombardozzi and Dan Gladden started wrasslin’ on the Dazzle Man’s property.This is just a note that I would watch a 30-for-30 about that fight right now.The AL Central is going to be bad again. Detroit and Kansas City will be SuperFund sites. Chicago will be interesting and annoying but probably nothing more than that. Nobody knows what Cleveland is doing but no one thinks it’s good. You can probably ride this rotation as it stands to another title and move the impact pitching goal posts to a midseason trade.Reiterating that we need a documentary about the Lombo/Gladden fight or the bad vibes of the whole 1988 season. Gaetti finding the Lord and alienating Hrbek, the Brunansky/Herr disaster, the trade of future Moneyball architect Billy Beane…it’s all there, folks.Houston gets a postseason ban for cheating. Hey, they do it in college sports all the time! Take a seat, you garbage can-banging scofflaws.The New York Yankees get contracted for reasons.The Twins are going to the World Series with Homer Bailey and Rich Hill leading the way.There. I’ve talked you into it. If the Gophers can beat Auburn in a New Year’s Day bowl game, this can happen too. (That said they should definitely trade for somebody. Anybody. Please.) Click here to view the article

Funny, not sure why but I went through the same exercise a couple days ago and came up with the same answer. Arraez it is!!!

Top 20!

Lets be honest the 5th spot will be a rotation of players going back and forth between AAA, unless one flat out is great. Thorpe starts and after the game he will be on a plan back to AAA Smelzter will be up ready to pitch in relief or the next start, then after the game he will be sent down and the next guy will be here. There really will be no reason to have 5 set starters, when then continue to keep guys fresh and innings count down by sending them down for 10 days. IMO

He's 23 but missed 2 years so I still have high hopes for him. Your #1 point is everything, or at least a lot of things. Pineda walked 1.7 per 9. Berrios was at 2.3. Odorizzi was a little bit of an outfiler but 3 of his best 4 seasons have been when his walk rate was 2.6 or less. Still, our 3 best pitchers had the 3 best walk rates. Walks translate into runs. Walks also indicate you probably have some issues with control inside the zone as well. Get walks down around 2 per 9 and he will be great. If he can't, he won't.

I am still hoping for Graterol at least for the suspension and injury start of the season (Pineda and Hill). So Thorpe or Dobnak can fill the other slot in the rotation. One of those three have to step forward. At this point Smeltzer and Poppen have not impressed with the kind of pitches that can be sustained as a quality starter over a full year. I like Smeltzer as the classic long man in the pen because he comes in as a contrast to the starter. I think he came in and did great as a starter last year because no one had a book on him at that point.

Your advanced metrics confirm my eye test. Your metrics are approved. Castro was a good to great signing for the Twins. Best wishes for a successful twilight to your career Jason. Just not against the Twins.

As Castro really only played basically 2 years of the 3 year contract, it comes out to $12 million/year. Not the best value. But it could have been Butera, so not the worst, at all.

Odorizzi and Pineda seem like a couple of other arms worth mentioning in this list.

I agree with you, Ted.The regular season 2019 was the most fun I have ever had watching a regular season of the Twins, day in and day out. Plus I could see most games on mlb.com., even though I live thousands of miles away from Minnesota. I too want to win a World Series title every year. But I realize it ain't gonna happen. But even the most pessimist posters must admit that they would take 101 wins every year. The Twins must first make the playoffs, in order to win a World Series. Ted is saying that it looks like the Twins are set to be in the playoffs every year for the foreseeable future. For that, I am happy and maybe that makes me a "Nellie Forbush - cockeyed optimist".

Um, in August of 2019, Bailey faced the Brewers, the Cubs, the Giants, the Royals, and the Yankees twice. Combined win percentage of those teams was .529, which is the equivalent of an 86 win team. Only one of the bunch was truly bad, one was pretty good, and the Yankees were obviously great.

The A's can be even more frugal than the Twins. Their payroll cap is maybe ~70% of the Twins. $7 mil is a bigger relative commitment to them -- they only have one SP making that much in 2020, and may not feel they have room for another. (Or need, as Nick alludes to -- even without Bailey and losing Brett Anderson, they still have Fiers, Bassitt, Montas, Manaea, Luzardo, Puk, etc.)

With the late adds of Pineda and then Hill there will be constant competition and early opportunity for the young pitchers. Bailey has 8 starts to show that he is a step above Thorpe, Dobnak, Graterol or Smeltzer? He is going to need to start strong. Last year Perez started strong. Even at the trade deadline his ERA was sitting above league average at 4.38. In his three starts between the all star break and trade deadline two of them were quality starts with a poor start against the Yankees but no one had a good start in the series. The wheels came off in his first two August starts. It would be a good signing if Bailey hits the trade deadline above league average. I am hoping that one of the young pitchers does even better and the bar is set higher to stay in the rotation.

I always wonder why a team like the A's would not keep a relatively inexpensive pitcher like Bailey. They are not a team that wastes cheap talent.

How in the world are you all so negative coming off 101 wins, a front office with direction, and a post focused on a ten year sample size.

They still do, last time I checked. It is not over.

How so? Rich Hill has been one of the best pitchers in the league when he's healthy. People didn't hold that against Ryu. But mostly, calling people garbage is an awful thing to do.

How would signing Hill tell you that at all? Who knows when and if the guy will be ready to pitch. The timeline of July or midseason is pretty cloudy. It's a low risk lottery ticket where if he comes back strong it will look like an insanely intelligent signing. If he has complications, or comes back and looks done, they will be out $3M.

I am no expert, but have worked with high school players a little. To me the key issue is where his hands are and how the whipping motion generated from his start will result in a very long swing. Cody Bellinger had a similar problem when he reached the majors. His athleticism allowed him to have some success, but eventually he started to struggle. He made some significant adjustments before last season and became an MVP worthy player. Plenty of time for Royce to make the necessary adjustments to hit at the major league level. I expect big things from him this season now that he will be working with top notch hitting instructors.

True, but I think shorter batters are less effected by big legs kicks than taller/longer players. Seems like the lanky guys with long kicks/swings have struggles more....though hit for power when they do connect.

The Puckster had a ton of doubters with his high leg kick and it worked out for him Not saying Lewis will turn into Kirby II but... These guys are different animals athletically and some succeed in-spite of "mechanical flaws" Maybe that's just how he hits