Leaderboard

Eddie Rosario has always been a polarizing player for me. In his first extended stint with the Twins in 2015, he showed flashes of a really exciting all round game. He was a good base runner (4.7 runs above average), a solid defender (2.2 runs above average), and clobbered 13 home runs in his age 23 season. Rosario had excelled throughout 5 minor league destinations, and was noted for having an exceptionally quick bat and hands. There were a few major problems. Rosario struck out a lot (25% in 2015, compared to a league average 21%) and he rarely walked. Like, ever. In 2015 Rosario walked just 15 times in 474 plate appearances, good for a BB% of just 3.2%, well below the league average of 8.1%. Taken together, Rosario’s strikeouts and inability to take a walk amounted to cripplingly poor plate discipline. In 2016 some of the aspects of Rosario’s game which made him exciting disappeared. His base running regressed marginally in 2016, and majorly in 2017. His defense went from good in 2015, to acceptable in 2016, to pretty bad in 2017 (-6.2 runs above average), a dip not often discussed in the Twins heralded ‘nothing falls but raindrops’ outfield, which should be renamed to reflect the fact that anyone not named Byron Buxton is actually a poor to average defensive outfielder. Rosario’s regression and streaky hitting were so infuriating that it led to discussion about whether he would be the odd man out in the Twins up and coming outfield moving forwards, with Buxton spectacular, Kepler solid, and Zack Granite pushing for playing time with an impressive season at Rochester. Throughout his first two seasons, Rosario had shown little progress in his plate discipline, leading folks to voice the possibility that he had hit his ceiling. Enter James Rowson. If Pat Shurmur is the MVP of the Vikings this season, Rowson deserves the same plaudits for his work with Buxton, Polanco, and Rosario in 2017. In researching Rowson, two things seem to stand out about his approach with the young core of Twins hitters; firstly, he wants players to have a high comfort level in taking ownership of their own swings, secondly, he’s keenly aware of the strengths and weaknesses of hit hitters and publicly pushes those buttons. After a game against the White Sox, Rowson named Rosario the player of the game, despite going 0-4, crediting him for helping teammates see more pitches from Jose Quintana which eventually allowed them to force him from the game. Rosario’s numbers from 2017 are a testament to Rowson’s work. He increased his BB% to just under 6%, taking 23 more walks than he did in 2016. Rosario’s OBP jumped almost 30 points, despite a 26 point decrease in his BaBIP from 2016 to 2017. The main cause for this increased ability to get on base? Rosario was significantly more selective with his swings in 2017. He dropped his O-Swing % (the percentage of time he swings at pitches outside the strike zone) from 42% to 37%. This decreased his overall SwStr% around 5% and led to a significantly increased Contact% (percentage of the time a hitter makes contact when swinging at all pitches). Overall, Rosario wasn’t swinging at significantly less pitches, he’s swinging at significantly more hittable ones, leading to a spike in home runs, walks, and isolated power. Entering his final pre-arbitration year in 2018 Rosario will need to keep his improved offensive output going to offset other diminishing skill sets. If Rosario can continue to build upon his improved plate discipline in 2018, he could finish the season as one of the more offensively productive outfielders in the American league.

Front Office - do something we can be excited about.

First additional resolution that comes to mind is Max Kepler: Solve left handed pitching. Without digging into numbers, I don't recall this being a particularly obvious hole in his game in the minors, but he's looked totally lost at times against lefties at the big league level. There's nothing wrong with having a lengthy MLB career as a productive platoon outfielder and that might appear to be Kepler's "floor" right now. But he has the potential to be SO much more than that and it starts with showing he can rip on southpaws. Get it done, Max!

Ah, New Years, time for resolutions that will last a week or two. Let’s lose all our extra pounds, work out more, be smarter, be more beautiful… Well it is a time of reflection which is good and it is a time for hope. And no sport is better situated to take advantage of hope than baseball. Hockey and basketball are in the middle of their never-ending seasons and football just eliminated hope for over half their teams with the playoffs about to begin. But baseball is in the smoky haze of the hot stove. It is a time to reflect, speculate, lie, and hope. We are all equal, we can all sign the big star, we know the next great player is about to be called up from the minors, and we are all undefeated. So, until Spring training ends, I nominate the Twins as the 2018 World Series champions. I can revisit that prediction many times in the next few months and like most New Years resolutions and predictions it will be hard to remember anyway. But there are some interesting stories in MLB that revolve around that eternal hope. In 90 years baseball had no team go from worst to first! Not one. Then over the next two dozen years we had 11 teams do it. That doesn’t happen in football – sorry Cleveland – but baseball is a resilient sport. Remember 1991? The Twins and the Braves both went worst to first and the greatest world series of all times took place that year. I am still excited remembering those games and walking down the street after each victory. Then we cheat – instead of 2 leagues there are three divisions in each of the leagues giving six chances for worst to first. But if you won, who cares! Imagine the year 2000 and how impossible it would have seemed to have both the Red Sox and the Cubs win the World Series – both with the same GM! That is really worst to first. Even the seven teams that have never won a World Series: the Seattle Mariners, the Texas Rangers, the Tampa Bay Rays, the Milwaukee Brewers, the Washington Nationals, the Colorado Rockies and the San Diego Padres can look ahead and hope. Seattle and Washington can hope to get to their first world series ever. It is all possible – probably not likely – but possible. For teams that have been to the World Series, but have not won for a long, long time we always have hope – for the last two years Cleveland hoped to join the Red Sox/Cubs bandwagon, but now have a drought of 69 years since they won a championship. The Pirates are the National League team with the longest drought since winning. I remember the WE ARE FAMILY teams of Clemente and Stargell; well it has been 38 years since they won. Perhaps the most difficult drought for me to accept is in Baltimore where we had all those great Earl Weaver teams with perennial 20 game winners throughout the rotation and the Robinsons at bat and in the field. But they have 34 years since their last greatness. And the list goes on with the Tigers, Mets, Dodgers, etc. But all have hope today. Today everyone is a winner. In 2003 the Florida Marlins won a world series with Dontrelle Willis and Josh Beckett! I think that is the same team that just got rid of their MVP, all world slugger and anyone else that can lift a baseball bat, but maybe they can find the magic anyway (I doubt it). In 2003 they had Ivan Rodriguez, Derek Lee and Mike Lowell – not all studs, but they won! One of the worst world series champions, but who cares – there are no asterisks in the champion list and of course they then got rid of their best players – sounds familiar? Or the unlikely 1987 Minnesota Twins. I remember watching the Hrbek wrestling match on first base while sitting in a bar in Arizona. The bar went crazy and I had one of the best laughs ever. Do you remember who pitched besides Viola and Blyleven? Good luck. And if we are remembering worst to first we should also look back on the Florida Marlins again for some perspective. In 1997 the won the World Series and in 1998 their record was 54 – 108. What kind of ownership does this? Jeter was not around in those years. The same potential lies in every player. Mickey Vernon hit 275 before going in to the service. Then he came out to win the batting title beating teammate Ted Williams. Going back to a more natural average he hit 251 until he was 35 and suddenly won his second title – yes, every year is a clean slate. I remember the shock of Detroit Slugger Norm Cash winning the batting title win a 361 average. For 17 years he was known for home runs and not average (he was also known for corking his bat), but that year he set the league on fire. Who will be our surprise of the new year? Who will come out of no where to be the next Mark (Big Bird) Fidrych? The bird was as famous for his mound presence as he was for pitching, but a 19 – 4 record with a 2.34 era and a 1.08 Whip is hard to ignore. I remember well the 1957 seasons when the Milwaukee braves called up Bob Hazle who went crazy and was the star of the team – that included Hank Aaron, Eddie Mathews, Red Schoendienst, Warren Spahn. He hit 403 in 41 games and was probably the world series winners MVP. We all know Bill James for his Sabremetrics (Aside – I am not big on Marvin Miller, GMs, owners, umps, etc in HOF but I would put in Bill) however this is about the big surprises that carry the year and the Bill James that makes that list was a pitcher who was known as Seattle Bill. He completed 30 of 37 starts with a 1.90 era! He was outstanding in the WS as well with 11 scoreless innings for the 1914 Braves and then he faded – fast! Joe Charboneau was a Cleveland star who was going to bring back the team glory. A slugger with charisma – he even got his own song - https://www.bing.com/videos/search? q=joe+charboneau+song&view=detail&mid=C0A94198CFAADC3B4FF9C0A94198CFAADC3B4FF9&FORM=VIRE he was famous for opening beer bottles with his eyelids - Great story – short career! But how fun for Cleveland that one year. There was Brady Anderson who hit 12 – 15 homeruns a year for the Baltimore Orioles, but in 1996 he hit 50! Some stars like Bob Grim who won 20 games as a Yankee Rookie, but was devastated by a line drive are a much sadder remembrances of how things can change. Baseball is filled with stories and promise. So Happy New Year and congratulations to the 2018 World Series Champion Minnesota Twins (so far).

You are spot on that Kepler is on the verge of a breakthrough. The Twins need to take the same approach they took with Buxton in 2017 - play Max every day and let him work it out and get the needed experience - including against left handed pitching.

Erv Santana: Beat father time for another season.

It's too early for this. It's too early to be looking at which of the hundreds of minor leaguers currently a part of the Minnesota Twins organization might take the field at Veterans Memorial Stadium in Cedar Rapids this summer. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/LewisWatkins17-600x400.jpg Tommy Watkins is moving up to AA Chattanooga to manage in 2018, but Royce Lewis could be back in Cedar Rapids to start the new season (Photo: SD Buhr) It's definitely too early to get excited about the possibility of seeing the most promising group of prospects in Cedar Rapids since, perhaps, the class of 2013 (which included Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios and more) in the first year of the Kernels/Twins affiliation era. Still, since it's been minus-10 degrees or so all day and I've had nothing else to do but watch a bunch of bowl games I generally don't care about at all, I'm going to share my excitement here anyway. Even as the 2017 was winding down, I found myself taking mental inventory of which members of the playoff-bound Kernels might be starting 2018 in Cedar Rapids, as well. Then I started looking at the talent that was on the field for Elizabethton's Appalachian League champion club and projecting a few that were likely to get their first exposure to full-season minor league ball with the Kernels in 2018 All of that informal mental note-making left me feeling pretty optimistic that the Twins would send a pretty competitive group to Cedar Rapids this spring. The Kernels have qualified for the Midwest League postseason in each of the five seasons that Cedar Rapids has been affiliated with the Twins and it was fine to feel pretty good about that streak continuing in 2018. But then it happened. A box arrived in the mail over this past weekend and inside was the 2018 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook.(Click here to get your copy.) I should have just glanced through it to make sure my name was spelled correctly everywhere I was given a photo credit, then set it aside for a few weeks until we were at least getting closer to the date when pitchers and catchers report for spring training in Florida (which is the date I unofficially consider the baseball season to begin each year). But knowing how much work the authors - Seth Stohs, Cody Christie and Tom Froemming - put into writing the Handbook and how packed with great content about every Twins minor league affiliate and literally every minor league player currently under contract to the Twins, well, just giving the book a glance through was something I couldn't limit myself to. So I started reading. The authors have some great articles in there, reflecting not only their knowledge of the Twins organization, but their writing skills, as well. I probably should have just read those feature articles and, perhaps, about their selections for Twins Minor League Hitter, Starting Pitcher and Relief Pitcher of the Year Awards. (All three are Kernels alums, by the way.) But that wasn't enough. Not when we're in the middle of a several-day stretch of sub-zero temperatures. I give myself some credit, though. I didn't read EVERY one of the player features in their entirety. It's far too early in the year to do that. No, I only read the features of those players that the authors suggested have some chance of playing ball for the Kernels in 2018. I think there were about 60 of them. That may seem like a lot, given teams are limited to a 25-man roster, but it's really only a little bit more than the 50 or so that you might typically see come through any MWL roster in any given season. Still, not all of them will wear Kernels uniforms this season. They mentioned 28, I think, that have played for the Kernels already that may return. That would be unusual. Some of those will start the season with a promotion to Ft. Myers, some could be injured or traded during spring training and some, unfortunately, could be released by the Twins before the season starts. That's just the harsh reality of professional baseball. But many of the players who WILL be coming to Cedar Rapids, either to start the season or as replacements during the course of the summer, have some very impressive backgrounds and credentials. The Kernels could feature not one, but two first-round draft choices. Shortstop Royce Lewis, who was the first overall pick of the 2017 MLB amateur draft, spent most of the last month of the 2017 season with the Kernels and likely will start the 2018 season in Cedar Rapids as well. He could well be joined by the Twins' 2016 first round pick, outfielder Alex Kirilloff, who had been expected to spend time with the Kernels last year, but missed the entire 2017 season following elbow surgery. Of course, both Lewis and Kirilloff got big signing bonuses as top draft picks, but they aren't likely to be the only million+ dollar bonus babies to put on Kernels uniforms in 2018. While Lewis is likely to see a mid-season promotion if his play develops as we'd expect it to, the Twins have another millionaire shortstop ready to step into his shoes - and position - with the Kernels. Wander Javier got $4 million to sign as an International Free Agent in 2015. A couple of teenaged pitchers could eventually find their ways to Cedar Rapids, though are perhaps less likely to start the season there. The Twins' 2017 second and third round draft picks, Blayne Enlow and Landon Leach, each got bonuses in excess of a million dollars to sign with the Twins, rather than play college ball. While he didn't get it from the Twins, catcher David Banuelos also got a million dollars to sign with the Mariners as their 2017 third round pick. He was acquired by the Twins in December. If Banuelos is assigned to Cedar Rapids, the Kernels could potentially have quite an impressive 1-2 punch behind the plate, since it would not be surprising to see Ben Rortvedt (who signed for $900,000 as the Twins' 2nd round pick in 2016) also return to start the season. In addition to Rortvedt, seven additional likely (or at least potential) 2018 Kernels pulled down signing bonuses of between $400,000 and $900,000, Those include some pretty heralded prospects such as outfielder Akil Baddoo and infielder Jose Miranda, both of which were "Compensation B" round (between 2nd and 3rd rounds) selections by the Twins in 2016. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Rortvedt2017d-600x400.jpg Twins 2nd round draft pick in 2016 Ben Rortvedt could well begin 2018 behind the plate for Cedar Rapids. (Photo: SD Buhr) Of course, signing bonuses aren't what matter the most once these guys get on the field. No matter what you got paid, what matters is what you do between the lines when you get a chance. Still, when you're looking at young players with limited professional experience to base judgements on, bonus money and draft position are simple means of projecting the level of talent any particular roster might consist of. In addition to those already listed, the 2018 Kernels roster could include, at some point: Two 4th round picks (pitcher Charlie Barnes - 2017, and third baseman/outfielder Trey Cabbage - 2015, both of whom spent time with the Kernels in 2017) and a 5th rounder (third baseman Andrew Bechtold). Six-figure International Free Agent signees like pitcher Jose Martinez ($340K in 2013) and catcher Robert Molina ($300K in 2013) Nine additional players drafted by the Twins in the top 10 rounds of drafts between 2014 and 2017, That is a lot of potential. And it doesn't even include Edwar Colina, who was the Appalachian League Pitcher of the Year last season. Are you beginning to see why I'm getting excited for the season to start already? I mean, if you're Toby Gardenhire, the recently announced new manager for the Kernels, you have to feel pretty good about the talent level that you're going to have to work with in your first year as a manager in professional baseball, don't you? Of course, the fun thing is that, even with all of these "prospects" on their way to Cedar Rapids, we know that there will be several guys not found on anyone's "prospect lists" that will grab hold of their opportunity to play baseball for a few dollars and show everyone they can play the game every bit as well as the guys getting all the attention... and money. It happens every season and it will happen this year, too. Cedar Rapids hasn't won a Midwest League title since Bengie Molina caught 45 games for the 1994 Kernels. No, that's not as long as the drought the Twins have endured since their 1991 World Series championship, but it's long enough. So pardon me if I get spend a few of these cold January days daring to get excited about Kernels baseball in 2018. If that's wrong, just blame Seth, Cody and Tom. That's what I usually do. (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.)

Thanks. Encouraging article. I would bet on Kepler will take a step forward. His BABIP will be better. He will improve against lefties though increased opportunities will be a drag on his overall numbers. I think we will see more power against right handed pitching.

Vargas runs up the count. His most common at bat has a 2-2 count, with 1-2 and 3-2 being next up. This is good. He needs to hit better when at 0-2, 1-2, 2-2 however. With any other count he is Dangerous with a capital D. More experience should fix that.

Q: What Happens if the Twins Can't Sign Yu Darvish? A: The sun will no longer rise.

Nothing about #metoo takes away confidentiality. She spoke in confidence with those she trusted.If you mean you would have preferred the matter be handled internally--well, that's been modus operandi for decades, and yet we obviously still have a systemic problem with sexual harassment/assault. These aren't just a few bad apples; the problem is cultural, social, structural, and it is exacerbated by those who wish to keep this kind of information from public view.

Eddie Rosario: figure out when to either hit the cutoff man or just throw to second to keep the runner from advancing. Then go to the All-Star game.

Front Office: sign at least one pitcher that slots in front of Santana.

i think we are in the midst of a societal change and I hope the Twins and MLB come out right away on the progressive side of the issue. Historically that has not been the case with the MLB, but if I voice my opinion and my spend and others do to, we can help persuade the powers that be to look at things that I believe to be universal. All people should be treated with respect. All people should have agency over their bodies, minds, and beliefs. All people should stand up and protect these rights for themselves and for others.

A question at the end of this exercise will be what is Mauer's value? At this point it seems obvious he will be the big name left off the list. With Buxton, Rosario, Lewis, Berrios, and Sano the list seems complete, but what about Rooker?

Trevor May Resolution: Get healthy enough, stay healthy enough, and pitch effectively enough to get 140 innings as a starter or 50 appearances in the pen.

Kennys Vargas Resolution: Treat every plate appearance as though trying out for the team No more wasted at-bats. No more falling behind 0-2 on weak breaking stuff out of the zone. If his last at-bat in a Twins uniform occurs this season, make sure that the video of it shows it was a professional one.

Hero worship is for the young and naive. The older I get the less I believe in heroes, especially among athletes and celebrities. And I have never looked at modern politicians as heroes. Call it experience. The sooner you realize that they're just humans with the same flaws as everyone else the better off you'll be.

Eddie Rosario has always been a polarizing player for me. In his first extended stint with the Twins in 2015, he showed flashes of a really exciting all-round game. He was a good base runner (4.7 runs above average), a solid defender (2.2 runs above average), and clobbered 13 home runs in his age 23 season. Rosario had excelled throughout five minor league destinations, and was noted for having an exceptionally quick bat and hands. There were a few major problems. Rosario struck out a lot (25% in 2015, compared to a league average 21%) and he rarely walked. Like, ever. In 2015 Rosario walked just 15 times in 474 plate appearances, good for a BB% of just 3.2%, well below the league average of 8.1%. Taken together, Rosario’s strikeouts and inability to take a walk amounted to cripplingly poor plate discipline.In 2016, some of the aspects of Rosario’s game which made him exciting disappeared. His base running regressed marginally in 2016, and majorly in 2017. His defense went from good in 2015, to acceptable in 2016, to pretty bad in 2017 (-6.2 runs above average), a dip not often discussed in the Twins heralded 'Nothing falls but raindrops’ outfield, which should be renamed to reflect the fact that anyone not named Byron Buxton is actually a poor to average defensive outfielder. Rosario’s regression and streaky hitting were so infuriating that it led to discussion about whether he would be the odd man out in the Twins up-and-coming outfield moving forwards, with Buxton spectacular, Kepler solid, and Zack Granite pushing for playing time with an impressive season at Rochester. Throughout his first two seasons, Rosario had shown little progress in his plate discipline, leading folks to voice the possibility that he had hit his ceiling. Enter James Rowson. If Pat Shurmur is the MVP of the Vikings this season, Rowson deserves the same plaudits for his work with Buxton, Polanco and Rosario in 2017. In researching Rowson, two things seem to stand out about his approach with the young core of Twins hitters. First, he wants players to have a high comfort level in taking ownership of their own swings. Second, he’s keenly aware of the strengths and weaknesses of his hitters and publicly pushes those buttons. After a game against the White Sox, Rowson named Rosario the player of the game, despite going 0-4, crediting him for helping teammates see more pitches from Jose Quintana which eventually allowed them to force him from the game. Rosario’s numbers from 2017 are a testament to Rowson’s work. He increased his BB% to just under 6%, taking 23 more walks than he did in 2016. Rosario’s OBP jumped almost 30 points, despite a 26 point decrease in his BaBIP from 2016 to 2017. The main cause for this increased ability to get on base? Rosario was significantly more selective with his swings in 2017. He dropped his O-Swing % (the percentage of time he swings at pitches outside the strike zone) from 42% to 37%. This decreased his overall SwStr% around 5% and led to a significantly increased Contact% (percentage of the time a hitter makes contact when swinging at all pitches). Overall, Rosario wasn’t swinging at significantly fewer pitches. He's swinging at significantly more hittable ones, leading to a spike in home runs, walks and isolated power. Entering his final pre-arbitration year in 2018, Rosario will need to keep his improved offensive output going to offset other diminishing skill sets. If Rosario can continue to build upon his improved plate discipline in 2018, he could finish the season as one of the more offensively productive outfielders in the American league. Click here to view the article

Max Kepler would be the most exciting young player on a lot of other teams, but in terms of up and coming Twins, he was somewhat left behind in 2017. It was a great bounce-back season for the team, but for the most part Kepler stayed stagnant. What’s been holding him back?Kepler passes the eye test, but take a glance at the numbers and you see a guy with an OPS+ of just 95. So what’s been missing? Digging deep into the numbers is the only way I have of trying to find answers, so here we go ... Low BABIP Over the 2016 and ‘17 seasons, Kepler had just a .269 batting average on balls in play. That’s seriously suppressed his offensive output. It’s the ninth-worst BABIP among 131 qualified hitters over that stretch. The FanGraphs glossary entry on BABIP is a great resource, and points out two things that would suggest there are reasons to be optimistic about Max turning things around. The average BABIP for hitters is around .300, and you need about 800 balls in play before a hitter’s BABIP stabilizes. Max is approaching that mark, but according to Baseball Savant he’s put 668 balls in play as a big leaguer. A lot of people associate a a low BABIP with bad luck, but I’m not one to automatically make that assumption. There can be concrete reasons behind why a player struggles to post a respectable BABIP. For example, anyone who consistently makes weak contact or doesn’t run well. But does that describe Max? Exit Velocity and Sprint Speed In that same two-year stretch, Kepler had an average exit velocity of 88.7 mph. That’s solid, ranking 121st out of a sample of 355 hitters (top 34.1 percent). So it's not like he's just making a bunch of weak contact. Kepler spent a lot of his time in the minors in center field, but is he really that athletic? Statcast’s sprint speed data would certainly suggest so. Kepler had an average sprint speed of 28.2 mph in 2017, which ranks 63rd among the 333 players who had a minimum of 25 opportunities to be tracked for that metric (top 18.9 percent). If Kepler is consistently hitting the ball hard and runs well, then what’s with that alarming BABIP? Maybe it really is just bad luck, or … Launch Angle Over the 2016 and ‘17 seasons, Kepler’s average launch angle was just 10.7 degrees. That ranked 201st out of the 335 hitters who had a minimum of 250 balls in play (in the bottom 40 percent). The good news is that rate has been on the rise. In 2016, Kepler’s average launch angle of 8.3 degrees was worse than 78.2 percent of hitters. He jumped up to 12.7 degrees last season, which only trailed 43 percent of hitters. Basically, he went from terribly below average to slightly above average in that metric. Despite that improvement, Kepler’s overall numbers stayed pretty much the same. What gives? I do think Max may have been a bit unlucky in 2017, but one thing that didn’t help him was an infield fly ball rate that jumped from eight percent to 11.5. What About Those Platoon Issues? There’s no denying Kepler’s performance against lefties is a concern. Over his career with the Twins, he’s hit just .176/.242/.279 (.520) against port-siders. Something to keep in mind is he’s only had 271 plate appearances against southpaws. In his last full minor league season, Max hit .319/.390/.473 (.863) against lefties. Yes, hitting Southern League pitching is a whole lot different than major league pitching, but it's still pretty early to cast a final judgement on his ability to hit same-sided pitching. It’s easy to forget that 2017 was only Kepler’s age 24 season. Things could click any day now. He’s still trying to figure things out and find some consistency. Here’s a look at his OPS by month in 2017: Download attachment: KeplerGraph.png Put it all together, and I see a guy who’s on the verge of a breakout. What do you think? Am I just seeing something I hope is there? Or is a Max Kepler breakout inevitable? It wasn't only two seasons ago when Max Kepler was featured on the cover of the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook. To read more about players like Kepler still in the Twins farm system, pick up a copy of the 2018 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook. Click here to view the article

Entering the 2018 Major League Baseball season the Minnesota Twins greatest need is starting pitching. Obviously, that is a similar narrative for many teams across the sport, but there's little denying that things line up for the hometown team to make a big splash in the starting rotation. While Jose Berrios and Ervin Santana are locks among the five this year, Paul Molitor will have to quickly find out what Kyle Gibson he has in 2018. The former 1st round (22nd overall) pick by Minnesota in 2009 has been the focus of many stories wondering if it will ever all come together. Making his big league debut at the age of 25 back in 2013, Gibson now embarks on his 6th MLB season, and will be doing so at the age of 30. He's yet to pitch more than 195 innings in a season, and his career 4.70 ERA speaks of mediocrity in the truest sense of the word. A pitch-to-contact type, Gibson's career 6.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 doesn't leave much to get hyped about, simply showing a level of predictability. Rewind back to mid-2017 however, and Gibson appeared to buck his own narrative. Despite looking like a non-tender candidate for the early part of the year, the former Mizzou Tiger landed a 2018 arbitration deal that will come in somewhere around $5 million. Now the question is, how did he get there and will it continue? A year ago, Gibson's first 17 starts for the Twins added up to a 6.29 ERA and a .920 OPS. He was sent down to Triple-A, and was dealt a hard dose of reality. After posting a 5.07 ERA in 2016, the 3.84 ERA from 2015 looked like a distant memory. Then, in a get-right opportunity, Gibson turned things around against the hapless Detroit Tigers on July 22nd. Twirling 7.1 IP of three-run ball, it was the first time since September 13, 2016 that he pitched at least seven innings. From that point on, a period of 12 starts, Gibson owned a 3.57 ERA and allowed opponents to tally just a .699 OPS. The change was drastic, and the sample size was indicative of it being sustainable. Going forward though, can he replicate what drove that success? First and foremost, Gibson missed significantly more bats. In his first 17 starts from 2017, Gibson generated strikeouts just 14.1% of the time, while walking 10.4% of batters he faced. Those numbers are a far cry from the 22.1% strikeout rate, and 6.2% walk rate posted in the final 12 times on the mound. By getting more batters out on his own, he also increased his strand rate from 68.1% to 79.2%. Virtually all of Gibson's balls put in play remained comparable by the percentages. He didn't have a drastic change in line drive, ground ball, or fly ball rates. He was able to shave just about 5% off of his HR/FB rate however. The dip in balls leaving the park could potentially be attributed to a slight swing (roughly 4%) of outcomes taken away from hard contact, and added to soft contact. What that also suggests however, is that we dive into the repertoire. In looking at Gibson's offerings, I think there's a few takeaways to consider. First and foremost, there was a drastic change in regards to how Kyle attacked the strikezone. After predominantly working in the lower half of the zone through his bad stretch, Gibson attacked higher in the zone and on the corners down the stretch. Not being a high velocity pitcher (averaging 92.7 mph on his fastball) forcing the ball up in the zone can help to get it on hitters quicker. Obviously the swing plane changes based upon pitch location, and the added advantage of going up and in suggests Gibson felt more comfortable challenging opposing hitters. Secondly, there was one pitch that jumped off the page during his success. After using his slider just 14% of the time through his first 1,495 pitches in 2017, the usage jumped over 20% through his final 1,115 pitches on the season. The numbers didn't equate to the career high 22.1% of sliders he threw a year ago (in fact he was at just 17.8% on the season), but it was clearly an offering he felt comfortable going back to. Notably, the slider also became somewhat of an out pitch. Looking at Gibson's pitch types by count courtesy of Baseball Savant, favorable counts saw a significant amount of the sweeping pitch. Despite being more of an afterthought early in the year, the slider generated 5% swinging strikes in the second half (compared to 3% in the first). Finally, the slight changes allowed Gibson to see a difference in the results of batted balls against him. Launch angle for opposing hitters decreased, while barreled balls fell off a cliff. Gibson was generating slightly more weak contact, and the quality of balls being put into the field of play as a whole had sunk. Likely an indicator of the process as a whole, as opposed to any one single scenario, Gibson was seeing a payoff for his new tactics. As a whole, it's hard to suggest that 2018 will see a full season of Gibson at his best. While the positive signs were shown down the stretch, none of the changes were revolutionary, and the differences were rather minor in the grand scheme of things. With a new pitching coach in Garvin Alston, maybe Gibson will find even more success with his slider than before. What we don't know, is whether the slight differences translate to sustainability for a 30 year old over the course of 30-plus starts. I do think that there's enough reason to believe Gibson can be more of his 2015 self than he's been each of the past two seasons however, and that would give Minnesota a quality back end option. Even before adding another high-level arm into the fold, the Twins will have a stable of options to round out the rotation. With youth as a disadvantage, pitchers like Gibson and Phil Hughes will have to put their best foot forward on a nightly basis to set themselves apart. I'm not going to suggest Gibson will live up to his pre-debut hype, but serviceable seems to be a fair bet in 2018. For more from Off The Baggy (and to see the graphical depictions of this article) click here. Follow @tlschwerz

This week’s Almanac features the birthdates of Minnesotan major leaguers Red Hardy, Bob Gebhard, Michael Restovich, and Neil Wagner, and Twins all-time greats Earl Battey and Rick Aguilera. It was also this week in history that the Twins hired a new manager, Carl Pohlad passed away, and Bert Blyleven and Paul Molitor received two very memorable phone calls. December 31 Happy 56th Birthday, Rick Aguilera It’s the birthday of longtime Twins closer Rick Aguilera, born in San Gabriel, CA in 1961. Aggie saved 254 games for the Twins between 1989 and ’99, second only to Joe Nathan‘s 260. He saved 42 regular season games for the 1991 World Series Champion Twins. Aggie, who hit three home runs with the Mets, pinch-hit in the 12th inning of Game 3 of the World Series, becoming the first pitcher to do so since Don Drysdale pinch-hit for Sandy Koufax vs. Jim Kaat in Game 2 of the '65 Series. The Twins acquired Aguilera on July 31, 1989 in what was perhaps the greatest trade in team history. The Twins sent ’87 World Series MVP and ’88 Cy Young winner Frank Viola to the Mets for David West, Aggie, Kevin Tapani, Tim Drummond, and Jack Savage (as a player to be named later on October 16). I was watching the Twins vs. Red Sox game at my grandparents' trailer near Cohasset on July 6, 1995 when Aggie was traded mid-game to Boston for pitching prospect Frankie Rodriguez and a player to be named later. Aggie re-signed with the Twins following the season. His Twins career ended for good on May 21, 1999 when he was traded along with Scott Downs to the Chicago Cubs for Kyle Lohse and Jason Ryan. Aguilera was announced as the 19th member of the Twins Hall of Fame on January 25, 2008, and inducted the following June 21st before a 4-1 loss to Houston. Ironically, starting pitcher Glen Perkins took the loss. Perk, of course, would become a closer himself, finishing his career with 120 saves, third in Twins history behind Aguilera and Nathan. Fun Fact: Aguilera, former Twins infielder Tim Teufel, and their Mets teammates Bobby Ojeda and Ron Darling were arrested after an altercation with off-duty cops working security at a Houston bar on July 19, 1986. The Mets went on to defeat the Astros in the NLCS that fall, and then beat Bill Buckner and the Red Sox in the infamous seven-game World Series. January 1 Happy 34th Birthday, Neil Wagner It's the birthday of 2002 Eden Prairie High School graduate Neil Wagner, born in Minneapolis in 1984. Wagner pitched for North Dakota State for three seasons before signing with Cleveland in 2005. He made his major league debut pitching for the Oakland Athletics against Cleveland on August 30, 2011. He pitched five innings over six games with the Athletics that season. He made it back to the majors with the Toronto Blue Jays, getting into 36 games in 2013, and 10 in 2014. Wagner pitched three scoreless innings over four appearances against the Twins, holding them to 1-for-11 (.091). Chris Colabello hit a seventh-inning double for the Twins' only hit off Wagner in the second game of a doubleheader at Target Field on April 14, 2014. The next inning, Blue Jays pitchers combined to give up six runs on EIGHT walks and just one hit. January 3 Happy 75th Birthday, Bob Gebhard It’s the birthday of former Twins pitcher and front office exec. Bob Gebhard, born in Lamberton, Minnesota in 1943. The Twins drafted Gebhard out of the University of Iowa in the 44th round of the very first amateur draft in 1965. That summer he went 11-2 with a 1.91 ERA for the St. Cloud Rox. Gebhard pitched professionally for 11 years, including 30 relief appearances for the ’70-’71 Twins, and two innings with the ‘74 Expos. He was a player/coach with the Expos’ Triple-A club in ‘74 and ’75, Minor League Field Director and pitching coach from ’76-’81, part of the major league coaching staff in ’82, and Director of Minor League Operations through 1986. Andy MacPhail brought Gebhard home to Minnesota in 1987, hiring him as Director of Major League Personnel. Here’s a fun remembrance MacPhail shared of Gebhard’s first season back in Minnesota: “Literally we had just won the world championship and Bob Gebhard turns to me and goes ‘Damn, Andy, we won this thing. We were just trying to get organized!'” He assumed the title of Vice President of Player Personnel in ‘88. Following the 1991 World Series, Gebhard became General Manager of the expansion Colorado Rockies, who began play in 1993. He hired ’87 Twins World Series hero Don Baylor as manager, signed first baseman Andres Galarraga the day before the ’92 Expansion Draft, and pulled off a trade for slugger Dante Bichette immediately following the draft. He signed Larry Walker in the spring of ’95, and that year, just the team’s third in existence, the Rockies won the NL West. The following season the Rockies won the NL’s first-ever Wild Card spot. Gebhard resigned from the Rockies on August 20, 1999 amid speculation that he was about to be fired. Gebhard served in the St. Louis Cardinals front office from 2000-2004, and as Vice President, Special Assistant to the General Manager of the Diamondbacks from 2005-2016. Gebhard received the Roland Hemond Award from the Society of American Baseball Research (SABR) in 2012 in recognition of his contributions to the community of professional baseball scouts. Gebhard makes his home in Centennial, Colorado. January 3 Happy 39th Birthday, Michael Restovich It’s the birthday of former major league outfielder Michael Restovich, born in Rochester, MN in 1979. Restovich was named Minnesota High School Baseball Player of the Year in 1997, his senior season at Rochester Mayo. That June he was selected by the Twins in the second round of the amateur draft. The Twins’ first-round draft choice that year was a Virginia high schooler named Michael Cuddyer. Restovich hit .369 in 76 games between the Rookie League Elizabethton Twins and Class-A Fort Wayne Wizards in 1998. In 1999 he hit .312 with 19 HR and 107 RBI for the Class-A Quad City River Bandits. He made his major league debut on September 18, 2002. Restovich’s first major league hit was a ninth-inning pinch-hit home run in a 14-4 Twins loss at Comiskey Park on September 21. Future-Twins closer Jon Rauch started the game and earned the victory for Chicago despite giving up lead-off home runs to David Ortiz and Corey Koskie in the second and fourth innings. Koskie hit a second lead-off homer in the sixth off of reliever Mike Porzio. Brad Radke had an uncharacteristically bad day, allowing six earned runs on nine hits in just three innings. Restovich went on to play parts of six major league seasons with the Twins ('02-'04), Rockies ('05), Pirates ('05), Cubs ('06), and Nationals ('07). He made 297 plate appearances over 152 games, hitting .239 with 28 walks, six home runs, and 21 RBI. January 4, 2002 Gardenhire Named Manager The Twins announce former third base coach Ron Gardenhire as the 12th manager in team history, succeeding Tom Kelly, who, after the team’s first winning season in nine years, announced his retirement on October 12, 2001. TK was the longest tenured manager or head coach in all of professional sports at the time of his retirement. The Twins won the AL Central in each of Gardy’s first three seasons, and in six of his first nine. They only advanced past the divisional round, however, in Gardy’s first season of 2002. After five runner-up finishes, he was named AL Manager of the Year in 2010. He managed the Twins for 13 seasons before being fired on September 29, 2014, having amassed 1,068 wins, just 72 shy of TK’s team record of 1,140. After serving as Arizona Diamondbacks bench coach in 2017, Gardy will manage the dumb Detroit Tigers in 2018. January 5, 1935 Birthdate of Earl Battey It’s the birthdate of five-time All-Star, and three-time Gold Glove catcher Earl Battey, born in Los Angeles in 1935 (83 years ago). Battey saw limited playing time with the Chicago White Sox from 1955-’59. Then, on April 4, 1960, the White Sox traded Battey and Don Mincher to the Washington Senators for 1957 AL home run leader Roy Sievers. Battey broke out that season, winning his first of three consecutive Gold Glove Awards, and even garnering some AL MVP votes. Battey scored the first walk-off run in Twins history on April 22, 1961, scoring on a Zoilo Versalles sac fly. He retired after the ‘67 season having caught 831 games in a Twins uniform. That stood as the club record until Joe Mauer surpassed him on August 27, 2012. In 1980 Battey enrolled at Bethune-Cookman University in Daytona Beach, FL, graduating summa cum laude in just 2½ years. After graduation he became a high school teacher and baseball coach in Ocala, FL. Earl Battey passed away on November 15, 2003. He was just 68 years old. He was inducted as the 13th member of the Twins Hall of Fame in 2004. January 5, 2009 Pohlad Passes Away Longtime Twins owner Carl Pohlad passes away at home in Edina. He was 93 years old. Pohlad grew up dirt-poor in West Des Moines, Iowa. After high school he played football at Compton Junior College in southern California. The entertainer Bing Crosby saw Pohlad play and recruited him to his alma mater, Gonzaga University in Spokane, WA. While in school, Pohlad earned a little extra money boxing in clubs along the West Coast. He dropped out of school his senior year to focus on his lucrative side job of selling repossessed cars. Pohlad was drafted into the Army in 1942 and served as an infantryman man during World War II in France, Germany and Austria. He was wounded in battle and awarded two Bronze Stars, an Oak Leaf Cluster, and three Purple Hearts. After the war Pohlad partnered with his brother-in-law, taking control of Marquette Bank in Minneapolis in 1949, just three years out of the Army. Pohlad took sole control of the bank after his brother-in-law’s death several years later. He branched out from there, establishing a web of banking, bottling, real estate and other companies. In 1984 the billionaire financier bought the Twins from original owner Calvin Griffith for a cool $38 million, almost certainly preventing the team from leaving Minnesota. Ever the shrewd businessman, Pohlad was a frugal owner, always looking to maximize value. Rather than spending big money on acquiring -- or even retaining -- marquee talent, Pohlad emphasized building a team from the ground up through a farm system that is still regarded as one of the best in the game. His prudent approach paid dividends with World Series championships in 1987 and 1991. You can say a lot about Carl Pohlad. Here’s one thing: Carl Pohlad, the son of a dirt-poor Slovak immigrant who grew up to be the second wealthiest man in Minnesota, never retired. January 5, 2011 Blyleven Elected to Hall of Fame On his 14th ballot, Twins all-time strikeout leader (2,035) Bert Blyleven is elected to the Hall of Fame with the support of 79.7% of voters. He was inducted on July 24 alongside Roberto Alomar and 27-year GM Pat Gillick. The Twins selected the Dutch-born, SoCal-raised Blyleven out of high school in the third round of the '69 draft. Bert made his major league debut on June 2, 1970 at age 19. He would pitch for 22 seasons, 11 in Minnesota (‘70-’76, ‘85-’88), amassing 149 wins in a Twins uniform, second only to Jim Kaat’s 190 (including one as a Senator). In addition to the ’87 Twins, Bert was a member of the 1979 World Series Champion Pirates. He was an All-Star in 1973 and '85. Bert pitched three one-hitters with the Twins, two in 1973 and another in 1974 (only one of those, incidentally, was a shutout). He pitched a no-hitter in his final game as a Texas Ranger on September 22, 1977. His 3,701 career strikeouts rank fifth in major league history behind Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, and Steve Carlton. Blyleven was inducted into the Twins Hall of Fame on June 1, 2002, and his number 28 was retired on July 16, 2011. January 6, 1923 Birthdate of Red Hardy It’s the birth date of Minneapolis South High School graduate Red Hardy, born in Marmarth, ND in 1923 (95 years ago). He began his professional career in 1942 with Eau Claire of the Class C Northern League before enlisting in the US Navy. After pilot training at Camp Croft in South Carolina, he saw active duty during World War II. After receiving his discharge, Hardy enrolled at the University of St. Thomas for whom he pitched in the spring of ‘46, once losing a 13-inning complete game 3-2 to the University of Minnesota. After the college season, he resumed his pro career briefly with the Minneapolis Millers, and then the St. Cloud Rox, for whom he went 7-0 with a 1.70 ERA. Hardy eventually made it to the majors in 1951, pitching 1 1/3 innings over two appearances with the New York Giants. He passed away on August 15, 2003 at age 80. For a more thorough picture, read Terry Bohn’s SABR BioProject article on Red Hardy. January 6, 2004 Molitor Elected to Hall of Fame 1974 Cretin High School grad and Golden Gophers all-time great Paul Molitor is elected to the Hall of Fame alongside legendary closer Dennis Eckersley, both on their first ballots. Molitor appeared on 85.2% of ballots, meaning a staggering 75 members of the BBWAA were complete ignoramuses. The two-time All-American Molitor was selected by the Milwaukee Brewers with the third overall pick in the 1977 draft behind Harold Baines and Bill Gullickson, who, incidentally, was born in Marshall, MN, but attended high school in Joliet, IL. In 1978 Molitor was runner-up to Detroit’s Lou Whitaker for American League Rookie of the Year. Molitor set a World Series record with five hits in Game 1 of the ‘82 Series, which the St. Louis Cardinals won in seven games. The Cards’ Albert Pujols tied that record, going 5-for-6 with six RBI, three home runs, and four runs scored in Game 3 of the 2011 World Series. Molitor stole second, third, and home consecutively in the first inning vs. Oakland on July 26, 1987. Forty-one players have pulled that off a total of 51 times in MLB history, 12 since 1940. The feat was accomplished four times in the '80s, twice in the '90s, once in the '00s, and, most recently, by Dee Gordon in 2011 and Wil Myers in 2017. The Twins’ Rod Carew did so on May 18, 1969. Molitor hit for the cycle vs. the Twins at the Metrodome on May 15, 1991, tripling on Kevin Tapani’s first pitch of the game, and homering off Tapani to complete the cycle. Despite the 4-2 loss to Milwaukee, the Twins would salvage their ‘91 season. In total he played 15 seasons for Milwaukee before signing with the Toronto Blue Jays following the ‘92 season. In ‘93, at age 37, Molitor had his first 100-RBI season, collecting 111. He was the Most Valuable Player of the 1993 World Series, hitting .500 (12-for-24) with two home runs and 10 runs scored, tying the record set by Reggie Jackson in 1977. Molitor signed with the Twins for the 1996 season, when, at age 39, he hit .341, drove in 113 runs, and led the league with a career-high 225 hits. He tied Rod Carew and Tim Teufel’s team record with five runs scored on April 24, 1996 (later matched by Luis Rivas on June 4, 2002). Molitor tripled for his 3,000th hit on September 16, 1996, exactly three years to the date after 1969 St. Paul Central grad Dave Winfield collected his 3,000th off Molitor’s Hall of Fame classmate Dennis Eckersley. The 40-year-old DH went 3-for-4 with two home runs, a double, three RBI, and three runs scored on July 25, 1997. On September 3-4, now 41 years old, he homered in back-to-back games. He stole his 500th base on August 8, 1998, joining Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner, Eddie Collins, Lou Brock, and Rickey Henderson in the 3,000 Hit/500 Stolen Base Club. Ichiro joined the club in 2016. Molly retired following the ‘98 season. Molitor was introduced as the 13th manager in Twins history on November 4, 2014. On November 14, 2017, just one year removed from the worst season in club history, Molitor became just the second Hall of Fame player to be named Manager of the Year. Baltimore’s Frank Robinson received the award in 1989. Molitor was the second of three St. Paul natives elected to the Hall of Fame. 1969 St. Paul Central grad Dave Winfield was inducted in 2001 alongside Kirby Puckett. 1973 Highland Park grad Jack Morris will be inducted this coming July. Fun Fact: Paul Molitor went 33-for-103 (.320) vs. Jack Morris, including a home run on September 20, 1987. Keep in touch with @TwinsAlmanac on Twitter & Facebook. Click here to view the article

After running through our rankings for Nos. 11-15 and Nos. 16-20 last week, it's time to break into the Top 10 most valuable assets for the Minnesota Twins. Looking beyond performance to account for age, contract, and future impact, the idea is to determine which players will be most vital to the team's ongoing success (or, most useful as trade chips). Read on past the fold to find out who I picked for spots six through 10, and why.10. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP (23) He doesn't have the same spellbinding upside as Fernando Romero, but Gonsalves ranks a few spots ahead of his fellow top pitching prospect because at this point he seems considerably more likely to reach his ceiling. The left-hander is coming off yet another fantastic season that saw him graduate to Triple-A just one month after his 23rd birthday. In five starts with Rochester, Gonsalves delivered three excellent outings and two clunkers, but this came on the heels of a brilliant 15-start stretch at Chattanooga (8-3, 2.68 ERA, 1.03 WHIP). While he lacks remarkable velocity or breaking stuff, the 6-foot-5 southpaw attacks the zone with a somewhat deceptive release and that's brought him success at pretty much every level. Most importantly, his strong 2017 campaign quieted shoulder concerns that caused him to get a late start to the season. 9. Ervin Santana, RHP (35) Gonsalves might be the future. Santana is the now. He's 35 and only under contract for one or two years, but Erv was easily the best performer on the 2017 staff and has generally been a godsend for the Twins rotation since joining up in July of 2015. Heading into the new season, he's the most reliable and trusted commodity on the staff, although his age, career workload (2,400 innings and counting), and seemingly unsustainable formula (4.02 FIP in 2016/17) cast some doubt on his continued high-end effectiveness. The Twins basically have Santana on a one-year deal for $13.5 million with a team option (automatically activated if he hits 200 innings in 2018). Any team would be beyond ecstatic to get him on such a contract if he were a free agent right now. 8. Brian Dozier, 2B (30) Over the past two seasons – according to the player valuation algorithm at FanGraphs – Dozier has been worth $47 million and $40 million, respectively. The Twins have gotten him for $9 million, total. He's under control for one more year, and still at a huge bargain ($9 million). In retrospect, that spring 2015 contract extension looks pretty damn good, even though it didn't buy out any free agency. The looming reality of FA limits Dozier's value as an asset, which is otherwise immense: top-tier slugging middle infielder, Gold Glove defender, clubhouse leader in every sense of the word. Minnesota might only have one year left with the reigning back-to-back Twins Daily MVP, but they're awfully glad to have that. 7. Max Kepler, OF (24) In 2016, Kepler burst onto the scene with 17 home runs and a .734 OPS as a 23-year-old rookie. That's quite the accomplishment. With his lean and athletic physique, the sky appeared to be the limit, given his transcendent success in Chattanooga the previous season. But in 2017, Kepler stagnated. He posted nearly identical numbers overall and took a step backward against southpaws, going from ugly to unsightly. But while his production didn't improve as we hoped, it was still perfectly solid. Now, he's heading into his third MLB season as a 25-year-old who has flashed glimpses of All-Star potential, while basically establishing his floor as an average MLB corner outfielder. The Twins control his rights through 2022. 6. Jorge Polanco, SS (24) An outsider would glance at Polanco's progression from 2016 to 2017 and assume his stock dropped, with his OPS falling by 30 points. But the real story is a lot more complicated than that. He reached his all-time low point as a pro at the end of July, with his slash line sagging egregiously to .213/.265/.305. He took a few days off for a mental break and returned on August 2nd with a double – his first extra-base hit in a full month. From there, Polanco took off, raking to the tune of .316/.377/.553 with 10 homers and 42 RBI the rest of the way. The amazing surge restored faith in his bat and then some. But perhaps even more importantly, Polanco showed himself to be a credible option at shortstop. His adequacy was very much in doubt following an erratic 2016 debut at the position, but in 2017 the 24-year-old was plenty serviceable, cutting down the mistakes while improving his range and occasionally making legitimately spectacular plays. We'll need to see him sustain both at the plate and in the field before fully buying into his transformation, but right now he looks like a capable shortstop who can bat third in a very good lineup, and that's a hell of a quality asset with four years of control remaining. RANKINGS THUS FAR 20. Alex Kirilloff, OF (20) 19. Trevor May, RHP (28) 18. Wander Javier, SS (18) 17. Jason Castro, C (30) 16. Tyler Duffey, RHP (27) 15. Taylor Rogers, LHP (27) 14. Adalberto Mejia, LHP (24) 13. Nick Gordon, SS (22) 12. Fernando Romero, RHP (23) 11. Trevor Hildenberger, RHP (27) 10. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP (23) 9. Ervin Santana, RHP (35) 8. Brian Dozier, 2B (30) 7. Max Kepler, OF (24) 6. Jorge Polanco, SS (24) Click here to view the article

The defensive regression is the part that worries me the most. In his first full year his throws and speed were really assets and he looked to be an above average OF. What happened? Can he only concentrate on one aspect of the game at a time?

Kepler seem to be working on pulling the ball and hitting for power last year. This year i hope he becomes more confident hitting the ball the other way. With time he should learn to lift the ball. So, he could continue to be a pull hitter and go the way of Kubel or he could go the way of Morneau and go the other way every now and then. He might just become a combo of both.

IT WAS ZACH DUKE... IT WAS ZACH DUKE... IT WAS ZACH DUKE.

I seriously hope a Kepler breakout is next on the to-do list. Assuming sustained performances from Rosie and Buck, if Kepler piles on, I'd consider placing money on them in Vegas as the best outfield in the league combining both offensive and defensive metrics.

Kepler’s stats look pretty comparable to Justin Morneau at the same age. I wouldn’t give up on him yet.

This is an issue that you address after the route to solve starting pitching this offseason. And more likely you kick the can down the road to the next offseason. He might ultimately come at a discount if the market is soft (like last year's trade market) but he is close enough to FA that he will want the upper end of any numbers discussed in this thread. I don't think he exceeds that in FA. The reason to push for an extension now is if he would be considered a MUST sign player that the team can't afford to lose. He isn't. The Twins have many options in the middle infield to reasonably replace him even if there is a falloff in overall ability. One thing that could change this would be trading multiple MI prospects (including non-prospect Polanco) for a pitcher like Archer. If that occurred then MI wouldn't be as strong and they might be able to tie up money in Dozier (Archer is cheap). But even then I probably keep spending on pitching (RP or SP). One thing that I have mentioned before is that I would MUCH rather pay Escobar elite utility player dollars in an extension (3/20-25M) than to give Dozier a 4 or 5 year contract at 15-20M/yr. Buying age 31-35 seasons at a premium makes me NERVOUS. He will get paid and he made the right choice (no option years) but it looks like a bad idea. Cano says hello though...

In an ideal world he could have used more time in AAA learning this against better competition than AA. This is a result of relying on prospects to fill MLB jobs. Granted he's had moderate success so far. I don't envy him learning something critical for his long term career at the highest level.

Doggone it, Trevor, people like you

It's common for young players to have to adjust to MLB-level lefties. But Kepler is off the charts on the bad side when it comes to his performance v. lefties. Being this bad is probably an aberration that can be corrected, but he needs a hell of a lot of practice. I'm guessing he isn't seeing the ball well if at all.

Awesome article Jamie! Great job!

My guess on the top 5 is: 1) Buxton 2) Berríos 3) Sanó 4) Lewis 5) Rosario I could also see Sanó and Lewis flopped. But I think the top two has to be Buxton and Berríos given the shortage of young, controllable top-of-the-rotation pitching in baseball right now.

Interesting to see what DOES happen to Mauer, where Sano ends up, and what the Twins do with Dozier, who suddenly has become an expensive commodity...would I pay him $60 million for a longterm deal at this point, or hope that Gordon/Polanco are suitable replacements. Is Rooker the answer at first base? See how fast he progresses, with Diaz on his heals. Kepler is interesting. He seems to be a very hard worker, but still lacks consistency (or maybe he is consistent). Buxton may be on the rise, and Rosario hs been a total surprise as the team hitting leader. Who is on tap to bring something different and unique to the outfield? The whole Jake Mauer thing was strange. Saw him as possibly a manager of the future. Would he have been better served to be an on-field coach with the Twins....having half the season at home in Minnesota, as well as the off-season? Is it the money you can make in car dealing compared to the time and energy you spend on baseball 24-hours-a-day? It does seem strange to think of Mauer NOT as Twin, but it may happen. I was thinking there would be more changes in the Twins front office, not just some position shuffling. But maybe next year.

Well, I suppose that's the question. Is he unable to find the strike zone at will without giving up some "stuff"? Or is he purposely nibbling, in the belief he'd get hammered if he came in with more strikes?

I agree on the placing of Gonsalves above Romero, while the latter has a potentially higher ceiling the odds of it happening are not the best. Hope it happens, but probably a better chance he ends up in the bullpen that an ace starter at this point. Mauer really doesn't have much value, not a bad player at this point, but pretty low on the food chain for first baseman and no team in the league would take him at $23M with his current production. Not trying to knock Mauer, I'm grateful for the career he's had and all, just the reality of a guy at the end of his career with a big contract.

Going by the criteria for this list Mauer isn’t here because at the tail end of his contract it is decidedly team unfriendly. It has no surplus value. Rooker would probably be in the 21-25 range I’d guess. I am curious to see where Nick places the top 5. At this point I’d probably put Buxton in the #1 spot and really want to see an extension for him and a couple other before the season starts. At this point I doubt Dozier entertains an extension that would make sense for the team so, sad to say, but if they haven’t put things together by the trade deadline he’s likely to be flipped…which doesn’t stop the Twins from bidding for him on the open market if it doesn’t seem like Gordon is ready.

Tough call between Gonsalves and Romero as far as asset value. Think I'd lean Romero though If Gonsalves' ceiling is a #3 or #4 starter, well... I guess another club could go to the free agent market and get that for a reasonable amount of money. Top end of the rotation guys are harder to find, even if Romero is not a sure thing.

Yes, I hope so. And most years, he'd have been mentioned as one of the top handful of prospects to possibly spend time with the Kernels. I probably should have. After getting to see Alex Robinson for much of 2017, we're spoiled when it comes to seeing near-100 mph fastballs. Graterol, from what I hear, could fill that need.

What does Miguel Sano's resolution look like? I am guessing much different than a week or so back.

So it's Jan 1st. About a week ago I noticed on the MLB channel that last year at that time over 1.2 Billion dollars had been spent in free agents and this year when I saw that show, before the Holland signing only about 500 million had been spent. I then just saw the 80's movie Trading Places and it occured to me that when Eddie Murphy's character was saying that he thought the prices of Pork Bellies was going to go down because the market is panicking out there, that that might be the case with this years free agents??? It might be possible to get a Cobb or a Lynn or even Darvish a little bit cheaper the longer no one signs them?? Think Kendrys Morales a few years back when he didn't get signed until like May or June?? I really don't think those guys want that, so they may be panicking a little out there. Especially because they may have already bought their kids that GI Joe doll with the Kung Fu grip, they may want to get something done so they can get something instead of waiting around too long?? Maybe, we will have to wait and see. I know it has been irritating me that I haven't seen much action with the Twins and a real pitcher this off season even though most of us think or know that is what they need, now I'm looking at it as this might even work out better the longer it drags out??

Sure Washington had slaves. You can only be a man of your times. If he had been an abolitionist during that era he probably never would have advanced to lead the Revolutionary army......country wasn’t ready at that time. And in my study of history his bravery and sacrifice was remarkable.

When my father returned to Boston Harbor, just a few days after the Japanese had surrendered, ending WWII, he said that the tugs and fire boats were shooting water into the air and blowing their horns...welcoming the American soldiers home from Europe. There were people cheering on the docks. He had served as a combat engineer in France, Belgium and Germany. He helped build a bridge across the Rhine River while being shelled. He and his buddies had defeated the Germans, but were on their way to the Pacific, to be a part of the invasion of Japan. Fortunately the Japanese had surrendered and the deadly invasion was not necessary. So instead of my dad's troopship continuing toward the Panama Canal and the uncertain future awaiting them in the Pacific, the destination of the soldiers on my father's troopship was changed to Boston Harbor. He finally got off the boat and after waiting for hours in line at a payphone, he called my mother. She was crying, he was crying...both were so glad he was back from the war. He said then the lights went out. She told him his only brother, my uncle, John Benbow, from Greensboro, a P-51 Mustang pilot, was dead, his Mustang having been shot down July 16, 1945. My father said that he and the returning GI's had been made to feel like heroes but that he realized that they were not heroes. My father said he realized that all the heroes were dead.

This was really enjoyable and educational, I’d love to see this as a regular feature. I clicked through and read the other almanac posts you’ve done and enjoyed them as well. Thanks

Count me as one that was also surprised and disappointed that they selected Lewis with the first pick. But ... after reading more about him, and factoring in the uncertainty of the pitching prospects in the top five, I think it was a good pick. Plus, the other picks the Twins made in the early rounds look like good ones too. Astute, canny, smart, or whatever you want to call it, I think it was an impressive draft. We all know the results are still years away, but I'm optimistic.

I think it’s possible to admire and acknowledge the talent without worshipping the person and/or supporting their status and/or financial gain. It’s easy to see someone so talented as a youngster, chasing his/hr dream and even reaching it and think, ‘Wow, I want to be like them!’ But I learned a long while ago to be careful with misplaced admiration, to not cloud the talent and achievement with the person they are. And even in admiring and acknowledging the talent, I’m careful to know that that’s the line, and it doesn’t mean I am supporting that person’s talent through the purchase of music, Jersey, books, concert/event tickets, etc. And a hero to me is someone who inspires me to be and do better, like my parents and my siblings.

I'd add Curtiss to that group and project that he'll be the best of them. And, Jake Reed is still around... There are definitely still some big bullpen arms out there.

This really emphasized how erratic our call ups were. No Gonsalves who was our best, Rosario from AA and then released. The process shows no clear organizational philosophy.

With Busenitz, Moya and Hildenberger I think we're on to something. Of the three only Busenitz is the conventional big armed bullpen guy but, hey, I like the variety. Could serve us well. Curtis has a chance too.