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    USAFChief

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Popular Content

Showing content with the highest reputation on 08/22/2017 in all areas

  1. I'm not terribly sure this supports any sense that SDI is a good defensive metric... ha!
    9 points
  2. If Gibson only goes four and Derek Falvey pitches the final five innings, I'll give Falvey credit for the win.
    6 points
  3. I imagine his routine appearances on ESPN would make Buxton a legitimate Gold Glove candidate, if not the favorite. I really want Mauer to win and think he deserves it. But we'll see.
    5 points
  4. I don't believe IP or pitch counts mean much. If a guy is strong and maintaining form, let him pitch. If he's fatigued to the point that it affects his form or mechanics in a way that is inviting injury, that's when you shut him down.
    4 points
  5. Made the trek to Cedar Rapids yesterday. I wanted to see Royce Lewis play and got lucky to see his first Midwest league homer! I thought he looked smooth in the field, no spectacular plays but showed nice soft hands and a strong arm. Looked very fundamentally sound, early in the game with a runner on first Beloit hit one past a diving third baseman and he hustled over and covered third. The runner beat the throw but Lewis was in the right place.
    4 points
  6. I think that the Twins should gather and analyze all data they have on Romero, including average velocity during games and throughout the season, give him a thorough physical exam and make an informed decision. Do I know what that decision should be? No without that data. Do I trust the (same old minor league & medical) Twins' staff to make the right decision? Not sure.
    3 points
  7. Defense has been one of the key aspects of Minnesota's turnaround in 2017. On their way to over 100 losses last season, there were plenty of defensive flaws. However, this year's version of the Twins has given more playing time to some younger, more athletic players while some veteran players have made strides in the right direction. How do the Twins stack up this season? How many players could be candidates for Gold Glove Awards?Defensive metrics have come a long way over the last decade. With organizations and other private companies tracking every batted ball, the amount of information available to fans is at an all-time high. The Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) has developed the SABR Defensive Index (SDI). According to SABR's website, the SDI "draws on and aggregates two types of existing defensive metrics: those derived from batted ball location-based data and those collected from play-by-play accounts." This rankings were through games played in the first half of the season. Catcher: Jason Castro SDI Ranking: 4.6 (2nd in the AL) While Castro hasn't completely lived up to his billing, he has been good behind the plate. Only Martin Maldoado of the Angels ranks higher than Castro. There's a chance that Castro could end up being a finalist for the Gold Glove but he is in a tight race with Sandy Leon and Yan Gomes all being within 0.6 SDI points. Last season, Castro compiled a negative SDI score so he has made some very strong strides this season. First Base: Joe Mauer SDI Ranking: 3.0 (2nd in the AL) Mauer has been known for his athletic ability since he was a multi-sport athlete in high school. When Mauer was forced to move out from behind the plate, many thought he would be able to develop into a very good defensive first baseman. This season might be the culmination of all of his hard work since switching positions. Only former Twin Danny Valencia ranks higher than Mauer. He has also accumulated almost double his SDI score from 2016. Center Field: Byron Buxton SDI Ranking: 12.7 (1st in the AL) Anyone who has watched the Twins this season knows how good Buxton has been on the defensive side of the ball. With his recent offensive turnaround, it's hard not to get excited about his bright future. Of all of the players in the AL, only Mookie Betts has compiled a higher SDI score through the season's first half. Lorenzo Cain is the closest center fielder to Buxton but he has less than half the SDI score that Buxton has compiled. Buxton could start clearing a spot in his trophy room but there are other things that go into the voting process. Right Field: Max Kepler SDI Ranking: 3.9 (2nd in the AL) In the early part of the season, I identified Kepler as one of a trio of players who was helping spur Minnesota's defensive turnaround. Kepler trails only Mookie Betts in the AL right field rankings but he is over 10 SDI points behind the AL leader. This will be a tough hill to climb in the second half but it doesn't take anything away from the strong season Kepler has put together in the outfield. In the minor leagues, he started fewer games in right field than in any other outfield position. If he continues to make strides at his new position, a Gold Glove could be in his future. Minnesota hasn't had a Gold Glove winner since 2010. Could Mauer or Buxton end the streak? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. Click here to view the article
    2 points
  8. I don't know what more you want from Hildenberger. He's been exceptional. Busenitz has been pretty good too from what I've seen. How many of the young relievers you cited are hurt?
    2 points
  9. I think the Twins should stick with whatever their original plan was. If it was a pitch count limit or an IP limit. You aren't going to do Romero any favors if he can't pitch deeper into the season. As long as he isn't feeling pain in his arm, stick with whatever the plan originally was. He has to be getting close to whatever cap the Twins have in mind.
    2 points
  10. Let's say the Twins lose 1-0 tonight, with Gibson going the distance. The run scores when a runner gets on by a passed third strike, a steal of second, takes third on a grounder to first, and then scores on a fly out where the outfielder throws up the line. Is it still Gibson/Falvine's fault?
    2 points
  11. Gold Glove Selection Criteria, direct from Rawlings' web site: https://www.rawlings.com/site-content/gold-glove-selection-criteria.html The Managers and their coaches vote... I would say that the old saying about a player's offense factoring into the choice hasn't really been the case for several years. It used to be, but I don't think that's the case anymore. My guess is that a lot of the managers/coaches reach out to their analytics group now.
    2 points
  12. If they win the game tonight does Falvey get all the credit? I'm more annoyed with the Melville start. Had never heard of him before this week and checked his minor league and major league stats and was quite underwhelmed. Would have preferred Gibson on short rest since he only went 4 innings and maybe his sinker benefits by it and then go with Slegers tonight.
    2 points
  13. Plus Mejia might be back at some point?
    2 points
  14. Unless the thinking of the voters for gold gloves has changed, Castro has no chance. They have historically been awarded to good offensive players who are decent on defense.
    2 points
  15. If you go just by results, Gee and Slegers should be in the rotation. Gibson, not so much. Santiago, no way. Then it's a matter of finding a fifth pitcher. Gonsalves or Jorge?
    2 points
  16. On Sept. 1 in MLB, rosters expand. For the entire month, teams can bring up and use any player on the 40-man roster. The usage of this is varied, as some teams will empty out their minors and stock their clubhouse and dugout. Others will simply bring up some pinch-runner types and an extra bullpen arm or two. It all depends on the team’s goals for the season and the construction of their rosters -- both 25- and 40-man. Some teams have more MLB-ready players on their 40’s than others, while others have some younger project-type players who the team just as soon would not want to promote and expose and/or pay an MLB daily salary to. It’s been awhile since the Twins were terribly good heading into September to the point where they were fine-tuning for the playoffs, and that’s frankly not the case this season, either. Most likely, the Twins will bring up any players they think can help them toward the goal of at least one of the Wild Card spots, if not chasing down Cleveland for the division crown in the final days of the season. And while the proverbial floodgates can open as early as Sept. 1, teams don’t like to leave their minor-league clubs playing shorthanded. For instance, the Rochester Red Wings are not only the current Wild Card team in the International League with a three-game lead over Lehigh Valley, but their regular-season schedule doesn’t end until Sept. 4 against Pawtucket. Thus, if the Red Wings miss the postseason, the mass exodus of players to Minneapolis would most likely start on Sept. 5. Either way, here are the players we think the Twins will bring up whenever the time is right next month: Mitch Garver - C/1B/OF Obviously he’s already up, but what we’re saying here is that he’s almost certain to stay up for the rest of the season. Without the injury to Robbie Grossman, Garver most likely finishes out the season at Triple-A Rochester before coming up. Now, with the timeline for recovery for Grossman likely stretching into September, Garver should be up for the duration, working in mostly at DH or first base with some reps in the outfield. As much as he’s caught this season, it’s difficult to ease a catcher into things this deep into the season on the big-league roster. We saw how Juan Centeno’s trial-by-fire went last year, and he was supposed to be a good catch-and-throw guy as well. Running mate Chris Gimenez raves about Garver’s improvement even since this spring, but he probably won’t catch much, if at all the rest of the way. Please click through here to read the rest of this article on ZoneCoverage.com.
    1 point
  17. On May 13, 2017 Byron Buxton was near rock bottom. 30 games into his season for the Minnesota Twins, he looked lost at the plate, was batting just .168, and owned a paltry .500 OPS. After an exciting September 2016, his new season had gotten off to a terrible start. Fast forward to today and things have changed, but it's the "how" and "why" that tell the story. Despite continuing to play otherworldly defense, Buxton was once again scuffling at the big league level. Despite raking at every stop along the way, he just couldn't put it together for the Twins. With only 5 extra base hits through 30 games, and a 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio, things were all going downhill. From the outside looking in, it's not as if there was a point in which things clicked, but small tweaks along the way have now narrated a different story. Fast forward to August 21, and Buxton is batting .243 with a .682 OPS. It's still a far cry from where he'd like to be, but there's no denying the massive jump in production. He's in the midst of a 12 game hitting streak (.400/.408/.800) and owns a .366/.402/.6123 line in 27 games dating back to July 4th. While the production in and of itself are fun to marvel at, it's worth digging to see what changes took place. Having both added and abandoned the leg kick multiple times over his career with the Twins, Buxton's swing has been a work in progress. At times, he's struggled with plate coverage, and a weak front side has prevented him from reaching and driving the outside pitch. He's continued to work with new hitting coach James Rowson to find something that works, and as the results come, so to does the comfortability. Outside of the physical changes though, we can eye a few trends that have yielded positive results. Through April, Buxton had a swinging strike rate of 16.1% and was making contact just 65.3% of the time. Both of those numbers are lackluster, and combining them with a 31.8% chase rate, there was little room for success to follow. Jump ahead to August, and Buxton has overhauled two of those three areas. He's swinging through just 11.4% of pitches, and his contact rate has jumped to 76.9%. He's still chasing often, now 34.8% of the time, but it would stand to argue that the reason isn't because he's being fooled. Like teammate Eddie Rosario, Buxton is somewhat of a free swinger. Now generating more contact and having an enhanced level of success, he's likely finding himself expand the strike zone on pitches he genuinely likes. While that still isn't going to produce ideal results, it's a better practice than flailing the bat head at pitches you've simply been fooled on. In fact, what Buxton's chase rate illustrates, is that his approach at the plate is still a work in progress, and there's even more to squeeze out when it comes to production. There have been times throughout Buxton's maturation at the plate he's struggled with different zones of coverage. Whether it be not having the ability to turn on the inside fastball, or to drive the outside breaking pitch, plate coverage was a by-product of a breakdown in swing mechanics. As those have begun to correct themselves, the Twins centerfielder has seen an uptick across the board. The next step for him is to settle in even further on pitch recognition, and hit balls in the zone he choose, rather than the ones opposing pitchers dictate to him. As the confidence has grown, the output has turned more favorable as well. Looking at the first two months of the season in comparison to the last three, quality has taken a significant leap forward. Rather than dribbling balls into the ground, Buxton has generated quality contact with launch angles that give him a chance to do something on the basepaths. His radial charts between the two instances display a night and day difference. Right now, as a .240 hitter, the Twins have themselves and above average regular. A Gold Glove defender is doing enough at the plate, Minnesota can't complain. Getting up closer to something like .260/.340/.480 would put him in elite territory. It's encouraging to see the process take shape in more than just the month of September, and it's great to know that there's still room to grow. At 23 years old, the Georgia native is probably just beginning to scratch the surface, and the prime that lies ahead of him remains incredibly exciting. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
    1 point
  18. When you're talking about Polanco, are you referring to the same guy that the peanut gallery wanted DFA'd just a few weeks ago, when his play was suffering while he was still in mourning? Imagine that, a talented young player getting better when given a supportive environment. Gotta give Molitor credit.
    1 point
  19. Limit innings now to rest for Southern League playoffs, then hopefully help the team to a AA championship.
    1 point
  20. That logic isn't a fair way of looking at things. We can't pretend it is as if we have won every single game we should have won and lost every game we should have lost.
    1 point
  21. I read them! That's how I knew who Melville was before yesterday. I personally am not dying to see more of Slegers, but he is 3 years younger than Melville and in his first taste of AAA (Melville is in his 3rd go-around). Melville has also been a minor league free agent after each of the last 3 seasons, and will be again if we remove him from the 40-man. Maybe that will be Slegers fate someday too, but for now I can see how he offers a bit more upside/control (albeit modest).
    1 point
  22. You guys clearly aren't reading the minor league reports. Melville has a 2.70 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 8.6 K/9 for Rochester. He went seven innings and gave up one run or less in four of his 10 starts there. Just for context, Aaron Slegers has a 3.18 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 6.7 K/9 at the same level this year, and everybody's dying to see more of him.
    1 point
  23. Just baffled about the Tim Melville callup. This guy's minor league numbers are bad. He's been an unsuccessful pitcher at every level. Like these-numbers-get-you-cut-before-high-A bad. Minor league career ERA of 4.58, WHIP of 1.43. What are they seeing? The article mentions a 96 mph fastball, but since it's never translated to outs... I get that they are grasping at straws on a doubleheader day, but this decision has no base. With this track record, I probably wouldn't let him start for the Saints. Super confused.
    1 point
  24. Gibson was good two years ago and I have given him more benefit than most but I agree he just hasn't been good. He sometimes appears to be victim of bad D or bad calls or bad luck but this is no longer SSS. He had a really good game early in the year where he threw his curve ball a lot but doesn't appear to throw it much anymore. Bad Nick Blackburn for a while now. 2015 he had 17 quality starts out of 32 and many were better than just 6 innings 3 runs that qualify. Last year was a poor 8 out of 25 and this year he is 4 of 21. In his wins two years ago his ERA was a ridiculously low 0.71 so essentially when he was on he was putting up Cy Young type numbers even though he was only on every other game. This year in his wins his ERA is 4.91 so even his best has been pretty poor.
    1 point
  25. Thanks for posting. Certainly the OF defense has been fun to watch. I'm curious on how Polanco scores at short and Sano at third. I don't think either of them are GG guys but both have been much better than I expected. Additionally, how does SDI like Rosario?
    1 point
  26. No message-sending, I'm sure... The Twins needed Slegers for a spot start. The Red Wings then needed Stewart for a spot start (for Slegers), and the Lookouts needed a spot start (for Stewart). Slegers now back with the Red Wings. We'll see what happens with Melville now to see what the Red Wings will need to do.
    1 point
  27. Looks like Polanco homered from both sides of the plate yesterday!
    1 point
  28. I think Mauer has earned a Gold Glove with some exceptional defense this year - but I'm curious to know if the national perception of his defensive prowess follows what the fans see. Statistics seem to only play a part in these awards - national perception dictates the rest. In that regard, I think Buxton is a likely Gold Glove winner this year. It could go without saying (but I'll say it anyway) he's been outstanding in CF - but he also makes the highlight reels routinely, and is discussed nationally as an exemplary defensive player.
    1 point
  29. Sorry, you cannot blame everything on being Canadian.
    1 point
  30. So did Slegers. Yet the decision makers decided to keep Gibson and have him start tonight instead. If the Twins lose tonight's game, it is all on Falvey. Gibson has been supposedly pitching for his job all year. He's been terrible all year other than a handful of starts. Yet for some inexplicable reason, they keep giving him the ball.
    1 point
  31. If Gee and Slegers remain in, aren't there already 5? Or are you advocating removing Colon?
    1 point
  32. Gee has earned another start or two, at least.
    1 point
  33. Daly Plaza Farmer's Market, 7a-3p. Might have to check it out this week or next while I'm on vacation.
    1 point
  34. And the thunderstorm cometh. Good thing this one didn't run as long.
    1 point
  35. Duffey with the 3 inning save... They are less common these days, and so should be cherished.
    1 point
  36. By the way, the last four sweeps have all occurred at the beginning of one of my business trips. If you'd like to contribute to the "Keep Sending IndianaTwin on Business Trips Fund," PM me and I'll send you bank routing and account number information.
    1 point
  37. Where's your office? I might have to show up tomorrow morning!
    1 point
  38. Have my co-workers been paying you off? With the second game considered the makeup, our office rules consider this to be the completion of a sweep, since the Twins won the other two games back in May. That means donuts for the office next time I'm in. AND, since it's not a normal sweep, but a sweep of the White Sox, this calls for more than your basic Dunkin' Donuts. It's off to the local Amish bakery to celebrate.
    1 point
  39. That looks like it might actually feed all of us!
    1 point
  40. Last time I went bowling, I tripped. Before I knew it, my mind was in the gutter.
    1 point
  41. Technically, wiping your face with your sleeve isn't "spilling." Just sayin'
    1 point
  42. Um, I don't really want to think about it
    1 point
  43. You'd hate watching in my living room
    1 point
  44. It wasn't ironic! I appreciate it, I don't get to read everything I want to and have the memory of a gold fish even if I did. Thanks!
    1 point
  45. Only because I was a pitcher all the way through college and the mound is a lonely lonely place when you're getting destroyed. Makes it all the worse that was his debut start
    1 point
  46. "That three-run homerun hurt." Very little escapes Bert.
    1 point
  47. If what you say is true (lack of HR's with men on is due to pitching around him), then his OBP should be higher with men on- it's not. Otherwise you are saying that pitchers just try harder not to make a mistake with men on, and it works. That doesn't make any sense to me. If it were that easy, they would just try harder all the time. Do you have any data to support your assertion that this happens league wide, and not just to Dozier?
    1 point
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