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Early one winter a trade was brewin I was layin' in bed wonderin if if it’d change anything If Dozier was dressed in blue or red His home runs balls they said their lives together Sure was gonna be rough They never did like his lazy flies and K's Twins’ bank book wasn't big enough And I was readin the side of Twins Daily Rumors fallin' on my shoes Heading out for the west coast or Midwest Lord knows he’s paid some dues Gettin' through Tangled up in n-n-n-n-news

Replacements - "Unsatisfied"

I keep seeing people say that we have plenty of 3 and 4 type starters. I feel like this isn't really accurate. We have 3 and 4 starters for what the Twins have been over the past 6-10 years, but I don't feel like we have many "league average" 3 or 4 starters. We all HOPE that some of our pitching prospects at AA and lower currently will become at least #3 or #4 starters, but man, in our current rotation, who would you quantify as #3 or #4 starters? Ervin Santana. To me, that's the entire list. I don't feel like the Twins have any other CURRENT DAY #3 starters. We all hope Berrios will become that, and I think he can based on his minor league numbers. But man, to poo poo the idea of a #3 starter coming back, when that is a MASSIVE upgrade to what the Twins currently have in the starting rotation, that to me isn't really a negative. I'm not saying we shoot for mediocrity; the Twins should always shoot for top of the rotation level type talent. But to say someone like Luke Weaver or Brock Stewart are guys who wouldn't upgrade our rotation, to me, that is crazy.

But, you have to be honest with where you are at, and who your best players are both today and in the next 2-3-5 years. Dozier is their best player. That is not up for debate. He was in 2016, and more than likely would again be in 2017. He also is turning 30 in May 2017, and is only signed through the 2018 season. With him specifically, would you... 1) Keep him through his contract, and let him leave as a free agent 2) Sign him to an extension, covering his age 32-36 year old seasons 3) Trade him now for value, since you believe option 2 isn't wise. Same with Ervin. I would absolutely listen because he also isn't going to be around after 2018. He just turned 34 a couple of weeks back, and the Twins have him for his age 34 and 35 season, his contract ending after 2018. Would you... 1) Keep him through his contract, hoping he still provides similar value for the next two seasons when he is 34 and 35 2) Sign him to an extension, paying him for when he is 36 and older 3) Trade him now for value, since you believe option 2 isn't wise. I do think the Twins can and should build around their youth. Buxton, Sano and Kepler are all really good young players to build around, and Jorge Polanco is right in the mix. They are also cheap, and should be good for the next 4+ years. If you can supplement and add to their core (these guys) by trading off your aging veterans, that is a very good move both for now and for the next 4+ years.

Husker Du - Everything Falls Apart

I'll jump in here. fangraphs write up on Gonsalves noted that his fastball "frequently sat 89-92 mph in starts this year, Gonsalves has mostly been 86-90 and touching 92 in the Arizona Fall League and is still somehow missing bats with a heater in that range." The concern with Gonsalves has always been that his stats are outplaying his stuff - concerns echoed by Klaw, as well. I like Gonsalves but I think Twins fans overrate him considerably. Comparing him to Milone seems fair in that both are back of the rotation guys. I don't think Gonsalves should be a top 100 prospect and I like both Jay and Stewart more, although that is a minority view.

Hey, if Reyes is on the table, I'd do Dozier for him straight up......so, ya, that would be great!

If it costs that much, I would want an option year. I do like the idea of taking high riak fliers on arms for the next year or two.

Especially a guy with a 15-season career with nearly an .800 OPS, nearly 200 home runs, nearly 400 doubles...

I hope you are wrong. He isn't going to be more valuable at the deadline than he is now.

103 losses and people are worried about changing the make-up of the team..... http://www.bluehogreport.com/wp-content/uploads/facepalm.jpg?x17359

And here we go again getting caught up on breaking down prospects instead of trying to find an approximate value for Ervin. It seems his value lies somewhere between borderline top 100 prospect and a borderline top 50 prospect. That seems pretty fair. The FA market and trade market is really limited so I think a good argument could be made that the valuation could be on the higher end of the scale.

Rolling Stones - "You Can't Always Get What You Want" I'm disappointed in myself for contributing the most obvious song title, but I'm even more disappointed in all of you for not getting to it first. Edit: Mike got me by a minute. Good one, Mike.

Beatles concerto in four movements: The Long and Winding Road, Come Together, We Can Work It Out, Ticket To Ride / That's the optimistic version. Less hopefully: Don't Let Me Down, Tell Me Why, No Reply, Help!

This thread will get a lot cooler if someone goes Harper/Strassburg on their classes this spring... just sayin...

Beatles "Hello, Goodbye" (Falvey speaking to Friedman) - I say high - You say low - You say why? - And I say, I don't know https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rblYSKz_VnI

This thread is cool. On the other baseball forum I post at there isn't any MLB Draft talk at this time (heats up closer to June) so looking forward to discussing the draft with yall throughout the next 6 months! I love following the draft.

I call it a build up.

Sickels weighs minor league stats more than a Law would. That would explain some of the divergence. I'm with you in preferring Jay and Stewart and their ceilings more.

I'm not sure the Cards couldn't beat the Dodger's offer. As said, Weaver's a nice looking SP prospect. His ceiling isn't as high as De Leon's but he seems more durable and safer. Flaherty is a nice looking prospect, too. A package around those two isn't as good as a De Leon/Alvarez package but might be better than a De Leon/Stewart type package. I think Levine knows a lot about prospects and won't get ripped off. We don't know how the Twins new FO views De Leon or Weaver.

A one year deal makes no sense if he's not likely to pitch this year.

trading 1 player for 2-3 that are in line to be on the roster in 1-2 years is a tear down? I think we define that differently....

Agreed. The prospects listed here would all be playing at some point in 2017 or 2018 more than l likely. These offers, if they are on the table, would help the Twins very soon and for the forseeable future. Trading Dozier isn't a tear down. It is using an asset at its highest value to gain more assets that have longer term value than Dozier will have WITH the Twins.

They may have been in on them or scouting them. The latest one, Norge Ruiz, was just signed by the A's. I don't know why the Twins did or didn't sign a guy that Wolfson reported they sent a scout out to watch. But man, I have a hard time holding that against the messenger. If there is something else, then fine. But just because the twins scout a guy and choose not to sign him, and that is reported on, that doesn't mean he is a bad reporter.

So you want to do a tear down and start a new 5 year plan? No one can predict who will win the World Series, the goal is to play meaningful baseball in September.

Hard to disagree with your analysis. My only issue is with the Park grade of D. We found out he might have been hurt frome the get go and he still posted a 0.1 WAR. That feels like a C grade and I'm still bullish on Park's future.

I think I might almost like a package of Weaver and Flaherty + more than a De Leon and Calhoun + package. I know De Leon has the higher ceiling but his shoulder and durability scare me. I think both Weaver and Flaherty are a bit underrated and could be Scott Baker/Ervin Santana types. Not ideal top of the rotation guys but a couple good durable pitchers. In any event, it's nice to see other teams in the mix.

I do believe that most are over rating the Cards pitching. Weaver and Flaherty are number 3/4 starters most likely. We have a ton of those in our system so why would we move our best asset for pieces like that. Bader is okay but not great power or speed. 4th outfielder type guy. Not seeing it here unless Reyes is included. As far as Wong they would need to make space for Dozier is why he would likely need to be included. He is still young and is still decent and has shown in flashes to be pretty good. Defensively he is very solid. I too believe that we are driving up the price and want Bellinger and Deleon and Bellinger is the sticking point most likely.

Very generous grades. Glass half full, if you ask me.

Can we stop with these "worst" threads? These are men doing their best, they might have had bad seasons with the Twins, but earnestly worked hard and had comparatively bad results during their stints with the team. It just seems so pointless to try to call them out and talk sh*t about them. So what? Every team has had players that didn't perform/develop as expected. They are all 1%ers that actually made it to a major league roster.

As the newly installed Minnesota Twins leadership navigates its first offseason, the challenge is twofold: evaluating the personnel already in place, while supplementing and improving the existing core. As we await more movement on the latter front, let's review the roster that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are inheriting, and how it fared in the most recent season.We'll start our case-by-case review of the 2016 Twins with a look at the infield. Each player who accrued at least 50 plate appearances, and remains in the organization currently, gets a write-up below. Brian Dozier, 2B 2016 Stats: 691 PA, .268/.340/.546, 42 HR, 99 RBI, 104 R, 5.9 WAR Contract Status: Signed through 2018 for $15 million Dozier easily had the best season of any Twin, and in fact his performance measures as one of the best in franchise history. He was a one-man wrecking crew, piling up 82 extra-base hits (tied with Colorado's Nolan Arenado for third-most in the majors) while swiping 18 bases on 20 attempts. He filled the stat sheet and single-handedly produced offense in a way we've rarely seen. For this elite power to come from a middle infield position, along with steady and occasionally spectacular glove work at second base, only increases the relative value of Dozier's output. In a sea of disappointing performances, the veteran clubhouse leader delivered one for the ages – which sadly would do little to stem the tide for an historically inept team. 2016 Grade: A+ 2017 Outlook: If he's still here, Dozier will enter 2017 as the featured centerpiece in a powerful lineup. Will he continue to bat leadoff, as he did for every game in August and September, or move to a more traditional run-producing spot at the heart of the order? Eduardo Escobar, SS 2016 Stats: 377 PA, .236/.280/.338, 6 HR, 37 RBI, 32 R, -0.6 WAR Contract Status: Signed through 2017 for $2.6 million It was a rough year for Escobar. Just when it appeared he had found a home at shortstop, overtaking the position in 2015 and earning an Opening Day nod this past spring, he was derailed by middling production, injuries, and the emergence of an exciting rookie who captured the manager's favor. By season's end, he had fallen back into his familiar old utility role. In September and October, only two of his 19 starts came at shortstop, and he dragged across the finish line offensively with a brutal .348 OPS. The 27-year-old bottomed out at the exact wrong time, reflected by a meager $500,000 raise this offseason. 2016 Grade: D- 2017 Outlook: Escobar is undoubtedly as motivated as ever to bounce back and prove himself next year, but as things stand he will be heading to camp as a backup, capable of filling in around the diamond. Joe Mauer, 1B 2016 Stats: 576 PA, .261/.363/.389, 11 HR, 49 RBI, 68 R, 1.0 WAR Contract Status: Signed through 2018 for $46 million In some ways, Mauer revived hope in his ability to be a solid contributor. Following a 2015 season that was the worst of his career, he raised his OPS back to a respectable level while matching his highest home run total (11) since the MVP campaign in 2009. His walk rate rebounded to 13.7 percent, placing him among the league leaders, and as a result he led all Twins regulars with a .363 OBP. In other ways, though, 2016 was a reaffirmation of Mauer's diminished ability. The three-time batting champion saw his batting average drop for a third straight year, sinking to a career-low .261. His characteristically pedestrian home run total was accompanied by only 22 doubles, his fewest in a full season. Defensively he was nothing special. 2016 Grade: C 2017 Outlook: Turning 34 next March, Mauer remains entrenched at first base by virtue of his contract and reputation, but reduced playing time will be a very real possibility if his bat shows little life in the early part of the season. John Ryan Murphy, C 2016 Stats: 82 PA, .146/.193/.220, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 4 R, -0.5 WAR Contract Status: Pre-arbitration, under team control for ~$550K in 2017 With Kurt Suzuki and Juan Centeno moving on, Murphy is the only member of the 2016 Minnesota catching group set to return. Unfortunately, he was also the worst performer. After starting his Twins career with a 3-for-40 slump, Murphy was demoted to Triple-A, where he continued to hit poorly. He posted a .609 OPS in Rochester, then returned to the majors as a September call-up, collecting three hits in his triumphant return and then finishing out 6-for-38. It was, from any perspective, a disastrous first year for a player whose offensive capabilities were always more hypothetical than material. Defensively he is above-average, with strong athleticism behind the plate, but he doesn't shine enough there to offset the staggering lack of production we've seen since his acquisition. Not even close. 2016 Grade: F 2017 Outlook: Barring further moves, Murphy figures to slot in as the backup to Jason Castro. Most of his starts will hopefully come against lefties. If the bat doesn't turn around quickly, then I'd expect Falvey and Levine (who of course played no part in trading for Murphy) to move on quickly. Byung Ho Park, 1B 2016 Stats: 244 PA, .191/.275/.409, 12 HR, 24 RBI, 28 R, 0.1 WAR Contract Status: Signed through 2019 for $9.25 million Along with Murphy, Park was Minnesota's biggest offseason splash a year ago. The fact that both players spent large chunks of the season in Triple-A certainly glares as an indictment of Terry Ryan and his efforts to bolster an 83-win team. Park, though, was not quite as discouraging a case. The vaunted power was there, clearly. There were some memorable, mammoth shots among the dozen that the South Korean slugger sent over the fence during his time with the Twins. But he was generally overmatched by MLB pitching, and his average sagged until it dropped below .200 and he was demoted in early July. In Triple-A, the story was much the same – great power accompanied by little else – until he underwent season-ending hand surgery. The ailment that placed him under the knife – a damaged tendon in his right hand – bothered him in addition to wrist tendinitis, and certainly might help explain his difficulties swinging the stick. He was also acclimating to a new league, a new country and a new culture. And consider this: if Park exchanged 10 strikeouts for 10 singles during his time in Minnesota, his line turns to .237/.316/.456. That's the kind of production you can live with from a DH. 2016 Grade: D 2017 Outlook: Park will likely be ticketed for Triple-A initially next spring, but it would be no shock if a big showing earns him the DH job with Minnesota. Generating more contact will be the decisive factor. Jorge Polanco, SS 2016 Stats: 270 PA, .282/.332/.424, 4 HR, 27 RBI, 24 R, -0.1 WAR Contract Status: Pre-arbitration, under team control for ~$550K in 2017 Finally breaking through after cups of coffee in 2014 and 2015, Polanco enjoyed a very successful rookie season. He consistently made contact, put up strong numbers, and operated as the everyday shortstop in the final months. There is plenty to like about the 23-year-old's offensive profile. He swings from both sides, makes plenty of contact and sprays line drives. But his ceiling at the plate is limited, and his proper home in the infield is very much in question. Polanco's aptitude at shortstop, a position he had mostly stopped playing in the minors, was iffy at best. 2016 Grade: B 2017 Outlook: He has arrived, no doubt about that. Based on the demonstrated preferences of Paul Molitor, Polanco is the favorite to start at shortstop for now. But with the team focusing intensely on run prevention, the wisdom of plugging in a blatant defensive liability at the infield's most important position is suspect. Of course, a Dozier trade would open up Polanco's ideal spot. Miguel Sano, RF/3B 2016 Stats: 495 PA, .236/.319/.462, 25 HR, 66 RBI, 57 R, 1.3 WAR Contract Status: Pre-arbitration, under team control for ~$550K in 2017 It was a disappointing sophomore season for Sano, but only in the shadow of his prodigious talent and the incredibly high bar he set as a rookie. Without that context, a .781 OPS and 25 jacks from a 23-year-old who fell just short of 500 plate appearances due to injury ain't bad at all. Sano started the year miscast as an outfielder, and spent the second half alternating between DH and third base, where he managed to commit 15 errors in 42 starts. Cleaning up his defense, and lowering his egregious 36 percent K-rate, will be critical in taking the step to stardom. 2016 Grade: B- 2017 Outlook: The decision to release Trevor Plouffe was an indication that the Twins are ready to move forward with Sano at the hot corner, despite his mistake-prone showing in 2016. Lessons learned from the trials he faced should lead to greater resolve and focus moving forward. He remains an MVP-caliber talent at the dish. Kennys Vargas, 1B 2016 Stats: 177 PA, .230/.333/.500, 10 HR, 20 RBI, 27 R, 0.6 WAR Contract Status: Pre-arbitration, under team control for ~$550K in 2017 It's been quite the rollercoaster ride for Vargas. He burst onto the scene with a prolific MLB debut as a September call-up in 2014, then opened as designated hitter the following season. He nearly played his way out of the team's plans during the ensuing summer, with an embarrassing demotion to Double-A speaking loudly. He opened 2016 in Rochester and started slow, then heated up in May and June, earning his way back to the majors. Upon returning, he tore it up for six weeks, got demoted due to a roster crunch, then came back in September and slumped. With all the ups and downs, it's tough to know what to make of Vargas. But this much is evident: he's a big switch-hitter with immense raw power, whose walk rate (13.6%) and Isolated Power (.270) would have both ranked near the top of the league if had he qualified. His uneven performance carried many positive signs, but time is running out for the 26-year-old. As a guy whose sole value proposition is mashing the ball, he needs to start doing so with a lot more consistency. 2016 Grade: B 2017 Outlook: Having been optioned to the minors three times already, Vargas would typically be in a position next spring where he'd need to head north with the Twins or be exposed to waivers. But the club successfully petitioned for a fourth option year (per Mike Berardino) so sending him back to Triple-A is on the table. The door is open for signing a plug-in at DH; otherwise, it might come down to a Grapefruit League competition between Vargas and Park. Click here to view the article

One more: Lynyrd Skynyrd - The Missisippi Kid.

Even espn just ran an item on the bottom line backing up my report (for weeks) that a team like the Cards were never in the running. Doogie, what happened?

You can't always get what you want Gone Daddy Gone

This thread makes me feel much younger than I am.....thanks all!

Slip Slidin' Away?

From MLBTR: TODAY: St. Louis is not “actively” working to acquire Dozier, per ESPN.com’s Mark Saxon (via Twitter). http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/cardinals-brian-dozier-trade-rumors-nationals-twins.html So, it appears DaveW was right. Again.

Good data. I was opposed to the Santana signing at the time, though not opposed to Santana himself. I just felt another free agent to go with Hughes and Nolasco was too many rotation innings to squander while stunting development of guys like May and Meyer who you mention in the third paragraph...all water under the bridge at this point. My gut says going forward with Santana in 2017 is a better option than whatever the Twins might net in a trade. I plan to do a quick check and post findings on what those 20 guys netted in trades at that age.

prince: how come u don't call me anymore

Trading your second basemen for two top 100 prospects that are a year or two away is not tearing it down.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-24-prospects-minnesota-twins/ Now, that's not to say Gonsalves is doomed. Sickels at minorleaugeball is more optimistic on Gonsalves, for example. But I think Gonsalves ceiling is limited whereas guys like Jay and Stewart and Thorpe could end up better than him. But, again, i don't think Gonsalves is a top 100 guy while others do.

<sad Charlie Brown music.../>

Unless you refuse to cut/bench/demote a bad player because of money, and he takes up a roster spot and is bad/blocking a better player.....you only get a couple dozen guys on the roster. We've seen that before.

I think a deal could be made that would get the Twins interested in working with the Cardinals. De Leon is a GREAT prospect, but he isn't a given. Will be nice to have more teams talking.

I'd 100% want prospects back, the Twins need to rebuild. That said, most of the prospects he listed are in AA or AAA or have some MLB time already, this isn't a bunch of rookie ball guys....

Well, he has tweeted for years that the Twins were "in on" every Cuban.....IMO, and this is me not knowing anything other than what I read, he's a mouthpiece for the Twins.

I would withhold the plus from Doziers grade due to his and the team's soul crushing start.

Terrible was a bit rough, my bad. But he doesn't have the upside IMO and has no reason being on a rebuilding club.

Logical Centerpieces from each team rumored for me to pull the trigger on trading Dozier if I'm the Twins: Dodgers: RHP Jose De Leon & RHP Yadier Alvarez Other Complimentary Players to Watch: 2B/DH Willie Calhoun, RHP Walker Buehler, RHP Jordan Sheffield, SS Gavin Lux, C Austin Barnes, RHP Brock Stewart Cardinals: RHP Luke Weaver, OF Harrison Bader, & RHP Jack Flaherty Other Complimentary Players to Watch: SS Delvin Perez, OF Magneuris Sierra, RHP Junior Fernandez, RHP Sandy Alcantara, RHP Dakota Hudson, C Carson Kelly Nationals: OF Victor Robles & RHP Erick Fedde Other Complimentary Players to Watch: SS Carter Kieboom, 3B Sheldon Nuese, LHP Jesus Luzardo, C Pedro Severino, Giants: SS/3B Christian Arroyo, RHP Tyler Beede, 1B Chris Shaw, & RHP Rodolfo Martinez Other Complimentary Players to Watch: OF Bryan Reynolds, RHP Sam Coonrod, C Aramis Garcia, RHP Joan Gregorio, LHP Andrew Suarez, RHP Jordan Johnson Yes, this is all prospects. I don't understand the people in these forums that want to emphasize major league ready talent. That makes zero sense. Why would we want Kolten Wong? The Twins are not winning the world series in 2017, 2018, or 2019. So it makes sense to get the best possible players with the most upside, not someone who will be in our rotation or play second base for us in 2017.

I agree with Chief... money should not be an issue. However... I want the draft pick. I personally endured a 103 loss season and the draft positions were my reward for tolerating all of that.