Twins Daily 2022 Top Prospects: #7 Jhoan Duran

Not much to say that wasn't already said in the article. He hasn't played much the last two years so it is really hard to say just where he is at. Like the OP just hoping for a healthy season at this point.  If that arm does return healthy and he can start that would be the best case scenario as he does seem to have special stuff.

People have visions of modular pitching staffs yet is hasn't been done. Relievers haven't pitched 100 innings since iron Mike Marshall for a reason. Duran isn't the pitcher to do that

The essay brings up a question for me - which is harder on a pitchers arm - pitching out of the bullpen 3 - 4 times a week (including warmups) or starting once a week?  I do not know the answer, But I do know RP are very erratic and few can match a Nathan for consistency from year to year.  

I do hope Duran can start.  I can never subscribe to modular pitching so I will pass on that.  But if it is to be the BP I fine, but I do hope he is up this year and producing for us. 

I think the idea would be for him is a bulk pitcher,  about 4 innings 3 times every two weeks.  That might limit the stress.  You are talking a max of 80 pitches while he builds back his arm strength.  Whether he does that in St. Paul or with the Twins is TBD. 

Great reading, Nick, thanks.

Don't recall seeing the term, "modular pitching staff" anywhere before.  Is that your term?  Or is it being used around baseball?

Whether it is once thru the lineup (2-to-3 innings) or twice (4-5 innings), something like this makes sense.  Not certain how the numbers work with limits of 13 pitchers.  Is that limitation still in place?  Or won't we know until the CBA is signed?

Would also think that if you had pairs of pitchers piggy-backed to hopefully get 7 innings, you would still need at least five guys in the bullpen to close out most games.  If these pitchers are pitching 3 or 4 innings a game, would they be available every fourth day, rather than every fifth?  If they were, you could have 8 of them and 5 traditional relievers to close out games. 

Can certainly see Duran being effective in this type of role this year.  Expect he will begin at St Paul, assuming major league players begin the season anywhere.

#10, 9, 8 and 7 are all promising pitchers. And there are 6 more spots to go, which will surely contain three more pitchers (Strotman, Caterino and Balazovic).  I like it. 7 out of the top 10 prospects will be promising pitchers. Plus, neither Ober nor Ryan are eligible for this prospect list.  That means, my friends, that the Twins have at least nine young, good, promising pitchers...some of whom can really throw heat. What are the odds that 50% will pan out to be useful major league pitchers?  What are the odds that 2 of the 9 will become healthy, long-term starters? This group of pitchers is what I was hoping for when Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were hired. Thanks FO. Plus Lewis, Martin and Miranda will all be productive major leaguers for years to come. I am very optimistic for the Twins future. Especially IF, and these are 3 huge IF's, Lewis can quickly become 1) an above average, major league fielding SS, 2) an average hitter and 3) a team leader.

Some pitchers have problems with recovery after pitching. thus the term loose arm and problems for many in throwing back to back games (Rogers?). Can Duran pitch an inning or two every other day? He should likely make his introduction in MLB as a relief pitcher in stints less of two innings or less until the Twins can ascertain the full story of how his arm reacts to pitching. 

37 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

#10, 9, 8 and 7 are all promising pitchers. And there are 6 more spots to go, which will surely contain three more pitchers (Strotman, Caterino and Balazovic).  I like it. 7 out of the top 10 prospects will be promising pitchers. Plus, neither Ober nor Ryan are eligible for this prospect list.  That means, my friends, that the Twins have at least nine young, good, promising pitchers...some of whom can really throw heat. What are the odds that 50% will pan out to be useful major league pitchers?  What are the odds that 2 of the 9 will become healthy, long-term starters? This group of pitchers is what I was hoping for when Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were hired. Thanks FO. Plus Lewis, Martin and Miranda will all be productive major leaguers for years to come. I am very optimistic for the Twins future. Especially IF, and these are 3 huge IF's, Lewis can quickly become 1) an above average, major league fielding SS, 2) an average hitter and 3) a team leader.

I think Ryan is still prospect Eligible so likely coming up soon.  I think Strotman is likely out of the top 10 as he is in the teens on most lists I have seen.  Still your point stands and I too am encouraged with the quality of the pitchers coming up.  Most have mid 90's fastballs and plus secondary's so I am optimistic as well..

He's running out of minor league options which means he needs to debut this season. That means he's probably headed to the bullpen. If he's only a reliever then he's ranked too high. If he loses this season to surgery then I think he's out of options next spring without any big league experience.

Duran in AA 2019: 37 IP 4.86 RA9 10.0 K9 2.2 BB9

Duran in AAA 2021: 16 IP 5.06 RA9 12.4 K9 7.3 BB9

He hasn't proven himself in AA or AAA. Winder has pitched a lot better at those levels.

15 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

He's running out of minor league options which means he needs to debut this season. That means he's probably headed to the bullpen. If he's only a reliever then he's ranked too high. If he loses this season to surgery then I think he's out of options next spring without any big league experience.

 

I agree with this, IMO he is rated too high. He will be 24 this season which isn't horrible, but having pitched only 16 innings the last two years isn't a good.  IMO if he is running out of options, it makes no sense to waste any time in the minors, he can pitch out of the bullpen (starting with low stress situations, maybe have a starter and have him planned to pitch two innings, or coming in for a couple innings if a starter goes bad) in majors and keep his innings down and be around major league coaches. I seen no reason to be wasting 100 mph fast balls from a 24 year old pitcher in AAA. Or trade him and let the other team worry about the 40 man roster spot, like TB did with Strotman)

Not to change the subject but are all the other teams having issues with pitching injuries based on the missed 2020 season or are the Twins fans (me included) just wanting to make excuses?

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

#10, 9, 8 and 7 are all promising pitchers. And there are 6 more spots to go, which will surely contain three more pitchers (Strotman, Caterino and Balazovic).  I like it. 7 out of the top 10 prospects will be promising pitchers. Plus, neither Ober nor Ryan are eligible for this prospect list.  That means, my friends, that the Twins have at least nine young, good, promising pitchers...some of whom can really throw heat. What are the odds that 50% will pan out to be useful major league pitchers?  What are the odds that 2 of the 9 will become healthy, long-term starters? This group of pitchers is what I was hoping for when Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were hired. Thanks FO. Plus Lewis, Martin and Miranda will all be productive major leaguers for years to come. I am very optimistic for the Twins future. Especially IF, and these are 3 huge IF's, Lewis can quickly become 1) an above average, major league fielding SS, 2) an average hitter and 3) a team leader.

I wouldn’t sleep on Varland and Sands either. Plus Dobnak and Jax could be serviceable major leaguers too. So that’s 13 pitchers - if just two become regular #2-3 type starters and two/three are consistent #4 types, our Twins will have a solid AND very cheap/controllable starting staff for several years. 
 

There will be plenty of opportunities for Duran to an ultra effective pen piece if that’s ultimately his best role. 
 

Re Lewis, yes, an everyday SS would be huge. However, I’d be more than happy if he turned out to be an anchor corner OF along with Martin either side of Buxton. 

I'm hoping that Duran will turn out be like Alcala. Alcala came up & figured it out, he could be figured into the "modular pitching staff". Modular pitching staff seems to be the only way to accommodate our current pitching staff, especially after trading away Berrios. Even if we pick up a SP or 2 that can go 5+ quality innings, we still need a large rotating long relief corp (which they failed to do last season, which I credit to our early large hole) to give relief to the usually over burdened rotation and short relief . Duran should eventually fit into this scheme.

3 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm hoping that Duran will turn out be like Alcala. Alcala came up & figured it out, he could be figured into the "modular pitching staff". Modular pitching staff seems to be the only way to accommodate our current pitching staff, especially after trading away Berrios. Even if we pick up a SP or 2 that can go 5+ quality innings, we still need a large rotating long relief corp (which they failed to do last season, which I credit to our early large hole) to give relief to the usually over burdened rotation and short relief . Duran should eventually fit into this scheme.

Yeah I am kind of excited about the possibility of Alcala and Duran as pitchers that can throw 100 out of the pen.  They could rotate them and always have a high octane arm to use.  Having those types of arms can make a big difference especially come playoff time.

17 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm hoping that Duran will turn out be like Alcala. Alcala came up & figured it out, he could be figured into the "modular pitching staff". Modular pitching staff seems to be the only way to accommodate our current pitching staff, especially after trading away Berrios. Even if we pick up a SP or 2 that can go 5+ quality innings, we still need a large rotating long relief corp (which they failed to do last season, which I credit to our early large hole) to give relief to the usually over burdened rotation and short relief . Duran should eventually fit into this scheme.

Lets hope Duran figures out better than Alcala, Alcala might have figured it based on his last 10-20 innings against some of the worst teams in baseball in his second season.

17 minutes ago, Dman said:

Yeah I am kind of excited about the possibility of Alcala and Duran as pitchers that can throw 100 out of the pen.  They could rotate them and always have a high octane arm to use.  Having those types of arms can make a big difference especially come playoff time.

I just don't see this happening. 100 inning relief pitchers for a bunch of reasons. Scott Proctor was the last pitcher to do it at age 29 for his career basically last one more year. Dellin Betances pitched 90 as a 25 year old rookie went down each of the next four years, and has been hurt or terrible the last 3.

Also, I can't imagine union or at least player agents being OK, with bringing up pitchers on the cheap to pitch 100 innings and then basically their career being over or not have a chance for a multiple year contracts.  Also I see agents steering their players away from teams setting up their minor leagues system to implement it. But all this just my opinion.

14 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I just don't see this happening. 100 inning relief pitchers for a bunch of reasons. Scott Proctor was the last pitcher to do it at age 29 for his career basically last one more year. Dellin Betances pitched 90 as a 25 year old rookie went down each of the next four years, and has been hurt or terrible the last 3.

Also, I can't imagine union or at least player agents being OK, with bringing up pitchers on the cheap to pitch 100 innings and then basically their career being over or not have a chance for a multiple year contracts.  Also I see agents steering their players away from teams setting up their minor leagues system to implement it. But all this just my opinion.

Not 100 innings but 100 on the gun. I would protect Duran's arm especially this season and he will have to start at AAA and be dominant just to get a chance so there are plenty of ifs for this year.  But two flame throwers would be nice.

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Lets hope Duran figures out better than Alcala, Alcala might have figured it based on his last 10-20 innings against some of the worst teams in baseball in his second season.

It's all a progression. Alcala started out pretty well against RH hitters and then there was adapting and development. He's still developing and has progressed in the right direction and he has value for the Twins. I don't expect Duran to set the world on fire (although he might), My hope is he'll be serviceable for the Twins, continue to develop in the right direction and adapt to the hitters adapting to him.

I see Jhoan Duran as a Fernando Romero type right now. Way, way overhyped. First, I feel it's a longshot Duran avoids being relegated to the bullpen... and that's if he can actually get guys out in the high minors enough for him to earn a spot on the big league roster.

I might have Duran in the top 20 Twins prospects right now, but probably not in the top 15.

6 hours ago, Dman said:

I think Ryan is still prospect Eligible so likely coming up soon.  I think Strotman is likely out of the top 10 as he is in the teens on most lists I have seen.  Still your point stands and I too am encouraged with the quality of the pitchers coming up.  Most have mid 90's fastballs and plus secondary's so I am optimistic as well..

Strotman wasn't listed in this series of listings previously in the 11 - 20, nor in the honorable mention list, so I figure he will be in this list. Maybe I'm wrong. If Ryan is eligible to be part of this list, then I will be wrong about Strotman. 

5 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

I wouldn’t sleep on Varland and Sands either. Plus Dobnak and Jax could be serviceable major leaguers too. So that’s 13 pitchers - if just two become regular #2-3 type starters and two/three are consistent #4 types, our Twins will have a solid AND very cheap/controllable starting staff for several years. 
 

There will be plenty of opportunities for Duran to an ultra effective pen piece if that’s ultimately his best role. 
 

Re Lewis, yes, an everyday SS would be huge. However, I’d be more than happy if he turned out to be an anchor corner OF along with Martin either side of Buxton. 

Lewis, Martin and Buxton would be a terrific defensive OF. Now about the SS position....

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Strotman wasn't listed in this series of listings previously in the 11 - 20, nor in the honorable mention list, so I figure he will be in this list. Maybe I'm wrong. If Ryan is eligible to be part of this list, then I will be wrong about Strotman. 

I guess I hadn't realized that.  MLB.com has him at 17 and Fangraphs at 7 so you have a point that he could still be there.  It is just that Seth just had him number 15 for just pitchers in the system and that is why I figured he wouldn't be top 6.

2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Lewis, Martin and Buxton would be a terrific defensive OF. Now about the SS position....

Easy - sign Story and declare victory.

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Easy - sign Story and declare victory.

 

That's what I'm talking about.

Jhoan Duran, he has the power of fire in his hand. Let him live in the bullpen, to see if he can control this fire for the Twins. Maybe Wes Johnson can teach him to throw the same speed with a little less strain to his elbow and shoulder. If so, it could help him control his power. 

We know Duran will pitch in spring training. Who will throw faster? Nobody. With a lack of established attractions on the pitching staff (no Berrios, no Maeda, no Pineda), it could be a very cold April at the box office if the Twins don't heat things up a little by keeping a chair open for Duran. 

I feel as though some people here forget that just because Duran might start in the BP this year doesn't mean he will stay there for his career. There are a lot of pitchers these days who start off in the BP for the innings and to be with the MLB coaches and then transition back to full time starters after a year or two. Even for the Twins, I can think of a couple guys in the early and mid 00's that had pretty good careers as starters who made debuts in the BP.