Age: 18 (DOB: 4/4/03)
2021 Stats (Rookie): 5 IP, 5.40 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 6 K, 1 BB
ETA: 2025
2021 Ranking: NR
National Top 100 Rankings
BA: NR | MLB: NR | ATH: NR | BP: NR
What's To Like
Pure, raw upside. Petty may have a long way to go (as we'll discuss), but he's got plenty to work with.
The 18-year-old grew up in Millville, NJ, a city which is now best known as the hometown of Mike Trout. Petty quickly emerged as a special talent on the mound, and committed to the University of Florida as a sophomore in high school.
By the time he was done at Mainland Regional High, going to college would barely be a consideration.
Petty emerged as a top pitching prospect in the nation during his senior year, returning from the pandemic downtime with newfound velocity. In his first start of 2021, after more than a year off, he reportedly touched 102 MPH multiple times en route to a complete game, one-hit shutout, striking out 13 of the 25 batters he faced. His 89th and final pitch buzzed in at 98.
This set the stage for a final prep season that saw Petty go 6-1 with a 1.00 ERA and 99 strikeouts in 48 2/3 innings pitched, earning Gatorade Player of the Year honors in New Jersey.
The fastball is clearly special, rated by Baseball America as the best among all high school pitchers. Not only is its velocity incredible, but Petty's heater has impressive movement, too. "When it’s coming in, it looks like a ping-pong ball coming at you and it moves all over the place,” said one of his high school catchers.
His slider is as a legitimate weapon, viewed as having 70-grade potential, and his changeup is more advanced than most for his age.
The Twins selected him with their first pick in the 2021 draft, 26th overall, and sent him to a brief debut in rookie ball, where he struck out six of 21 batters (29%) with one walk over two short outings.
So far so good. But a long way to go.
What's Left To Work On
Staying healthy and staying the course. For all his potential, Petty's profile is a cacophony of burnout risk.
High school pitchers are inherently a hazardous bunch, as the Twins have learned with their last few high-profile gambles in the category. Third-rounder Blayne Enlow was persuaded to sign with an over-slot bonus instead of going to college in 2017. Five years later he's out for the season with Tommy John surgery and still hasn't pitched above A-ball. Kohl Stewart, the fourth overall pick in 2013, was a total bust.
Risk is elevated for prep pitchers who are touching triple-digits.
“There’s always a concern that physically guys who throw that hard in high school are not catching up to what their arms are doing,” said one big-league scout in a story for the Philadelphia Inquirer. “There’s a concern they may break down at some point and there are concerns about what they’ve done to get to that point.”
These concerns are well founded. There haven't been many high school pitchers known to reach 100 MPH, but this small sample hasn't yielded much success.
Hunter Greene, the power-pitching phenom selected 2nd overall in 2017 (right after Royce Lewis), endured major arm problems almost immediately, derailing his early prospect progression. He seemingly got back on track in 2021, but he's now 22 with a total of 179 innings logged in the minors.
Riley Pint, taken 4th overall by the Rockies a year earlier and likewise lauded for brandishing 100-MPH heat as a teenager, was pretty much a mess from the get-go, plagued by persistent injury and control issues.
These guys were both considered much "safer" bets than Petty, who fell to the back of the first round due to concerns about his mechanics and minimal established workload. Injuries limited his time on the field greatly as a sophomore, and COVID-19 wiped out his junior year, so Petty has a stunningly small sample of actual performance to analyze, even within the context of a prep pitcher.
Keith Law of the The Athletic describes Petty as having "a high-effort delivery with some head violence, certainly not one you typically see in a starter," and adds that "the Twins may have to decide to tone down the delivery to give him a better chance to start or roll the dice on the pure power of his arm and see if he can get to command in spite of how it all works."
What's Next
Petty threw only five official innings last year after being drafted, speaking to the caution with which the organization will likely handle him going forward. As Law suggests, they're going to need to make a decision on whether they want to alter or tone down his delivery – possibly while sacrificing some of the pure power that makes him special – and from there it's a matter of building up his workload.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Petty spend the early part of the season on the sidelines to work on strength, conditioning, and stylistic refinement, then head to rookie ball or even Low-A as the summer gets going. It'll be interesting to keep an eye on his numbers, but ultimately, the real goal is a smooth and healthy season that sees him establish a workload baseline while acclimating to the pro ranks.
Previous Rankings
Honorable Mentions
Prospects 16-20
Prospects 11-15
#10: Josh Winder, RHP
#9: Chase Petty, RHP
#8: Coming tomorrow!
MORE FROM TWINS DAILY
— Latest Twins coverage from our writers
— Recent Twins discussion in our forums
— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
— Become a Twins Daily Caretaker
- Dman, tarheeltwinsfan and MN_ExPat
-
3
Recommended Comments
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.