TD Top Twins Prospect Rankings (Post Draft and Trade Deadline): 1-5

Exciting, Twins in my mind are back to having a top 5 farm system, while still having decent position players in the majors.  Offseason should be tough as 40 man decisions, plus moving some players to make room with the big club will keep things interesting.

I worry about Duran.  Not getting an operation this year could just delay the inevitable.  I hope they are correct in letting him just rest, but we have been down that road before.  I am pleased to have three pitchers in the top five.  

I have no idea if Lewis should still be number one.  After the last two years he has become this mystical figure that we all look up to, but having not seen him don't really have anything to justify putting him on the pedestal.  

For your wrap up on the series put out two lists - pitchers - position players.  

I put less stock in AFL numbers vs the entire season he had leading into it. Gordon had a similar breakout in AFL just to fall back again, so clearly the environment down there can lead to unrepresentative results. But grading on potential alone I can see why he’d be #1 until he comes back healthy and shows where he’s at. 

Wichita, as a new affiliate, certainly can't complain about a lack of talent. The Twins have done well for them.

The Twins FO, at least at first blush, did a great job at the trade deadline.  They got legit prospects for Berrios and Cruz and to have been able to deal Happ for Gant, a major league pitcher who should certainly factor into our mix for BP or even starting rotation in 2022 is beyond amazing.  However, as is always the case (even in Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz trades) it usually takes a little time for the seller of the "major league talent"  and Cruz and Berrios were the best we had, to show a return.  Lewis and Martin could be studs to build around in the future along with Kiriloff.  But the challenge for the Twins FO this winter will be what they can do, and what their realistic expectations are for 2022 and 2023.  This has been a "magic" baseball season for the White Sox.  Just like 2019 was for us.  Will they cash in with a World Series Championship or fall short like we did ??  Baseball seasons tend to be very different from year to year.  Who expected the Red Sox to be any good this year after their 2020 showing.  Are we really as far behind the White Sox as we appear to be?  Quite possibly.  They've had a tremendous year without Eloy Jim and Robert for virtually the entire year.  What is our FO's assessment of this current Twins team ??  No doubt, we have re-stocked our farm system.  But some of these "promising" guys are going to have to start making meaningful contributions...SOON.  How will the FO re-tool for next year to build a bridge from 2022 to 2023 ?  I'm very interested to see how it plays out.  I thought being a little more aggressive in 2020 and this off-season would have pushed us over the top.  I really thought a closer like Rosenthal or Yates would have been a strategic and excellent addition.  Both have missed the entire season.  Shows what I know.  But I still love to follow and voice my opinion.   

I think this is right for the top 5. I would flip Martin & Lewis (lol), but I know I'm higher on Martin than a lot of people. I'm not worried about his power development, and his ability to control the strike zone is really remarkable for a guy in his first professional season. Lewis is seriously talented, but losing this entire year after not having a minor league season last year hurts his development.

Balazovic may not have quite as good raw stuff as Duran, but he's probably a more complete pitcher right now and it's not like he doesn't have good stuff. While he's spent a little time on the IL this year, he's back and healthy and dominating again and it's more than fair to be concerned about Duran's elbow.

Looking forward to seeing Woods-Richardson and seeing what he can do. 

Excited about Twins prospects, maybe put Duran in bullpen for a year to get his arm healthy.;

The 2023 Twins should be exciting.

It all starts with resigning Buxton. Then our core position players will be: Buxton, Kiriloff, Lewis, Martin, Arraez, Polanco, Garver/Jeffers/Rortvedt, Urbina, and hopefully Larnach. Maybe Sano and/or Rooker stick around (can either hit 0.250 with 35 HRs and 100 RBIs primarily as a DH?). Donaldson and Kepler get moved. Importantly, other than Buxton, this group as a whole is really inexpensive.

The staff by then should have at least three, and likely four, league minimum starters, with several others available when injuries occur.  The list of possibilities include: Balazovic, SWR, Duran, Ryan, Canterino, Winder, Sands, Strotman, Colina, Vallimont, Ober, Jax, and Dobnak.  That’s 13 names - who am I missing?  In the perfect world, we get 5-6 #2-4s out of this group and several competent relievers.

After moving Donaldson and Kepler (and possibly Sano), we then spend the ample cash on hand for a shutdown pen, one lead (#1 or #2) veteran starter (dare I suggest Berrios), and maybe a veteran position player.  We’d have the money.
 

This is a team which would have a serious 2-3 year window. Let’s play the rookies in 2022 and get ready for a fun ride multi year ride in 2023.

Correction. I meant Miranda - not Urbina. Oops 

Martin and Lewis will hopefully reveal a less turbulent brilliance together than that other namesake partnership (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_and_Lewis)..

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm baffled at the Lewis ranking. He's never shown the ability to hit, and it's not clear he's a SS.  One of his best attributes is speed, and he just had knee surgery. I don't think he's even in the top five for me, until he shows he can hit. 

I really want to be wrong....btw, everyone here ripped the Greene choice street he was hurt.... Who is destroying AAA right now? Take the upside pitching, because you'll never sign it. 

Don't forget its Lewis and Enlow vs other top picks in that draft.  Lewis was willing to take a discount so we could sign Emlow and keep him from going to college too.

10 minutes ago, Matt Braun said:

I especially love the annoying combo he would make if Luis Arráez hit lead-off. The starter might have to throw 15 pitchers before he even sees the #3 hitter. 

Imagining  Miranda in the mix and doing the Vince McMahon escalating reactions meme.

43 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm baffled at the Lewis ranking. He's never shown the ability to hit, and it's not clear he's a SS.  One of his best attributes is speed, and he just had knee surgery. I don't think he's even in the top five for me, until he shows he can hit. 

I really want to be wrong....btw, everyone here ripped the Greene choice once he was hurt.... Who is destroying AAA right now? Take the upside pitching, because you'll never sign it. 

This!  Please take a look back at his SO/BB ratio and his OPS from his last full season playing (in A mind you). Since then, he has not played in 2 years (AFL does not take precendence over a full season as mentioned previously on this thread). He is not in my top five and is actually behind Miranda as well so make that outside my top 6.

His position could change based on performance like all the prospects, but with our current data there is no way he is the #1 prospect of the organization.

I sincerely hope he returns to the #1 ranking in the future, but he's absolutely not that now.

Matt Braun...I love your assessments.  However, Rocco would have to smart enough, or willing to hit Arraez leadoff CONSISTENTLY and then also smart enough (or willing) to see Martin as the perfect #2.  I'm fully on board with that.  I just don't think Rocco has "gotten there" yet, and may never do so.

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Not true. They could have paid Lewis top dollar and still signed enlow. They just saved money. They may have suffered a minor penalty, but it was in the range of acceptable. Also, I'd trade both of them for Greene right now, easy. I'd even throw in Rooker.

I think we signed a few other players for overslot values as well.  as I remember (not backed up by actual facts) but I think the Twins spent their bonus pool that draft.  I know they didnt get penalized.  I think there were some doubts on Greene signing with us as well.  I could be wrong too.  But I do remember the discussion on the board here and the consensus was they were likely a package deal meaning they used the discount to sign Enlow giving us essentially 2 first round talents.  and the other consensus was there was not that much difference in separation in the top 5 or 6 in the draft either.  Thus the discount and the ability to sign Enlow away from school was hailed as a genius move at the time.

35 minutes ago, Brandon said:

I think we signed a few other players for overslot values as well.  as I remember (not backed up by actual facts) but I think the Twins spent their bonus pool that draft.  I know they didnt get penalized.  I think there were some doubts on Greene signing with us as well.  I could be wrong too.  But I do remember the discussion on the board here and the consensus was they were likely a package deal meaning they used the discount to sign Enlow giving us essentially 2 first round talents.  and the other consensus was there was not that much difference in separation in the top 5 or 6 in the draft either.  Thus the discount and the ability to sign Enlow away from school was hailed as a genius move at the time.

 

He wanted to go to San Diego but Cincinatti took him any way and got him to sign on the dotted line.  So the Twins could have done the same but he was not going to offer a discount and they were coming off of a high school pitcher pick that didn't turn out in Stewart.  I can see why they were reluctant and went the safe route with a bat instead.  They could have gone with several other pitchers but it is telling that they went with a 5 tool talent instead.  They knew no other pitcher they picked could have the ceiling of Greene but had to hope Enlow would still end up a mid rotation piece and must have felt at the time Leech could be another Balazovich as well.  With Royce wisely willing to take a discount as he could have fallen to number 5 they must have felt more bites at the apple were better than putting all the apples in on Greene. 

Still time to see how things work out but Leech looks like a reliever if he can even make it.  Rooker looks incredibly flawed and teetering on the brink of not making it.  Enlow is having TJ and we have no idea how he will be once he returns and Lewis has had trouble staying healthy and his bat is suspect until he proves otherwise. So things don't look good right now.

Greene looks like the dominant pitcher he was always supposed to be but he isn't in the majors yet and he could still have arm problems in the future.  I don't see either side with an advantage yet but would have to give the edge to Cincinnati as of right now today. 

9 hours ago, beckmt said:

Exciting, Twins in my mind are back to having a top 5 farm system, while still having decent position players in the majors.  Offseason should be tough as 40 man decisions, plus moving some players to make room with the big club will keep things interesting.

What has a top 5 farm system achieved?

5 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

The 2023 Twins should be exciting.

It all starts with resigning Buxton. Then our core position players will be: Buxton, Kiriloff, Lewis, Martin, Arraez, Polanco, Garver/Jeffers/Rortvedt, Urbina, and hopefully Larnach. Maybe Sano and/or Rooker stick around (can either hit 0.250 with 35 HRs and 100 RBIs primarily as a DH?). Donaldson and Kepler get moved. Importantly, other than Buxton, this group as a whole is really inexpensive.

The staff by then should have at least three, and likely four, league minimum starters, with several others available when injuries occur.  The list of possibilities include: Balazovic, SWR, Duran, Ryan, Canterino, Winder, Sands, Strotman, Colina, Vallimont, Ober, Jax, and Dobnak.  That’s 13 names - who am I missing?  In the perfect world, we get 5-6 #2-4s out of this group and several competent relievers.

After moving Donaldson and Kepler (and possibly Sano), we then spend the ample cash on hand for a shutdown pen, one lead (#1 or #2) veteran starter (dare I suggest Berrios), and maybe a veteran position player.  We’d have the money.
 

This is a team which would have a serious 2-3 year window. Let’s play the rookies in 2022 and get ready for a fun ride multi year ride in 2023.

I will have 2 of what you had

5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm baffled at the Lewis ranking. He's never shown the ability to hit, and it's not clear he's a SS.  One of his best attributes is speed, and he just had knee surgery. I don't think he's even in the top five for me, until he shows he can hit. 

I really want to be wrong....btw, everyone here ripped the Greene choice once he was hurt.... Who is destroying AAA right now? Take the upside pitching, because you'll never sign it. 

No question that Lewis brings uncertainty both at SS and to a much lesser extent, with his hitting skill development (he has the hit tool). But let's not forget that he was regarded by many experts to be in the same category as all four of the stud pitchers, Greene, Gore, McKay, and Wright, with Wright thought to be the surest thing among the pitchers. You wanted Gore, not Greene back then. You may end up having guessed right. Fangraphs gives Gore and Lewis a 60FV, and Hunter will surely get an upgrade from his 50 FV soon. But remember, many draft analysts thought Brendan McKay was a better bet than Greene or Gore-it was that close of a call,

I argued at the time that the chances were very very good that at least one, and quite possibly two of those four pitchers would end up better than Lewis. The problem? Guessing which one. The jury hasn't reach a verdict yet. Greene poses injury risk that could derail his career permanently. Gore is struggling with command of both his breaking pitches and is no longer universally regarded as a surefire ace. Kyle Wright and Brendan McKay have negative WAR so far. Wright has been shipped back to the minors after 6 pathetic innings in 2021.

So yes, with the luxury of new information, one can argue that Greene has a higher ceiling than Lewis, but the opposite argument has equal merit IMO. Wouldn't it be interesting to hear an honest take from the FO?

I think your Enlow take is possibly slightly flawed, because, even though they maybe ended up not needing to, they easily could have been out of room to pull off the Enlow signing had they spent $7M instead of $6M by taking Gore, McKay, or Greene. None of those guys was exactly enamored with the prospect of being a Twin, and maybe their agents would have been encouraged to take a harder line, who knows.

Again, it's my guess that at least one of those three will be a better player than Lewis. Your guess was once Gore, and now it's Greene, both excellent guesses, but guesses just the same, which I think was at the heart of the Twin's rationale for drafting Lewis, probably still the surest bet. Again, currently, Fangraphs has Lewis and Gore at 60FV, Greene at 50FV, and McKay down to 40+ with five pitchers in the loaded TBR system ranked higher.

Bottom line: it's not all that baffling that Lewis and Martin are viewed as prospect equals and ahead of Balazovich, Duran, SWR, or anyone else.

I'm also of the opinion Lewis is overrated right now. Poor pitch recognition led to a poor walk rate. Awkward, slow and huge leg kick contributed to the poor strikeout rate. Miserable defense at SS in 2019. To top it off, a complete tear of his ACL which has a risk of robbing Lewis of some of his elite speed and quickness needed for shortstop/center field. By all accounts Lewis has elite athleticism and a fantastic work ethic and attitude, but all the issues plus 2 years of no regular competitive play is a lot to overcome. Lewis isn't going to have much time to get to work next year to start the season and if he's not significantly improved by mid season at AA, he could fall out of the top 10.

1. Martin
2. Woods-Richardson
3. Balazovic - 3 pitches limits his ceiling
4. Lewis
5. Duran - Until Duran gets some control and is able to prove his curve and change work, he's likely a pullpen arm. I'd consider him a less talented version of Graterol right now.

6 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Not true. They could have paid Lewis top dollar and still signed enlow. They just saved money. They may have suffered a minor penalty, but it was in the range of acceptable. Also, I'd trade both of them for Greene right now, easy. I'd even throw in Rooker.

I am interested in how this post ages.  You would trade Lewis, Rooker and Enlow for Greene.  I have no idea how it ends but look forward to seeing 

8 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm baffled at the Lewis ranking. He's never shown the ability to hit, and it's not clear he's a SS.  One of his best attributes is speed, and he just had knee surgery. I don't think he's even in the top five for me, until he shows he can hit. 

I really want to be wrong....btw, everyone here ripped the Greene choice once he was hurt.... Who is destroying AAA right now? Take the upside pitching, because you'll never sign it. 

Never? He hit just fine in his first professional season in rookie/low-A in 2017, hit very well in 2018 while spending time at both Cedar Rapids and Ft. Myers. He took a step back at the plate in 2019, but still played well enough to earn a promotion to AA, where he maintained about the same performance despite being very young for the level. Then he ripped the cover off the ball in the AFL. (If you're positive on Lewis, then it's a sign of good development. If you're down on Lewis, then the AFL means nothing. YMMV.) No stats to say how he developed as a hitter in 2020 and then got hurt and hasn't played in 2021.

I'd say the jury is most definitely out on what kind of hitter he is, but it's simply wrong to say he's never shown the ability to hit in his professional career.

I put him below Martin for sure (I'm higher on him than some, I know), and would probably push him below Balazovic (who I really like), but he's still a very talented prospect with huge upside.

If all five of these guys open 2023 with the team, I will be happy.

Lewis has a road to climb, actually a mountain. Him and Duran just need the playing time against experienced folks. Martin will be joining him there. Balazovic will start the season there and graduate to the Twins, one hopes. Woods-Richardson will be pushed at Wichita to move to AAA. 

Quit being down on Lewis. He is only 22. As is Martin. One played collegiate level, one went thru the ranks of minor league ball, which is a learning experience of its own.

Fun he we go from a season of Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe in the wings to instead have them replaced by Barnes, Ober and Jax with Sands, Ryan, Strotman, Winder in the wings...and Duran and Balazovic still in the promised prospect camp. And we also have Colina and Enlow in the near mix. Jeez. Talk about prospects keeping us from going out and spending money on a legit arm!

9 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Not true. They could have paid Lewis top dollar and still signed enlow. They just saved money. They may have suffered a minor penalty, but it was in the range of acceptable. Also, I'd trade both of them for Greene right now, easy. I'd even throw in Rooker.

Lewis is fine.  He'll be fine, and yes... he has hit and will hit.

(Just to be transparent Mike, I'm only joking around )

5 hours ago, birdwatcher said:

...even though they maybe ended up not needing to, they easily could have been out of room to pull off the Enlow signing had they spent $7M instead of $6M by taking Gore, McKay, or Greene. None of those guys was exactly enamored with the prospect of being a Twin, and maybe their agents would have been encouraged to take a harder line, who knows.

I thought the rumor that year was that Greene wanted to go to Minnesota or San Diego but not Cincinnati.

But that could be that he wanted to go to San Diego for the organization and/or location (being from southern Cali) or Minnesota for the cachet of going 1-1, I suppose... so maybe the point remains that he would have taken full slot to sign.