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  • Twins Feel Prospect Eddie Rosario Close to Major League Ready


    Parker Hageman

    When Mike Radcliff returned from Arizona he was hopeful with what he had seen from Eddie Rosario.

    Among the organization’s prospects playing for the Salt River Rafters in the Arizona Fall League was the recently rehabilitated Rosario. The 23-year-old had served a fifty game suspension due to a failed marijuana test -- his second such offense. In the grand scheme, with a nation heading towards increasing tolerance and two major league cities allowing use of the recreational drug, it appeared less of a concern than the use of performance enhancing drugs to inflate his numbers. Nevertheless, rules were rules and Rosario had broken them. Twice.

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    The suspension could not have come at a worse point along his development timeline. Rosario was starting to gain attention as a hitter and, after a line drive that caught him in the face and required plates to be inserted in 2012, he already needed to play catch up. Beyond the lost time due to the injury, the Twins were trying to see if his path to the majors could be accelerated by moving to second base -- another hurdle.

    “Losing 50 games, that’s a huge setback,” general manager Terry Ryan told the Minneapolis Star Tribune at the time of his suspension. “That’s a lot of development time, a lot of learning that he’ll miss. It sets back his progression going up to the big leagues.”

    When he returned in 2014, based on his numbers and reports from scouts, his time away from the game appeared to stunt his development. Shifted back to the outfield because of the emergence of Brian Dozier at second, Rosario struggled to square the ball as frequently as he did in the past. He finished the season with the worst line of his career, turning in a .243/.286/.387 mark between High-A and Double-A. With the New Britain Rock Cats in June, Baseball Prospectus’ scouts reported he was a “at first player” and believed that he was “not likely to stick as long-term regular” after watching him for two games. They also questioned his hustle. In July another member of the Baseball Prospectus’ team, Jason Parks, concluded that “[w]ith his bat control and bat speed, he could really develop into a good hitter if he works the gaps and takes advantage of his strengths instead playing into his weaknesses. He’s a tweener for me right now, more a hit tool/speed type than a complete player.”

     

    Recognizing the need to get one of their more advanced prospects additional at-bats, Rosario was sent to the Arizona Fall League. In the desert -- while wearing the obsolete Twins pinstripe uniform and facing the game’s top prospect talent -- he started to hit again. The same type that earned him the reputation as one of the best hitters for average.

     

    Perhaps it was clicking at the right time or just a burst of small-sample size magic but the Twins’ Vice President of Player Personnel says that it may be due to re-engaging with the game.

     

    “I think the biggest thing is that he’s gone through a year of turmoil,” Radcliff said reflecting on Rosario’s offensive success in Arizona. “A year ago today it wasn’t good for him. He had a lot of things going on that weren’t good. Most of that is in the rearview mirror now and he has a different frame of mind. He concentrates and focuses on baseball and that’s allowed him to get back on track.”

     

    Where the regular season showed Rosario trying to do too much at the plate and unnecessarily swinging for the fences, the fall league was a profile of a more collected hitter. Many of the same points that have been raised about his swing still exist -- tons of pre-swing hand movement, stepping open with his front foot on his stride, drops his back shoulder at times, chases stuff down in the zone and so on -- but the positive aspects were on display as well. Rosario possesses extremely quick hands and, once he gets to his load point, he strikes like a cobra. The open stride which seemingly leaves him susceptible to the outer-half has not affected him as he covers the zone surprisingly well, keeping his front hip closed.

     

    A lot of the aforementioned traits can be seen in this clip from the AFL Championship Game:

     

    http://i.imgur.com/bopEWKq.gif

    The excessive hand movement. The front foot stride. Staying closed. Quick hands. Zone coverage.

     

    Yes, he pulls the ball too often instead of going with the pitch while his selection and patience will wreak havoc on his on-base percentage. As an aggressive hitter, he is unlikely to put up robust walk totals. He elevates too many fly balls with too little power, a factor that will likely impact his major league average, yet if you watched the final AFL game Rosario went 4-for-5 and hit everything on the screws. No lofted fly balls, these were hard, smashed line drives. Even the out he made was a shot to right field.

     

    “He’s refocused, he’s reenergized, he understands who he is now and where he is at and what his future is,” Radcliff said. “He got suspended, it took him a while to clean all that stuff up and play during the summer months. I think there is probably hope involved because there was a lot that has gone on in the last year and a half. I think that we hope that what we saw in the last 100 at-bats was more indicative of what is ahead for him that what we saw in those at-bats during the summer.”

     

    Performance at the plate is one thing, in the field is another.

     

    When creating his top 25 prospect from the Arizona Fall League list, MLB.com columnist Jim Callis noted that Rosario’s positional unknown looms as a big question mark. Radcliff and the Twins see that differently. Rosario has shown the ability to play anywhere at least at an adequate level, providing flexibility. “Versatility is a good thing when you are trying to break into a 25-man roster,” Radcliff said.

     

    But the clear vacancy right now is in left field for the Twins and Rosario has seen plenty of time in that area of the outfield. Is it possible he could be an option for 2015?

     

    “He can do a lot of things, he’s an advanced hitter for his experience level and where he is from,” said Radcliff. “He’s right on the cusp of being a good hitter, his power is probably down the road. All the little things: base-running, stolen bases, arm accuracy, technique, angles, routes in the outfield, those things progress, improve and get better along the way. Is he about ready to impact the major leagues? Yeah, I’d think most of us would agree with that. What role and how quick, that will all be determined in the coming months. He’s close, he’s right there on the edge.”

     

    Added to the team's 40-man roster on Thursday, when summarizing Rosario’s chances of reaching the highest level in the near future, Radcliff seemed to invoke personal responsibility for the talented 23-year-old. Possibly hinting at both his on and off the field performance: “It’s all up to him now.”

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    I read this yesterday and they seemed less then enthusastic about Rosario. Time will tell though.

     

    Read the link and I think it's a good description of his mechanics. Almost anyone with any scouting acumen can see that with his swing.

     

    There is an odd echo effect regarding his prospect write-ups this season. Everyone seems to share the same things and raise the same questions. Some of it feels based on his poor performance during the regular season. Some are valid, some seem just to echo what every other report has said. 

     

    I don't know if I feel like he is an everyday player at this point either. I am interested to see if he can do some hitting at AAA. While people feel his performance in the regular season was down because of the time off, I also wonder if it had to do with teams seeing him again, pitching him differently and exposing his flaws. In the fall league, pitchers are out there working on things sort of like spring training. 

     

    I'm intrigued by his stick but his lack of patience is a detriment to his overall numbers. 

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    I'm intrigued by his stick but his lack of patience is a detriment to his overall numbers. 

     

    The troubling thing is that this seems to be the theme with nearly every prospect the Twins have called up in the last year, and will be the same for almost all of them called up in the near future.

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    The troubling thing is that this seems to be the theme with nearly every prospect the Twins have called up in the last year, and will be the same for almost all of them called up in the near future.

     

    Its a problem for every organization. My buddy is a Cubs fan and the top prospects (Baez especially) have trouble taking walks. Luckily, our top two prospects realize the value in taking a walk.

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    Parker, any thoughts on Rosario's outfield defense (range, instincts, etc.)? I know he doesn't have Buxton-level D, but is he at Hicks's level? He would undoubtedly be an improvement on Willingham, Colabello, or Parmalee, but by how much? It seems to me that if his defense is well above average for corner outfield, then maybe we can live with his lack of power and OBP, at least in the short run until someone (Kepler, Walker?) with more power but still decent D is ready to replace him.

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    Its a problem for every organization. My buddy is a Cubs fan and the top prospects (Baez especially) have trouble taking walks. Luckily, our top two prospects realize the value in taking a walk.

     

     

    Yup. Here is a great read from Brian Macpherson on the struggles of prospects (and why it might be a good thing): http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20141118-as-prospects-struggle-across-baseball-players-mentality-matters-more-than-ever.ece

     

    Parker, any thoughts on Rosario's outfield defense (range, instincts, etc.)? I know he doesn't have Buxton-level D, but is he at Hicks's level?

     

     

    Reports are that he has the speed to be a good coverage corner outfield but his arm strength is lacking (not a problem as much in LF). As Radcliff said, he's got to get better on route, angles and anticipation. 

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    Please, please don't rush him before he's ready. It's depressing to watch a guy with talent fail to develop it in the majors, squanding his potential, and years of service time. Seen that too many times before. Give him a year at AAA and make him improve to earn a promotion. Clean up his swing, improve his plate discipline, whatever it takes.

     

    The most depressing thing about that fangraphs scouting report was not that he has little power, doesn't walk, and is only an average fielder. While acknowledging his fantastic hand-eye coordination and plate coverage, they say his mindless pulling of outside pitches is creating frequent ground balls, and if he doesn't get smarter, he's doomed. They say he's getting away with a lot of failed pull attempts as groundballs squeak through the infield, but in mlb, they'll just shift to close the hole in the infield, and they'll all be outs. 

     

    What is the downside of making a player earn his promotion by fixing flaws? As far as I can see, it's win-win. The player greatly improves his skills, career numbers and earnings. The team avoids wasting a year of service time on a dingbat kid, but instead gets the same number of years from a more mature, superior player. Everyone's happy.

     

    The only reason to rush him is to make the 2014 more exciting. Just like we did with Hicks, Gomez, Young, etc. Do fans really want to watch tantalizing potential be frittered away? Or would they rather watch you build a good team.

     

    Would Arcia's OBP be better if he'd spent a solid year in AAA instead of swinging for the seats for two years of partial duty? Who knows. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt on that. Personally I'd err on the side of focusing on improvement in the minors during their free years in exchange for production in the majors during their mature years. It's certainly possible Arcia is learning more against major league pitching. But it's hard to argue that Hicks, Young, and Gomez benefited by being rushed to the majors. I think in all those cases the driving force was PR.

     

    Hicks had to play to justify trading Revere and Span. They couldn't trade both and just leave a gaping hole. The narrative had to be, he's too exciting and too ready to get stuck in the minors. That was clearly wrong.

     

    Young couldn't be an unpolished, undisciplined hitter with great potential; he had to be a budding star that justified losing Garza and Bartlett during what turned out to be a near-playoff year.

     

    Gomez couldn't be sent to the minors, even though he clearly needed seasoning, or they'd have nothing to show for the Santana trade.

     

    In all those cases, the results were disastrous. In this case, the PR debacle is four 90-loss seasons. Will they make the same short-sighted decision again?

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    The troubling thing is that this seems to be the theme with nearly every prospect the Twins have called up in the last year, and will be the same for almost all of them called up in the near future.

    Hicks has no patience  you are correct. 

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    It will be very interesting to see how he handles better pitching, say AAA.  That swing has some serious issues and would be exploited in the majors.  The quick hands and eye hand coordination are certainly positive traits but it is easy to see why some people have questions.

     

    I also have to comment on the marijuana suspensions.  It matters not what our personal opinions of MJ are or how many states have legalized it.  The fact that he was busted twice tells me that he either has an addiction problem or does whatever he wants, regardless of the rules.  Both are serious issues for a prospect.

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    I'm intrigued by his stick but his lack of patience is a detriment to his overall numbers. 

    You want a batter to be aggressive.  See a pitch you can handle and give it a good hard whack.  Hits are better than walks.

     

    As the hitter goes up the chain, and eventually reaches the majors, those pitches he can handle become fewer and fewer per game.  The question is whether he gives in and swings anyway, or takes more pitches.   Walks are far far better than outs.

     

    The hittable pitches he saw in the AFL don't tell us much on this aspect.  I wouldn't have wanted him to take too many of those - unless, early in the count, he wasn't waiting for pitches he could try to drive over the fence or at least into the gap. 

     

    I wouldn't want him to swing at the all the stuff he'll see in 2015, either - it would be nice for those walk totals to go up.  Wait and see, I guess.

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    That swing is awful noisy, his hands travel all around in his load.  Last year Santana really surprised me having so much success so early because he had some of these same knocks against him, doesn't take a walk, overly aggressive, questionable if hes ready on defense.  He made the jump seamlessly because of his super polished swing and Rosario doesn't have that going for him.  Make him earn it in AAA, I like that they are being more aggressive with prospects (position guys anyway) but some need the AAA time. 

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    I worry a little that his athleticism will only take him so far and make him susceptible to funks like he experienced during the regular season.  While he does a good job keeping his hands back, his back foot is slipping and his body is too far out front.  

     

    I would like to see his home run from the AFL championship game to see if he did a better job keeping his weight back. 

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    I'm a fan of Rosario.  I know I'm in the minority, but I would like him to be in LF and play thru his inexperence. . . . ala Vargas and Santana. . .I think that is the best situation for him.

     

    As the article points out, he's not a "picture perfect" swing at the plate.. . his hands get back a little late.  However, some of the best hitters in the history of baseball have not been "picture perfect" . . Tony Gwynn, etc.  The great hitters will perfect their inadequicies on their own.

     

    He has a season of hitting over .300 in the Puerto Rican WL and that is not easy to do.  Puerto Rico thought enough of him to place him on their WBC National Team.

     

    I don't expect the Twins to challenge next year so I would like to see the season be one where we find out some things about our "almost ready for prime time" guys.(Rosario, Meyer, May)  After a year of that we will know weather to fish or cut bair for 2016.

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    I think it is interesting that he is close, but Meyer was not last year.....which would you rather have, Meyer last year, or Rosario right now?

     

    I don't get the comparison... They're two separate players with their own flaws and features.

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    I worry a little that his athleticism will only take him so far and make him susceptible to funks like he experienced during the regular season.  While he does a good job keeping his hands back, his back foot is slipping and his body is too far out front.  

     

    I would like to see his home run from the AFL championship game to see if he did a better job keeping his weight back. 

     

    He just got 95-96 on the inside part of the plate and crushed it. Don't have to worry about staying back on that.

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    I'd be ok with him in LF to start, if they think he's close. I have no issue with him learning here, I fondly recall the Twins youngsters learning in the mid-80s......

     

    Plus, the instructors that know him best are on our major league coaching staff right now.  Molitor and Hernandez worked with Rosario in the minors and/or minor league spring training. No reason they can't work with him at Target Field.

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    What is the downside of making a player earn his promotion by fixing flaws? As far as I can see, it's win-win. The player greatly improves his skills, career numbers and earnings. The team avoids wasting a year of service time on a dingbat kid, but instead gets the same number of years from a more mature, superior player. Everyone's happy.

     

    There is no downside to that. With the Twins having lost so many games in the last four years, we all want change, whether it's free agents or prospects. But each kid is different. Like you said, some are more mature than others. Different flaws have to be handled differently too.

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    I don't get the comparison... They're two separate players with their own flaws and features.

     

    i'd say Meyer is more MLB ready, last year, then Rosario is right now....that wasn't obvious in my statement? Which do you think is more MLB ready, Meyer last year, or Rosario right now? that was clearly the post, wasn't it?

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    There is no downside to that. With the Twins having lost so many games in the last four years, we all want change, whether it's free agents or prospects. But each kid is different. Like you said, some are more mature than others. Different flaws have to be handled differently too.

    There is a downside. . .if we think we can contend in 2016 and Rosario is the LF, then I would rather have him there with a year of experience instead of being a rookie that year.

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    His suspension is a big red flag for me - is this the behavior of someone "battling his tail off" to be the best ball player he can be? Nope.

     

    Floating on talent isn't a characteristic upon which to build a great MLB career.

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    I have wondered what "ready" means. No one can truly get ready to hit major league pitching by hitting minor league pitching. Struggle and adjustment are the norm for almost every player in their first few full years.

     

    Perhaps it means ready to take on the next challenge. In this sense, Arcia was ready to take on the next challenge as he came up. Rosario really needs to meet the challenge of AA or AAA first. The success in the AFL was a good start. Match that with similar performance over 50 games in AAA and he should be ready to struggle with the challenge major league pitching. I would give Buxton or Sano the same opportunity if they dominate the first few months in AAA or AAA next year.

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    I'm not ready to hand Rosario the LF job. He did well in 100 ABs at the AFL after doing poorly in the equivalent of a full season in AA. Hicks has been better in AA FWIW, and while that isn't a predictor of future performance, giving him the job out of ST is a recipe for disaster. If they are convinced that he's the LF of the future, fine, go get a 1 year stop gap and let Rosario develop in AA/AAA. He can get a cup of coffee for an occasional DL stint, but I don't want to be counting on him next season.

    As for me, I think he has more value as a CF or a 2B. I'd probably pursue Kemp and let Rosario force me into trading from strength to address a weakness. Maybe I'm wrong, but I tend to think that a LF return on a Rosario trade (if he played 2B or CF) would be better than the LF that Rosario would be.

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    Rosario only has value at 2B and CF if he can play adequate defense at those spots. Simply playing him there doesn't give him value. When the Rafters lost Buxton, they didn't move Eddie to CF. He continued to play LF and DH for them.

     

    I hope the Twins would have been smart enough to keep him in CF early in his career if they felt he could be an average defender at the spot. Good CFs are more valuable than good 2Bs. I realize they had Span, Revere and Hunter in front of him and they had a major league need at 2B. They must have realized that Rookie Ball is a long way from the majors. Lots of things can happen to a position in between. You don't make that position shift based on a perceived major league need 4-5 years down the road. You make it based on assessment of the young player's skills.

     

    The assessment at the time appears correct. He probably didn't show the glove potential to be a regular CF. He would need a pretty good bat to be a regular LF. His bat could play at 2B. It was worth a shot in the A Ball. It didn't work out and now he needs to bring the bat to LF to be a regular.

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    Besides 12-13 when he was playing 2B, Rosario has played more games in CF than any other position. In his career, he's played 169 games in CF and only 40 games in the corner. I would anticipate that he'll continue to play CF, unless he's in the same OF as Buxton. Not sure why the Rafters didn't play him there after Buxton left.

     

    Rosario only has value at 2B and CF if he can play adequate defense at those spots. Simply playing him there doesn't give him value. When the Rafters lost Buxton, they didn't move Eddie to CF. He continued to play LF and DH for them.

    I hope the Twins would have been smart enough to keep him in CF early in his career if they felt he could be an average defender at the spot. Good CFs are more valuable than good 2Bs. 

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    Do not think of him as a center fielder, but Twins should give him a real chance to win a starting job out of spring training.  Would rather do that than sign a FA outfielder just to play and block all the youngsters coming up.  If it does not all work out, you have the same option to sign an outfielder next winter.

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