Twins Minor League Report (8/4): Sabato Blasts, Martin’s Heroics

I have not been impressed with Sabato so I am happy to see him have a good night with the bat.  Nice to see so many on the prospect list playing and hitting yesterday.  

Has Sabato finally found his stroke? His eye at the plate is good so if he can just but the strike outs down to the mid 25% level he should be OK.  He has a had a very tough start would nice to see him go on a tear so we can cheer him on again.

Nice to see the new guy continue to hit and hit in clutch situations.  Martin is as advertised.  

Wichita is starting to have quite the lineup with almost everyone is around the 800 OPS mark.  Pretty much every guy and punch one out and everyone is a tough out right now.  If they get a bit better pitching they could be unstoppable.

That swing of Marten looks pretty nice.  No his power will not be there, unless he changes it up, but he will not strike out much and hit a ton of line drives.  Some say he may be leadoff guy, with that swing I would put him in 2-hole and do a ton of hit and runs. 

Will double down on Mike's comment above about Sabato.  I wasn't a fan of the pick last summer and have thought that most ranking services, TD included, have him ranked way, way too high.  With that said, it was good to see him get two home runs yesterday.  It caused me to go look at his splits for the year, which I found support my disappointment in his season.  Yes, he is off to a great start in August, but it is only a couple games.  His average in July wasn't as bad as May, but it was again well under .200.  His strikeouts remained close to 40% in both June and July after being 50% in May.  And what was most surprising, in his first three months in low-A ball he hit only four home runs, 4.  It was great seeing him have a big day yesterday, but the questions remain...at least for me.

Talked about how well Rortvedt has been hitting in St. Paul yesterday.  Well, today it is Celestino who had a HUGE night last night.  Seems that being thrown into the MLB grinder before they were ready may eventually pay dividends for both as both are crushing AAA pitching, albeit in a smallish sample.

And so excited about the big night and hit by Martin, including no errors.  Hopefully, John will write something about his first hand observations of this young man.  Speaking of last week's trades, did everyone see that Happ had a very solid start for the Cards yesterday, two runs over five innings?  Also interesting seeing the Twins pick up another waiver claim, Garza.  Together with the kid last week it appears part of their strategy for next year is to add several young relievers over the next couple months,  Will give them the opportunity to work with them to see if any are likely fits for next year's bullpen.  I guess it helps being near the worst record in baseball when looking at the daily waiver wire, eh?

I read the new top fifty ESPN prospect list - no Twins on it.  Martin and Lewis were listed in those who were discussed but did not make the list so they will be top 100.  I am always interested in what writers outside MN have to say about our players - just for perspective.  

I would imagine it is hard for them and our writers to continue to list Royce Lewis as number one after losing two years.  His return will be fascinating. 

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I have not been impressed with Sabato so I am happy to see him have a good night with the bat.  Nice to see so many on the prospect list playing and hitting yesterday.  

Sabato very much has been a bust so far.  He was draft to be a power hitter and that is basically it.  To be at 6 HR, 2 in the last day, that is not good.  It could be the league, which is known to be not a power hitting league, the wood bats, or just getting settled into pro ball.  When I look at his numbers of decent OBP but terrible average and slugging it also makes me wonder about how he is being pitched and what his approach is like.  Is he not getting much to hit because of his fear of power, or is he being too patient letting pitches he could hit go by.  I am not ready to give up on him, but if he has a similar season next year he will be on the outside looking in as we have too many of his type ahead of him right now. 

Louie Varland had his turn skipped, and I feared he was hurt.  Lucky for me, he got pushed back to Friday, and I will just happen to be going to that game.  This Quad Cities team has a tough lineup.  Kansas City definitely has the edge in offense at this level.

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I read the new top fifty ESPN prospect list - no Twins on it.  Martin and Lewis were listed in those who were discussed but did not make the list so they will be top 100.  I am always interested in what writers outside MN have to say about our players - just for perspective.  

I would imagine it is hard for them and our writers to continue to list Royce Lewis as number one after losing two years.  His return will be fascinating. 

Yeah those lists are so subjective I think those guys lose sight of things.  I would put Mirnada's numbers up against anyone they have in their top 50 and say they look like idiots.  He is at the highest level in the Minors and likely out OPS'ing most all of that list.  Those guys like who they like just like we do.

4 minutes ago, Dman said:

Yeah those lists are so subjective I think those guys lose sight of things.  I would put Mirnada's number up against anyone they have they have in their top 50 and say they look like idiots.  He is at the highest level in the Minors and likely out OPS'ing most all of that list.  Those guys like who they like just like we do.

They're still projecting though.  MLB did pretty well in 2016. There are some misses, but there are loads of stars and players who have had good seasons.

https://www.mlb.com/news/2016-top-100-mlb-prospects-list-c301608606

Hopefully, Miranda will be our Matt Olson. ?

19 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

They're still projecting though.  MLB did pretty well in 2016. There are some misses, but there are loads of stars and players who have had good seasons.

https://www.mlb.com/news/2016-top-100-mlb-prospects-list-c301608606

Hopefully, Miranda will be our Matt Olson. ?

It is a very nice list but my point still stands.  Lots of guys outside the top 50 went on to be as good or better than some of the guys inside the top 50.  It is nice to be on that list but it doesn't mean there aren't better players outside that list either.  Like I said they like who they like in whatever order.?

Good to see celestino & rortvedt having success at the plate in AAA. we knew both of them probably weren't ready and only came up because of the plethora of injuries, so it's good to see them playing well at the level they really should have been at most of the year. Hopefully it continues and they can settle in with a good approach at the plate that will be productive in their next stint in MLB. Both have enough defensive upside that they'll be good assets if they can hit even a little,

Miranda's amazing. His breakout might be the best argument for eating some of Josh Donaldson's salary in a deal in the off-season.

Good 2 hit night for Martin, who I like a lot. Looking forward to watching him settle in at AA and get on base basically all day. I suspect they'll do any tinkering with his swing in the off-season (make sure he gets healthy from the hand injury), but I'm not opposed to seeing him control the zone and hit a bajillion singles in his first season in professional baseball at AA. I think rankings that are dropping him fast because they haven't seen power production in half a season of pro baseball are making a mistake and I'm happy to have the Twins reap the benefits.

13 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

By sheer numbers alone, you'd expect lots of guys not in a list of 50 to be as good as those in the list. There are thousands of minor league players.....

My only point was not to panic that we had no one in the top 50 when any of Lewis, Martin, or Miranda certainly could be.  Given Miranda's stats he certainly looks as good as the guys in the top 50 if not better than some.  I can understand not including Lewis as he is such a wild card having not played for so long.  Martin's lack of power is likely going to affect his OPS some so can probably see him just outside the top 50 but like I said if you are still bullish on his skill set he could be in the top 50 as well.  Just depends on who you like or don't like.  There is a ton of talent outside the top 50 and even outside the top 100 and they are not always going to get it right it just seems off when someone is performing as well as Miranda is and he doesn't make the list.

The top 50, top 100 etc prospect lists involve all speculation and guesswork. They're nice for casual fans like me so I can have a much less biased source for information and expectations, but it's not like they're hard set. For example. Baseball Prospectus had the 2015 top 10 Twins, how they ranked in the top 101 in MLB that year and how I see their current / historical mixed value.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/25324/2015-prospects-minnesota-twins-top-10-prospects/

1. Byron Buxton 1 in MLB - Daily MLB player 
2. Miguel Sano 14th in MLB - Borderline MLB talent
3. Alex Meyer 32nd in MLB - Bust
4. Kohl Stewart 54th in MLB - Bust
5. Jose Berrios 75th in MLB - All Star
6. Nick Gordon - Bust
7. Lewis Thorpe - Bust
8. Nick Burdi - Bust
9. Jorge Polanco - All Star
10. Stephen Gonsalves - Bust

The same list from MLB.com listed:

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2015?list=min

1. Buxton - Regular Player
2. Berrios - All Star
3. Jay - Bust
4. Polanco - All Star
5. Gordon - Bust
6. Kepler - Regular Player
7. Stewart - Bust
8. Meyer - Bust
9. Gonsalves - Bust
10. Brett-Walker II - Bust
11. Chargois - Middle Relief?
12. Burdi - Bust
13. Rogers - All Star Closer
14. Thorpe - Bust
15. Cabbage - Bust
16. Blankenhorn - Bust
17. Reed - Bust
18. Turner, Stuart - Bust
19. Harrison, Travis - Bust
20. Romero, Fernano - Bust

The trend is obviously in favor of the lists, but they're hardly absolutes. Prospects at the top of the lists are more likely to be MLB quality and higher quality than players further down, but even players low on the lists can become studs (Taylor Rogers).

4 hours ago, roger said:

Will double down on Mike's comment above about Sabato.  I wasn't a fan of the pick last summer and have thought that most ranking services, TD included, have him ranked way, way too high.  With that said, it was good to see him get two home runs yesterday.  It caused me to go look at his splits for the year, which I found support my disappointment in his season.  Yes, he is off to a great start in August, but it is only a couple games.  His average in July wasn't as bad as May, but it was again well under .200.  His strikeouts remained close to 40% in both June and July after being 50% in May.  And what was most surprising, in his first three months in low-A ball he hit only four home runs, 4.  It was great seeing him have a big day yesterday, but the questions remain...at least for me.

A little nit-picky but you have to use PA as the divisor for K%, not AB.  Sabato has been striking out in the 30-40% range, not 40-50% as you say.  Still not good in the lower levels, and I don't disagree with anything else you've said, but all of those walks affecting the K% calculation have also kept his overall performance from being truly awful.

4 hours ago, Steve Lein said:

He had an hand injury which he appears to be playing through this season, and has been noted to have affected his swing compared to college. I'd say it's a pretty good sign he's still hitting this well (average wise) if it is.

Time will tell!

If you look at his numbers per month, he improved a ton each month.  Last month he had an OBP of .500.  That is insane for a month.  He walked more than struck out last month too.  I am rather impressed with the little I know of the kid so far. 

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

The top 50, top 100 etc prospect lists involve all speculation and guesswork. They're nice for casual fans like me so I can have a much less biased source for information and expectations, but it's not like they're hard set. For example. Baseball Prospectus had the 2015 top 10 Twins, how they ranked in the top 101 in MLB that year and how I see their current / historical mixed value.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/25324/2015-prospects-minnesota-twins-top-10-prospects/

1. Byron Buxton 1 in MLB - Daily MLB player 
2. Miguel Sano 14th in MLB - Borderline MLB talent
3. Alex Meyer 32nd in MLB - Bust
4. Kohl Stewart 54th in MLB - Bust
5. Jose Berrios 75th in MLB - All Star
6. Nick Gordon - Bust
7. Lewis Thorpe - Bust
8. Nick Burdi - Bust
9. Jorge Polanco - All Star
10. Stephen Gonsalves - Bust

The same list from MLB.com listed:

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2015?list=min

1. Buxton - Regular Player
2. Berrios - All Star
3. Jay - Bust
4. Polanco - All Star
5. Gordon - Bust
6. Kepler - Regular Player
7. Stewart - Bust
8. Meyer - Bust
9. Gonsalves - Bust
10. Brett-Walker II - Bust
11. Chargois - Middle Relief?
12. Burdi - Bust
13. Rogers - All Star Closer
14. Thorpe - Bust
15. Cabbage - Bust
16. Blankenhorn - Bust
17. Reed - Bust
18. Turner, Stuart - Bust
19. Harrison, Travis - Bust
20. Romero, Fernano - Bust

The trend is obviously in favor of the lists, but they're hardly absolutes. Prospects at the top of the lists are more likely to be MLB quality and higher quality than players further down, but even players low on the lists can become studs (Taylor Rogers).

Little early in careers to say Gordon, Blackenhorn, and Thorp as "busts".  They have not contributed regular to a MLB lineup yet, but still young enough to have some regular seasons. 

I hope Gordon gets daily starts at SS now that he is in St Paul. 

6 hours ago, Dman said:

Yeah those lists are so subjective I think those guys lose sight of things.  I would put Mirnada's numbers up against anyone they have in their top 50 and say they look like idiots.  He is at the highest level in the Minors and likely out OPS'ing most all of that list.  Those guys like who they like just like we do.

I do think you need to put the player’s whole minor league career into perspective, as Miranda didn’t hit all that well in the low minors. I could see people calling his 2021 season an outlier if his career doesn’t go well.

5 minutes ago, Danchat said:

I do think you need to put the player’s whole minor league career into perspective, as Miranda didn’t hit all that well in the low minors. I could see people calling his 2021 season an outlier if his career doesn’t go well.

Normally I would agree with you but the pundits already are using the SSS for Martin to prove he won't develop power and have dinged him for it.  Can't have it both ways but I get your point and it is a good one.  It just seems with prospects developing at a fast pace impressions can change quickly. Sabato comes to mind.

7 hours ago, MMMordabito said:

They're still projecting though.  MLB did pretty well in 2016. There are some misses, but there are loads of stars and players who have had good seasons.

https://www.mlb.com/news/2016-top-100-mlb-prospects-list-c301608606

Hopefully, Miranda will be our Matt Olson. ?

They nailed that list, wow!  

1 hour ago, Danchat said:

I do think you need to put the player’s whole minor league career into perspective, as Miranda didn’t hit all that well in the low minors. I could see people calling his 2021 season an outlier if his career doesn’t go well.

I'm not sure I really do agree with this when it comes to AA and AAA stats. I think they get to be fairly projectable at that point it you are looking at the most predictive ones. There is obviously still variance, but particularly focusing on things like K%, BB%, and ISO, there aren't too many huge surprises, at least to the downside.

My top predictor for hitters in the lower levels would be K rate anyway, and taking his whole career into account he's never had an issue there.

I feel pretty comfortable projecting that he'll be at least a solid regular based off of this year. It's just hard to find counterexamples.

11 hours ago, Steve Lein said:

He had an hand injury which he appears to be playing through this season, and has been noted to have affected his swing compared to college. I'd say it's a pretty good sign he's still hitting this well (average wise) if it is.

Time will tell!

Maybe, but he was not projected for much power when he was considered the 2nd best prospect in the draft.