Twins Future Position Analysis: First Base

I think it's time to shift Sano to DH and make room for Kirilloff at 1B.  My understanding is that he's very good defensively there as well.  Perhaps his best position.  That would also take a little pressure off the logjam that is corner outfield.  

15 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Sano has been a conundrum since he first arrived.  I am so sorry he is in the launch era age - if he cared more about hits and OBP he would be so much more valuable 

It's hard to argue Sano cares much about base hits, but he was #30 in all of baseball in walk rate last year (among qualified hitters). He's a very patient hitter and takes a ton of walks.

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

In 2022 Sano would be my full time DH and Josh Donaldson would be my full time 1B. Kirilloff can play LF with Miranda at 3B.

Why not put Miranda at 1B? Donaldson isn't the defender he used to be, but I'd think he's still better than Miranda.

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

They might be about even now but a year from now Donaldson is likely to be worse. Also, 1B is going to be less wear and tear for Donaldson.

In a year I expect Sano to be gone and you can move Donaldson to fulltime DH then, but for this year I don't know why you'd move Donaldson when Miranda was playing 1B last year. According to baseball reference JD has started 1 game in his entire major league career (popped over there in the middle of a game a couple other times). Don't know why you'd move him for a guy that isn't an upgrade at 3B and who played 1B plenty just last year. And I'm not sure 1B is much of a wear and tear saver from 3B. He still has cut duties, has to run to the bag every ground ball, has to bounce off the bag on the pitch when holding a guy on first, has to trail runners to second on doubles, and still has to field grounders. Not sure where the big saving of his legs comes in with a shift across the diamond.

I think we're likely to see Kirilloff and Miranda moved around a bit (when Miranda is in the bigs, no guarantee he's even in Minneapolis the whole year), and Sano and JD will split time at DH. Sano has been pretty clear in the past that he isn't comfortable as a DH and wants to play in the field to keep him in the rhythm of the game. It then comes down to balancing how much being in the field improves his hitting compared to how much his defense hurts the team. I'm guessing JD sees plenty of DH starts this year which would allow Arraez and Miranda to get plenty of 3B starts.

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I have not considered this arrangement. Has Donaldson ever played 1B? 

Baseball reference has him at 18 big league innings at 1B. In the minors in 2008 he played 210 innings at 1B. 32 in 2009. And 14 combined in 2010 and 2011.

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

If he wants to play in the field he needs to start doing it well enough to help the team. He's the worst fielding first baseman on the roster.

That's why I said it's a balance between how much his fielding hurts and how much better of a hitter he is when playing the field. If being a DH only makes him a 90 OPS+ hitter instead of a 110 OPS+ hitter does that outweigh his defense? A 110 OPS+ hitter isn't good enough to take up a roster spot only to DH. A 90 OPS+ hitter REALLY isn't good enough to take up a roster spot only to DH. So are you cutting him and eating his contract? Trading him? Wasting a roster spot on an unusable player?

My point is that there's way more that goes into decisions than "DH Sano, Donaldson to first, Miranda at third." It's well documented that some guys simply can't DH. They don't have what it takes to sit around for 3+ hours and lock in for their 4 trips to the plate and perform night after night. If Sano is one of those people it doesn't just make him the automatic first baseman, but you can't just ignore it, either. Moving Donaldson to a position he hasn't played consistently in over a decade isn't just an automatic smooth transition.

Is Sano's defense at first bad enough to nullify a 20 point swing in OPS+? 10 point swing? That's the question. The idea that every fielder is going to be a positive at their position isn't realistic. The question is how bad can you be before it outweighs the offense you provide. Same question in reverse with Simmons at SS. How bad can his hitting be before it nullifies the defense he provides?