The axiom of being strong up the middle - catcher, SS, CF - has been around along time and is true today as it ever was.  Those are the three key positions, the most important for success.  We look good at catcher if Garver is healthy and Jeffer's bat improves again, but SS is a puzzle we cannot afford to fix in the high end free agent market and hope for our prospects to be ready, and CF is even more important than ever in this fly ball era.  Buxton, when healthy, fills it, but if he is gone we are hurt in the lineup and field.  

I do not know what the contract will be and will not comment on that.  But Celestino and Cave are the back up options right now.

I don't think Cave makes this team out of spring training if Buxton is gone.  This will not be resolved early as I feel Buxton's fate will not be known until a new CBA is in place.  Too many issues for teams that are close  or over the threshold to have a full market.  

Also despite buxton's claim he wants to be here, we don't know what his reps are telling the Twins.  Berrios with his public statements did not want to be.  

Tough position for the front office to be in.  I think they will ride it, because they are not going to get anywhere close to full value for Buxton this winter, but solution would be an extension, but don't know if that will happen.

I agree that they're not retooling.  I'm not sure if they're rebuilding, because I'm not sure what they're trying to build.  If they're going to trade away their good young players as soon as they qualify for high salaries, they're never going to build anything.

Cody, I am handing you a "hammer" because you just nailed it !  There is no realistic scenario to the Twins being competitive if Buxton is traded.  There are dozens of instances where a team lost their best or a couple of their best players and actually over achieved.  The best case in my mind is the post Ken Griffey Jr./Randy Johnson Mariners that won 114 games.  I look back and STILL can't believe it actually happened.  But these Twins are NOT those Mariners and if Buxton is traded it will be a major fail by our illustrious FO  and at that point they should just tear it down and acquire young talent to compete in 2024.  The problem with trading Buxton is that his value has never been lower.  The Twins will get no impact players in a deal.  They just won't.  And trading Buxton should be the end of this FO and a new one can effect the rebuild.

"In six years this front office has inherited a stinker of a team and converted it into a core of players" ...

Just my take, but the current FO does the best that they can to put a team on the field that can play competitive baseball  given their orders from above. The core of the current team was in place when they came, in fact. The previous FO also did what they could given their orders from above. The evidence would suggest that Ryan, etc. faced more restrictions than Falvey. TD needs to pull away from the idea that folks such as Gardenhire, Molitor, Ryan, etc. were inferior in any way to Baldelli, Falvey, etc. Baldelli and Falvey are good baseball people as are the others. The current group has less experience than the former but are learning. The Buxton conversation and the challenges of this offseason will test Falvey. A more important question concerns the view from above Falvey. The Twins cannot make the moves needed if the budget falls below $120 million and it may be set considerably lower. We just don't know. 

The premise of the post of the post is arguably correct. If Buxton goes, there is virtually no way the Twins are competitive for the next five years unless the budget suddenly goes to the $145-160 million range. A budget of that size changes the entire narrative. Buxton goes though and the core is broken. 

Lastly, I want to note that we still don't know whether Buxton actually wants to remain with the Twins. We also don't know what value Falvey places on Buxton. Those are two important answers to a puzzle. What tolerance does Twins Territory have for a rebuild? My guess - very little.

Cody, this is the essential question now.  Resign Bux to a long term extension or not.  The whole offseason depends on resolution of this question.  If we fans can understand this, you can be sure management understands this, too, which is why significant FA signings/ trade speculation, etc. are just hollow hopes.

While it is still too soon to predict which direction this FO intends to go, there was one revealing statement by Falvey in the Rosenthal article on resigning Buxton that  is most illuminating:

"At this stage of the offseason, we’re still just navigating our strategy and planning and trying to understand what’s available to us and what the market looks like on all periods."

Now we all know this guy is a great spin doctor, but the fact he was quoted just this week that they were still navigating strategy is pretty shocking.  Wouldn't a responsible organization have decided prior to opening of the FA signing period that either they had to sign Buxton as a base for retooling the roster in order to return to contention in 2022 or not signing him resulting in a complete rebuild?  There is no logical middle ground here.  The fact they haven't yet moved on Buxton indicates they will be hamstrung in making significant trades or signings until the Buxton issue is settled, resulting in the usual dumpster dive after all the dust has settled this offseason. 

I think most of us at TD are stunned by this lack of resolve, but we shouldn't be.  The history of this org. points to acceptance of mediocrity by ownership satisfied with sporadic contention, but clueless on taking the next step.  Falvey seems the perfect hire for perpetuating JP's reluctance to take the necessary risks to win.  So those of us left in the Twins fandom can look forward to another rebuild led by the Wonder Boys or some clone thereof.  As a 60 + year fan of the franchise, I am now more pessimistic than ever in both the short and long term prospects for this franchise so long as the Pohlad family is in charge.

I can already feel the arrows piercing me as I write this, but here goes:  can we STOP with the narrative that the Twins slide off a cliff into oblivion if we don't have a player who has played less than half the games in his career?  The Yankees won 92 games last year with BRETT GARDNER as their CF for 100+ games, and the Twins won 101 in '19 with Buxton in the game just over half the games (87).  It is indeed one of the most important positions on a team; SS and Catcher come to mind as well, and Buxton mans it the best when he is healthy.  But the concept that the Twins can't compete with Baltimore unless we have one center fielder for half a season (or even a whole season), and no one can fill the void, is just a little too far out for me.  It would be nice to get him signed, but I also wonder how much he (and Berrios as well, in hindsight) truly wants to be here for his career.  Everyone talks a great game when negotiations are in full gear, but most go where the money is in the end, and Buck knows the money is there for the taking in a year.  I agree with tony&rodney across the board in that this FO is no better (or worse) than the last one.  I have said it before, and I will say it again, the cupboards were not that bare when this group walked in.  It is ownership, from father to son (just as it was from father to son in the Griffin family) that puts a number on a budget, and this FO has the same parameters as the last one.  JP and Falvine all give us a lot of gibberish about having money when it is needed, etc. etc. etc., but none of them gives a straight answer to a straight question.  Ever.  So we can only guess what is going on, and I fear that this contract, after the Donaldson one, for a player who hasn't proven he can stay on the field, may be too much for JP.  But I just don't believe that it is the end of the franchise as we know it if we have to let go.  If Buxton goes, sell 'em all.  Just accept another 100 loss season.  Sorry, I don't accept that, and still believe pitching is first on their list.  We can be competitive, at least in this division, with the right pieces on the pitching staff, so I will reserve judgment on this FO and JP until that is decided one way or the other, although I do have to admit I am not holding my breath.  Just as when they came in, the cupboards are not that bare now either, and it is their job to complete the roster.  If they do, they should get a raise; if they don't, they should go.  But they don't get a pass, or get fired on what happens with Buxton (or Berrios).  Everyone knew it was going to be a crap shoot with these two when it came to extensions.  Buck knows JP as well as we do; let's just hope he really does want to stay here and will be willing to get it done.  But if he doesn't, we will live.  

Wasn't that long ago that the Wild was days from training camp with their best player unsigned.  Heck, sounded to the public that he wasn't even in the U.S.  Then one morning the G.M. got a phone call from the agent saying, get on a plane and come to Florida so the three of us can sit down and talk.  The result was that he was under contract two days later and in training camp when it started.  

The top dogs in the Twins FO need to pick up the phone and say we're coming to Georgia tomorrow, can we talk.  Then sit down, discuss how each side is viewing the situation and make a deal before leaving.  

Why can’t just paying him his arbitration deal this year and playing the season out be an option?

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

It is an option. Just doesn't seem like a good one, to me at least.

If over paying for a part time player or trading him for a couple of fringe prospects are the other options, would that change your mind?

If you look at the moves the FO made while the “championship window was open”, I dread the moves they’ll make to “retool”. 

Buxton has produced less than 2.0 fWAR per season across his career. He was under 2.5 fWAR until the last 10 games of the season this past year. A player like that doesn't make the difference between retool and rebuild. What they replace Buxton with will make the difference.

3 hours ago, yeahyabetcha said:

If over paying for a part time player or trading him for a couple of fringe prospects are the other options, would that change your mind?

If you think Buxton is so awesome and important, why would he only bring a couple fringe prospects?

Has anyone considered that Buxton may want to prove himself in 2022 in order to get a better contract in FA after the season?   Not a slight on the Twins, but consider what logically could be “reality.”

I suspect that Byron likely views himself as a victim of freak injuries (2021’s wrist injury) and “running into walls” injuries that he believes he is now able to avoid as a smarter, seasoned, veteran player.  However, the Twins can’t afford to let him “play it out” (and join next year’s off-season bidding war).   The Twins are more likely to get a good return this offseason than mid season 2022.   If they are contending in midseason 2022, the option to trade Buxton is off the table completely.  Now is the the time to make an effort to sign him, but upon being rejected - TRADE BUCk.  That may be REbuilding; it may be REtooling: but it is likely to be REality.  

San Francisco helped us out once before when they wanted AJ.

They need a CF, Taylor Roger's brother is there, and Longoria has a year left on his contract.

What about Buxton, Rogers, Donaldson to SF for Longoria, a MLB OF that can play CF, and a handful of prospects?

That should keep the cheap Pohlad family happy without Carl turning over in his grave ....

2 hours ago, strumdatjag said:

Has anyone considered that Buxton may want to prove himself in 2022 in order to get a better contract in FA after the season?   Not a slight on the Twins, but consider what logically could be “reality.”

I suspect that Byron likely views himself as a victim of freak injuries (2021’s wrist injury) and “running into walls” injuries that he believes he is now able to avoid as a smarter, seasoned, veteran player.  However, the Twins can’t afford to let him “play it out” (and join next year’s off-season bidding war).   The Twins are more likely to get a good return this offseason than mid season 2022.   If they are contending in midseason 2022, the option to trade Buxton is off the table completely.  Now is the the time to make an effort to sign him, but upon being rejected - TRADE BUCk.  That may be REbuilding; it may be REtooling: but it is likely to be REality.  

If Buxton knew he'd be healthy, have a great year and the CBA would work out well for the players, I'm sure he'd elect not to sign an extension right now. There are a lot of things Buxton might consider at the moment. The same reasons it's so very hard to figure out what a fair offer or his trade value actually looks like.

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

If you think Buxton is so awesome and important, why would he only bring a couple fringe prospects?

I wouldn’t say I think Buxton is “so awesome and important”.  I think he has the potential to have a great year and would invest the 10 million or whatever it takes to see it in a Twins uniform.  And if other teams think he is an injury risk, they may not offer more than fringe prospects.

5 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Buxton has produced less than 2.0 fWAR per season across his career. He was under 2.5 fWAR until the last 10 games of the season this past year. A player like that doesn't make the difference between retool and rebuild. What they replace Buxton with will make the difference.

Are you really arguing that the current version is anywhere close to what we saw as a rookie?

I love all the people on here. “We can’t trade Buxton, his value has never been lower”!  Same people: “If they don’t give Buxton $30m+ AAV, the FO is crazy and should be fired. 

40 minutes ago, Reptevia said:

I love all the people on here. “We can’t trade Buxton, his value has never been lower”!  Same people: “If they don’t give Buxton $30m+ AAV, the FO is crazy and should be fired. 

Love is a good thing. Thank you.

I am not aware of anyone offering a contract for $30 million per year. The main point in comments has been that a base of near $11 million would be accompanied by incentives. The incentives would raise the salary, yes, but it would also mean that Buxton is playing which has been a winning proposition for the Twins. Those who look back and dwell on the injuries have an argument to make and are fine with going on without Buxton. Those who have watched Buxton grow as a player and see his potential would like to see that potential shine in a Twins uniform. Both sides are entitled to their opinions as fans of who or who not to watch. I do believe TD comments should ease off the FO who are just following orders from above them. Still, the comments by Falvey this week were weak, poorly phrased, at best; not his best day.

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Are you really arguing that the current version is anywhere close to what we saw as a rookie?

No. As a rookie Buxton produced 0.1 fWAR. Then 1.5, then 3.6, then -0.3, then 2.7, then 1.2 before this past season... where again, until the last 10 games of the year, he was like 2.5 fWAR. 

If the Twins can resign Buxton and want to keep him on the field, why not look at him being the DH even though he is an elite center fielder. If he won't sign, I'd get at least 4 players for him with 2 pitchers and 2 hitters and 2 at the major league level. Shipping him to the Mets looks like the best possible scenario right now.

all these numbers, small letters, large letters, decimal points, plusses and minuses are making my head explode.

Lets not trade Buxton. His injury history might negate the return twins need to replace him. But more than that, (when healthy) he is one of the most exciting players in MLB. Those players are in short supply. Yeah, many are talented, but few can dominate a game. Buck can. He can do it all. And right now he wears OUR uni. Fans love watching him play. Baseball is still entertainment...that people pay to see. (or not) I see Buck as more valuable to the Twins than to other teams. Will they fall apart if traded? No. Will they be less enjoyable to watch? Absolutely. Are they more likely to contend if he stays and can play at least 100 games? Probably. (will there even be a season in 2022? We'll be finding out in the coming weeks)

Superstars on a team don't guarantee a championship. But it can help and make fringey teams at least watchable. (Angels have been terrible despite Trout. Cubs never won with Banks. Expos couldn't win with Vladdy...or a boatload of other stars for that matter. There are others. Conversely some superstars transform losers into teams fans will return to watching. Gretzky saved hockey in LA. Anyway, I hope Twins keep their center fielder. And he ultimately leads them to the World Series.

9 hours ago, bean5302 said:

If you think Buxton is so awesome and important, why would he only bring a couple fringe prospects?

Because people are trying to have it both ways.