Predicting the Twins' Most Likely Free Agent Starting Pitcher Signing

I can only say no.  Amazing isn't it that we try to sign someone who is as good as Berrios - let's just sign Jose again.  

I can see why Cobb might be interesting, but I'd feel a lot better about someone who had a better track record of health. he's only thrown 175 innings in his career once, and he's missed a lot of time due to injury. I don't see him as being a primary target for the Twins, more like a secondary one.

I wouldn't be opposed to having Cobb on the roster, but I'd feel a lot better if he was the second starting pitcher they signed right than being the top guy. I'm worried about his health, I'm worried that his uptick in Ks is fluky (it's been 7 years since his k/9 was near this, a full K better per 9 than his career best, and THREE better than anything he's put up since 2014) and as a result I fear he won't be replacing Jose Berrios' effectiveness but will instead be more of a guy with an ERA+ in the 95-100 range that we're paying a lot of money for.

I'd rather bring back Pineda (who was roughly as effective last season, about as a healthy, and would be significantly cheaper).

Cobb could be had on a shorter contract due to age.  He is on my list too.  As much as we want, The Twins will not play in the top free agent pitchers.  I also have Alex Wood, Matz, Gray and Gray, among others.

The biggest decision is our belief in the front office. They say the team, will be competitive in 2022. To do that, they must improve on a lot of players that played last season (Kepler, Sano, Jefferies),  fill some major holes at shortstop/ leftfield/ bullpen...and have pitchers that can actually pitch more than five innings in a game and maybe, just maybe, give you close to 200 innings of work.

You have to ask who on the roster is actually tradable and what they can bring back to the team besides prospects, of which the Twins have their own fair share. Of course we may consider the Twins somewhat prospect rich, although baseball as a whole has a  lot of underseasoned prospects who will be jettisoned by teams in the coming month, too. Are any of our prospects worthy of being loved so much by an over-salaried team, or a team feearing their own potential free agents, that they want to badger the Twins front office with communication.

Then it boils down to money, how much, how many years in a contract. We see what happened when the front office proved to us that they would spend money bigtime on Donaldson. They got applause, until you start thinking about it in the long-run. Plus, any free agent looking to come to the Twins will come for one reason only - to rebuild themselves into a bigger and better future contract. If the difference is 10-15% in dollars, players will look closely at the winning possibilities, as well as how the market plays to their own success.

Baseball is, after all, a team sport. You are only as good as the players around you, and a bad team can bring you down, or they end up trading you, which wasn't your choice when you signed and committed, but is part of the game.

If Cobb is best this FO can come up with,  then the one positive should be their quick exit from the TC. a year from now. This team needs 2 top guys plus a Pineda-type(who I would prefer over Cobb in 3 spot).  I have little faith in this org's ability to swing for the fences and a Cobb addition would unfortunately confirm my scepticism.  With promises of a return to contention in 2022 and at least $50-60MM to spend, the FO/Pohlad have no excuses this time around, especially with the high quality of FA starters and some enticing trade candidates.

Tom, I like the work you do both with your videos and writing about the Twins and thank you.

Alex Cobb may have a few good years left in him, but he is almost a #4 pitcher, similar to Michael Pineda. Perhaps the Twins can live with a bottom of the rotation pitcher sitting in the middle, but I will pass unless it is for less than $8 million. There are several trade opportunities out there and other free agents that would look better in a Twins uniform. Falvey has an interesting few months ahead of him. 

Tom, I guess my question to you, which you sort of hinted at, are you looking at Cobb as a secondary acquisition? Because if he's the primary addition then I have to say no. I don't trust the injury history, or feel there's enough upside to make a difference. 

I'd prefer Cobb as a #3 SP option but could be convinced he'd be a solid #2 if the health question/gamble turned out. While his career W/L is uninspiring, as is his career K/9, most of his overall numbers are solid across the board. He could be that experienced, veteran guy that just suddenly stays healthy and starts to perform the way he always "could have" before, even at 34yo. It happens. We see a guy like that almost every year.

Forgetting what I believe will be an approximate $140M payroll for the team to re-tool and compete and thus have the money for a quality FA signing to lead the staff, my biggest problem trying to figure out 2022 is the #2 spot. Is that filled via FA or trade? My gut tells me Pineda is the #3, and it's an easy play, as you alluded to.

I can be talked in to Cobb. You make a compelling arguement. And I'd LOVE Gray, but recent rumors say Colorado may offer a QO, assuming they can with the CBA up in the air. If that happens, the Twins are out unless their pick next year is protected. (Want to say it is, but am not sure). I think Wood and Matz might be safer, and I do like a bounceback from Bundy and Duffy.

But again, you've given me a lot to think about and I could be talked in to Cobb. Nice OP!

How similar is Cobb to 2019 Homer Bailey? Seems like same age and some similar peripherals. Bailey was healthy in 2019 starting more games that season than Cobb started in 2021 and 2020 combined. In fact Bailey has pitched more major league innings since 2019 than Cobb has pitched in the same time frame. When you combine those two seasons as we probably should given that he had less than 100 innings last year his numbers don’t look very promising. He had only 5 starts of at least 6 innings last year.

Bailey pitched well in 2019. Happ pitched well in 2020. Cobb pitched well in 2021. Go back one year for each and they don’t look that promising. It is critical to take a two or three year look when considering a mid 30s pitcher. 

1 hour ago, Tom Froemming said:

Cobb is the free agent (outside of Pineda) I can most envision them signing. I wouldn't expect him to be the primary rotation upgrade of the offseason, but it wouldn't surprise me. I think their best avenue to actually fix this rotation is to trade for somebody. Get someone in their prime who's going to be around for multiple years. Gotta give something to get something, though.

I would be prepared to overpay in a trade that brings in a rotation piece if it came down to it, but does this front office feel the same way? I'm not sure, maybe. They seem to be pretty risk averse, though. Maybe they'll play it safer, since last offseason was such a disaster. Smaller moves that go poorly don't look as bad as big moves that go south. Another terrible offseason and Jim Pohlad's grade for them might drop from an A+ to just an A. Then they'll really be feeling the heat! ? 

I know Nick talked about a trade for Manaea from the A's involving Kepler. Makes some sense, but I don't see the FO trading anyone for a 1yr player based on history. And we've rehashed over and again about trading our catching depth to Miami for one of their pitchers. That just doesn't make sense to me unless the Twins truly believe  they would be OK with Garver or Jeffers being gone and everyone else on hand is ready to take the lead as a starter or backup. But wouldnt we need to bring someone else in to balance and add to the roster?

Other than another Oddorizi or Maeda trade out of the rabbit's hat, I just don't see a way to add to the rotation without at least ONE major FA signing.

So now we are thinking about signing guys older than Berrios who are soft throwers for twice what Berrios was making.

Brilliant. NOT! Win NOW while you have the players to compete. The two teams in the WS just proved that what it takes is to trade prospects for players who can help you win it all.

There will Always be new prospects to draft at the end of each year. The two guys we got for Berrios may not see the light of day for years. What is the point? Even if they become Stars, who will they have around them? The lineup we have had a window on for the last three years needed only a closer and a bullpen arm or two to get to the series.

Atlanta lost a star player and went out and picked up not one, but FOUR outfielders, who all started every game in a complete remake of the team in midseason. The result? A World Series Championship.

Moral: when you have a window of opportunity - go for it! Make the trades, dont sell and stockpile talent you dont need to win NOW. You will never get to the promised land that way.

The fatal flaw in the argument is Cobb’s durability. Not one single statistic means anything without being on the field

8 hours ago, KBJ1 said:

So now we are thinking about signing guys older than Berrios who are soft throwers for twice what Berrios was making.

Brilliant. NOT! Win NOW while you have the players to compete. The two teams in the WS just proved that what it takes is to trade prospects for players who can help you win it all.

There will Always be new prospects to draft at the end of each year. The two guys we got for Berrios may not see the light of day for years. What is the point? Even if they become Stars, who will they have around them? The lineup we have had a window on for the last three years needed only a closer and a bullpen arm or two to get to the series.

Atlanta lost a star player and went out and picked up not one, but FOUR outfielders, who all started every game in a complete remake of the team in midseason. The result? A World Series Championship.

Moral: when you have a window of opportunity - go for it! Make the trades, dont sell and stockpile talent you dont need to win NOW. You will never get to the promised land that way.

You really need to pay a little attention to real life examples.  The White Sox traded away far more than Berrios.  Where are they now.  Boston (even with their revenue) let Betts go.  How are they doing?  The Mariners cleaned house and now are poised to be in contention for several year.  The Padres went all in and it blew up in their face.  Maybe Darvish and Snell will perform better next year but Snell had one great year and several mediocre seasons.  Darvish was terrible the 2nd half.  Meanwhile Patino looks like he could be better than Snell over his career.  

If that does not clear things up for you .... Take a look at the Rays who obviously have less resource than the Twins and far less than their division rivals.  They traded away Adames mid-season while leading the division.  When they traded away Blake Snell and the reaction around baseball was similar to your reaction.  They are far better positioned because of that trade.  Perhaps more to the point they trade away established players all the time and have thrived by understanding the value of years of control and cost controlled players.  They continue to add complimentary players because they understand these principals.  

Stroman makes the most sense because of his durability and athleticism at 5/$20 million, but the Twins may be reluctant to go that high and it is likely another team is willing to go considerably higher. Rodon or Syndergaard are risky and would likely cost our Round 2 draft pick in addition to a pile of cash. The Twins are in a tough place and will lose 90 or more games with a rotation of  FA, Pineda/Cobb, Dobnak, Ryan, and Ober. This, in turn, may cost any chance of signing Buxton - who knows. At that point we are developing starters at the MLB level and going into a rebuilding phase. This may be one idea. I'm not sure what tolerance Minnesota fans have for another rebuild. That leaves trading, if the Twins plan on a season of competitive baseball. Risks need to be taken in trades and a few teams stand out as fair partners for possible trades: Miami, Oakland, and Milwaukee. There are other opportunities as well. The targets should be pitchers who have three years or more left before free agency and these trades will costs the Twins some prospects and current roster players. Falvey does seem risk adverse but he will look to avenues where there is a solid chance for improving the on field baseball team for 2022. Cobb or Pineda are solid choices to add as #4 starters and may even be pushed as #3 starters with two really good pitchers both above and below them.

Alex Cobb does not excite me for 2022.  4 years ago maybe - but if he were our "big free agent pitcher signing", I would not be impressed.  One other note - if the Rockies are considering bringing back Gray, that means his price must not be too high - lets make him an offer.  Get him out of Coors and his numbers will look better as a potential #2 for us for the next 4 years.

11 hours ago, Tom Froemming said:

Cobb is the free agent (outside of Pineda) I can most envision them signing. I wouldn't expect him to be the primary rotation upgrade of the offseason, but it wouldn't surprise me. I think their best avenue to actually fix this rotation is to trade for somebody. Get someone in their prime who's going to be around for multiple years. Gotta give something to get something, though.

I would be prepared to overpay in a trade that brings in a rotation piece if it came down to it, but does this front office feel the same way? I'm not sure, maybe. They seem to be pretty risk averse, though. Maybe they'll play it safer, since last offseason was such a disaster. Smaller moves that go poorly don't look as bad as big moves that go south. Another terrible offseason and Jim Pohlad's grade for them might drop from an A+ to just an A. Then they'll really be feeling the heat! ? 

How much would the Twins had to have paid Berrios to get him to extend 5 years? This article and the accompanying  charts, make an excellent argument for why the Twins should have paid Berrios a lot of money to remain a Twin. There's more to keeping a fan favorite than just comparing how much it would cost, compared to "players on other teams". There are hidden costs and investments the Twins make on all of their minor league players. We Twins fans are "invested " in the Twins with our time and energy and some of us invest our hearts and souls.  I am sick and tired of the Twins letting career Twin minor league success stories, who become successful major league players for the Twins, and fan favorites, walk away because the FO and/or owner will not pay to keep them enough to keep them.  We root fore these players for 4-6 years and then they  wander off to be "play-off heroes" for some other team. Think outside the box. There needs to be a better way to build a successful team from within the organization. Invest more money into player scouting and player development. Convince these players that the Twins really care about each player and there really is a "Twins Way" which builds successful, winning, team oriented players. SIGN BUCK.

On 11/4/2021 at 9:47 AM, tony&rodney said:

Stroman makes the most sense because of his durability and athleticism at 5/$20 million, but the Twins may be reluctant to go that high and it is likely another team is willing to go considerably higher. Rodon or Syndergaard are risky and would likely cost our Round 2 draft pick in addition to a pile of cash. The Twins are in a tough place and will lose 90 or more games with a rotation of  FA, Pineda/Cobb, Dobnak, Ryan, and Ober. This, in turn, may cost any chance of signing Buxton - who knows. At that point we are developing starters at the MLB level and going into a rebuilding phase. This may be one idea. I'm not sure what tolerance Minnesota fans have for another rebuild. That leaves trading, if the Twins plan on a season of competitive baseball. Risks need to be taken in trades and a few teams stand out as fair partners for possible trades: Miami, Oakland, and Milwaukee. There are other opportunities as well. The targets should be pitchers who have three years or more left before free agency and these trades will costs the Twins some prospects and current roster players. Falvey does seem risk adverse but he will look to avenues where there is a solid chance for improving the on field baseball team for 2022. Cobb or Pineda are solid choices to add as #4 starters and may even be pushed as #3 starters with two really good pitchers both above and below them.

Maybe the Twins should rebuild but that's another question.  There are a lot of people here who keep insisting anything other than a complete focus on next year will necessitate a rebuild.  Just look at the role young pitchers played in the playoffs this year.  We already have two young pitchers prove to be quite effective.  Ober came along way in 20 starts.  They could "retool" in one year so I wish people would quit the drama of portraying it as a rebuild.

Here is what they could do between 2022 and 2023.

• Invest innings in the multitude of pitching prospects that are ready or will become ready during 2022.
• Move some of those prospects to the BP
• Trade Donaldson / Free up dollars for 2023
• Decline Sano's option next year
• Bring up Miranda to replace Donaldson.
• Establish a couple of Martin / Larnach / Celestino and maybe even Lewis.  It would not hurt to give Rooker a last chance.
• Get Maeda back
• Trade Arraez + assets for whatever we need to round out the roster.  Perhaps a SS if Lewis bombs.
• Use the payroll flexibility provided by establishing internal pitching (ie Berrios) or whatever the greatest need is in 2023.
• Use some of that money to extend Buxton.
• There would also be money available next year for a SS (IE Anderson) if Lewis bombs and we cant trade for one.

 This is a very realistic 1 year retool so can we quit insisting the Twins will have to rebuild if they don't plug every hole in 2022?

If the Reds exercise Mileys option, I wonder what it would take to acquire him? Would Strottman and a low A flier work?  He would cost 10 million and be the type of pitcher we would acquire.  This will allow us an open spot in the rotation for one of the arms coming up a spot to claim after next season when Miley is a free agent again.

46 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Here is what they could do between 2022 and 2023.

Nearly every plan mentioned thus far is a retool, not a rebuild. You seem to focus on a 2-3 year path and this may be what Falvey has planned as well. The conversations on TD are mostly aimed for just 2022 at @$120-135 million as a budget, but do consider that the rosters are reasonable going past next year as well. I have yet to see a plan that goes all in for just 2022, largely because we are constricted from a budget of $170 million or so. Your stance is fine but pushes a new direction. Most of us actually like most of the Twins players and prospects but I, for one, believe there is too much redundancy and also would like to see an improvement in defense and speed (athleticism). Thus, some people would advocate for trades for pitchers who still have 2-4 years left of contract control, according to the current CBA ( a potential boondoggle). 

Ryan and Ober are ok and Winder, Duran, Balozavic should also see some time at the MLB level next season. I like the prospects but they are not as highly ranked nationally as some other organizations' young pitchers (Detroit, KC). We would be very pleased to get 50-75 starts from our group and I advocate to use some of these guys in relief initially. This leaves nearly 100 starts to fill. A free agent, maybe two could be signed. Trades seem a reasonable course of action as well.

9 minutes ago, Brandon said:

If the Reds exercise Mileys option, I wonder what it would take to acquire him?

This is a decent one year option perhaps. Miley is a solid pitcher. The Reds may want more, but I don't have any idea what they want right now. My focus in trades has been to overpay for arms that still have a few years left before free agency. The CBA really needs to be worked out before 2022 or baseball will be in a pickle.

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

This is a decent one year option perhaps. Miley is a solid pitcher. The Reds may want more, but I don't have any idea what they want right now. My focus in trades has been to overpay for arms that still have a few years left before free agency. The CBA really needs to be worked out before 2022 or baseball will be in a pickle.

The Twins have 5 starting pitching prospects at AA and AAA with several more at A ball.  I think it would make sense to stagger the three starters so one is gone in 1 year,  Pineda can be replaced in 2 years and we have a third starter who can be here for 3 or more years.  Plus we want to be able to get some pitching at a low cost so we have more resources for either a SS or for a top pitcher.  

I think the BEST guy they will sign is Pineda. 

5 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Nearly every plan mentioned thus far is a retool, not a rebuild. You seem to focus on a 2-3 year path and this may be what Falvey has planned as well. The conversations on TD are mostly aimed for just 2022 at @$120-135 million as a budget, but do consider that the rosters are reasonable going past next year as well. I have yet to see a plan that goes all in for just 2022, largely because we are constricted from a budget of $170 million or so. Your stance is fine but pushes a new direction. Most of us actually like most of the Twins players and prospects but I, for one, believe there is too much redundancy and also would like to see an improvement in defense and speed (athleticism). Thus, some people would advocate for trades for pitchers who still have 2-4 years left of contract control, according to the current CBA ( a potential boondoggle). 

Ryan and Ober are ok and Winder, Duran, Balozavic should also see some time at the MLB level next season. I like the prospects but they are not as highly ranked nationally as some other organizations' young pitchers (Detroit, KC). We would be very pleased to get 50-75 starts from our group and I advocate to use some of these guys in relief initially. This leaves nearly 100 starts to fill. A free agent, maybe two could be signed. Trades seem a reasonable course of action as well.

 

How am I focused on a 2-3 year plan?  This is a real good example of my earlier statement that any plan that looks beyond next year is a 3+ year plan.  I very clearly laid out a 1 year plan.  Taking one year to develop pitching and transition to Miranda in.  Any of these moves focused only on the present can be done next year.  The difference is there is a very good chance we can establish a home grown rotation that can serve us for several years years.  It gives us a chance to transition Donaldson out and Miranda in a year where we are very unlikely to contend.  And, the part you don't seem to grasp is that we would have far more payroll availability to fill out a roster.

This need for the right now is a good way to stay mediocre for a long time.  Take a look around.  What did Chicago and Seattle do with similar teams?  How did Houston become a powerhouse?  What are the Cubs about to do?  Then, look at the Phillies and Mets who have employed the strategy you suggest.  How are they doing?  This team is not contending next year short of a miracle so I would much rather win 80 games instead of 84 while pursuing practices that have a real chance of producing a contender.

25 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

And, the part you don't seem to grasp

Sad. Done.

On 11/4/2021 at 9:29 AM, tony&rodney said:

This is a decent one year option perhaps. Miley is a solid pitcher. The Reds may want more, but I don't have any idea what they want right now. My focus in trades has been to overpay for arms that still have a few years left before free agency. The CBA really needs to be worked out before 2022 or baseball will be in a pickle.

Turns out they wanted nothing for him as they put him on waivers so the Cubs could get him and avoid a potential 1 million buyout.  but if you look at his stats he was good 2 of the last 3 seasons.  he only had what 6 starts in 2020.  He was well worth a low a prospect to fill a hole in out rotation that has many.

2 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Turns out they wanted nothing

This was a surprise to me. I get that the Reds needed to trim costs but Miley was pretty good last year. Is it possible there was an injury that looked worse than we knew? He did miss some time late in the season and didn't finish strong. The Reds are confusing.