Berríos or Buxton: Who is Worth a $100 Million Deal?

Berrios

I would rather keep them both but if we have to pick one I'd extend Buxton and trade Berrios. Give me the MVP candidate and I'll roll the dice on health. Berrios should fetch a HAUL at the trade deadline otherwise they can hang onto him for another year.

No one is worth that amount of money, but it is not real money to me and I am not paying it so I do not care.   I just want both of them to continue with the team and in particular Berrios.  I think Buxton might have reason to sign a good but shorter term contract to establish that he can stay healthy and get the really big contract.   Of course there is the Mike Trout case where he "earned" the excessive monster contract and had stayed healthy all these years only to go IL when he got the big one.

I think Berrios will command a bit over $100M. Buxton is hard to put my finger on due to obvious reasons, but I don't think he gets $100M+. He may be hitting like an MVP when he's playing, but it's a pretty small sample size, and his defense is not going to improve with age.

Berrios COULD GET $100 million if traded to the right team. What team, that is the crapshoot.

I think the Twins would jump at five years and $85 million. But part of Target Field was that the Twins would be able to pay to keep their free agents. And I always thought that part of a good hometeam free agent contact was that you were rewarding the player also for past play and making a name for themselves with the home team. Never could totally figure out overpaying a guy who will probably not produce similar numbers going forth.

But both Buxton and Berrios are young. A five year contract may not be their last. Might be another 3-4 year deal when those run out.

Do the Twins offer a 3 year deal and an option. Do they let them declare free agency halfway thru a contract? If push came to shove , would you offer the qualifying offer of the day to either and hope they accept?

Buxton needs to play. Getting hit on the hand cost him, probably, $10 million in pay. A team gambling $100 million on him would be gambling, yet someone might, just might. Remember, he can always become a corner outfielder, and if his plate discipline increases, he will get a payday.

But I doubt it will be with the Twins. Somehow, not getting the $100 million feeling. The question is: how long does the front office hold out. This trading deadline, the off-season, or spring training/next year.

The message is also bad that it sends to any other potential stars. Play out your Minnesota contract and go elsewhere. And if the team starts getting noticed for playing with service time, goodbye signing some picks.

Was Joe Mauer worth $175 million? Well, was he worth $22 million for his first six years of production?

Bud Grant was always a big proponent of valuing durability as a key factor in the players that you have. Berrios has durability and unfortunately, Buxton does not. If Berrios will take a 5 year, 100 million dollar deal then I say do it. Buxton will go down in Twins history as perhaps the greatest, " might have been". 

You can't give Buxton a straight $100 with his injury history, but he likely won't agree to a contract that's too incentive-laden.

Berrios is worth 5/100 if you're contending.

Either way, the team will probably need to trade at least 1 of them in July or over the winter, because they won't pay both and next year's team may not be on track to win 90+ games even with them anyway.

5 years, $100M seems like a significant discount compared to what each of them would get as a free agent. If possible the team should sign both of them to a contract of that length and value.

I still think Lewis is destined to be a CF'er so if I HAD to choose between Buxton & Berrios I would choose Berrios.

Berrios is durable.  As bad as our pitching is, we don't get better by giving up on Jose.  Subtract Berrios from this staff and how much worse would we be ??  Finally, Target Field was built to KEEP our best players.  Come on Pohlad's !  5-years and $100 million for Berrios.  Should have been done last winter.

Now Buxton.  As it has been mentioned by others, Target Field was built with the promise we keep our best players.  Buxton is our BEST player.  Even if I feel Lewis is destined for CF, Lewis could play RF just as easily.  Byron's latest injury is, to say the least...frustrating.  But if you're looking for a silver lining, maybe it makes him "somewhat" more affordable.

I might gauge what the haul could be for Buxton in a trade, but ultimately, I want to sign him as well.  Everyone has stunk---Pitchers, hitters, the manager, coaches, the front office.  Indeed...total system failure.  The White Sox and Indians were gearing up over the winter to put some pressure on the Twins and the best our FO could do was Happ, Shoemaker, Colome and Simmons.  We could have signed Liam Hendricks, but we let the White Sox have him.  Target Field was built so that the Twins could STOP with these crappy "half-measures" in building a consistent winner.  We brought in a new FO to effect this stated plan.  Most of what Falvey and Levine have done are still those crappy half-measures.  Get Serious !  Players like Donaldson and Sano should be dealt.  Cruz as well despite the fact he's our best hitter.  It's time to spend some money for a real SS and a couple SP's as well  and an anchor for our BP.  And yes, sign BOTH Berrios and Buxton.  You've developed them.  They are good major league players.  We're better WITH them.  So keep them.

Berrios is a very good #2 on just about any staff.  Worth $100mm?  No.  Especially if you don't have a real #1.  The Twins haven't had a real #1 for a long time.  Buxton has not proven he can stay on the field.  I don't agree in giving him a huge contract for 70-80 games a year.  Time to get what we can for anyone on this roster.  If this club continues to want to build from within and not spend money, do it now while they have some value.

Berrios yes.  Buxton only if he would sign an incentive laden deal as karbo stated but I see today's athlete all about guaranteed money vs incentive.  Agents being agents aren't going to go that route = Show me the money they preach

Every time I see this discussion it's "Buxton is a generational talent with the potential to be one of Baseball's true greats," and "Berrios is a pretty solid number two pitcher," so if it's possible to keep one of these guys, I guess I'm on team Buxton, injuries and all.

Both.

10 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

This is easy...if they can sign Buxton, they should. Buxton is a game changer (when on the field). A player is "injury prone" until he isn't.

If you can get Berrios under contract, great, but the priority should be Buxton. Buxton is an elite player, Berrios isn't. Pay for elite before you pay for pretty good.

I'd wager a lot of money Buxton is worth more going forward than Berrios.

I agree completely with this entire take, especially the bold portion.

Another thing to consider is which player is most likely to outperform the contract they sign, and there is not a scenario I see where Berrios at $20M+ per year ever looks like a massive bargain to the Twins.

That being said, the Twins have the money to sign both, and I hope they do it. Jose on the bump and Byron in center is always a fun game to watch.

Obviously I'd want to keep both but if I'm forced to pick one then I'd have to say Berrios. Buxton can't stay healthy and with his skill set he probably Deserves the money more but if I'm investing 100 million or so, you gotta be on the field. Berrios has been durable and that gives him the edge to me. That and you know, Pitching wins Championships

I don't have the numbers in front of me to compare, but I put Berrios and Wheeler in the same category. Wheeler got 5 years and $118m and the Twins were in it to the end(supposedly). With Berrios having been a healthy SP and many believe he has more in the tank, I would be willing to say that is a good and more than fair offer. 

As for Bux, no team is going to give a guy $20+m when he has proven he can't stay on the field. He is just one of those players that seems snake bitten. Maybe something along the lines of 5 years $70m with a lot of games played bonuses. If Bux plays 150 games, he is easily worth $25m per, if not $30+m. I just don't see the Twins being the team to take that big risk, although they did with with Donaldson.

I would go 6/100 on Berrios. Put him on a good team, and he’s a #3. I don’t think he would take 5/100 anyway. He’s looking for 5/150. Buxton will never get $100M from the Twins. Just not durable enough, and the sting of the Mauer contract is still to recent. I’m afraid the best move is to trade both at some point with predictable consequences. The Twins cycle. 

I'd sign Berrios to a 5 year $100M deal immediately. he gets that on the open market in my mind for sure, unless he blows out his elbow next season, and there's nothing to suggest he will. I just think he's comfortable betting on himself and won't sign it. Feels like he's looking around and thinking "I'm already there, and if I have a good season in 2022, I'm going to see 5/$125M or more." Can't say that he's wrong. He's definitely not taking a home-town discount.

Buxton is the harder call. Kornheiser ain't wrong when he says the greatest ability is availability. Can you offer a $100M deal knowing that he may never play a full season over the life of that deal? He's played 140 games in a season once, and it's the only time he's broken a hundred games, and there's little to no chance of it happening this year either. but as shown, he's capable of putting up tremendous value when he is healthy. How will he age as a player? Will he maintain his skill through the duration of the contract, or will it degrade because of the injuries? It's the hardest call. I love him as a player. he is a joy to watch and I want him part of the team forever. Can we do this deal? man, that's tough.

51 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

This is easy...if they can sign Buxton, they should. Buxton is a game changer (when on the field). A player is "injury prone" until he isn't

Couldn't agree more!

Both options are scary and could really handcuff the entire franchise if the contract goes downhill. I'm glad I'm not making these decisions. 

Berrios is the one to give the contract to between them.  I would say Buxton adds more value when he plays, but he will only play 50% of the games, if that.  So I would offer Buxton shorter term contract to prove he can play a season or two healthy, or give him longer deal but for half the money you would give someone and explain you play 50% of the games so you are only worth 50% of what you could be. 

I think the decision on Berrios is actually pretty easy. Lance McCullers got five years, $85 million. Berrios is a significantly better investment both in terms of quality and then likely longevity given his work ethic and past performance. He is clearly worth a five-year/$100, million type contract and might be worth more. The Twins could stagger the payment so that his salary went up significantly after Donelson comes off the books. Quality top of rotation starting pitching is the hardest thing to develop and the hardest thing to find. Even if Berrios is only really a number 2 starter, and I think he might develop into a true number one still, he is worth the money. He is the guy I will try the hardest to sign.

Buxton is the much harder case because of his injury history and the fact that until this year he’s really never shown he could consistently hit major-league pitching at a high level. However, if he really is what we’ve seen this year when he’s played he will command $20-$25 million a year on the market although that will probably come with some strings in the form of a games played incentive. I would love to see the Twins be the team that signed him to that contract but I do recognize that our resources are not unlimited.

I do think there is a way to sign them both without straining the budget if we are willing to make a couple of hard decisions. First, we need to know we can sign them to these contracts. Then, we need to offload some payroll. The candidates are obvious. Trade Cruz for pitching prospect(s), and replace him with a combination of Sano, Garver, Rooker and off day starters. Makes the team weaker in the short run but frankly all we’re ever going to get from Cruz is the short run. Trade Donaldson Without sending much money even if it means getting a lower return. This is a salary dump to sign the other two guys so you have to know you can sign the other two guys before you do this. Replace him with  Arraez as the every day third baseman, with Gordon and Miranda coming up behind.  Then, if you have to to make the numbers work, trade Kepler. The combination of Larnach and Kirilloff can handle the corner outfield spots, with Sano and Garver handling first base, or Kiriloff can be moved to first base with Rooker/Refsnyder/Garlick being the other corner outfielder. By doing this you free roughly $40 million a year off the current payroll which you then give to Berrios and Buxton to sign them long-term. We don’t have a lot of other long-term big money commitments coming up since Larnach and Kiriloff are very early in their careers. Same for Arraez, who also probably won’t ever command huge money.

The big negative is this approach would hamstring us from signing big money free agents for the pitching staff but I frankly don’t think we’re going to do that anyway. I would advocate for giving Rogers three years/$20 million, giving Robles two years/$6-8 million and filling in from there. We have Duffy and Alcala in their less expensive years still, so we’re only looking to fill 3 to 4 other spots. We stunk at it this year but have been successful and others. This team doesn’t have the payroll to be filled with strong, established players in all areas.