26 year old Cuban SS Alexander Guerrero

[Oxtung]

Wolfson has linked the Twins to 26 year old Cuban SS Alexander Guerrero. He apparently defected in January of this year but has been unsignable so far because US Office of Foreign Assets Control has yet to "unblock" him. In Cuba Guerrero OPS'd .997 or better each year between 2009-2011. There are supposedly three teams interested in him; the Twins, Dodgers and an unnamed third suitor.

 

We like him," said Twins VP Mike Radcliff. "We're still watching him."

 

I have been very critical of the Twins off season approach to free agency but that would turn around in a hurry if the Twins signed a legitimate future piece like Guerrero is believed to be. There is some question if he can stick at SS in the majors but considering our MI situation currently combined with our history I would love it if the Twins took a risk like this. We aren't exactly overflowing with talent at 2B at this moment. Rosario looks very nice but he is still just a prospect and Dozier while looking competent is certainly not setting the world afire. I would be ecstatic if this deal was completed!

 

Three Teams Vying For Cuban Shortstop Guerrero: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

 

P.S. Off topic a bit but how do you make a link appear as a word. So if I typed "you can view the full story here.", how do you make "here" a link?

[Oxtung]

Also there is a Baseball America scouting report on him but it require insider access. If somebody wanted to hit the high points for those of us who are too cheap or poor that would be great!

 

Alexander Guerrero Scouting Report - BaseballAmerica.com

[Fatt Crapps]

Complete Scouting Profile on Cuban Middle Infielder Alexander Guerrero | Bleacher Report

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Raw power, big swing likely to struggle with breaking stuff. Unlikely to remain at SS.

[Mr. Brooks]

Terry Ryan won't spend what it takes to sign a legit Cuban.

[cmb0252]

I'm not a fan. If he could actually play SS I would want the Twins to go for him. Dozier will do just fine bridging the 2B spot till Rosario is ready next year.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

P.S. Off topic a bit but how do you make a link appear as a word. So if I typed "you can view the full story here.", how do you make "here" a link?

 

Write a word like HERE. Highlight the word and click on the Link above (to the right of the emoticons) and enter the URL.

 

Then people can read all about the Baseball-Reference data on Josmil Pinto.

[Oxtung]

Write a word like HERE. Highlight the word and click on the Link above (to the right of the emoticons).

Then people can read all about the Baseball-Reference data on Josmil Pinto.

 

thanks

[Mr. Brooks]

I'm not a fan. If he could actually play SS I would want the Twins to go for him. Dozier will do just fine bridging the 2B spot till Rosario is ready next year.

 

Rosario is a nice prospect, but he is hardly a can't miss prospect.

You can never have too many good prospects to throw at a position. Proclaiming 2B solved for the next decade would be a mistake, IMO.

[Oxtung]

I'm not a fan. If he could actually play SS I would want the Twins to go for him. Dozier will do just fine bridging the 2B spot till Rosario is ready next year.

 

As Brooks stated above there is nothing guaranteeing Rosario's success. However, if the Twins did sign Guerrero and then Rosario came up and tore it up, isn't that a good problem? Perhaps one of them can fill a hole elsewhere on the roster or if both are quality players. Or one can get moved for a missing piece or more prospects. If on the other hand Rosario fails then you still have a shot with Guerrero or vice versa. There doesn't seem to be a lot of downside to signing him, at the worst the Twins lose out on some cash but, unless you truly believe the Twins will splurge in the near future, that isn't a big deal (well maybe if your last name is Pohlad....)

[darin617]

Just spend the money and quit being so cheap. With Morneau, Pelfrey, and Carrol(bought out),the Twins will have a payroll a little over $60M. So much for those good old days when Target Field opened and the Twins had $100M+ payroll.

[cmb0252]

Rosario is a nice prospect, but he is hardly a can't miss prospect.

You can never have too many good prospects to throw at a position. Proclaiming 2B solved for the next decade would be a mistake, IMO.

 

I never claimed he will be our 2B for the next decade. I just don't see the value of throwing $30+ million on a 26 year old 2B who hasn't played in a game in a year and a half. Maybe I'm jaded by the Nishi signing but I'm just not a fan of this guy.

[Mr. Brooks]

I never claimed he will be our 2B for the next decade. I just don't see the value of throwing $30+ million on a 26 year old 2B who hasn't played in a game in a year and a half. Maybe I'm jaded by the Nishi signing but I'm just not a fan of this guy.

 

We can't hit the "Cuban lottery" if we don't play it.

In order to have a chance to get ourselves a Chapman, Cespedes, or Puig, we are going to have to be willing to spend big money on a completely unproven commodity.

If you are fine completely ignoring an avenue that has proven capable of providing legit superstar talent, that is fine, but I'm not.

I'm with Ruesse, I want a Cuban!!

[ThePuck]

Just spend the money and quit being so cheap. With Morneau, Pelfrey, and Carrol(bought out),the Twins will have a payroll a little over $60M. So much for those good old days when Target Field opened and the Twins had $100M+ payroll.

 

Don't forget Blackburn's contract ends too...so Morny's 14M, Pelfrey's 4M, Blackburn's 5.5M and Carroll's 3.5M. 27M gone. That puts us around 55M.

[Monkeypaws]

Don't forget Blackburn's contract ends too...so Morny's 14M, Pelfrey's 4M, Blackburn's 5.5M and Carroll's 3.5M. 27M gone. That puts us around 55M.

 

Wow, it's like a trip in the way-back machine - I'm suddenly hungry for a Dome dog.

 

All the more incredible when about 40% of that goes to a single individual.

[Winston Smith]

http://img0.etsystatic.com/000/0/5130828/il_fullxfull.92804080.jpg

[Boone]

I know people will criticize Ryan for not shelling out big bucks to sign this guy but I don't think signing him makes much sense because it doesn't fit with the timeline of our prospects.

 

Here are the ages of the Twins top prospects in 4 years:

Buxton-23, Sano 24, Rosario 25, Stewart 22, Meyer 27, Berrios 23, Hicks 27, Arcia 26, Gibson 29, May 27, Kepler 24, Polanco 24, Harrison 24, Santana 26, etc.

 

In other words, the Twins have a ton of young talent that has yet to reach their prime (with the exception of Gibson). Guerrero, on the other hand, will be 30 and reaching the downturn of his career. What's the point of shelling out big bucks for a big risk (it's tough to scout Cubans) for a player who will be in his prime when the Twins are rebuilding. It's important to remember that rebuilding through the minors seems to be the way to go (see: Giants, Rangers, Pirates, Yanks of 90s etc. as opposed to the current Angels and Yankees).

 

As for the Twins being "cheap" right now, if that's what it takes to lock up Buxton, Sano, and co. to longterm deals before they hit their prime, that's fine with me.

[Willihammer]

Raw power, big swing likely to struggle with breaking stuff. Unlikely to remain at SS.

 

Why, because of the swing? How's his glove?

[ThePuck]

As for the Twins being "cheap" right now, if that's what it takes to lock up Buxton, Sano, and co. to longterm deals before they hit their prime, that's fine with me.

 

Do you understand how far down the road those contracts will be due? Sano and Buxton won't even be arbitration eligible till, at the very earliest, 2018...and 2018 is if they get promoted as early as mid-next season, which would be super-fast for Buxton. 2018 would also be Mauer's last year in his contract.

 

On top of that, think about all the payroll coming off in the next couple years...and the extra 25M we're going to get because of the MLB TV contract. There is no spending now that will affect our ability to lock up ANY of the prospects we're hoping become worth a big contract.

[howeda7]

If he can stick at SS they should do it. Even if he can't, they need to start spending money. The attendance has been resilient thus far, but if they lose another 90 next year with a $65 million payroll, it will be a ghost town.

[John Bonnes]

I was excited to see them chasing a shortstop, period. But if he can't stay there, I'm just as happy to roll with Dozier and Rosario. In fact, I found myself wondering again tonight if they can move Dozier back to shortstop if Rosario forces his way up here.

[Zephrin]

Just spend the money and quit being so cheap. With Morneau, Pelfrey, and Carrol(bought out),the Twins will have a payroll a little over $60M. So much for those good old days when Target Field opened and the Twins had $100M+ payroll.

 

Aren't we passed the whole Payroll = success delusion? SF, ChiSox, ChiCubs, Philly, DC, NYY, Toronto, and LAA all have payrolls over $100M - some significantly so - and have very little chance of sniffing the post season this year. Tampa, Pitt and Oak all started the season in the bottom 5 in payroll, and Bal and Cle also at least started below $100M. All 5 of those teams have at least realistic shots at the post season. If the Twins had added 2 Aces and a Bat this off-season they would have a payroll around $120 and probably be on pace for 80-85 wins. Is that good use of money?

[nicksaviking]

I was excited to see them chasing a shortstop, period. But if he can't stay there, I'm just as happy to roll with Dozier and Rosario. In fact, I found myself wondering again tonight if they can move Dozier back to shortstop if Rosario forces his way up here.

 

I agree that SS is what they need to aim for. I have a feeling, unfortunately, that his adaquacy at the position is not something that will be able to be accurately judged until he is actually playing organized ball, and he won't be doing that until he signs a contract.

 

I think if a club thinks there is a reasonable chance he sticks, you're going to need to pay him like there is a 100% chance and I hope the Twins are willing to do so. I

 

think there are likely plenty of guys who have been moved from SS over the years due to percieved weaknesses when in fact they likely could have adaquately performed at the postion. In fact, I always thought that had JJ Hardy been in the Twins orgainzation, he would have been moved to 3B long before he made the majors. I think his size, lack of speed and percieved lack of range would have caused the move long ago.

[nicksaviking]

Aren't we passed the whole Payroll = success delusion? SF, ChiSox, ChiCubs, Philly, DC, NYY, Toronto, and LAA all have payrolls over $100M - some significantly so - and have very little chance of sniffing the post season this year. Tampa, Pitt and Oak all started the season in the bottom 5 in payroll, and Bal and Cle also at least started below $100M. All 5 of those teams have at least realistic shots at the post season. If the Twins had added 2 Aces and a Bat this off-season they would have a payroll around $120 and probably be on pace for 80-85 wins. Is that good use of money?

 

Please, are you truely arguing that a higher payroll offers no advantage? If the big market, win-now Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox didn't think payroll was significant, why would they utilize those resources.

 

Feel free to argue that a small payroll can still win, but don't pretend that you aren't in need of the stars aligning to do so. Increased payroll gives you a much larger margin of error.

[Zephrin]

Please, are you truely arguing that a higher payroll offers no advantage? If the big market, win-now Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox didn't think payroll was significant, why would they utilize those resources.

 

Feel free to argue that a small payroll can still win, but don't pretend that you aren't in need of the stars aligning to do so. Increased payroll gives you a much larger margin of error.

 

My argument is that the stars clearly had not aligned for this year. Frankly, the goal is to win championships. Even if they sank another $50-60M into this team I don't think that would have happened, and then we would be stuck with long-term contracts for players that didn't get us there. That doesn't make sense, and you can't tell me that fans would be rushing back in droves to see an 80-85 win team.

 

Now, should they be putting increased funds into the system to sign prospects if they aren't spending at the big league level? Absolutely. But We've seen the Twins hit in the Int'l market regularly of late with Sano, Kepler, Polanco, and possibly Minier, to name a few. If the Twins don't sign this guy should we not give them the benefit of the doubt from a talent standpoint, even if you are leery of their financial practices?

[Oxtung]

My argument is that the stars clearly had not aligned for this year. Frankly, the goal is to win championships. Even if they sank another $50-60M into this team I don't think that would have happened, and then we would be stuck with long-term contracts for players that didn't get us there. That doesn't make sense, and you can't tell me that fans would be rushing back in droves to see an 80-85 win team.

 

Now, should they be putting increased funds into the system to sign prospects if they aren't spending at the big league level? Absolutely. But We've seen the Twins hit in the Int'l market regularly of late with Sano, Kepler, Polanco, and possibly Minier, to name a few. If the Twins don't sign this guy should we not give them the benefit of the doubt from a talent standpoint, even if you are leery of their financial practices?

 

Two things. First, 85 wins and the Twins would be a contender in the central, so yes, I believe the fans would be there in droves.

 

Second, you can no longer pump money into prospects anymore. Everything is capped. The only place you can freely spend is in Free Agency. Since the Twins will have $40-80 million in payroll flexibility and the only place to spend it is in free agency and the Twins have huge holes that could use upgrading....well you can see why people are upset.

[The Wise One]

Please, are you truely arguing that a higher payroll offers no advantage? If the big market, win-now Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox didn't think payroll was significant, why would they utilize those resources.

 

Feel free to argue that a small payroll can still win, but don't pretend that you aren't in need of the stars aligning to do so. Increased payroll gives you a much larger margin of error.

 

Do people not read what Darrin was responding to? The answer to the question is talent wins. The hard part is assembling the talent. Regardless, the size of the payroll matters didlysquat. It iswhat you sign and for how long. There are still only 25 roster spots.2 pieces of dead wood can hurt the roster. Don't believe me? Use the search and type incatcher and Drew. The key on the free agency bit is to figure out which players are going to decline later rather than sooner.

[Zephrin]

Two things. First, 85 wins and the Twins would be a contender in the central, so yes, I believe the fans would be there in droves.

 

Second, you can no longer pump money into prospects anymore. Everything is capped. The only place you can freely spend is in Free Agency. Since the Twins will have $40-80 million in payroll flexibility and the only place to spend it is in free agency and the Twins have huge holes that could use upgrading....well you can see why people are upset.

 

Seems to me, the Twins can't win. When they do spend money (Mauer, Morneau) half the comments are about how overpaid they are and what big albatross contracts they have. Out the other side of their mouths they want the team to spend more. (The biggest complaint being not re-signing Santana, who clearly did not deliver over his next contract.) When they have a solid team that makes the playoffs more years than not, people complain that they can't get over the hump. But when they get to the point that what they have isn't working and they scrap it for "Operation 2015" they get criticized just as much. At the end of the day, only winning it all satisfies. You can't make a realistic argument that they were going to win it all this year regardless of what they did last winter.

[Oxtung]

Seems to me, the Twins can't win. When they do spend money (Mauer, Morneau) half the comments are about how overpaid they are and what big albatross contracts they have. Out the other side of their mouths they want the team to spend more. (The biggest complaint being not re-signing Santana, who clearly did not deliver over his next contract.)

Please point out where someone has said both those things on this forum. I can't think of an example. TBH I can only think of perhaps 2 posters that think Mauer's contract is holding us back. For myself you're barking up the wrong tree. I think both the Morneau and Mauer contracts were both good contracts. Hell I even like that they went out and tried for a home run with Nishioka. They failed, but I applaud them for trying to find a long term solution at SS.

When they have a solid team that makes the playoffs more years than not, people complain that they can't get over the hump. But when they get to the point that what they have isn't working and they scrap it for "Operation 2015" they get criticized just as much. At the end of the day, only winning it all satisfies. You can't make a realistic argument that they were going to win it all this year regardless of what they did last winter.

 

If the Twins shouldn't sign anyone in FA because they don't have the talent to win the WS and they can't win the WS because they don't have the talent, how do you break that loop? There are only 3 paths to increasing talent. Draft, international signings and free agency. Seems to me the Twins are cutting of their nose to spite their face. There is literally no draw back to signing FA's right now. Even if they fail spectacularly the Twins still will have tens of millions to throw at the problem the next year.

[nicksaviking]

Do people not read what Darrin was responding to? The answer to the question is talent wins. The hard part is assembling the talent. Regardless, the size of the payroll matters didlysquat. It iswhat you sign and for how long. There are still only 25 roster spots.2 pieces of dead wood can hurt the roster. Don't believe me? Use the search and type incatcher and Drew. The key on the free agency bit is to figure out which players are going to decline later rather than sooner.

 

I don't think I understand what you are trying to say, it seems like every sentence in this paragraph is a contradiction to the previous one. Is your final arguement trying to say the reason the Twins haven't been winning was not because of payroll but because of Drew Butera?