Anyone but Appel, Gray, Bryant, Frazier, Stewart. Manaea is exactly the guy they would have picked in the past, we've all seen how that's worked out. He may fall out of the first if there is any substantial injury after today.

Manaea is exactly the guy they would have picked in the past, we've all seen how that's worked out.

 

Is Manaea a toolsy OF? :-)

Manaea is exactly the guy they would have picked in the past, we've all seen how that's worked out.

 

Care to elaborate?

The top 3 seem to be pretty well set for everyone. Beyond that, you seem to see 4-6 names tossed around with no clear indications of superior talent within that band.

 

Of course we don't want the Twins to reach for a less talented player to save some money, but would it be such a bad strategy if one of the players in that band was willing to swing a deal to go #4 and load up on extra slot money for later picks? I'm afraid fans are going to overreact to this scenario if it happens.

I am all in on two guys (assuming Appel, Gray and Bryant are gone)...Stewart and Frazier. Please no to the HS catchers at #4. Going under slot for a guy like Shipley or another high upside arm is tolerable, but the bust rate in HS catchers is far too great.

 

So to answer the OPs question: McGuire

The top 3 seem to be pretty well set for everyone. Beyond that, you seem to see 4-6 names tossed around with no clear indications of superior talent within that band.

 

Of course we don't want the Twins to reach for a less talented player to save some money, but would it be such a bad strategy if one of the players in that band was willing to swing a deal to go #4 and load up on extra slot money for later picks? I'm afraid fans are going to overreact to this scenario if it happens.

 

The problem is that underslot pick appears to be a HS catcher which looks to be in the next tier of talent. Considering the Twins pitching need I think Stewart is almost a lock to be picked but Shipley is growing on me.

The problem is that underslot pick appears to be a HS catcher which looks to be in the next tier of talent. Considering the Twins pitching need I think Stewart is almost a lock to be picked but Shipley is growing on me.

 

Some rumors don't make it a reality. You'd be okay with an underslot deal if Shipley were the pick?

Care to elaborate?

 

Sure...perhaps I'm mistaken, but he was a low 90's pitcher until Cape Cod last summer. Then spiked up to 95, then was back down this year. People were wondering about his "decrease" in velocity, but I think the bigger question is about the "increase" last summer that is the bigger concern. Picking 4th overall, I dont think you go for a small school guy expected to be a low 90's fastball that cannot go and dominate hitters and may be a #3 guy at best (my opinion...). Maybe later in the first round or later rounds, but not 4th overall. Appel and Gray can be those dominating guys, Stewart could be as well (with signability concerns there), I just dont see Manaea as one of those guys. He's not the classic pitch to contact guy, but not more on that end if the velocity is not there, which is where I was going with when I compared him to guys we have drafted prior, and not like the guys we have looked to pick up one way or another recently in May, Meyer, and Berrios.

My point is it seems like a lot of folks would rip an underslot deal no matter what because of the Twins' reputation of being cheap. In reality, it'd be just fine for the right player. So, where's the floor of who would be okay for a deal like that?

 

For me, (outside of the top 3) that floor contains Stewart, Shipley, and Frazier with Meadows, Moran, and Manaea as borderline.

Some rumors don't make it a reality. You'd be okay with an underslot deal if Shipley were the pick?

 

Shipley is like a survivor on my draft list. Manaea has been dropping. Meadows (and Frazier to a lesser extent) have been dropping. Moran hasn't really impressed me. At this point Shipley is probably my #5 in this draft.

 

closer to the top of my list - check

position of need - check

okay - check

 

I hope that this saves at least 500K but there could also be an argument that Shipley is better than Stewart. The Twins could certainly think this way.

Underslot only works if there is a guy in round 2 to sign, and they succeed in signing him. What are the odd of that working? 20%? 40%? I just think it is too risky to pass on potentially elite talent, get a lesser talent, and MAYBE sign another less talent....and how much better is that player you take in round 2, than the guy you would have taken anyway?

 

If you could get Moran and Manaea, would you rather have that, or Bryant/Stewart?

Underslot only works if there is a guy in round 2 to sign, and they succeed in signing him. What are the odd of that working? 20%? 40%? I just think it is too risky to pass on potentially elite talent, get a lesser talent, and MAYBE sign another less talent....and how much better is that player you take in round 2, than the guy you would have taken anyway?

 

If you could get Moran and Manaea, would you rather have that, or Bryant/Stewart?

 

I agree with you completely about not passing on talent, but we don't see a guy who is clearly superior on talent for #4...

 

No one wants them to reach, but if it's a coin flip and one guy is willing to take less... why not? Even if it's only 20-40% chance of paying off like you're saying.

With Manaea's injury AND if, big if, Stewart tells teams not to take him the Twins will be put in a rough spot. That leaves Frazier (who they have been heavily linked to), Moran (gross), and Meadows. Just a bad year for the Twins to have the #4 pick.

I don't think it is a bad year to have a top pick. ESPN had a story today redoing the 2003 draft and had a link to a 2002 redo. To tell you the truth, the picks are hilarious. In both drafts, the top 5's were filled with guys who never made the bigs. I feel it is less about WHO you draft, and more about WHO drafts them. The Twins do a great job of developing high school hitters, so why not go with what you know you can have success at?

I don't think it is a bad year to have a top pick. ESPN had a story today redoing the 2003 draft and had a link to a 2002 redo. To tell you the truth, the picks are hilarious. In both drafts, the top 5's were filled with guys who never made the bigs. I feel it is less about WHO you draft, and more about WHO drafts them. The Twins do a great job of developing high school hitters, so why not go with what you know you can have success at?

 

That's a fair point.

With Manaea's injury AND if, big if, Stewart tells teams not to take him the Twins will be put in a rough spot. That leaves Frazier (who they have been heavily linked to), Moran (gross), and Meadows. Just a bad year for the Twins to have the #4 pick.

 

It seems like Meadows & Frazier have slipped a little lately. After the top three, the only other player who seems like a high impact, top line prospect is Stewart. The Twins could certainly use a power arm.

 

I say take Stewart...if he doesn't sign they get the #5 pick next year & that seems better than Moran, Frazier or Meadows.

I don't think it is a bad year to have a top pick. ESPN had a story today redoing the 2003 draft and had a link to a 2002 redo. To tell you the truth, the picks are hilarious. In both drafts, the top 5's were filled with guys who never made the bigs. I feel it is less about WHO you draft, and more about WHO drafts them. The Twins do a great job of developing high school hitters, so why not go with what you know you can have success at?

 

Great point. These were both interesting reads and clear indicators why you don't "punt" picks.

If we don't get one of Appel, Gray, Bryant, or Stewart I will be extremely disappointed. I don't like all of this talk about going for Shipley or McGuire to sign them under-slot.

I don't think it is a bad year to have a top pick. ESPN had a story today redoing the 2003 draft and had a link to a 2002 redo. To tell you the truth, the picks are hilarious. In both drafts, the top 5's were filled with guys who never made the bigs. I feel it is less about WHO you draft, and more about WHO drafts them. The Twins do a great job of developing high school hitters, so why not go with what you know you can have success at?

 

It is an interesting point, and I don't disagree, but I think the consensus isn't that it's a bad year to have a top pick, just that it's a bad year to have top pick just outside of the top 3.

 

Personally, I'd be disappointed if they picked up McGuire. I'm aboard the Stewart train too.

McGuire

I have no problem taking our future catcher at #4. Maybe it's just me, but it seems 50% of all top pitching prospects are injured, and the other 50% are just waiting their turn. I would always take a position player this high in the draft.

Any of the OFers would really bother me. Stewart concerns me--unless he convinces me that a MLB career is his passion and that FB was just a HS fancy. A kid who struggles the least bit might start listening to "feelers" from FB coaches. Those type of distractions might derail a BB career.

Any of the OFers would really bother me. Stewart concerns me--unless he convinces me that a MLB career is his passion and that FB was just a HS fancy. A kid who struggles the least bit might start listening to "feelers" from FB coaches. Those type of distractions might derail a BB career.

 

So who doesn't concern you?

 

I have no problem taking our future catcher at #4. Maybe it's just me, but it seems 50% of all top pitching prospects are injured, and the other 50% are just waiting their turn. I would always take a position player this high in the draft.

 

I find it ironic that you would avoid a starter early in the draft because of risk but support the choice of a HS catcher.