Ranking the Twins Weakest Positions

[Cody Christie]

No team can have a perfect roster heading into the season. For the Twins, there are weak spots on the roster, but there is hope for some of those positions.

Image courtesy of Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

In recent weeks, there has been a lot of analysis of team and player projections here at Twins Daily. Not all of these models are perfect, but it gives fans a sense of reasonable expectations for each player and the team. Some players exceed their expected performance every year, and others struggle to meet expectations. Here are the weakest positions on the Twins roster and how they may impact the club in 2023. 

3. Right Field- Projected WAR: 2.7
Max Kepler's name was in the rumor mill for most of the winter, but the Twins seemingly didn't get an offer they liked, so he's set to be an everyday player. There's no question that Kepler is one of baseball's best defensive right-fielders. Last season, Kepler hit .227/.318/.348 (.666) with 18 doubles and nine home runs. Minnesota has other options in right field if the Twins need to use Kepler in more of a platoon role, including Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner. It's an important season for Kepler because the Twins have a $10 million team option for 2024. He'd need to outperform his projections for the team not to buy out his contract for $1 million.  

Reason for Optimism: There is some optimism that Kepler will benefit from the limits on defensive shifts. He has already picked up a few hits this spring that might have been outs if defenders were allowed to have more exaggerated shifts. This spring, he has already discussed how he won't need to overthink in the batter's box with three infielders on one side of second base. Reports also have him in a good mindset after spending the offseason overseas to mentally reset himself while recovering from a toe fracture. 

2. Left Field- Projected WAR: 2.1
Left field ranks close to the top for the Twins in early season projections because Joey Gallo is coming off his worst professional season. In 126 games, he posted a 79 OPS+ with 163 strikeouts. If Gallo can't improve, the Twins have depth in left field with players like Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner. Out of that trio, only Gordon projects to make the Opening Day roster. Larnach and Wallner will head to Triple-A and need to hit their way back to the big leagues. Other top prospects like Royce Lewis and Austin Martin are options to take over a corner outfield spot later in the season. 

Reason for Optimism: The Twins hope Gallo has a bounce-back season and can be closer to the All-Star level player he was in the past. FanGraphs projects his OPS to increase by 93 points, which would still be lower than his career mark (.794 OPS). Left field is the easiest position for the Twins players to exceed their expected performance, and it is the position I am least worried about on this list. 

1. First Base- Projected WAR: 1.9
FanGraphs recently ranked the weakest positions on every contending team, and first base came out as the low spot on the Twins. Alex Kirilloff is a question mark at first base since he has averaged just over 50 games in the last two seasons. Projection systems won't help Kirilloff because he has tried to play through his wrist injury, and his on-field performance has suffered. The Twins won't rely solely on Kirilloff at first base. Kyle Farmer, Joey Gallo, Jose Miranda, and Donovan Solano can all play first base if Kirilloff is forced to miss time again in 2023. 

Reason for Optimism: The Twins hope Kirilloff's surgery to shorten his ulnar bone will put him back on track to where he was as a top prospect. Fans have seen flashes of him being an elite hitter, but his wrist injury saps power from his swing. If this most recent wrist surgery is a long-term solution to his wrist woes, he can be one of the club's best overall hitters. 

Luckily, all the Twins' weakest positions are in corner spots which can be easier to address during the season. As the trade deadline approaches, first basemen and corner outfielders are usually easier to acquire and have lower acquisition costs. The Twins also have multiple top prospects close to the big leagues that can step into an everyday role if the club feels like they are ready. 

Do you agree with these rankings? Is there a reason for optimism at each of the positions? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

View full article

[old nurse]

Fangraphs describes a 2 WAR player as a solid player. If there is only one position that has a less than solid player then the Twins are not doing too bad.  

[Fire Dan Gladden]

3 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Fangraphs describes a 2 WAR player as a solid player. If there is only one position that has a less than solid player then the Twins are not doing too bad.  

You beat me to the punch.  If our worst position is a 2 WAR, this is going to be a fun season.

[Fred]

Any season that they don't have to rely on someone like Jake Cave should be good fun. I'm happy about all the depth on the 40 man, but I think their catching in the minors could be stronger. They have a couple of years to work on that. My hope rises every Spring. I'm getting excited!

[gunnarthor]

58 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Fangraphs describes a 2 WAR player as a solid player. If there is only one position that has a less than solid player then the Twins are not doing too bad.  

Player, not position. Fangraphs have the Twins tied with Cleveland in total projected WAR 11th overall at about 44 WAR. (It's essentially a 7 or 8 way tie, really). And the article actually had DH as a 2,0 WAR overall position.

[Doctor Gast]

I totally disagree with these rankings, I feel we are pretty strong at those positions. But again I mainly look at the defensive side of any positions and how much quality depth there. With GG Taylor in the OF, I feel pretty good if we need him to sub. Even offensively, I like what Kepler, Gallo, Taylor have done this ST and I'd include Gordon too even if he hasn't played out there this ST.

The 2 positions I'm most worried about is

#2 SS- If Correa goes down for any time at all, the only adequate sub is Farmer which against vast majority of RHPs offensively he's well sub par. After him we have no one until Lewis returns.

#1 C- Vasquez is great defensively but sub par offensively yet if he goes down IMO we have nobody adequate to step up. Teams like CLE will run on Jeffers all day, plus blocking isn't that great. I've been wanting to obtain soon MLB ready Endy Rodriguez (PIT) (but now he's getting too expensive) or O'Hoppe (LAA) or at least less expensive Quero (LAA) who can be ready in '24. To help shore up our lack of now & future depth. 

 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think it is interesting how much the Twins roster has changed in just the past few years.  RF, LF, and 1B are three "power hitter" positions and we only sort of have that covered with Gallo/Kepler.  Kiriloff might become that, but he's not there yet.  I don't think that relatively a "2 WAR" player is bad, but those are the positions that tend to be occupied by stronger hitters than we currently have in place.  So, compared to the rest of the league, we don't look very good here.

 

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

Player, not position. Fangraphs have the Twins tied with Cleveland in total projected WAR 11th overall at about 44 WAR. (It's essentially a 7 or 8 way tie, really). And the article actually had DH as a 2,0 WAR overall position.

The article above here on Twins Daily you might have read mentioned Left field, right field, and first base as the areas of concern. 2-3 war is considered strong play as defined by fangraphs in their glossary. If you look at the blog again you will notice that 2 of the positions are reported to project 2-3 war. That would suggest by definition of war that there is adequate play out of those positions. 

[mikelink45]

Our weakest position is the BP.  

Then if Gallo does not bounce back and Kiriloff is hurt then two areas - 1B and OF because major areas of concern.  I know you list RF and LF separate, but I just lump them together.

[gunnarthor]

47 minutes ago, old nurse said:

The article above here on Twins Daily you might have read mentioned Left field, right field, and first base as the areas of concern. 2-3 war is considered strong play as defined by fangraphs in their glossary. If you look at the blog again you will notice that 2 of the positions are reported to project 2-3 war. That would suggest by definition of war that there is adequate play out of those positions. 

? 

I think one of us is simply talking past the other. 

[gunnarthor]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

I totally disagree with these rankings, I feel we are pretty strong at those positions. But again I mainly look at the defensive side of any positions and how much quality depth there. With GG Taylor in the OF, I feel pretty good if we need him to sub. Even offensively, I like what Kepler, Gallo, Taylor have done this ST and I'd include Gordon too even if he hasn't played out there this ST.

The 2 positions I'm most worried about is

#2 SS- If Correa goes down for any time at all, the only adequate sub is Farmer which against vast majority of RHPs offensively he's well sub par. After him we have no one until Lewis returns.

#1 C- Vasquez is great defensively but sub par offensively yet if he goes down IMO we have nobody adequate to step up. Teams like CLE will run on Jeffers all day, plus blocking isn't that great. I've been wanting to obtain soon MLB ready Endy Rodriguez (PIT) (but now he's getting too expensive) or O'Hoppe (LAA) or at least less expensive Quero (LAA) who can be ready in '24. To help shore up our lack of now & future depth. 

 

I think you're right that if Correa gets hurt, we're in trouble. But that's pretty true for most players of his caliber. You don't lose a 5 WAR player and just shrug it off. I also agree with you on catcher, although fangraphs projections are a lot more bullish than I would have guessed. Hopefully they are right. But I think this article was, more or less, looking at projections and the projections have some health built into it. 

[Doctor Gast]

54 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I think you're right that if Correa gets hurt, we're in trouble. But that's pretty true for most players of his caliber. You don't lose a 5 WAR player and just shrug it off. I also agree with you on catcher, although fangraphs projections are a lot more bullish than I would have guessed. Hopefully they are right. But I think this article was, more or less, looking at projections and the projections have some health built into it. 

You're 100% right gunnarther. Cody asked if we agreed with the rankings. Of course fangraphs spits out their data. I just don't agree that RF, LF & 1B is in worse shape than SS or catcher. CF, SS & catcher are prime positions which need more quality depth than RF,LF & 1B which is the basis of my ranking of our weakest positions

[DocBauer]

I think I would agree with these 3 choices. The good news is I think the REASONS FOR OPTIMISM are pretty legit.

LF: Assuming things stay as they are, I have a hunch we're going to see the "old" Gallo from his Texas days. He's having a very good ST thus far, and I think he's welcoming a fresh start with the Twins. I think he just wasn't a good fit in NY and things spiraled for him. I don't know if he's going to hit .200 or .220. And I know there's going to be a lot of K's. But the power is great and I think the OB % will be back up to his normal range.

RF: Despite being a long and hopeful fan of Kepler, I'm a little less optimistic in him. The changes in the shift might help him. But somewhere between 2019 and the last 2yrs, he just stopped barreling up on the ball.  Can he reverse this trend and start hitting the ball HARD again?

I'm not so sure the best option for 2023...and beyond...isn't a healthy (finally) Larnach being one of the starting corners opposite Gallo.

1B: Obviously, major question mark in regard to Kirilloff. I like hearing reports from him, and the Twins, that he's got soreness in the wrist but not pain. That would seem to indicate a normal progression from general healing and getting back to actual baseball work. And I'm OK if his gradual ramp up isn't enough time to be ready for opening day and he needs a little more time. The long game with him is the important thing. He's a potential stud in the heart of the lineup for many years if this procedure works.

Gallo, Miranda, Solano, and even Julien provide options, (hopefully short term), and depth there. I am not opposed to either/both of Larnach and Wallner getting a 1B mit and working at the spot to just see. But both those guys run better than many believe, especially Wallner, and both have great arms. I think they just fit better in the OF, but why not take a look see at some point? I mean, you want to get all of your best players on the field and in the lineup as much as you can, right? Nothing wrong with greater flexibility.

These 3 spots might be the "weakest" positions, but I don't know that they are necessarily "weak" per say. I like the optimism at each spot, and the depth of possibilities. 

 

[GNess]

Interesting take on what makes a position relatively weak.  

It is only ST but both Gallo and Kepler seem on the right track. If they both produce somewhere above their career median the Twins line up will be pretty good. They both are + defenders as well.

[Eris]

LF. Larnach had 1.1 WAR last season playing in 25 games. If he is healthy for  even half the season he should be able to put up at least 2 WAR. 
 

The position to be worried about is 3B as Miranda has not been tested there defensively. Of course he is an option at first base as well. 
 

 

[TwinsDr2021]

16 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I totally disagree with these rankings, I feel we are pretty strong at those positions. But again I mainly look at the defensive side of any positions and how much quality depth there. With GG Taylor in the OF, I feel pretty good if we need him to sub. Even offensively, I like what Kepler, Gallo, Taylor have done this ST and I'd include Gordon too even if he hasn't played out there this ST.

The 2 positions I'm most worried about is

#2 SS- If Correa goes down for any time at all, the only adequate sub is Farmer which against vast majority of RHPs offensively he's well sub par. After him we have no one until Lewis returns.

#1 C- Vasquez is great defensively but sub par offensively yet if he goes down IMO we have nobody adequate to step up. Teams like CLE will run on Jeffers all day, plus blocking isn't that great. I've been wanting to obtain soon MLB ready Endy Rodriguez (PIT) (but now he's getting too expensive) or O'Hoppe (LAA) or at least less expensive Quero (LAA) who can be ready in '24. To help shore up our lack of now & future depth. 

 

Based on your rankings this Front Office should be fired? The two most positions you are worried about are the two where the front office went out and spent the most money? Isn't Correa's back up Farmer, two all world short stops prospects, Solano, Gordon and if all else fails putting Polanco back there?

I get catcher and I am 100% on board with that being worrisome.

But I am more worried about the depth at Outfield, because Taylor has basically been terrible with his bat his whole career, Gallo and Kepler are question marks, Gordon isn't a full time player at any position, and then it goes to AK and Larnach who are in their third year of this and haven't done really anything, and then we are on to Wallner who most say needs more time in the minors and Celestino, Martin. Thinking of starting outfield of Taylor, Gordon and Wallner made me throw up a bit in my mouth.

I will say the Twins depth is better this year than last but a few injuries to key spots (including SS) could be bad, real bad.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Based on your rankings this Front Office should be fired?

Not at all. We've been deeper at SS & CF the last 2 yrs. than we have been for years. IMO the depth at the corners is over kill. Saying that SS is the 2nd most concerning position, is saying how pleased I am in how well stocked we are. It'd be hard for me to come up with my 3rd weakest position. Catcher is really my only worry, which can be easily remedied if they react quickly.

[annismark]

Catcher.  Meh starter. Meh backup. Meh minor league prospects. No depth. No upside.  

[dex8425]

Wait, why didn't we sign Josh Bell again?

[Bodie]

Most worrying position(s)?  That is really a no-brainer IMHO.  It is pitching and it's use and abuse by Rocco!  No bullpen I can think of can take a full season of Baldelli's 4-plus innings of relief per game.  Either the physical strain will fell several arms over the season, or overuse will expose why they are bullpen guys and not starters.

And no, I don't think that can be fixed with quantity (the only real option for the Twins) or quality arms in reserve.  Simply put,  no team  past or present could stand up to the new-wave style  of Rocco (backed to the hilt by the front office) or anyone else asking what he does.

 

And this doesn't add in the long-term damage done to the starters who never learn to pitch when in a spot of trouble...

[Schmoeman5]

Kepler Gallo. Kepler Gallo. Kepler has been sliding backwards since 2019. It can't be all attributed to the shift. Is he a top 10 rightfielder? NO! Even on the defense alone he might be. Gallo has always been Gallo. He'll hit 30 homers, strike out 180 times and hit .200. The Astros took Kyle Tucker and put him in rightfield and watched him improve year by year. The White Sox did the same with Vaughn. Even though Vaughn never played outfield. The Twins are not going to win with Gallo and Kepler no matter what their DRS is.  It's time for Larnach Wallner and Gordon to show or go. Buxton in CF with Taylor. Of course it all depends on health. They're all lefty bats as far as Kepler Larnach Gallo Gordon and Wallner go. So why not go with the unknown vs you know what your getting from Gallo and Kepler. Of course the stat geeks will go crazy. 100% of nothing = nothing.

[Carnegie]

Is Buxton not being used this spring or is his knee or other injuries keeping him out of spring training? Seems CF could be an issue, even with Taylor was a good pick-up.