Pivotal Year Looms Large for Rocco Baldelli

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins will have Rocco Baldelli in the dugout for his fifth season as manager on Opening Day 2023. That represents one more season than his predecessor got, and an opportunity to cement his future with the organization.

 

Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

When Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took over for Terry Ryan, the Twins ownership mandated that sitting manager Paul Molitor keep that role for one year. It was always assumed that the new front office would want to make a selection of their own, and after a short period of time, it was Rocco Baldelli who was deemed the answer.

They couldn’t have looked more right when early returns produced the Bomba Squad in 2019. The Twins won 101 games that season, hit a single-season record, 307 home runs, and appeared to be a team that could be a postseason juggernaut. Unfortunately, they were swept by the New York Yankees.

Baldelli took the club back to the postseason during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, but another sweep, this time at the hands of the Houston Astros, had Minnesota searching for answers yet again. Now with a pair of losing seasons and an overall winning percentage of just .527, it’s time for Baldelli to re-establish himself.

When in charge of the Twins, Molitor posted just a .471 winning percentage across his four seasons. The 103-loss club during 2016 was largely what did him in, and having never experienced substantial success, there was never a record that pushed his total back close to .500.

In changing out skippers, it seemed the front office wanted someone more aligned with their approach for the franchise. Using more of an analytically-driven decision-making process, finding a manager that could generate buy-in and convey principles to players on the field was a must. There was certainly a piece of that missing from Molitor, and it is something that Baldelli has been able to do seamlessly. This year, Baldelli needs to see better results follow.

What is notable, even in moving on, is how well the Twins have done communicating with the Hall of Famer. Making sure to keep the relationship solid, Molitor has spent a couple of years as a roving instructor, and this season has been seen in Fort Myers working alongside Baldelli during Spring Training action.

A year ago. the Twins dealt with an incredible amount of injury. By the end of the season, it wouldn’t have mattered much who was managing the club. Baldelli was needing to roll the dice on a far too consistent basis. The hope would be that a cleaner bill of health could be achieved this season, and if that’s the case, there is no reason why Baldelli can’t springboard it into a year of success.

Before Molitor, Tom Kelly and Ron Gardenhire represented consistency in Minnesota. Kelly parlayed a World Series victory into a long tenure, and while Gardenhire had some truly terrible teams, he won the division with enough regularity to stay relevant. Finding some level of results in between those two outcomes is probably where Baldelli finds his safest opportunity to make this marriage a long one.

I don’t think Minnesota’s front office is on the hot seat, and their manager isn’t entering the season with his chair warm either. That said, it can change quickly if another record-spending offseason doesn’t produce better results, and Baldelli making the losing stop after consecutive years would go a long way towards achieving that.

Early on it looked as though the front office couldn’t have gotten their managerial hire more right. At this point, it seems Baldelli is a perfect representation of what the organization wants to do, but he’ll need to win in Year 5 if distancing himself from Molitor’s tenure is to be achieved.

Through the exact same amount of time, with a few less games due to the pandemic, where do you find yourself on Baldelli having replaced Molitor? Did the Twins get it right?

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[ashbury]

I foresee Rocco in the Twins' front office someday, possibly even soon.  He's just too much on the same page with FalVine for them to ever cut him loose, even if the on-field performance dictates a change in personnel in the dugout, which is almost every major league manager's eventual fate.

[Parfigliano]

On paper the team looks to legit compete for the division title maybe maybe even a playoff series win.  Expectations in the front office, fanbase, and media are high on the Twins.  This will be Roccos last year if they dont meet those expectations.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

As a manager, this has got to be the most exciting time for Baldelli.  He is comfortably in his role.  The team arguably has more talent than he's ever had to work with before.  The key leaders are locked up for a few years.  Whether that translates into playoff success is a great unknown, but it has to feel good going into the year like this. 

I don't think he's remotely on the hot seat either, nor should he be, but this really could be a time to create a legacy as manager of the Twins.  Best of luck to you Rocco!

 

[wsnydes]

I don't really see him as being in any real trouble barring a complete meltdown this season without ridiculous injury numbers like they've had the last two seasons.  I think he's doing what the FO is asking him to do, so unless the FO gets let go, I don't see Rocco being in any real trouble.

[ToddlerHarmon]

As a fan, it's always hard to judge, but my eye test says that the baserunning and defense are not being executed to these players' talents, which I put down to preparation level, and see as the manager's responsibility. How much of that is minor leaguers being thrown into the fire due to injury? Hard to tell. But I suspect that too many meltdowns and gaffes in close games or against tough competition are in the offing.

By the numbers, I know that our baserunning is abysmal. Anyone got other evidence to support my grumpy bias?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

26 minutes ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

As a fan, it's always hard to judge, but my eye test says that the baserunning and defense are not being executed to these players' talents, which I put down to preparation level, and see as the manager's responsibility. How much of that is minor leaguers being thrown into the fire due to injury? Hard to tell. But I suspect that too many meltdowns and gaffes in close games or against tough competition are in the offing.

By the numbers, I know that our baserunning is abysmal. Anyone got other evidence to support my grumpy bias?

I think your observations are astute, but maybe weighed a bit too heavily against Baldelli. Keep in mind that Baldelli and his coaching staff have them to mold and sculpt for a couple seasons. Most of these players have played professionally for 4-6 years before getting to the bigs, many of them for several years in the bigs before Baldelli coaches them, and all of them for 8-10 years before becoming professionals.

it takes more than a season or two, to undo 15 years of coaching.

also, the FO has acquired a crap-ton of lumbering three-true-outcomes hitters. You can’t make Willie-Mays-Hayes out of Trevor Larnach. They apparently have identified the gap and are addressing it, but again, it’ll take more than an off-season to make that transition 

[Wizard11]

For Baldelli it has to be a bit concerning that his projected 1st, 2nd, and 3rd base starting infielders as well as the CF have yet to play their positions in a game.  With injuries to Gordon, Larnach, Alcala, and any others it is a bit ominous for a manager who needs his team to perform over .500.  Cue Jaws music…. 

[mikelink45]

I was not happy with Molitor being replaced, but it is not Baldelli's fault.  

I am not happy with his by the book approach, but it reflects the FO and all the coaches that have been brought in so I am not sure what I should be using to judge him.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, Wizard11 said:

For Baldelli it has to be a bit concerning that his projected 1st, 2nd, and 3rd base starting infielders as well as the CF have yet to play their positions in a game.  With injuries to Gordon, Larnach, Alcala, and any others it is a bit ominous for a manager who needs his team to perform over .500.  Cue Jaws music…. 

Byron Buxton, Alex Kirilloff, Jose Miranda and Jorge Polanco have never played their positions before?

I think a little more research might help assuage your fear.

[DocBauer]

First of all, I have a hard time dismissing 2 division wins and playoff appearances in 4 years and a winning % of .527. Baseball ebbs and flows. 2021 was NOT what anyone expected. Nor was 2010 when the Twins seemed primed and had a then record payroll. 2022 turned out to be a reboot of the TV series MASH when all was said and done. But before that happened, how many weeks and months were the Twins in 1st place?

Look, I haven't always agreed with some lineups Baldelli has thrown out, even with the team in good health. I haven't always liked every SP or BP move he's made either. And I DO BELIEVE it's on him, and his coaching staff, to make his players better and smarter in simple things like base running and throwing to the right base. SOME of that, more so in 2022, was the result of playing a AAAA roster or worse. But some happened before that. 

Thankfully, the FO AND Baldelli have recognized the ball has changed, the game is changing, and they are re-shaping their approach. Even in milb and the draft, you are seeing changes in approach. And BTW, that's part of the reason Molitor has been brought in. He and Baldelli have tremendous respect for one another, despite any potential awkwardness that might have happened. If you watched as many games as I did last year, you would have seen Rocco trusting his SP to go a little longer. You would have seen a few more bunts and hit and run scenarios. I'm sorry, I know he plays percentages and embraces analytics, but when your team doesn't hit, and your rotation is limited, and you are at the top of the league in injury lost days and WAR lost days, what are you to do?

I don't absolve the FO for moves made, or not made, that assisted in 2 poor seasons. I can grant at least a partial Mullligan for 2020 and milb injuries throwing a HUGE monkey wrench in to their PLAN. But they are learning and changing, hence the number of very smart moves they've made to make this team the deepest and best they can entering 2023. As the FO goes, so goes the manager. 

Rocco is/was a BALLPLAYER. To think he doesn't understand the game is a huge mistake based on a pair of poor seasons. But again, how many weeks and months were the Twins in 1st place in 2022 before the roof caved in?

I think this roster, right now, is just about exactly where the FO and Rocco want it. SIX quality ML SP who are, arguably, all #2-3 arms. And a potentially very good pen, though there are a pair of spots to work out. And there appears to be options for both. The defense looks, potentially, improved.

There ARE lineup/production questions. Whether ready from DAY ONE, or a month in to the season, can Larnach and AK finally be healthy and ready to fulfill their promise? If so, even if Gallo reverts back to his "TEXAS" normal...or not...the lineup is in great shape now and going forward. A healthy Polanco makes a HUGE difference in the lineup. Catching and infield and OF depth is better. Talented young prospects are on the rise and will make their presence known in 2023.

The absence of the likes of Shoemaker, Happ, Bundy and Archer, and the talent of the rotation right now almost immediately screams more than an average of 5 IP per start. Even with a couple remaining questions about the pens last few spots still says this is, potentially, the best opening day pen we've had in years. Just a little bit of good luck, long overdue, says that either or both AK and Larnach are going to finally be ready to establish themselves. Same little bit of luck says Lewis, Lee, and Julien aren't going to "spike themselves" and be part of the team sooner than later.

Rocco and the Twins of 2023, I believe, will run a bit more. I think they will just run the bases better and be more aggressive. There's some speed on this team, and more coming. And there's still power, and projected power. 

I don't like everything Rocco has done. There's only a handful of managers I believe make a huge difference. Baldelli also has a few great leaders on his team with Gray, Buxton, and Correa. Players like playing for him. I believe the team is just about right for him wanting to manage the way he wants to. Of course, good players and depth make that a lot easier. For any manager. But isn't that the whole point? Being a "manager". Even when you have talent, it's about utilizing what you have.

I don't think Rocco is on a hot seat any more than the FO. I think this is the best overall job the FO has done, with few quibbles. A little luck of health, FINALLY, combined with depth and some VERY good young talent ready to perform, I think the Twins might  be primed to make some noise. It's up to Rocco and his staff to make the most of it.

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Byron Buxton, Alex Kirilloff, Jose Miranda and Jorge Polanco have never played their positions before?

I think a little more research might help assuage your fear.

I haven’t seen all the box scores, but I’m wondering if Wizard meant they haven’t played their positions yet this spring. Do you know if that’s the case?
 

If so, that does create a bit of unsettledness. It’s early, but still less than four weeks to Opening Day. 

[Fat Calvin]

I think both Falvey and Rocco are in over their heads--especially Rocco.  IMHO, he's not a leader.  There's no inspiration, no grit,  I'd love to see an old school guy like Francona at the helm. 

 

[tony&rodney]

Through the exact same amount of time, with a few less games due to the pandemic, where do you find yourself on Baldelli having replaced Molitor? Did the Twins get it right?

When the Pohlads hired Falvey it was already determined that a new manager would replace Molitor after one season. Baldelli was then the choice and he has done fine and followed the ideals of Falvey. Molitor has continued on as an advisor to the Pohlads for the Twins and even increased his time working with the minor leagues in the past few years. I'm not sure there is another person in baseball who understands and knows the game of baseball as well as Paul Molitor. The Twins are lucky to have him and Paul keeps active in the game while still being able to live a normal life as opposed to the grinding schedule of MLB, which Molitor is all too familiar with from his many years in the game.

I wouldn't say it is a matter of getting it right with Baldelli because the idea was for Falvey to have his man in the dugout. Thus we can expect to see Baldelli there for a few years unless there is some unusual unexpected conflict that arises between dugout and front office, or a major breakdown occurs where the Pohlads decide to clean house across the board. I don't see that as a likely occurrence given the Pohlad business models.  

[Doctor Gast]

14 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I was not happy with Molitor being replaced, but it is not Baldelli's fault.  

I am not happy with his by the book approach, but it reflects the FO and all the coaches that have been brought in so I am not sure what I should be using to judge him.

I have to give Baldelli credit for bringing Molitor in to help out with base running techniques, hopefully they'll take advantage of it. My preference is to have a bench coach as the analytical one to help support the manager with info to make decisions. What I have against both Molitor & Baldelli is that they over rely on short relief which causes the BP to blow up. I contribute that for those long years of not winning a post season game. Because the rotation & BP are shot when that time comes around. I really like our chances of winning a post season game because of the depth of the rotation & BP especially if they follow thru this time with long relief.

[Otaknam]

I am optimistic because of the upgrade in starting pitching. No dumpster diving for retreads like Archer and Bundy this year, with solid starters 1-5 and some promising rookies and second year guys to fill in when needed. If Mahle and Lopez are very good they have a chance to make a playoff run, even without a shutdown starter. 
 

As for the FO and Rocco, their dogmatic adherence to analytics for starting pitching is an aggravation, especially with the leaky bullpen last year. Hopefully Baldelli unleashes his inner Rocco and uses his intuition and actual managing skills upon occasion and shows confidence in his starters to pitch into the late innings. Because right now that’s almost a felony to do that on this team. Solid starters want to win and pitch complete games, because that’s the competitor in them and where the money is at.

[Jeff K]

31 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

I am optimistic because of the upgrade in starting pitching. No dumpster diving for retreads like Archer and Bundy this year, with solid starters 1-5 and some promising rookies and second year guys to fill in when needed. If Mahle and Lopez are very good they have a chance to make a playoff run, even without a shutdown starter. 
 

As for the FO and Rocco, their dogmatic adherence to analytics for starting pitching is an aggravation, especially with the leaky bullpen last year. Hopefully Baldelli unleashes his inner Rocco and uses his intuition and actual managing skills upon occasion and shows confidence in his starters to pitch into the late innings. Because right now that’s almost a felony to do that on this team. Solid starters want to win and pitch complete games, because that’s the competitor in them and where the money is at.

I don't need to write out my comments as you nailed what I'm thinking around the starting pitching.  Our relief pitching so was unreliable last year and Baldelli put even more pressure on them by pulling starters before their 3rd time around the lineup.  Sometimes, the heart has to be heard above the brain.  You need a mix of the two.

[CRF]

I'm not a Rocco guy at all, but I don't think there's any way that this FO puts the bag on him. He's exactly what they want. Would I like more of an old school kind of manager, who can use analytics as well as his "gut", and can make adjustments on the fly? You bet I would, but I don't see it happening. That's not the way things are going all across baseball. I'd kill to get someone like Francona as our manager. 

[Whitey333]

I'm not a Rocco fan but would love to become one.  I'd like to see if he can really manage a team instead of spreadsheets managing it for him.  Just like it would be fun to see if Buxton can play a full season and produce results.  The past couple of years have been bad due largely to underperforming players and injuries.  But the Twins play boring, uninspiring and undisciplined baseball.  Even before last year's September collapse and teaming first place they weren't that good.  Way too many physical and especially mental errors.  I expect improvement from Rocco as well.  Just win baby.

[D.C Twins]

He'll be gone from the dugout by the end of the season and into a 'front office consultant role' which will fit him perfectly. 

I get the feeling that he is a big but methodical thinker, but not so great with fluid, agile, short fuse decision making that is required for a great manager. 

No offence to Rocco, he's just in the wrong place to maximize his talents 

[Ricky Vaughn]

At least publicly Rocco and the front office are on the same page as to how things should be done. The front office also seems to be convinced of their genius intellects. If they fired him they would need to admit they made a mistake, I don't see that happening short of a clubhouse rebellion.  

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Rocco is safe as he is managing exactly how the FO wants him to by using analytics.  Did they get it right?  If you asked Falvey or Levine I would guess they would say yes.

I like Rocco but do wish he could stray to gut decisions once in awhile, but not sure he is allowed to.

If the Twins have a terrible year, and if the FO decides to let Rocco go, I think that they will just bring in another analytics-by-the-book guy who would manage similarly.

[davidborton]

21 hours ago, Wizard11 said:

For Baldelli it has to be a bit concerning that his projected 1st, 2nd, and 3rd base starting infielders as well as the CF have yet to play their positions in a game ...

In following the box scores, Twins seem to be playing a disproportionate amount of rooks (compared to other years of ST) in my experience.

I wonder if the new head trainer has some doing in that. Are the core starters doing more individual physical conditioning/training off field which we don't see in an effort to build stamina/avoid injuries for the regular season?

Hard to know.

[Wizard11]

20 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Byron Buxton, Alex Kirilloff, Jose Miranda and Jorge Polanco have never played their positions before?

I think a little more research might help assuage your fear.

Richie, I re-read my post and I realize I left out the rather important caveat that they have not played their positions so far this spring.  No doubt your research will uncover that to be accurate

[Richie the Rally Goat]

17 minutes ago, Wizard11 said:

Richie, I re-read my post and I realize I left out the rather important caveat that they have not played their positions so far this spring.  No doubt your research will uncover that to be accurate

Indeed, injury bug has already set in. Hopefully just getting that out of the way

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Indeed, injury bug has already set in. Hopefully just getting that out of the way

Yes, that is exactly how injuries on a roster work.

[silverslugger]

2019 and the Bomba happened and I was a happy camper.  Then came the post-season and some real oofdah moments from the team's manager.  2020 happened and covid happened and 60 games happened.  Then came the post-season and some real oofdah moments form the team's manager.  Then 2021 and 2022 happened and there was no playoffs and a ton of injuries and bad baseball.  

Let's just say I'm no Rocco fan, but I'm smart enough to know I'm probably stuck with him.  I hope he can change his stripes.  I sure feel there are some managers in baseball that manage circles around him, including one in the American League.  Fortunately, another Central team chose to go with a living relic the past few years which doom them.

'nuff said.

 

[beckmt]

Not a Rocco fan,  My feeling this is playoffs or bust.  That means make it or let Rocco walk.  FO has worked hard to make this a winning team.  You have to produce one.  Other posters have talked about the lack of fundamentals,  that is an issue, also what are they doing to stop KC and Cleveland from running all over us.  These questions need to be answered or we need a new head man.