Are You Ready for Emilio Pagan to Work?

[Ted Schwerzler]

Last season, there was no more polarizing figure in the Minnesota Twins bullpen than that of Emilio Pagan. The reliever was initially brought in as the expected closer, and the only thing he did was slam the door on postseason opportunity. What if it goes better in 2023?

 

Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Rocco Baldelli was handed a new closer just before Opening Day last season. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took advantage of circumstance to acquire a controllable starting pitching in Chris Paddack. They flipped veteran closer Taylor Rogers as he was coming off of injury and headed to free agency, while also grabbing Emilio Pagan in the process. That’s where the good news ended.

Pagan made his Minnesota debut during Game 3 of the opening series against the Seattle Mariners. That was little more than a mop-up appearance as the Twins trailed 10-4. A couple of days later, he came on against the Los Angeles Dodgers in a 1-1 game. After getting through the 7th inning, he walked Mookie Betts to lead off the 8th and was later charged with his first loss. Although the unraveling was on Caleb Thielbar, it was foreshadowing for what would come next.

After recording two saves, Pagan blew his first of the season against the Detroit Tigers on April 26. He went almost a month before blowing his second on May 25 against that same Tigers club. That’s where things went bad. Pagan posted nearly a 12.00 ERA during the month of June, and his 5.79 ERA from July 6 through August 21 wasn’t remarkably better. With plenty of games coming against Cleveland, Pagan sank Minnesota’s hopes of staying in front of the Guardians in the standings.

So why would we expect anything different? Well, clearly the Twins expect something different. It would have been odd for the club to sit by and watch Pagan blow up on a nightly basis only to cut him loose during the offseason. His price tag through arbitration was by no means exorbitant, and it has always been argued that his stuff was well above average. Trying to find a way where tweaks this offseason could help was a must, and that’s where the club appears to have gone.

It’s also not as though Pagan didn’t figure things out down the stretch. Over his final 13 games, a sample of 16 2/3 innings, he posted a 2.16 ERA and 2.99 FIP. His 21 strikeouts were well more than one per nine, although the eight walks in that span still do leave something to be desired.

Leading up to his closing stretch, Pagan was throwing a four-seam fastball just under 50% of the time while using his slider roughly 25% of the time. The rest of the repertoire came in the form of a sinker. He was generating a 35% chase rate and strong 14% whiff rate, but also giving up contact 73% of the time.

When things turned for Pagan, Minnesota got him to up the fastball usage to nearly 60% while substantially cutting down both the sinker and slider usage in favor of a curveball. It resulted in decreased contact, higher chase percentages, and roughly even whiff rates. The addition of a new pitch is something that the Twins organization had been looking to impart for months, but needed buy-in from a pitcher that had no real rapport with the team outside of the regular season.

It’s in that where we can find some solace. Getting buy-in to tweak a player’s arsenal is something that happens through trust. Pagan hasn’t been good since his breakout season with the Tampa Bay Rays, but he has always had the inputs that suggest results should follow. Looking to unlock that is where Minnesota wants to be, and an offseason program in conjunction with Twins staff could help them both to get there.

There is little reason the Twins should enter the season with Pagan in high leverage. Both Jhoan Duran and Jorge Lopez can handle those innings alongside of Griffin Jax. Pagan can insert himself back into the discussion however, and that’s something he’ll need to earn a right to do. On the flip side, his leash should be short and there is nothing about a $3.5 million salary that will keep Minnesota from avoiding the same fate from a year ago.

I’m not sure if Pagan has truly found it or not, but being prepared to see if he has is something I don’t think Minnesota fans were ready for when the offseason ended.

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[CRF]

Yup...at one of the local fast food places. 

[cHawk]

Hell no.

[Ricky Vaughn]

I think the problem is between his ears, not his pitch selection. He did well at the end of last year pitching in low pressure situations. lets see what he does with the game on the line. Wait, forget that just keep using him in mop up situations.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

LOL... The life of a reliever.

While I am not a huge fan of Pagan, he has shown in the past that he can be successful.  The Twins do not need him to be Duran this year, the BP is deeper.

High ceiling, low floor, reasonable contract, good stuff.  I have no problem putting him in low leverage situations until he proves he has figured it out.  It not, let him go.

All signs point to him being worth a flier.  Low leverage MR should not be a major point of contention at the moment.

[Nine of twelve]

As is the case with every player in the organization, I hope he exceeds expectations. But his leash had better be fairly short.

[Nashvilletwin]

We shall see about our bullpen - there are plenty of questions and not just about Pagan:

Is Lopez really going to be a reliable high leverage option (personally, I think this is the biggest risk - not Pagan)?

When and will Alcala reach dependability?

Was poor Jax just overused, or was his later in the season decline a harbinger that the league was figuring him out?

Thielbar is a solid lefty, but is another year older an issue?

Will Moran continue his solid trajectory as a reliable, improving 25 year old option?

Can Megill improve upon his 2022 campaign?

Our bullpen looks as solid as any in recent years. No doubt. But bullpens can be fleeting, fickle things and this year it won’t just be Pagan’s performance that will make or break the bullpen’s season. In fact, a rebound from Pagan could be huge if some of the questions above don’t to turn out to be favourably answered.

 

[dxpavelka]

58 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

We shall see about our bullpen - there are plenty of questions and not just about Pagan:

Is Lopez really going to be a reliable high leverage option (personally, I think this is the biggest risk - not Pagan)?

When and will Alcala reach dependability?

Was poor Jax just overused, or was his later in the season decline a harbinger that the league was figuring him out?

Thielbar is a solid lefty, but is another year older an issue?

Will Moran continue his solid trajectory as a reliable, improving 25 year old option?

Can Megill improve upon his 2022 campaign?

Our bullpen looks as solid as any in recent years. No doubt. But bullpens can be fleeting, fickle things and this year it won’t just be Pagan’s performance that will make or break the bullpen’s season. In fact, a rebound from Pagan could be huge if some of the questions above don to turn out to be favourably answered.

 

 

 

WHAT?!!  A player under performing expectations one year and then exceeding them the next??  PREPOSTEROUS!!!

[2wins87]

I'll be open minded that he can be better this year, but my main issue is that he looked like a low leverage arm when they acquired him, but they seemed to believe that they got a high leverage arm. And it didn't take too long before he was pitching like a low leverage arm in some of the highest leverage situations.

I am hoping for the best, but I'm also hoping that the FO and coaching staff have reset their expectations. For me, he'll have to really be lights out before I want to see him in even moderately high leverage, but the FO seems to have way more faith in him than I do.

[Doctor Gast]

IMO this trade was bad from the start. SD didn't know how to pitch Rogers. Even though he pitched great in the beginning, SD mismanagement eventually caught up to Rogers. Everybody knew that Paddack's arm was ready to fall off & Pagan couldn't close.

[dberthia]

The only thing he should "find" is the door. It baffles me why this club keeps giving proven losers 3rd and 4th chances.

[jorgenswest]

If anything he outperformed expectations. It was his best ERA, FIP and xFIP since 2019.

I strongly disagree that the problem is between his ears. He seems to work hard and learn. He is constantly trying to find a new pitch or refine a pitch.

He has trouble with command. That is a talent. He either misses the plate or hits the heart of the plate. There are too many walks and too much hard contact. He also shows the ability to miss bats when he happens to hit his spots. My guess is he probably won’t improve in that skill enough. Even then there is the possibility he has a 90% or better LOB rate and the numbers look good.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

I think the problem is between his ears, not his pitch selection. He did well at the end of last year pitching in low pressure situations. lets see what he does with the game on the line. Wait, forget that just keep using him in mop up situations.

Exactly…….IMO, both he & López need to be working with a sports psychologist & whoever cured the Lion in the Wizard of Oz!

They fold up and just throw straight fastballs down the middle way too often under pressure. BOTH have STUFF to be really good relievers but the intestinal fortitude doesn’t seem to be there.

Physically, maybe it’s they don’t have enough command in the zone? Can’t just pay them & live with that!

 

[D.C Twins]

 "his leash should be short and there is nothing about a $3.5 million salary that will keep Minnesota from avoiding the same fate from a year ago."

But will it be?  This is the key.

Nick Nelson's nice article convinced me that he was worth a 3.5 million flier (kudos to Nick, because convincing me was not easy). 

But the problem is that the Twins have not demonstrated the ability to cut relief pitchers loose at the appropriate time in the past seasons when things were not working. 

 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

We shall see about our bullpen - there are plenty of questions and not just about Pagan:

Is Lopez really going to be a reliable high leverage option (personally, I think this is the biggest risk - not Pagan)?

When and will Alcala reach dependability?

Was poor Jax just overused, or was his later in the season decline a harbinger that the league was figuring him out?

Thielbar is a solid lefty, but is another year older an issue?

Will Moran continue his solid trajectory as a reliable, improving 25 year old option?

Can Megill improve upon his 2022 campaign?

Our bullpen looks as solid as any in recent years. No doubt. But bullpens can be fleeting, fickle things and this year it won’t just be Pagan’s performance that will make or break the bullpen’s season. In fact, a rebound from Pagan could be huge if some of the questions above don to turn out to be favourably answered.

 

You just described 90% of the bullpens in baseball.  I could take out Twins pitchers and insert other teams pitchers into just about every statement.

100% agree with every word in your last paragraph.  On paper, the BP looks pretty solid, but we have to play the games.  Let the volatility commence 

[specialiststeve]

My hope is that he pitches well in spring training and somebody wants him and we move him for something with any kind of value. We all... knowing it or not will start turning off the TV or Radio when he comes in as can't take the implosion that is on its way!!

[mikelink45]

To answer the  basic question - NO.  But I have no choice.  After watching Columbe, Dyson, and other veterans turn things around here why wouldn't I think Pagan can.  If my radio happens to turn off when he comes in I will have to seek technical help to get it to come back on.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

If we hadn't suffered through June, July, and August last year watching him implode, we would likely be pleased that they had "taken a flyer" on this Pagan fellow, who has had some success in the past and seems to have good stuff with a little turnaround at the end of the sason.  This sort of stuff happens all the time to the Twins and other teams with relief pitchers.  I say give him another shot, but this time let him build up his value from the bottom of the pecking order so he can gain some confidence and hopefully work his way into being a high leverage guy by the end of the season.  If that happens, we'll all be here talking about how smart is was to hang onto him.

[Nashvilletwin]

54 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

You just described 90% of the bullpens in baseball.  I could take out Twins pitchers and insert other teams pitchers into just about every statement.

100% agree with every word in your last paragraph.  On paper, the BP looks pretty solid, but we have to play the games.  Let the volatility commence 

100% correct. You really just never know with bullpens over the course of a season. 

[LeatherAntenna]

Let me see if I understand this.  He will work in low leverage situations until you trust him in high leverage situations.  Then you put him in high leverage situations and he blows them.  Put him in high right away.  Why not find that out he will melt down early in the season when games and the standings are a little less important?

[2wins87]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Exactly…….IMO, both he & López need to be working with a sports psychologist & whoever cured the Lion in the Wizard of Oz!

They fold up and just throw straight fastballs down the middle way too often under pressure. BOTH have STUFF to be really good relievers but the intestinal fortitude doesn’t seem to be there.

Physically, maybe it’s they don’t have enough command in the zone? Can’t just pay them & live with that!

 

So normally I'd argue that "clutch" performance, or lack thereof, is mostly just random luck, and I still think it is in most situations.

In Pagan's case, I do think there is something there.  He's been way worse in high leverage situations.  For his career he has a .847 OPS against in high leverage situations, vs about .660 in low and medium leverage.  It's been a consistent story every year of his career too, even his best years.

Last year it seemed like he would nibble and nibble and nibble in high leverage, fall behind in the count, and then invariably he had to throw a strike and he'd cough up the big hit on a pitch down the middle.  So yeah, it seems like he needs to learn to attack and pitch more like he does in low leverage.  Maybe a sports psychologist would help, but honestly he should probably just be a middle reliever at most.

 

Not sure about Lopez, still too early to say that it wasn't just random luck.  I do think some people are fooling themselves that there wasn't a significant amount of luck in his first half with Baltimore.  I think he did make adjustments becoming a reliever, but I think it's kind of unlikely that he actually became one of the best relievers in the game when you consider his full track record in the majors.  I think he should be a good reliever, like Jax maybe, but we probably shouldn't expect too much.

[se7799]

3 hours ago, dberthia said:

The only thing he should "find" is the door. It baffles me why this club keeps giving proven losers 3rd and 4th chances.

That's a pretty extreme take.  Relax

[dberthia]

12 minutes ago, se7799 said:

That's a pretty extreme take.  Relax

Thanks for the advice, but I'm good (and very relaxed to be honest).

[se7799]

Just now, dberthia said:

Thanks for the advice, but I'm good (and very relaxed to be honest).

Very good.  Thankyou.

[rwilfong86]

If Pagan gets shelled in spring training, DFA.

[rwilfong86]

5 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

We shall see about our bullpen - there are plenty of questions and not just about Pagan:

Is Lopez really going to be a reliable high leverage option (personally, I think this is the biggest risk - not Pagan)?

When and will Alcala reach dependability?

Was poor Jax just overused, or was his later in the season decline a harbinger that the league was figuring him out?

Thielbar is a solid lefty, but is another year older an issue?

Will Moran continue his solid trajectory as a reliable, improving 25 year old option?

Can Megill improve upon his 2022 campaign?

Our bullpen looks as solid as any in recent years. No doubt. But bullpens can be fleeting, fickle things and this year it won’t just be Pagan’s performance that will make or break the bullpen’s season. In fact, a rebound from Pagan could be huge if some of the questions above don to turn out to be favourably answered.

 

Lopez has good stuff, I think he has a bounce back as a set up man and does well. People have to understand Lopez had some challenges with his personal situation that probably caused many of his struggles last season after the trade. Having an offseason with the team and building chemistry with the other Puerto Rican players will boost his confidence and I think we will see a bounce back season from him.

[old nurse]

A reliever that lost far more games for his teams last year than Pagan was Trevor Rogers. Sad, but true.

 

I find it interesting that it seems like Pagan gets for the season gone awry. Jax was near the same level of blown saves and loses

Season went downhill when Archer and Buddy were no longer effective.  It was unfortunate tWinder went down in July and Ober in June. 

[mnfireman]

17 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

Not sure about Lopez, still too early to say that it wasn't just random luck.  I do think some people are fooling themselves that there wasn't a significant amount of luck in his first half with Baltimore.  I think he did make adjustments becoming a reliever, but I think it's kind of unlikely that he actually became one of the best relievers in the game when you consider his full track record in the majors.  I think he should be a good reliever, like Jax maybe, but we probably shouldn't expect too much.

Well there are Joe Nathan, LaTroy Hawkins, Rick Aguilera, Glen Perkins, Liam Hendriks, and Eddie Guardado as just a few Twins who failed as starters and became good relievers for many seasons.

If Lopez's personal issues have been resolved and he can concentrate on baseball, I foresee good things from him this year and next.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

A reliever that lost far more games for his teams last year than Pagan was Trevor Rogers. Sad, but true.

 

I find it interesting that it seems like Pagan gets for the season gone awry. Jax was near the same level of blown saves and loses

Season went downhill when Archer and Buddy were no longer effective.  It was unfortunate tWinder went down in July and Ober in June. 

Trevor Rogers is a starter in Miami. Did you mean Taylor Rogers?

[adorduan]

9 hours ago, dberthia said:

The only thing he should "find" is the door. It baffles me why this club keeps giving proven losers 3rd and 4th chances.

because analytics says he has a great spin rate, yada yada yada....