Baseball’s Best Outfield Is In Minnesota

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins outfielders coined a phrase “Nothing Falls but Raindrops” a few seasons ago, and while it was fitting, none of them knew what was coming. This collection could be the best in the sport, and it may not even be close.

 

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Yes, gone is Eddie Rosario, and maybe Max Kepler will be jettisoned at some point as well. What stands as truth either way, however, is that Rocco Baldelli should lay claim to having baseball’s best outfield.

As always, Byron Buxton needs to stay healthy. That has been the case forever and will continue to be as much. His 92 games last season was the most he has played since 2017, and that was the last time he won a Gold Glove. We aren’t just hoping for a guy to contribute in the field anymore either, as when Buxton is out there, he’s among the best in the game. Now having developed into a Mike Trout or Aaron Judge type on a per-game basis, Buxton represents the gold standard in centerfield.

When the Twins brought in Joey Gallo, it immediately made more sense for them to move Kepler. With Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach vying for time on the corners, and all being left handed, the glut had to be reduced somehow. Still, Kepler being parted out for nothing makes little sense. Although the offensive profile is nowhere near that of Buxton’s he contributes to a very similar level on defense. Rating highly by both defensive runs saved and outs above average, Kepler is among the premier players in right field.

Gallo is traditionally seen as the slugging bat that is home run or bust. That simplifies his game far more than should be warranted. He is also a strong on-base contributor, and among the best outfielders in the game by his own right. Able to play any of the three spots on the grass, Gallo is quicker than you’d expect given his size, and the arm strength is notable as well. He has two Gold Glove awards to his credit, and neither are simply a byproduct of what he did on offense.

Behind the starters is where Minnesota has also made massive strides. Rather than needing to play Jake Cave, or ask Tim Beckham to learn a new position, Michael A. Taylor represents the next man up. His bat has never been anything to write home about, but he represents a Gold Glove caliber centerfield talent, and could start on nearly any other team in baseball. With a desire to keep Buxton off his feet on occasion, filling in with that level of defensive talent is beyond impressive.

From there the Twins could turn to either Nick Gordon, who filled in admirably last year, or Gilberto Celestino. Gordon showed a consistent level of development as he worked to acclimate himself in centerfield. His arm strength has been a question at shortstop, but his speed and closing ability played well in the outfield. Now more of a utility talent, being capable on the grass gives him plenty of opportunity. Celestino has always looked the part of a strong defender, and the growth he showed during year two in the big leagues was substantial. There is probably more to unlock with him, and Minnesota should continue to find ways to do so.

At the end of the day there won’t be a surefire way to replace the production lost by either Buxton or Gallo if either miss time. Dealing Kepler could hurt should Minnesota need to replace injured bodies. When Spring Training commences though, it’s hard to think of another roster in baseball that can lay claim to the same level of defensive talent.

One would hope that Royce Lewis can return this summer and play on the dirt. He found his way to the outfield last year with guys missing time and the roster needing help. The latter part should no longer be an issue, and with Target Field having an expansive amount of space to cover, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have given their pitchers the best players to do it.

A season ago Minnesota was a top five unit in the outfield defensively. For 2023, the focus should be 1st or bust.

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[Minny505]

It seems a forgone conclusion around here that Taylor will play CF against LHP while Buxton does the DH thing.

But I wonder if there are any discussions within Twins management to have Buxton play RF against LHP, which would be a huge upgrade over Kepler, and allow another right-handed bat to take over DH.

Corner OF is much less stress on the body as most plays are (statistically speaking) either towering fly balls that are relatively easy to get under or line drives and grounders that just need to be thrown back in. 

I doubt we see it, but it would probably be a middle ground of optimizing both Buxton's health and team performance.

[D.C Twins]

whoa! You are getting out over your skiis.

If Buxton was healthy and playing CF for 140-150 games maybe, but that is not going to happen,

So, a good outfield...yes, but the best?! I'll call that a mild delusion of grandeur.  

[dberthia]

I'll have what Ted's having!

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I have been saying this is the best defensive OF in baseball the moment they signed Gallo.  With Kepler and Taylor, no team is even remotely close.

Offensively there is some "prove it" with Kepler and Gallo.  If those two can revert back to previous form, along with a healthy Buxton, the argument for best OF in baseball has some legs.

[rv78]

99 defensive runs saved in 2020 for Taylor, Gallo and Buck. Too bad we aren't playing the 2020 season in 2023. I think it is obvious the Twins went ALL IN on defense for 2023 ignoring offense and improving the bullpen. IMO I think that will come back to bite them. Good Luck.

[CGRABAU]

Package a trade for the Cardinals Tyler O’Neil….fits a lot of needs. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, CGRABAU said:

Package a trade for the Cardinals Tyler O’Neil….fits a lot of needs. 

Welcome to Twins Daily!

[Trov]

7 minutes ago, rv78 said:

99 defensive runs saved in 2020 for Taylor, Gallo and Buck. Too bad we aren't playing the 2020 season in 2023. 

It is that many runs saved since 2020 season, so it covers, 2020, 2021, and 2022.  The fact that Buck played only half those games over that time shows how great he is on defense, if he can only stay on the field. 

[weitz41]

I just hope the offensive side is middle of the pack or better. Then I'd say they're the best outfield in the bigs 

[Trov]

I would say we can have the best defensive outfield, but that is only based on all three playing the OF.  Based on lack of offense, Taylor is not likely to play every day, but more spell Buck or be late inning replacement.  Gallo may not get as much time in the OF as we want, if we need him to fill in 1B.  Overall, we should hopefully, (fingers crossed) have at least 2 top defenders in OF every day, if not 3. 

[Nashvilletwin]

Best defensive outfield in baseball (that actually may be true even if any three of Buxton, Taylor, Gallo and Kepler are on the field).

Worst hitting outfield in baseball (that actually may also be true  if BB is playing (depending on which BB streak we are riding), but it’s certainly true if Gallo, Kepler and Taylor are on the field).

Enjoy that combo while we can, because next year (and maybe sooner), all three of Gallo, Kepler and Taylor are likely gone.

[Eris]

I am a little bit puzzled by the large differences in DRS vs statcast metrics. 
in the catch probability leaderboard 

Buxton has 84% catch probability and 8 outs above average.   And 66% of 4 star opportunities v
 

Kepler:  69% and 11 OAA, 62% of 4 star opportunities 

Gallo is 58% and -3 OAA. 22% of 4 star opportunities  

Obviously one main difference is the OAA and catch probability doesn’t take into consideration arm strength and accuracy, whereas DRS does. 

[Muppet]

With an outfield this solid, they'll only lose every game 1-2 instead of 1-3. 

Please bring in someone who can hit. 

[chpettit19]

34 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Best defensive outfield in baseball (that actually may be true even if any three of Buxton, Taylor, Gallo and Kepler are on the field).

Worst hitting outfield in baseball (that actually may also be true  if BB is playing (depending on which BB streak we are riding), but it’s certainly true if Gallo, Kepler and Taylor are on the field).

Enjoy that combo while we can, because next year (and maybe sooner), all three of Gallo, Kepler and Taylor are likely gone.

I agree there's some real questions on the offensive floor of this outfield, but I think you're selling other teams short on just how bad their OFs are. The Twins played all of September with a bunch of guys who had no business being on a major league field manning the OF grass in Minneapolis. Played most of the season without Kirilloff or Larnach. And still ended with the 16th best wRC+ amongst major league OFs in 2022. Offensive fWAR for the group was -3.6, which I don't think surprises anyone. But that was 19th in baseball. Miami had -41.2 fWAR and Colorado was at -41.4 to bring up the rear. Oakland also brutally bad. Texas, Cinci, Detroit, KC, Bos, Pit, and the White Sox all were worse than the Twins who had Tim freaking Beckham and Billy Hamilton forced into their OF lineup along with world beaters Mark Contreras, Jake Cave, and Kyle Garlick. 

Their OF offense has the chance of being very bad next year (if injuries are bad and bounce backs don't happen), but nowhere near the worst in baseball. Their defense was good enough to carry that brutal group to 13th best in fWAR for OF groups in baseball last year. If the defense gets up to 7+ fWAR this year like Arizona's was last year it'd make them a top 5 overall unit easy. Seems pretty plausible to me.

[Beast]

I’ve never understood the take that acquiring Gallo unequivocally means they need to move Kepler.  And the reason for that is Trevor Larnach, et all.

It made more sense when we still had Arraez on the roster.  We don’t anymore.

Trevor Larnach hasn’t done a whole to show he should be handed the keys to anything.  His numbers stink.

Gallo has positional flexibility.  He can play all 3 OF spots and first base.  The team has shown they like to rest guys and move them around.  There’s also a DH slot to fill.

There is a ridiculous track record of injuries on this club.  The guy currently assumed to be slotted in at 1B might never hit worth a squat in his career because of chronic wrist issue.  And, frankly, his overall numbers stink. 

They would get nothing in return for Kepler that exceeds his value to the team.  They would essentially be giving him away to make room for Gordon and Larnach.

The value of Kepler has gotten fairly underrated.  It’s almost turned into hyperbole this off-season. He’s been between a 2-4 WAR player every year of his career.

Gordon has a full seasons worth of plate appearances (over 600).  He’s got exactly a 0.0% WPA, a 101 OPS+, a .711 OPS, 1.7 WAR and a negative overall dWAR.  And people look at him like a prospect - he’s 2 years younger than Kepler at 27.

Trevor Larnach has just under a full season with a -2.5 WPA, a 94 OPS+, a .687 OPS, a 1.9 WAR and a 0.7 dWAR.  He’s 26.

These aren’t young guys.  They’re already exiting their physical prime.

Maybe Kepler won’t be any better that.  Who knows.  But right now, even with is anemic offense, his OF defense makes him a more valuable player than both of these guys.  He also has a longer track record of OPSing higher than both of these guys.  He makes 6 million dollars - that’s peanuts.  For context, Michael Taylor makes $4.5 to be a backup.

I just don’t see the benefit out running Kepler out of town for a poor return right now.  It just feels like a bad move.

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I agree there's some real questions on the offensive floor of this outfield, but I think you're selling other teams short on just how bad their OFs are. The Twins played all of September with a bunch of guys who had no business being on a major league field manning the OF grass in Minneapolis. Played most of the season without Kirilloff or Larnach. And still ended with the 16th best wRC+ amongst major league OFs in 2022. Offensive fWAR for the group was -3.6, which I don't think surprises anyone. But that was 19th in baseball. Miami had -41.2 fWAR and Colorado was at -41.4 to bring up the rear. Oakland also brutally bad. Texas, Cinci, Detroit, KC, Bos, Pit, and the White Sox all were worse than the Twins who had Tim freaking Beckham and Billy Hamilton forced into their OF lineup along with world beaters Mark Contreras, Jake Cave, and Kyle Garlick. 

Their OF offense has the chance of being very bad next year (if injuries are bad and bounce backs don't happen), but nowhere near the worst in baseball. Their defense was good enough to carry that brutal group to 13th best in fWAR for OF groups in baseball last year. If the defense gets up to 7+ fWAR this year like Arizona's was last year it'd make them a top 5 overall unit easy. Seems pretty plausible to me.

Great points. Love the actual data that proves my eye test wrong.

The Twins have been very poor at playing fundamental baseball (again, I’m sure there is data proving me wrong, but my eyes tell me differently). Hopefully, adding defensive specialists will help address that very big problem at least in the field (not necessarily at the plate or on the bases).

But where, other than when BB is on a good streak, is the excitement?

This team may win - the FO is clearly betting on the pitching staff and defence to lead the way.  And win they better, because this team could be incredibly boring to watch, and, with all the one year “rental” plateaued/declining players in major roles, incredibly hard to form emotional attachments.  I will “cheer” for them all, but will I (and other fans) really care? My gut tells me that very few fans will, especially if the wins aren’t piling up.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Great points. Love the actual data that proves my eye test wrong.

The Twins have been very poor at playing fundamental baseball (again, I’m sure there is data proving me wrong, but my eyes tell me differently). Hopefully, adding defensive specialists will help address that very big problem at least in the field (not necessarily at the plate or on the bases).

This team may win - the FO is clearly betting on the pitching staff and defence to lead the way.  And win they better, because this team could be incredibly boring to watch, and, with all the one year “rental” plateaued/declining players in major roles, incredibly hard to form emotional attachments.  I will “cheer” for them all, but will I (and other fans) really care? My gut tells me that very few fans will, especially if the wins aren’t piling up.

Your eyes aren't lying to you about their fundamentals. They were absolutely brutal on the bases last year. I'm hoping there's some real improvement in the fundamentals. Gallo is a good base runner. Correa is actually really bad, but feels like he's smart enough to be better. And there's some better athletes making their way to Minneapolis so I'm hoping overall it's better all around to watch.

The rental player stuff is an interesting part I've never really worried much about, because I'm a baseball nerd who pays attention to the entire league far more than the average fan. But it's been brought up by numerous people and I agree it's not ideal for building fan excitement. Wins tend to wipe away a lot of sins, but I do think it's smart to have more homegrown, long-term players that the fans can really connect with. I hope the short-term players has been more out of need than plan. They have a prospect wave arriving that needs to stay healthy and produce. If they do I think we see fewer Gallo signings and Urshela/Sanchez trades. Correa and Buxton leading the way with Kirilloff, Larnach, Lewis, Lee, Miranda, Julien, etc. would give them a nice position player base for us to fall in love with and have around for half a decade plus. Now we just need them all to stay healthy and produce!

[jmlease1]

The defense should be spectacularly good...even if there are injuries. Which is pretty cool. I really do enjoy seeing great outfield defense: watching guys go back on a ball and making that leaping catch (especially against the wall or stealing a HR), flying in with the diving catch, making that perfect throw to cut down a runner, etc is so much fun. So I'm excited to see what this group can do to frustrate the ever-livin' crap out of opposing hitters by catching everything in sight, etc. 

There are fair concerns about the offense: Gallo & Kepler are likely to be low average hitters at best, and that's less fun, and sometimes not very productive. But a healthy-ish Buxton should still hit in the .250 range along with a decent enough OBP and an excellent SLG, Larnach has shown stretches that he can be a complete player, and Nick Gordon is showing to be a quality hitter. Taylor will not be great, but he's not helpless at the plate: he'll slap some singles and get a few walks. The floor isn't too bad at all...just not as aesthetically pleasing, because there will be a lot of Ks out there. The ceiling is pretty crazy.

Best defensive OF for sure. Best overall? It could happen, and it wouldn't require too outlandish an increase in production from guys, mostly just average health and a movement towards career averages for some guys. Kepler's power was completely absent last season...probably had a lot to do with the busted toe. Maybe Gallo was just in an 18 month NYC funk. Larnach had a solid first month, caught fire, and then fell apart after getting hurt. Best overall is possible. Twins have upside, depth, and talent. They are ridiculously good defensively, with 5 guys that look like they are quality to elite defenders. 5! Could be very fun.

We're coming up on spring training. Why not be optimistic?

[Nashvilletwin]

11 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Your eyes aren't lying to you about their fundamentals. They were absolutely brutal on the bases last year. I'm hoping there's some real improvement in the fundamentals. Gallo is a good base runner. Correa is actually really bad, but feels like he's smart enough to be better. And there's some better athletes making their way to Minneapolis so I'm hoping overall it's better all around to watch.

The rental player stuff is an interesting part I've never really worried much about, because I'm a baseball nerd who pays attention to the entire league far more than the average fan. But it's been brought up by numerous people and I agree it's not ideal for building fan excitement. Wins tend to wipe away a lot of sins, but I do think it's smart to have more homegrown, long-term players that the fans can really connect with. I hope the short-term players has been more out of need than plan. They have a prospect wave arriving that needs to stay healthy and produce. If they do I think we see fewer Gallo signings and Urshela/Sanchez trades. Correa and Buxton leading the way with Kirilloff, Larnach, Lewis, Lee, Miranda, Julien, etc. would give them a nice position player base for us to fall in love with and have around for half a decade plus. Now we just need them all to stay healthy and produce!

Don’t forget Gordon, Wallner and Martin.  All those players need innings in 2023 to see what we really have for the future.  The FO, however, is committed to riding this pitching staff - our best staff on paper in years - in 2023. It’s not the time to be giving young players innings - why waste this staff?  There is definitely logic to the strategy. I get it. I just hope they have enough self awareness, humility, and fortitude to make the tough decisions if their strategy doesn’t work (so we don’t waste a year of big league development for a lot of those players). 

[Nashvilletwin]

16 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Larnach has shown stretches that he can be a complete player, and Nick Gordon is showing to be a quality hitter

Agree, too bad they are currently OF5 and OF6 on the depth chart and should only see significant innings and ABs if someone is hurt.

[rv78]

10 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Don’t forget Gordon, Wallner and Martin.  All those players need innings in 2023 to see what we really have for the future.  The FO, however, is committed to riding this pitching staff - our best staff on paper in years - in 2023. It’s not the time to be giving young players innings - why waste this staff?  There is definitely logic to the strategy. I get it. I just hope they have enough self awareness, humility, and fortitude to make the tough decisions if their strategy doesn’t work (so we don’t waste a year of big league development for a lot of those players). 

That's asking a lot of the FO. Remember they are the ones who evidently feel Gallo will somehow miraculously repeat his 2019 season. The only one in eight seasons where he hit better than .225. They some how feel Kepler will repeat his 2019 season. Coincidently 2019 was the season of the juiced ball. Chances are slim to none that either one of those 2 guys will be able to replicate those numbers ever again. The FO has little fortitude to make tough decisions. Just look at Pagan and how they've moved on from him, NOT. They used Colome all year in 2021. It took a multitude of horrific outings by Duffey for them to finally realize they had nothing there. Had Sano not injured his knee he would have taken the majority of at bats away from Miranda last year. Why does anyone think the veterans won't do the same this year to the young prospects. Player development won't happen at the big league level this year. Wallner, Martin, Lewis, Julien,  and any other top prospect won't play significant time with the roster full of the current veterans. They already committed to kicking that can down the road another season.

[Doctor Gast]

For sure the best defensive OF. Taking a way single here, double there throw in some triple & HR thefts for outs. Sure beats missing outs & let them turn into singles, doubles, triples & even HRs. Our kind of OF defense makes a lot of difference in won & lost games.

[Nashvilletwin]

8 minutes ago, rv78 said:

That's asking a lot of the FO. Remember they are the ones who evidently feel Gallo will somehow miraculously repeat his 2019 season. The only one in eight seasons where he hit better than .225. They some how feel Kepler will repeat his 2019 season. Coincidently 2019 was the season of the juiced ball. Chances are slim to none that either one of those 2 guys will be able to replicate those numbers ever again. The FO has little fortitude to make tough decisions. Just look at Pagan and how they've moved on from him, NOT. They used Colome all year in 2021. It took a multitude of horrific outings by Duffey for them to finally realize they had nothing there. Had Sano not injured his knee he would have taken the majority of at bats away from Miranda last year. Why does anyone think the veterans won't do the same this year to the young prospects. Player development won't happen at the big league level this year. Wallner, Martin, Lewis, Julien,  and any other top prospect won't play significant time with the roster full of the current veterans. They already committed to kicking that can down the road another season.

Sad, but likely true. Harsh, but likely accurate.

If the evidence is there, but the FO somehow deludes itself that we are contenders when we clearly are not and they end up not getting the necessary innings this season to the players who should be comprising our new young core starting next season and for the next five years, then the FO needs to be shown the door immediately.. 

[chpettit19]

16 minutes ago, rv78 said:

That's asking a lot of the FO. Remember they are the ones who evidently feel Gallo will somehow miraculously repeat his 2019 season. The only one in eight seasons where he hit better than .225. They some how feel Kepler will repeat his 2019 season. Coincidently 2019 was the season of the juiced ball. Chances are slim to none that either one of those 2 guys will be able to replicate those numbers ever again. The FO has little fortitude to make tough decisions. Just look at Pagan and how they've moved on from him, NOT. They used Colome all year in 2021. It took a multitude of horrific outings by Duffey for them to finally realize they had nothing there. Had Sano not injured his knee he would have taken the majority of at bats away from Miranda last year. Why does anyone think the veterans won't do the same this year to the young prospects. Player development won't happen at the big league level this year. Wallner, Martin, Lewis, Julien,  and any other top prospect won't play significant time with the roster full of the current veterans. They already committed to kicking that can down the road another season.

I think they're hoping for Gallo's 2021 season, and don't care about him hitting .225 vs .200. They'd be pretty happy with him being an All Star and winning a Gold Glove. Like he did in 2021. They traded a veteran to open space for Miranda to be the everyday 3B so I'm pretty sure they're not kicking that can down the road. Kirilloff and Larnach have never stayed healthy in the bigs, did you want them to have 2 guys who can't play more than a month or 2 of healthy ball as their primary cOF? Lewis won't be ready until June and has had back to back ACL surgeries. I'm the biggest Lewis supporter on this site, but not even I think they should clear the way for him before the season even starts. Julien has never played above AA. Martin hasn't either, and he had 1 ok month while he was there. Wallner needs all kinds of defensive work that can be done in AAA while he's the primary depth for the cOF spots in the majors. 

This is exactly how good teams are run. Handing jobs to Wallner, Martin, Lewis, and Julien would've been the worst possible move they could've made. What happens when one of them (or Larnach or Kirilloff) fails or gets hurt? Call up you and me to cover for them? You want Jake Cave and Tim Backham running around the OF again? Young guys are depth and take jobs. Like Miranda took Urshela's. They aren't handed them. That's an awful way to build a team.

Ober got 92 innings in that lost 2021 season. Jax got 82. That was 5th and 6th on the team. Joe Ryan debuted. Lewis Thorpe got another chance. Larnach debuted and got 79 games. Kirilloff got 59. Gordon got 73. Rooker 58. Rortvedt 39. Celestino played 23. It's almost like a whole bunch of young guys debuted and played a pretty decent amount of games in 2021 where they, according to you, refused to play young guys over veterans all season.

[jmlease1]

17 minutes ago, rv78 said:

They some how feel Kepler will repeat his 2019 season. Coincidently 2019 was the season of the juiced ball. Chances are slim to none that either one of those 2 guys will be able to replicate those numbers ever again. 

They 100% do not think Kepler will repeat his 2019 season. If they were convinced of that, Gallo would likely not be here, they would not have looked at dealing Kepler in the offseason. They know that's a fluke year. They are thinking that he will hit with a little more power than last season, which was far and away his worst power production as a major leaguer, and betting that he'll still play quality defense, take walks, and hit around .230. 

(BTW, Gallo did basically replicate those 2019 numbers for like 2/3 of a season in Texas in 2021. I doubt the front office expects to see that, but it's hardly crazy to think he might produce a season like the 2021 total, and that 121 OPS+ would have tied for 4th on the Twins last season. It won't be aesthetically pleasing to a lot of fans, but it might be productive...)

[JD-TWINS]

7 hours ago, Minny505 said:

It seems a forgone conclusion around here that Taylor will play CF against LHP while Buxton does the DH thing.

But I wonder if there are any discussions within Twins management to have Buxton play RF against LHP, which would be a huge upgrade over Kepler, and allow another right-handed bat to take over DH.

Corner OF is much less stress on the body as most plays are (statistically speaking) either towering fly balls that are relatively easy to get under or line drives and grounders that just need to be thrown back in. 

I doubt we see it, but it would probably be a middle ground of optimizing both Buxton's health and team performance.

V, LH pitching:

Taylor CF - Buxton DH - Correa SS - Miranda 1B - Polanco 2B - Farmer 3B - Gordon LF - Jeffers C - Kepler RF

Reserves:

Kiriloff - Larnach - Gallo

Vazquez has to sit for back up Catcher. He’s the only other RH hitter.

Moving Buxton around in OF when we have 3 guys that can play RF …..………….He’s going to hopefully play CF 80 games & DH 50 games & sit 30 games. If we get this from him, it’s 13 more games than any other year in his career (117 best so far). 

 

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, Beast said:

I’ve never understood the take that acquiring Gallo unequivocally means they need to move Kepler.  And the reason for that is Trevor Larnach, et all.

It made more sense when we still had Arraez on the roster.  We don’t anymore.

Trevor Larnach hasn’t done a whole to show he should be handed the keys to anything.  His numbers stink.

Gallo has positional flexibility.  He can play all 3 OF spots and first base.  The team has shown they like to rest guys and move them around.  There’s also a DH slot to fill.

There is a ridiculous track record of injuries on this club.  The guy currently assumed to be slotted in at 1B might never hit worth a squat in his career because of chronic wrist issue.  And, frankly, his overall numbers stink. 

They would get nothing in return for Kepler that exceeds his value to the team.  They would essentially be giving him away to make room for Gordon and Larnach.

The value of Kepler has gotten fairly underrated.  It’s almost turned into hyperbole this off-season. He’s been between a 2-4 WAR player every year of his career.

Gordon has a full seasons worth of plate appearances (over 600).  He’s got exactly a 0.0% WPA, a 101 OPS+, a .711 OPS, 1.7 WAR and a negative overall dWAR.  And people look at him like a prospect - he’s 2 years younger than Kepler at 27.

Trevor Larnach has just under a full season with a -2.5 WPA, a 94 OPS+, a .687 OPS, a 1.9 WAR and a 0.7 dWAR.  He’s 26.

These aren’t young guys.  They’re already exiting their physical prime.

Maybe Kepler won’t be any better that.  Who knows.  But right now, even with is anemic offense, his OF defense makes him a more valuable player than both of these guys.  He also has a longer track record of OPSing higher than both of these guys.  He makes 6 million dollars - that’s peanuts.  For context, Michael Taylor makes $4.5 to be a backup.

I just don’t see the benefit out running Kepler out of town for a poor return right now.  It just feels like a bad move.

Gallo’s flexibility is a big plus with this team’s brutal injury track record.

Assumption is Larnach gets the chance to be LH DH & if he can hit he may get a chance in ‘24 to play some corner OF.

Keeping Kepler because of Buxton - Larnach etc. potential on the IL is a solid move. Can’t have Celestino level guys playing in the SHOW due to injuries if we can help it - that’s keeping Max.

That’s where we split thoughts. Kepler has been regressing offensively for 3 years……Gordon has only played one year of pro career healthy. Intestinal problem finally figured out & he gained 25 lb in 2022. If you take away his break-in year of ‘21 & look at the two guys in his 2nd  year & Kepler’s 8th year it’s a different story.

2022 comparison:

                   Kepler              Gordon

RBI              43                      50

AB’s           388                    405

BA             .227                    .272

HR                9                       9

Doubles       18                     28

OPS             .666                 .743

OPS+.             93                   113

BB.                 49                    19

SO.                 66.                 105

Gordon is getting stronger & seems durable. Deserves more starts in 2023……80 in LF & 50 in CF. $700K

Not positive, but it seems Max makes maybe $8 million plus in ‘23……..may be wrong?

[Jeff D.]

Quote

 

While I anxiously await the 2023 season to begin, I remain extremely skeptical about our Twins and the leadership.

What I do wonder about is our centerfield position, our strikeouts, our hitting coach, our starting pitching durability, how our RF'er will hopefully improve with the shift gone, Baldelli, how Arraez not adding 200 hits will affect the on base %, our catching spot and a few more tidbits.

That being said, GO TWINS!

Twins Geezer, OUT!

[The_Phantom]

Considering this article is about how good the outfield defense will be, it’s disingenuous to say Buxton played in 92 games last year.

Buxton played 51 games in centerfield last year. He started in 86 games last year (pinch hit in 6) and he was designated hitter in 35 of those games.