Spend on Bats, Bank on Arms: This Front Office's Strategy Is Clear

[Nick Nelson]

By trading for Pablo López as their big offseason rotation addition, the Twins followed a familiar script, leveraging talent to acquire cost-controlled pitching while allocating their budget primarily to the offense.

For better or worse, it's grown clear this strategy is very intentional.

Image courtesy of Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports

Earlier this month, the Twins shocked the baseball world by signing Carlos Correa to a $200 million contract. The move would've seemed inconceivable for this franchise as recently as five years ago, but in recent offseasons, Minnesota has signaled its willingness to start wading into the deeper end of the spending pool.

After all, they first signed Correa just a year ago, albeit to a short interstitial deal that paved way for this one. Months earlier, the Twins had extended Byron Buxton with a $100 million contract, two years after handing free agent Josh Donaldson a then-record $92 million.

Compared to the previous regime, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have shown a drastically greater willingness to profer these kinds of large-scale contracts, which are somewhat rare for teams in their class. (For context, Chicago's $75 million deal for Andrew Benintendi last month was the largest free agent commitment in White Sox history.)

Notably, however, this appetite has been limited entirely to the position player side. Minnesota's current front office has been comparatively averse to investing dollars on the pitching side. Pablo López falls in line with a distinct pattern when it comes to acquiring rotation help: they trade talent (in this case Luis Arraez) for a cost-controlled starter who fits snugly into the budgeting forecast for multiple seasons.

Minnesota did the same thing with Tyler Mahle at the deadline last year, and with Sonny Gray the prior offseason. They did it with Chris Paddack, and Kenta Maeda, and Jake Odorizzi. They traded away José Berríos, in part, because he was reaching the end of that cost-controlled window.

Only in one case have these situations ever led to the Twins paying a remotely market-rate salary for one of these frontline starters: in 2020, when Odorizzi accepted the qualifying offer to earn around $18 million. Of course, the club ended up paying out less than half that amount due to the truncated COVID season.

Outside of that instance, Gray's $12.5 million salary this year will supplant Lance Lynn in 2018 ($12 million) as the highest salary paid to any pitcher acquired by this front office in seven years. Michael Pineda's two-year, $20 million contract signed in December of 2019 – also prorated down, because of his carryover suspension – remains the largest Falvey has given a pitcher. It's 10% of the amount they just guaranteed Correa.

So like I said, the pattern is pretty stark. The question is, what's driving it? Why are the Twins comfortable allocating such an outsized proportion of their available budget to position players while persistently minimizing money tied up in arms?

I think it comes down to volatility and risk.

Back in November, I wrote an article on the troubling realities of buying high on free agent pitching. I was citing a dynamic that I believe prevents the Twins – and really, the vast majority of mid-market teams – from winning bids for top free agent pitchers available at their peak.

Namely: you are paying the utmost long-term premium for pitchers in their late 20s or early 30s who are hitting the sharp downward slope of the aging curve. Look back no further than last year's free-agent class to see the pitfalls of this buy-high philosophy: Robbie Ray, for example, got a $115 million deal from the Mariners coming off a breakout Cy Young year and then reverted right back to his previous ordinary form. The contract already looks like a hindrance for them.

There are worse outcomes. Signing up commit pay big bucks to starting pitchers, who've already often logged 1,000+ innings, through their mid-30s is flat-out hazardous. The Yankees bought high on Carlos Rodón and earmarked $162 million to lock him up through age 35. The upside he brings as a true ace exceeds almost any bat you can buy on the market, but it's counterbalanced by the tremendous risk of his shoulder issues flaring up and making him a non-factor.

With their financial inhibitions, New York can afford to assume that risk without catastrophic collateral downside. Most teams operating in lesser markets can't or won't. 

Of course, there's even more risk in simply not acquiring pitching talent. It's not an option if you want to compete, and you lack the elite development machines of a Tampa or Cleveland.

For Minnesota, the preferred course has been to trade for second-tier starters in their prime. This prevents risky long-term commitments and keeps the rotation's budget share in check, enabling the Twins to invest in building around the likes of Correa and Buxton, who now occupy a third of the payroll with almost 300 million in combined dollars owed.

I'm not going to say staking the franchise's future on Correa and Buxton is WITHOUT RISK, of course, but star position players tend to age a bit more reliably than standout starting pitchers, in part because they have more "outs."

If injuries continue to impact Buxton, he can still make a real difference while spending time at DH, as we saw last year. If Correa's ankle forces him off shortstop, he can move to third, as he planned to with the Mets.

When you're paying top dollar for a starting pitcher and they get struck by injuries that keep them off the mound or diminish their performance, it's harder to maintain that value equation. For teams with finite spending capabilities (self-imposed as they may be), that matters.

Continually trading quality prospects to replenish their rotation will not necessarily be a viable strategy for the Twins going forward, so the success of this approach really comes down to how well their efforts with the pitching pipeline come together. 

The front office has put in place a potential lineage to support sustained rotation success – with Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson followed by the likes of Marco Raya, Connor Prieilipp, and more – but pressure is rising to see it pay off and embed some legitimate fixtures so they don't have to keep trading their way to patchwork solutions.

In theory, allocating your funds to superstar everyday players and relying on a sustained and regenerative pipeline of younger, fresher, lower-cost pitchers is a savvy strategy. In theory.

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[HerbieFan]

I might get blasted here, but I thought the Arraez/Lopez trade was good for the Twins...partly b/c of the prospects added by Miami.  Partly b/c of the average-at-best defense at 2B and 3B/lack of power/problematic knees, etc..

But I think it's pretty obvious that if the Twins are ever going to have an "ace" they are going to have to develop him.  They aren't going to, probably rightfully so, spend top dollar on a FA.  They also, probably rightfully so, aren't likely to ship out half their farm system in a trade for one.  To me, that's where the pressure is on Falvine.....Derek, find us our Shane Bieber!  Or our Frank Viola.  Or Johan Santana.....

[old nurse]

In 6 years 2 contracts do not make a pattern

One year, contract year large free agent signings almost never turn out well. Gasman in Toronto may be the exception.

It seems like pitchers have become more likely to break or strain something now more often than hops in the senior’s high rise. Investing in quantity seems like the analytic thing to do.

 

[Shaitan]

They've also acquired above average defenders at C, SS, and CF.

[Nick Nelson]

4 minutes ago, Shaitan said:

They've also acquired above average defenders at C, SS, and CF.

Very true. Underrated moves on behalf of the pitching staff. There are many ways to approach run prevention.

[tony&rodney]

The biggest change has been how the payroll jumped in the last five years. Financial constraints can limit the decisions that get made. I don't believe there is much room to compare the different front offices of Falvey and Ryan.

The move to sign Buxton was a gamble and continues to carry some low grade risk, while the Correa contract was a real marked change to commit to winning, in my opinion.

There are several prospects on the verge of breaking out or crashing. It might be difficult to know right now, but the talent is present. Kirilloff, Lewis, and Larnach could or should be able to contribute in a real meaningful fashion this year and Gordon could easily improve as well. His health issues seem to be in the past. Additionally, there are legitimate reasons to believe in Lee, Martin, Julien, and Wallner as prospects pushing for their opportunity. Miranda had a good year last year and would like to prove he can be much better given a second round at the pitchers. Even Jeffers could rebound.

The combination of the older core and the emerging core projects potential success. Falvey and friends have some talent on hand which allowed for the team to swap out Arraez for Pablo Lopez. Depending on how the ten players in the paragraph above perform, the Twins may find it possible to complete a further trade for strong starting pitching again, even as they hope to see some of their own pitching prospects flourish. 

Buxton, Correa, and Vasquez will be around for at least three years. Polanco and Kepler could be around a couple more years as well. The Twins are building quite a bit of flexibility into their roster management. One could even imagine a mid season push for Burnes via trade in the right situation. The financial support from the top has created real opportunity and flexible alternatives for building the roster in recent history.

[davidborton]

Quote

...The Twins followed a familiar script, leveraging talent to acquire cost-controlled pitching while allocating their budget primarily to the offense.

Very well articulated, succinctly stated. Good article, though I wish they would focus on improved drafting and solid development. Not sure that is in place.

[dxpavelka]

Who is more likely to be earning his paycheck at 35, Rodon or Correa?

[h2oface]

They also like to trade the highest upside pitching prospects for quesionable arm health, instead of developing them. Graterol was MLB ready, and developed in-house all the way from a MiLB free agent!

[Wizard11]

Most likely Correa as his annual salary will have dropped quite bit from the first 6 years

[TopGunn#22]

Great article Nick.  It certainly does seem this is the strategy.  I would expect to see small or large departures depending on the player who is in play.  And I don't think the Twins are done making moves just yet.  It feels like something else will happen prior to spring training.  A Kepler trade?  A BP signing?  But depending on how some of their prospects develop, there could be the aforementioned trade deadline deal by tony&rodney for someone like Corbin Burnes or Brandon Woodruff depending on how the Brewers season is going.  

[mikelink45]

I like the rotation, but I am hoping that when one or two go down we will see the young arms move into the rotation and stay there.  That is the future.  The BP can jettison the Pagan types and fill it with young arms to give them ML experience.  Relying on trades just reduces your youth.  Trading players when they have value to get good return and that is what they did with Arraez.  Have we waited too long for Polanco and Kepler?  Will we end up trading Gray or extending? 

Trade a player a year too early rather than a year too late. - Branch Rickey

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I agree with your analysis on this strategy Nick.  It will be interesting to see if the Twins retain any of these cost-controlled acquisitions long-term or whether they constantly recycle in new trade acquisitions.  I suspect that they acquired these primarily to hold down the fort until that pipeline develops, but if they hit on one or two of these acquisitions they may decide to extend them.

[IndianaTwin]

Maybe. 

We only see the final results of who signed and who didn't. We actually don't know what the conversations with others have been along the way. We're told that they made significant offers to Wheeler and others and that they were pursuing Rodon, etc. 

I think the bigger trend may be to say that they are "risk-averse" when it comes to free agent offers. They took a (comparably) cautious approach to Correa, and he took it. They took a (comparably) cautious approach to Wheeler, and he didn't, etc.

As a result, and as the result of what they already had and player development, they've needed to supplement the pitching side via trade more than they have needed to supplement the hitting side. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Good article Nick. I would like to read some articles about the Twins development personnel and an article  or two about how the Twins evaluate  players for the draft. What's involved. Who are the researchers? Who are the top advisors to the FO concerning the draft. How much of the draft is a crap shoot and how much is based on measured analysis and analytics and what analytics are key?

[rwilfong86]

Lopez looks like he will be a good clubhouse guy and if he can be a #2 guy behind Gray I think this will turn out well. I hated the trade at first, but as the days go by, I am warming up to it.

[chpettit19]

6 hours ago, h2oface said:

They also like to trade the highest upside pitching prospects for quesionable arm health, instead of developing them. Graterol was MLB ready, and developed in-house all the way from a MiLB free agent!

Kenta Maeda had no injury problems in LA. Not sure what the complaint is here. Graterol has never even struck out 9 per 9. Relievers that don't average at least 1 K per inning are not "the highest upside pitching prospects." Even missing an entire season to TJ Maeda has provided more value to the Twins than Graterol has to the Dodgers. By a significant margin.

[vulturepaj]

Did we just see Luis Arraez' best year?  Highly probable. 

Can he make up any decline in hitting by presenting on defense?  Certainly not.  He was horrible at 2b/3b and hideous in LF. 

Does he look like a 1B to you?  Does he feel like a DH to you?  9 HR in his career year... is that going up from here?  

Does Alex Kiriloff look like a 1B to you?  He sure does.  Do Wallner or Larnach (and others) seem like possible quality DHs to you?  Yep.

Has the league seen Pablo Lopez' best year yet?  Quite probably not.

The Twins sold on the probable top-tick of Arraez' career and even got the extra fan headline juice that comes with the Batting Title.

Arraez is a solid player.  I don't believe the intention should be to plan for and pay "solid" players.  Rather, seek out and try to develop exceptional players.  Kiriloff may be that at 1B.  Lopez may be that at SP.  

And we got two more dart throws for the future in the deal.

If Royce can transition to 3B and play average defense there (seems plausible), Miranda will move to primary DH. You have this type of defense then (assuming Kepler stays):

C - Vasquez/Jeffers -- Above average

1B - Kiriloff -- Average?

2B - Polanco -- Average.

SS - Correa - Exceptional

3B - Royce - Average

LF - Gallo/Taylor - Exceptional

CF - Buxty/Taylor - Exceptional

RF - Max/Gallo - Exceptional

In very smart fashion and in such a way that previous front offices wouldn't have tried, Falvey has shown great creativity and foresight.  Great move.

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, vulturepaj said:

Did we just see Luis Arraez' best year?  Highly probable. 

Can he make up any decline in hitting by presenting on defense?  Certainly not.  He was horrible at 2b/3b and hideous in LF. 

Does he look like a 1B to you?  Does he feel like a DH to you?  9 HR in his career year... is that going up from here?  

Does Alex Kiriloff look like a 1B to you?  He sure does.  Do Wallner or Larnach (and others) seem like possible quality DHs to you?  Yep.

Has the league seen Pablo Lopez' best year yet?  Quite probably not.

The Twins sold on the probable top-tick of Arraez' career and even got the extra fan headline juice that comes with the Batting Title.

Arraez is a solid player.  I don't believe the intention should be to plan for and pay "solid" players.  Rather, seek out and try to develop exceptional players.  Kiriloff may be that at 1B.  Lopez may be that at SP.  

And we got two more dart throws for the future in the deal.

If Royce can transition to 3B and play average defense there (seems plausible), Miranda will move to primary DH. You have this type of defense then (assuming Kepler stays):

C - Vasquez/Jeffers -- Above average

1B - Kiriloff -- Average?

2B - Polanco -- Average.

SS - Correa - Exceptional

3B - Royce - Average

LF - Gallo/Taylor - Exceptional

CF - Buxty/Taylor - Exceptional

RF - Max/Gallo - Exceptional

In very smart fashion and in such a way that previous front offices wouldn't have tried, Falvey has shown great creativity and foresight.  Great move.

I am fine with your analysis until the OF - Gallo and exceptional does not compute.  

[Omardog]

Adding smart executive talent in the front office that can do better at evaluating pitching talent in the draft would be an enormous help.  The Twins seem unwilling and incapable of drafting high end pitching talent.

[Parfigliano]

10 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Who is more likely to be earning his paycheck at 35, Rodon or Correa?

Correa.

[miller761]

This is no guarantee for success but I certainly like where this roster is compared to last year even at the end of spring training when the additions were made. If the above article is correct in outlining the FO strategy I am very optimistic about this season and the ones to come. Now comes the fun part - playing the games.

 

[vulturepaj]

20 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I am fine with your analysis until the OF - Gallo and exceptional does not compute.  

Gallo is exceptional in RF, on par with Kepler and holds TWO Gold Gloves.

Rtot/yr -- Total Zone Total Fielding Runs Above Avg per 1,200 Inn
The number of runs above or below average the fielder was worth per 1,200 Innings (approx 135 games).
This number combines the Rtz, Rdp, Rof, Rcatch numbers into a total defensive contribution.
See the glossary section for a more complete explanation.
Provided by BaseballProjection.com

Below is the career Rtot/Yr at each position for Twins Position Players

Player	Pos	G	Rtot/yr
Alex Kiriloff	RF	35	5
Alex Kiriloff	LF	34	(25)
Alex Kiriloff	1B	47	7
Arraez, Luis	2B	169	0
Arraez, Luis	3B	79	(7)
Arraez, Luis	1B	65	13
Arraez, Luis	LF	48	(8)
Buxton, Byron	CF	542	15
Carlos Correa	SS	881	7
Celestino, Gilberto	CF	112	(2)
Celestino, Gilberto	LF	29	32
Celestino, Gilberto	RF	10	35
Christian Vazquez	C	681	11
Farmer, Kyle	SS	235	2
Farmer, Kyle	3B	86	(2)
Farmer, Kyle	2B	63	14
Gallo, Joey	LF	284	0
Gallo, Joey	RF	209	31
Gallo, Joey	1B	96	2
Gallo, Joey	CF	56	1
Gordon, Nick	LF	73	(3)
Gordon, Nick	CF	72	(4)
Gordon, Nick	2B	53	(2)
Gordon, Nick	SS	31	(23)
Jorge Polanco	SS	501	(9)
Jorge Polanco	2B	222	0
Kepler, Max	RF	700	16
Kepler, Max	CF	159	(6)
Larnach, Trevor	LF	93	(9)
Miranda, Jose	1B	77	(1)
Miranda, Jose	3B	34	(15)
Ryan Jeffers	C	168	(4)

 

[Whitey333]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Kenta Maeda had no injury problems in LA. Not sure what the complaint is here. Graterol has never even struck out 9 per 9. Relievers that don't average at least 1 K per inning are not "the highest upside pitching prospects." Even missing an entire season to TJ Maeda has provided more value to the Twins than Graterol has to the Dodgers. By a significant margin.

Actually Maeda had arm and injury concerns with the Dodgers.  That's why the Dodgers were able to sign him to a team friendly deal at the time.

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Actually Maeda had arm and injury concerns with the Dodgers.  That's why the Dodgers were able to sign him to a team friendly deal at the time.

Kenta Maeda had no arm and injury concerns while he was with the Dodgers for 4 seasons. He made 32 starts his first year. 25 his second year before going to the pen for the end of the season and playoffs. 20 in his 3rd year before going to the pen again. 26 in his 4th year before the pen move. He may have had concerns before they signed him, but while he was with the Dodgers he had no issues at all. Trying to sell Maeda as some sort of higher than usual risk when the Twins acquired him is ignoring the realities of what he did in LA. He had 3 IL stints with the Dodgers. All of which he spent the minimum amount of time on the IL and were for leg injuries. That is by no means a guy with "arm and injury concerns with the Dodgers." That's just a regular MLB pitcher.

[wabene]

1 hour ago, vulturepaj said:

Did we just see Luis Arraez' best year?  Highly probable. 

Can he make up any decline in hitting by presenting on defense?  Certainly not.  He was horrible at 2b/3b and hideous in LF. 

Does he look like a 1B to you?  Does he feel like a DH to you?  9 HR in his career year... is that going up from here?  

Does Alex Kiriloff look like a 1B to you?  He sure does.  Do Wallner or Larnach (and others) seem like possible quality DHs to you?  Yep.

Has the league seen Pablo Lopez' best year yet?  Quite probably not.

The Twins sold on the probable top-tick of Arraez' career and even got the extra fan headline juice that comes with the Batting Title.

Arraez is a solid player.  I don't believe the intention should be to plan for and pay "solid" players.  Rather, seek out and try to develop exceptional players.  Kiriloff may be that at 1B.  Lopez may be that at SP.  

And we got two more dart throws for the future in the deal.

If Royce can transition to 3B and play average defense there (seems plausible), Miranda will move to primary DH. You have this type of defense then (assuming Kepler stays):

C - Vasquez/Jeffers -- Above average

1B - Kiriloff -- Average?

2B - Polanco -- Average.

SS - Correa - Exceptional

3B - Royce - Average

LF - Gallo/Taylor - Exceptional

CF - Buxty/Taylor - Exceptional

RF - Max/Gallo - Exceptional

In very smart fashion and in such a way that previous front offices wouldn't have tried, Falvey has shown great creativity and foresight.  Great move.

Excellent comment VP and exactly what keeps me coming back to TD in spite of the bushwhacking necessary to behold such meadows of insight. 🙂

[dex8425]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I like the rotation, but I am hoping that when one or two go down we will see the young arms move into the rotation and stay there.  That is the future.  The BP can jettison the Pagan types and fill it with young arms to give them ML experience.  Relying on trades just reduces your youth.  Trading players when they have value to get good return and that is what they did with Arraez.  Have we waited too long for Polanco and Kepler?  Will we end up trading Gray or extending? 

 

I've wondered about Gray too. No way they trade him. As long as he's healthy this year I see him as a QO candidate, so at least you don't lose him for nothing, but otherwise I think they let another team pay Gray for the back third of his career.  

[dex8425]

57 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I am fine with your analysis until the OF - Gallo and exceptional does not compute.  

Defensively Gallo is excellent. Dude can run, and has an absolute rocket launcher for an arm. I watched him in Texas quite a bit. 

[rwilfong86]

1 hour ago, miller761 said:

This is no guarantee for success but I certainly like where this roster is compared to last year even at the end of spring training when the additions were made. If the above article is correct in outlining the FO strategy I am very optimistic about this season and the ones to come. Now comes the fun part - playing the games.

 

The proof of the pudding is in the eating. My biggest question is who will be hitting leadoff since Arraez held that spot so well last season.

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, vulturepaj said:

Gallo is exceptional in RF, on par with Kepler and holds TWO Gold Gloves.

Rtot/yr -- Total Zone Total Fielding Runs Above Avg per 1,200 Inn
The number of runs above or below average the fielder was worth per 1,200 Innings (approx 135 games).
This number combines the Rtz, Rdp, Rof, Rcatch numbers into a total defensive contribution.
See the glossary section for a more complete explanation.
Provided by BaseballProjection.com

Below is the career Rtot/Yr at each position for Twins Position Players

Player	Pos	G	Rtot/yr
Alex Kiriloff	RF	35	5
Alex Kiriloff	LF	34	(25)
Alex Kiriloff	1B	47	7
Arraez, Luis	2B	169	0
Arraez, Luis	3B	79	(7)
Arraez, Luis	1B	65	13
Arraez, Luis	LF	48	(8)
Buxton, Byron	CF	542	15
Carlos Correa	SS	881	7
Celestino, Gilberto	CF	112	(2)
Celestino, Gilberto	LF	29	32
Celestino, Gilberto	RF	10	35
Christian Vazquez	C	681	11
Farmer, Kyle	SS	235	2
Farmer, Kyle	3B	86	(2)
Farmer, Kyle	2B	63	14
Gallo, Joey	LF	284	0
Gallo, Joey	RF	209	31
Gallo, Joey	1B	96	2
Gallo, Joey	CF	56	1
Gordon, Nick	LF	73	(3)
Gordon, Nick	CF	72	(4)
Gordon, Nick	2B	53	(2)
Gordon, Nick	SS	31	(23)
Jorge Polanco	SS	501	(9)
Jorge Polanco	2B	222	0
Kepler, Max	RF	700	16
Kepler, Max	CF	159	(6)
Larnach, Trevor	LF	93	(9)
Miranda, Jose	1B	77	(1)
Miranda, Jose	3B	34	(15)
Ryan Jeffers	C	168	(4)

 

Sorry, my eye test says we have a fielding analytic that is off the rails.  A corner OF fielding has never been as important as his bat.