Does Either Former Twins Slugger Have Anything Left?

[Ted Schwerzler]

Over the past handful of years we have seen front offices re-evaluate how they go about paying sluggers. While the designated hitter has become universal, and there are some players truly not fit to play in the field, most boppers must now possess more than just power potential. This trend is working against two ex-Twins who provided explosive power for the Twins' 2019 Bomba Squad.

 

Image courtesy of © Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports

We rarely see players like Chris Davis, Khris Davis, or Chris Carter on the baseball diamond anymore. The Baltimore Orioles immediately looked questionable when giving Chris Davis a bloated deal as analytics began to weigh on-base percentages differently. Both Miguel Sano and Nelson Cruz have shown a better approach than some of the aforementioned names, but as each heads elsewhere you have to wonder what either have left.

Recently the San Diego Padres signed Cruz for just $1 million. That is his lowest yearly salary since he was 29-years-old back in 2010. Expected to get plenty of designated hitter at bats for the Padres, there was very little evidence that the aging process had not have caught up to Cruz a season ago.

Playing 124 games with the Washington Nationals, Cruz posted a paltry .651 OPS and 90 OPS+. His 148 OPS+ with the Twins in 2021 was all but gone, and he began a steep decline with the Tampa Bay Rays after he was traded midseason. Cruz still hit ten homers last year, but his .313 OBP was a far-cry from the .344 mark he has put up over the course of his career.

Cruz rebounded from the .283 OBP he posted with the Rays in 55 games last year, but his slugging percentage dropping to .337 really limits what the potential upside is. Of course, the Padres aren’t making a significant financial commitment by any means, but Steamer projections have him tabbed for just 0.2 fWAR a .714 OPS and nine home runs. It’s hard to see how that type of output lasts in the lineup all year.

Then there is Sano.

Playing in only 20 games for Minnesota last year, he posted an unfathomably bad -0.9 fWAR. By the end of the season he was all but asked to leave the team, and there doesn’t appear to be a reunion tour coming. While Jeremy Nygaard wrote a great piece on Sano, it would be shocking to see Minnesota reopen that door. What I do think remains possible is that Sano finds himself still being a productive slugger.

A season ago Sano was hurt. Injuring his meniscus and then having rehab go both slowly and poorly, he never worked himself back into shape. That has been part of the bugaboo his whole career, and tapping into a newfound work ethic probably isn’t something that a new team be able to rely upon.

Sano at his baseline though can still get it done in stretches. During 2021, the Twins saw Sano post a 112 OPS+ and blast 30 home runs. His .819 OPS and 119 OPS+ excluding last year is a better offensive profile than Joey Gallo, and Sano has always shown a solid ability to draw walks and command the strike zone. He has rarely been a free-swinger, struggling more with whiffs on velocity than anything, and there has never been a doubt about his immense power.

What should be notable here is that perception of personality matters. A 42-year-old Nelson Cruz is getting a chance because he brings a great clubhouse presence. The Padres can afford to jettison him if he is truly cooked. Miguel Sano is still looking for his next gig, and while it most likely will need to be a minor league deal, his suitors are not as plentiful given the track record he has accumulated.

There is probably a path for Sano to have a better season than Cruz, and even by a substantial margin. The question is who will bite the bullet on allowing it to play out?

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[CRF]

I don't know if either of them has "anything left", as long as they're not trying to find out if they do, while wearing a Twins uni.

[Doctor Gast]

I disagree that both have plenty in the tank. Cruz had eye problems that's fixed. Cruz knows how to take care of his body. Sano is young but his problem is doesn't take of himself & his SOs.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I must respectfully disagree that Sano has always been able to "command the strike zone". To me it appeared that the strike zone commanded Sano. 

[South Dakota Tom]

I can't vouch for where Miguel is, physically and emotionally, and his production depends in no small part on his energy, commitment, and effort.  That being said, I am a bigger fan of his than most on here.  He has carried this team for weeks-long stretches in the past, and is more than capable of doing the same again.

His periods of greatest productivity, it seems to me, came amidst a team-wide boon.  He is not someone who a team can hide well in a lineup of underproducing batsmen.  However, when placed before/after hitters in a stronger lineup, where they cannot afford to nibble at him (cue the visual of him missing a low outside curve by a solid foot), he has shown prodigious power and enough of a keen eye to be dangerous.  If you can stomach the strikeouts, he's a walking .800 OPS/30+ HR guy.

To me, in 2023, he is a potential early-season possibility.  The team needs RH power (check) and doesn't have a set DH against lefties.  IF (and only if) the team trades Kepler, thereby moving Kiriloff to full-time 1B, Larnach/Gordon to LF, and does not bring up Julien right away (which would be great if he earned it, but admittedly a long shot), we would have a bench/DH of Jeffers, Farmer, Celestino, Gordon/Larnach.  I could see Miguel in the 6-hole.  That might not last forever, especially if he struggles or is not in shape (and that ship may already have sailed), but as a bridge until Julien/Lewis/Lee is ready, it's not the worst option.

Yes, I would rather have Kepler/Buxton/Gallo in the outfield and use Farmer, Vazquez, or Larnach as a DH.  But if we get value for Kep and want to clear space for other outfielders, he is a buy-low candidate.

[rv78]

"Yes, I would rather have Kepler/Buxton/Gallo in the outfield"

I would have to respectfully disagree. While they may be 3 of the best defensive guys the Twins could put out there, their offensive production would probably be the worst in the majors. If you like seeing an occasional HR in-between 3 guys that have gotten every good at walking back to the dugout after recording another K then by all means enjoy it. I have grown tired of watching the all or nothing approach that very seldom results in run production.

[rwilfong86]

Sano needs a new environment, I wish him the best but his best should be on another team.

[HoskenPowell]

Has anyone seen him???  Is he still 25 lbs overweight????    (being generous in the 25 I think too)  

He was simply too lazy to even attempt to be in shape.  Professional athletes don't show up 25 lbs overweight every spring training.  Twins shouldn't of had to watch him attempt to get in playing shape in June.

[mikelink45]

Sano was really a disappointment to many of us.  We had higher hopes, but he regressed (not just the injury) instead of progressing.  Not that I like Gallo any better except for his glove.  I do hope he finds himself and gets back into MLB, but the fact that no one has taken a chance on him so far says a lot about the leagues perspective. 

[Einheri]

I still think Sano could get a good deal in Japan.

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, rv78 said:

"Yes, I would rather have Kepler/Buxton/Gallo in the outfield"

I would have to respectfully disagree. While they may be 3 of the best defensive guys the Twins could put out there, their offensive production would probably be the worst in the majors. If you like seeing an occasional HR in-between 3 guys that have gotten every good at walking back to the dugout after recording another K then by all means enjoy it. I have grown tired of watching the all or nothing approach that very seldom results in run production.

To be fair to Max, he's absolutely not a K machine. 14.8% last year, and 17.9% for his career.

And as for their OF offense, even with the injuries to basically everyone, and playing all of September with an OF of AAA players, they were still 16th in OF offensive production according to wRC+ last year. I think you're selling the rest of the league short on how bad some of them truly are. You may not enjoy the "all or nothing approach" (and I think most fans agree, that's why MLB is changing rules), but it is actually pretty good at producing runs. Just not entertainment. There's a reason teams accept Ks for HRs. HRs are the best way to score.

[Parfigliano]

6 hours ago, CRF said:

I don't know if either of them has "anything left", as long as they're not trying to find out if they do, while wearing a Twins uni.

See if Sano will take a minor league deal

[Otaknam]

Respectfully, you apparently never watched Sano flail away at bat after at bat for whatever part of the season he stayed healthy. He has shown zero ability to command the strike zone since his rookie year, when he looked like he could be a version of Miguel Cabrera. He swings at anything, and his disinterest in off season conditioning is legendary. You are correct that he couldn’t catch up to major league fastballs, which is the one pitch most swing and miss sluggers like Sano feast on. He had a few moments but ultimately was a massive disappointment in Minnesota. What a waste of talent! But I wish him well as he tries to resurrect his career. 

[Fat Calvin]

3 hours ago, HoskenPowell said:

Has anyone seen him???  Is he still 25 lbs overweight????    (being generous in the 25 I think too)  

He was simply too lazy to even attempt to be in shape.  Professional athletes don't show up 25 lbs overweight every spring training.  Twins shouldn't of had to watch him attempt to get in playing shape in June.

What about Babe Ruth?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

11 minutes ago, Fat Calvin said:

What about Babe Ruth?

Sano is 2” taller and 60lbs heavier

[dxpavelka]

Most entertaining hitter to wear a Twins uniform since Killebrew.  Perfect candidate for future "We didn't need him" features.

[jmlease1]

Cruz is a true professional, a great guy, and is going to turn 43 around midseason. He wasn't good last season, wasn't good after getting dealt to TB, and any hoped for bounceback effect has to reckon with the fact that Time is undefeated. I think the deal SD offered was perfectly reasonable; they didn't have a DH locked in, Cruz is a great professional to add to the clubhouse with some young players, and at $1M it's easy enough to let him go if he stinks. 

Sano has really struggled with injuries. He's increasingly looking like a DH with that problem and his generally poor defense at 1B, and he's got a pattern of getting out of synch at the plate where he couldn't hit water if he fell out of a %$%*&# boat for lengthy periods. But he's not that old and it hasn't been that long since he's also had stretches where he smashes the hell out of the ball, and he's always had enough strike zone judgment to draw walks. I wouldn't be surprised at all if a team gave him a Cruz-like "prove it" contract.

I just don't think either is a good fit for MN any longer. I think we're wise not to have a permanent DH and to be able to cycle players through when we want their bats in the lineup but want to give them a break from the field (Buxton definitely comes to mind here). Both of these guys have red flags whether they can produce enough to be a quality DH (Cruz with age and declining skills, Sano with injuries and inconsistency). It's time to move on from both.

If I had to bet on which one has the better season...I guess if I was forced I'd pick Cruz: better track record, good professional, less injury history. Sano's younger with more upside, but plenty of red flags. I don't think either is going to be particularly good, though. If you set the OPS for either player in 2023 at .725 I would bet the under.

[sun]

The average MLB career lasts 5.6 years and Sano played for 7 not including last year. He probably lasted that long due to his surgeries. Cruz is considered to be a superhero compared to the length of most MLB careers. The odds are very low that Sano will ever be a MLB player ever again  The average retirement age is about 29.5 years which means that Sano's retirement is right on schedule because he's almost 30.

https://www.listfoundation.org/the-short-length-of-the-average-mlb-career

[joemama]

I hope someone signs him to a cheap minor league contract and lets him see if he can make it back.  I'm fine if that's MN, but it would be better for him if it isn't.  Maybe Miami?  I've also always thought he would benefit from adopting more knee bend in his batting stance and a shorter, more compact swing; Lord knows he has enough strength to make that work. But what do I know?!

[singlesoverwalks]

I expect Sanó will get red hot in AAA at some point for some non-Twins team and get a call-up. I don't know how he'll perform in the majors. I think the right coach could possibly still get through to him, unless he's dealing with some deeper problem that we don't know about. I wish him the best. I always thought he had his heart in the right place.

Lazy? What shows he's lazy, weight gain? A lot of people, professional athletes included, struggle with their weight. It's rarely because of laziness.

[minman1982]

I have to believe there is someone out there who is going to offer Sano a minor league deal and ship him to AAA just to take a chance.  I don't think it will be the Twins but someone will spend a couple hundred thousand just to see if Sano still has something.