Three Areas the Twins Need Change During 2023

[Ted Schwerzler]

There is no denying that the 2022 Minnesota Twins left plenty to be desired. Sure they were leading the AL Central division for a substantial portion of the regular season, but there was no point in which it wasn’t evident they were bleeding wins. The bullpen failed to close things out, and the lineup did little to add more often than not. Fixing those realities in the year ahead remains key.

 

Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Rocco Baldelli is a good manager and has proven it during his early tenure with the Twins. While he has been criticized for removing arms early, he has often been given pitchers that struggle to go deep in games. He has managed the 26-man roster provided to him, and there is little reason to believe that won’t be the case again this season.

If Minnesota wants to extract more from what they put out in the year ahead, there are a few key areas they can control.

Baserunning
You don’t need analytics to dissect this as a Twins fan. Last season Minnesota was among the worst team on the bases across the entirety of the league. You saw it from an eye test, and you saw it from an individual standpoint. Multiple players ran into outs, and third base coach Tommy Watkins had several players thrown out at home. By Fangraphs base running metric, only the Washington Nationals were worse than the Twins, and their BsR of -20.7 was truly terrible. 

Infield Defense
At the beginning of the Derek Falvey and Thad Levine Era, there was an assumed level of production expected from the defense. When trying to support the team as a whole, playing solid defense was a legitimate way to prop up other lackluster areas. In recent seasons, the Twins' infield defense has become an area of concern, and it’s not one that has been quelled solely through the addition of Carlos Correa. Jose Miranda moving to the hot corner isn't likely to help, but Alex Kirilloff being healthy makes a difference at first base. Still, needing to be better on the dirt is something that remains imperative.

Coin Flips
Last year, manager Rocco Baldelli could be excused through a handful of things boiled down to bad luck. He often played the infield in or went with the numbers and wound up asking “what if.” The hope would be that there is room for normalization in 2023, and understanding that analytics genuinely bear fruit across a larger sample size. We have yet to see what a healthy version of this roster can do, but that should be the focal point in the year ahead.

There is no denying that the Minnesota Twins will point to injury when it comes to ineptitude faced during the 2022 season. Assuming a roster with better health, there should be plenty of improvement. Beyond wanting luck to better benefit them, there will also be opportunities for Minnesota to create its own growth. Forcing that this season will be a must, and it could represent the difference between taking a step forward or another step backward.

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[Brandon]

Well said.  Great article!

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Baserunning was a disaster.  Agreed that this needs to be better.

Not sure what to hope with the infield defense.  There is a good chance Arraez will get the lion's share of time at 1B, especially if the bat continues to be strong.  A healthy Polanco will help.  Correa is Correa. Miranda is a huge wildcard and more than likely a regression.
On the flip side they will have the best defensive outfield in baseball unless they trade Kepler.  

A common denominator among winning teams is luck.  If the luck thing goes the other direction for the Twins next year, it could be a huge swing.

[4twinsJA]

4. Improve health of team, less injuries.

[rwilfong86]

Absolutely agree. It was nauseating last season seeing guys thrown out at home by a mile because they were sent by Tommy Watkins.

[minman1982]

Baserunning: it is interesting this is the first article I have seen that mentioned this when the Twins were downright awful in this area last season.  So many blunders on real basic things.  I would also like to see them more active on the basepaths.  Try to steal a base every now and then.  The Twins were dead last in both stolen base attempts and stolen bases last season.  The Twins were successful about two thirds of the time when they did steal. 

Does anyone know what the break-even point is for stealing second?  At what success rate does it become advantageous to try to steal and risk the out?  

[D.C Twins]

They need to change the guy in the picture... but that will not happen until the end of this year unfortunately 

[tony&rodney]

I guess it is good to be optimistic and suggest that Spring Training will be used to help the Twins improve in some key areas: hit the cutoff man, cut off man gets to the correct position, run out of the batter's box, take the extra base whenever possible, move runners along, score runs from second and third with less than two outs, contact with two strikes, remember how many outs there are, steal a few bases, etc.

Last year the Twins were abysmal on the bases and with basic fundamentals. The success rate for stealing bases should be near 80%. Teams that run more often force the action and are often rewarded. Playing station to station baseball bores most fans and is also nonproductive.

A new season allows the Twins to change the vibe of how their team plays the game. Make the changes needed.

[HerbieFan]

Need WAY more emphasis on fundamentals.  If TK ws eren't still with us he'd be rolling over in his grave watching the Twins in 2022.

[minman1982]

1 hour ago, minman1982 said:

Baserunning: it is interesting this is the first article I have seen that mentioned this when the Twins were downright awful in this area last season.  So many blunders on real basic things.  I would also like to see them more active on the basepaths.  Try to steal a base every now and then.  The Twins were dead last in both stolen base attempts and stolen bases last season.  The Twins were successful about two thirds of the time when they did steal. 

Does anyone know what the break-even point is for stealing second?  At what success rate does it become advantageous to try to steal and risk the out?  

Found an answer to my question.  Looks like a success rate of about 75% is when stealing second becomes advantageous from an expected runs perspective.  If the Twins are only successful about two thirds of the time, this would probably explain why they aren't running more.

https://www.math.emory.edu/~ckeyes3/blog_stealing_bases.html

[Twins_Fan_For_Life]

"Better luck" - yes.  But I believe in any sport, you can create your own luck by playing hard and being fundamentally sound.  

[NotAboutWinning]

8 hours ago, minman1982 said:

Found an answer to my question.  Looks like a success rate of about 75% is when stealing second becomes advantageous from an expected runs perspective.  If the Twins are only successful about two thirds of the time, this would probably explain why they aren't running more.

https://www.math.emory.edu/~ckeyes3/blog_stealing_bases.html

I think stealing is an example of how analytics break down. There is an unmeasurable factor where the threat of a steal changes the behavior and focus of the other team. When Buxton is on base, the pitcher is less focused on the batter and the infielders make worse decisions. It is disruptive. Now that all the teams use analytics, the advantage goes to teams that can exploit these "breaks".

[Jeff D.]

I'll make this simple and it is only my opinion. Jettison Professor Baldelli, improve catching, and stop resurrection of players past mentality. I also think Mr. Watson needs to go or at least go back to first base coaching. He seemed better there. Third base is not his spot.

Twins Geezer.....out!

Go Twins!

 

[Karbo]

The biggest complaint I have about Rocco is the lack of stressing fundamentals. At times the last couple of seasons they looked like a high school team out there. There sometimes seems like the concept of "team" isn't as important as "personal stats".

[Whitey333]

Better base running isn't just in stealing bases.  Moreover it is advancing runners.  Taking an extra base to put guys in scoring position.  Putting pressure on the opponents outfielders to perhaps them making a mistake.  Tagging up to take the extra base.  Hustling out of the box.  Knowing how many outs there are.  These are all things the Twins need to improve on.  Sorry to all the Rocco apologists but it starts with the manager.

[Otaknam]

I agree that Rocco wasn’t given the best pitching staff to work with. But there were too many head scratching times where he took the starter outs when they had low pitch counts. It seems like this happened too much to Ryan and Gray, their two best starters. Use some intuition, Rocco, and put your computer algorithms away for awhile. 

[USAFChief]

My objections to this article:

1. I certainly agree baserunning has been bad recently for our Twins. Incredibly awful last year. And the lack of stolen bases is just a part of it. Runners lost, bases not gained, often zero situational awareness.

Where I think the article breaks down is, what's the plan to improve? Hope isn't a strategy. 

I'd start with the manager. You get the fundamentals you allow. Baldelli  needs to realize he's the primary source of both the problem and solution...add some old-school to his skill set. Make fundamentals a priority rather than an afterthought.  Demand players play the game correctly or find ones who will. 

2. Agree infield defense is likely an issue. Not sure what to do about it. 

3. "Hope for better luck" isn't a strategy. The single best way to get better "luck" late in games would be to assemble a "luckier" bullpen.  And by "luckier" I mean more talented. "Lucky" like Duran. 

[NotAboutWinning]

49 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

My objections to this article:

1. I certainly agree baserunning has been bad recently for our Twins. Incredibly awful last year. And the lack of stolen bases is just a part of it. Runners lost, bases not gained, often zero situational awareness.

Where I think the article breaks down is, what's the plan to improve? Hope isn't a strategy. 

I'd start with the manager. You get the fundamentals you allow. Baldelli  needs to realize he's the primary source of both the problem and solution...add some old-school to his skill set. Make fundamentals a priority rather than an afterthought.  Demand players play the game correctly or find ones who will. 

2. Agree infield defense is likely an issue. Not sure what to do about it. 

3. "Hope for better luck" isn't a strategy. The single best way to get better "luck" late in games would be to assemble a "luckier" bullpen.  And by "luckier" I mean more talented. "Lucky" like Duran. 

I firmly believe... in life we make our own luck!

[Sparky1]

Baserunning and some of the errors such as throwing to the wrong base are coaching whether that is Rocco of the minor league coaches I'm not sure. Rocco should attempt to steal more and hit and run more, Rocco basically sits back plays base to base and waits for the HR. 

I don't think Rocco is great at managing the pitching staff either. Taking pitchers out too soon and that puts too much pressure on the bullpen. He has to let them at least try to get through 6 or 7 innings sometimes.

I guess he is a "good" manager not great not terrible.

[PatPfund]

Rocco was given the pitching staff, but handling them has never been a strong point as even he would admit (he leaned HEAVILY on our departed pitching coach there). He needs to learn how to use long relievers better instead of using the SP for 5 followed by 4 RPs.

Base-running (as many have pointed out) is coached as a fundamental by the coaching staff which Rocco runs. We have 5000 assistants, it would be nice if one focused on base-running if that isn't Rocco's deal (you didn't see this sort of mess from Kelly or Molitor teams). But it is also worth noting that the injury roster churn had a number of MiLB players playing in the bigs, and that was where a lot of the problem lay. We need better base-running coaches at AA and AAA as well.

Miranda was solid at 3B in the minors; I expect he'll be fine there (and hit better than alternatives) if you stop bouncing him around position-wise. Polanco (formerly solid) was pretty dim on D last year. He'll need to clean that up and stay healthy or the infield prospects coming up (particularly Lee and Lewis) are going to force a change within this season.

[GeorgiaBaller]

@USAFChief--thank you.  We should not be apologists for a team that continually uses excuses---and we should not try to "fit" players into roles.  They have to FORCE their way onto the field.  "Well, we don't have anyone better right now" is an indictment of the Twins FO and the Mgr.  There is not a professional, high level expectation to perform.  It is improved by having a field general at SS in CC that raises the bar---but the bar should be set by the Mgr and the organization.  We don't not get interest from players in FA because of the weather, we don't get interest because there is not a driving expectation to win in the organization right now---and that is played out in lackluster performance in the infield--including the mound. And left field, to be fair.  

Raise the bar.  Bench guys that are slouches (thought we would never cut the cord with SANO) or not performing well.  Leadership starts at the top and that is something this organization has been "tepid" in doing for years. 

As I have said in this forum before---the Twins are going to have to EARN back my viewership, ticket buying and support.  They play boring baseball, are predictable and uninspired.  I'll check in at the end of June to see how the club is playing.  otherwise---there is plenty high quality baseball on the MLB package---which is where I will be spending my summer. 

[minman1982]

8 hours ago, NotAboutWinning said:

I think stealing is an example of how analytics break down. There is an unmeasurable factor where the threat of a steal changes the behavior and focus of the other team. When Buxton is on base, the pitcher is less focused on the batter and the infielders make worse decisions. It is disruptive. Now that all the teams use analytics, the advantage goes to teams that can exploit these "breaks".

I think the problem with trying to calculate the odds of successfully stealing is that there are so many variables to consider.  Many of these are hard to quantify and use to predict the outcome of the play.  How good is the catcher at throwing out potential base stealers?  How fast does the pitcher deliver to the plate?  Does the pitcher have a great/poor pickoff move which changes how much a player can lead off first?  How quick are the 2B and/or SS at applying a tag?  How fast is the runner at first?  How fast does the pitcher throw?  Where is the pitch going to be located?

This might be one of those plays where a large sample size evens out some of the variability in the play over the long run but this will require a team to steal a lot of bases.  If a team gets the reputation for one that is aggressive on the base paths, it should change how other teams approach them and thus alter the odds.

[Doctor Gast]

19 hours ago, Twins_Fan_For_Life said:

"Better luck" - yes.  But I believe in any sport, you can create your own luck by playing hard and being fundamentally sound.  

Fundamentals were horrid. That's  includes base running & bunting.

Health management was worse. Too much stress on BP & rotation due to ignoring long relief. Players playing hurt which led to losing players. Although part of our problem was bad luck most of it was due to poor management. I agree with TFFL that you create your own luck. 

IMO our INF was pretty good until we lost Lewis then Polanco. 1B leaves something to be desired but 1B isn't a crucial position & hopefully Kiriloff will return strong as well eventually a heathy & quicker Julien. The addition of Farmer has greatly increased our INF depth.

Nash Walker presented that our greatest weakness is corner OF. Even w/ the addition of Gallo & the glut there, we are ranked very low in MLB WAR. IMO Larnach & Kepler will bounce back & Gordon will take another step that will help out but Walker suggested another RH bat.

Catcher was ranked one of the worse until we obtained Vazquez which brought us up to average.  CF, SS & BP was ranked the highest.

[nmcowboy]

Fundamentals have been horrible for a couple of years now.  What ever happened to "the Twins Way", which previously permeated the Twins and their minor league teams and managers?

[Fred]

18 hours ago, nmcowboy said:

Fundamentals have been horrible for a couple of years now.  What ever happened to "the Twins Way", which previously permeated the Twins and their minor league teams and managers?

"The Twin's Way" is a good way to maximize the contributions of guys like Celestino, but it shouldn't have to be taught in the Majors. If a guy comes up without knowing how to bunt, which base to throw to, etc., the minor league coaches and managers (The ones who should be teaching) need to be held accountable. That being said, I don't ever want to see guys like Nelson Cruz concentrating on hitting behind the runner, or bunting, for that matter.

[Minfidel]

One of those other teams in town specialized this year in "winning in the margins"; that is preparing the players and coaches in advance to avoid crucial situational mistakes. In doing so, they won an amazing number of close games despite some deeply flawed components - and a horrific record in close games the previous season. 

The Twins are supposedly driven by analytics in the FO and coaches - yet they seem helpless when it comes to recognizing and dealing with all those little things that are costing them, game in and game out.