Would Another Marlins Pitcher Be a Better Trade Candidate than Pablo López?

[Ted Schwerzler]

Earlier this offseason, the Minnesota Twins were reported to be in contact with the Miami Marlins regarding pitching help. Those talks have since cooled, but a pivot to another arm from South Beach may make sense as they look for starting pitching talent.

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

In December, reports suggested the Twins were in talks with the Miami Marlins regarding Pablo Lopez. The package discussed could have included American League batting champion Luis Arraez, but developments following the signing of catcher Christian Vazquez changed the course for the front office. Per a source, López’s camp would have been ecstatic for an opportunity to win with the Twins, but that has not come to fruition thus far.

At that time, the Marlins were listening on basically everyone in their rotation not named Sandy Alcantara. Reports over the weekend suggest that remains the case, and Minnesota could benefit from targeting one of the other three.

Trevor Rogers
A former first-round pick, Rogers was an All-Star and came up just short in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2021. He posted a 2.64 ERA across 133 innings while striking out 10.6 per nine. Adjustments were made against him last season, and Rogers didn’t see the same success. His 4.35 FIP was better than the 5.47 ERA, but he was routinely knocked out of games early and the strikeout rate dropped by nearly two per nine. Rogers’ biggest bugaboo last year was the long ball, paired with more traffic on the basepaths. He is still young, there is a lot to like here, and he will be under team control through 2026.

Jesus Luzardo
Acquired by the Marlins in exchange for outfielder Starling Marte, Luzardo was once a consensus top-10 prospect across Major League Baseball. He struggled through his first three Major League seasons but turned a corner last year. His 3.32 ERA across 100 1/3 innings was nice, and the strikeouts reached double-digits per nine for the first time in his career. His FIP suggested the numbers weren’t fluky, and he did a great job limiting damage allowing just a 1.037 WHIP. Also under team control through 2026, Luzardo could get expensive quickly with a higher ceiling and is subject to Super 2 status. It would be the third time he has been traded by age 25, but there should be no reason the Marlins couldn’t net a solid return.

Edward Cabrera
The most intriguing youth option here, Cabrera, would command the most. He is not a free agent until after the 2028 season, and he was a top 50 prospect coming into 2022. Cabrera posted a 3.01 ERA across 14 starts, tallying 71 2/3 innings. The strikeout stuff is electric, and the movement he generates on pitches makes him look untouchable at times. He walked too many batters last year and was prone to the home run, but neither of those things is shocking for such a young talent. Cabrera will be 25 this season, but if the Twins feel they can work with him and get more as he develops, this is probably the cream of Miami’s crop of young hurlers.

Without knowing the degree of desired return for Miami’s latter assets, it’s hard to know what path forward could serve Minnesota best. It would hurt losing Arráez to Miami, but he’s also a perfect fit for the openings they currently have on their 26-man roster. The Twins don’t have a substantial amount of top-end prospect capital that they would be willing to trade, but there are a few major league assets they could part with.

It is likely that Minnesota will be active on the trade market, and bringing in an arm is the most logical move. There was nearly a fit here before, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see that opportunity present itself again.

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[BsuNemo]

If it's not Alcantara the twins don't need "him" whoever him is. We don't need anything other than a true #1. We've got a solid group of 2s and 3s and some intrigue in the pipeline. What puts us over the edge is an ace. Give up Larnach, Martin, Kep and Polo for him. A trade for anything less than an ace doesn't do it for me. 

[chinmusic]

On 1/13/2023 at 8:30 AM, BsuNemo said:

A trade for anything less than an ace doesn't do it for me

 

I agree with that!

[terrydactyls]

I would offer the Marlins the choice of any two out of Kepler, Arraez, and Polanco for Cabrera - as an initial position.  If they ask for more, offer all three.  Still not enough?  Start adding surplus LH OFs until they say yes.  The Twins would have to give up a lot but they also would not be depleting the farm system.

[Fatbat]

Id trade Kepler and Polanco for Cabrera. We could put Farmer/Arraez at 2nd until Lewis or Julien is ready to take it by July/Aug.  there would probably be other milb pieces involved but dont trade Arraez. We need him on base. 

[RJA]

Yes, Ted, we need to look at other options.  Lopez is not a top rotation guy and only has 2 years of control.  He doesn't move the needle that much.  Cabrera or possibly Luzardo both have potential to be better than Lopez and have more years of control.  If we are going to trade for pitching, let's make sure we get years or control and someone who can lead the rotation even if it costs more.  If that doesn't work, keep what we have and add to the bullpen, or a right hand bat for the outfield.

[JakeBru3]

16 minutes ago, BsuNemo said:

If it's not Alcantara the twins don't need "him" whoever him is. We don't need anything other than a true #1. We've got a solid group of 2s and 3s and some intrigue in the pipeline. What puts us over the edge is an ace. Give up Larnach, Martin, Kep and Polo for him. A trade for anything less than an ace doesn't do it for me. 

That's what your hoping Luzardo or Cabrera develop and become.  It is very hard to find an "ace" that a team is just willing to trade. There aren't a lot of true #1 Ace pitchers out there and the ones that are more than likely aren't just being dangled to trade.

You have to find a young SP who has the #1 upside that those 2 probably do and acquire them early before they are that ace. 

[Trov]

It is hard to speculate on what Miami is doing, are they just shopping pitching knowing they have some and would just want to trade away 1 and hope the return makes them possible contender, or they doing Reds/Athletic style tear down fire sale?  Miami has been known to do that in past. 

If they are doing full tear down, only prospects and young controlled guys will get any deal done.   If they are floating names for hopefully faster rebuild or compete this year, then MLB ready guys like Arraez could be used.  The only issue I have, is unless you are 100% convinced they will be better than our top 2 or 3 guys, what is the point?  I mean why trade off assets to just clog up our pitching to not increase the floor of that pitching? 

I am not opposed to a deal for better pitching, but I am not seeing any of them clearly being better.  The one that does interest me the most is Luzardo.  I find it interesting how crazy the home road splits are for Luzardo and Cabrera.  Both did much better away than home.  I wonder what led to that. 

[terrydactyls]

17 minutes ago, BsuNemo said:

If it's not Alcantara the twins don't need "him" whoever him is. We don't need anything other than a true #1. We've got a solid group of 2s and 3s and some intrigue in the pipeline. What puts us over the edge is an ace. Give up Larnach, Martin, Kep and Polo for him. A trade for anything less than an ace doesn't do it for me. 

I think that any team that has an Ace, would not trade him unless the Ace were nearing retirement. But with a strong starting pitcher staff, they might be willing to trade a strong number 2 (with a chance to become a number 1) for the right price.  Please refer to the brilliant comment above from Terrydactyls for an example.  (Oh, wait a moment.  That comment came from me!)

[High heat]

Cabrera is very intriguing!!!
Would they take a Brooks Lee and Larnach deal?

[weitz41]

Braxton Garrett or Jesus Luzardo. The cost shouldn't be too terribly high for either. Both have a chance to be a 1 or 2.

[Nashvilletwin]

Let’s try to break this down a bit.  The goal for the Twins this year should be to win the Central (and see where things go from there) while building/not screwing up the roster for a longer and more open window in ‘24-‘26.

1. If healthy, our starting staff is solid - in reality, how much more value would be created by replacing Ober with one of these Marlins. Some for sure, but at what cost to ‘24-‘26? 

2. With an injury or two, we still have SWR, Varland and Winder for depth. Could one, or even a mix of all three, do nearly as well as one of the Marlins? Possibly. But we should expect injuries to our current starters and having another fairly certain 100+ IP SP arm would be a super hedge.

3. After this year, there is no certainty we resign any of Gray, Mahle or Maeda. That leaves us with Ryan, Ober and the three prospects (four if you include Balazovic). At least one more dependable, controllable and cheap SP arm is highly desirable heading into ‘24 and beyond.

4. Ideally, we do not want to move any position player assets who have a reasonable chance to be impactful on the roster in ‘24-‘26.  This list includes Arraez, Gordon, Lewis, Lee, Martin, Julien, Rodriguez, Miranda, Wallner, and maybe one of Larnach or Kiriloff. This list probably does not include Kepler, Polanco, Farmer, Gallo, Celestino, Miller, Sabato, Cavaco, Urbina, and possibly one of Larnach or Kiriloff. 

Conclusion: We definitely could use another reliable 100 IP starter to both maximise our chances this season while giving us a solid core rotation heading into ‘24-‘26.  Any package of the position players listed above to get that done which includes (if required) a) one of either Farmer or Polanco, b) one of either Kepler or Gallo, c) one of either Celestino, Larnach or Kiriloff, and d) one of Miller, Sabato, Cavaco, or Urbina makes sense and might be doable. The order of interest IMHO would be: Cabrera, Luzardo, Lopez and Rogers.

[Blyleven2011]

Marlins need hitters the twins need a pitcher that is better than Sonny Grayand with some team control  ... 

I'm not going to speculate on who to trade for pitching , only Miami knows what they want ...

Remember the cold weather will not make anybody better until it warms up and the twins have not been  a good team in cold climate at the beginning or late in the playoffs  ...

[August J Gloop]

Cabrera and Luzardo would be the dream get for the Twins and definitely worth Lee as the central part of the package. I don't know the full package, but the Twins absolutely could build it. The rotation would be solid (with at least two , could go 6 deep at all times, with the other stating options taking turns at Spå Bullpën to keep them arms light.  

Rotation - 1 - Grey, 2 - Ryan, 3 - Luz, 4 - Cab, 5 - Maeda, 6 - Mahle

I like the idea of moving your most talented starters to the middle of your rotation, because it maximizes their seasonal value. (Against an Ace you generally need the Ace to have a bad day anyway to win so why not burn the bad start against a shut out?) I don't really think the Twins Rotation can be all that optimized, since everyone is all kinda on the same basic above average level. Cab and Luz bring potential for #1, but their floor is still good for the Twins outlook. 

Bully would look something like this: 

Ober as SP 7, rotating in and pitching 5 innings frequently. 
Pagan as the DFA ready long guy. (Emilio has to pitch his way out of the doghouse in these low leverage innings)

Thielbar, Moran, Jax, Alcala, Lopez and Splink at the back end.

I would Sign Matt Moore and bring back Fulmer to beef the Bully up. That would mean a DFA for Pagan, and likely AAA for Moran (unless Alcala is still slow to recover). 

If a 5 Man is better, you could still do the rotating starter with Kenta and Mahle and Ober all recovering from tough health years.

SWR, Louie, Blaze and Henriquez would all be doing their best to knock on the door.  

[Dan In Real Life]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

I would offer the Marlins the choice of any two out of Kepler, Arraez, and Polanco for Cabrera - as an initial position.  If they ask for more, offer all three.  Still not enough?  Start adding surplus LH OFs until they say yes.  The Twins would have to give up a lot but they also would not be depleting the farm system.

I really like Cabrera, but losing all 3 you mentioned seems too much to me. Arraez is at career peak trade value right now. If you include him in a package, it's got to be for more than excellent potential. Maybe straight up for Cabrera, but I doubt the Marlins would go for that.

[tony&rodney]

Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez are strictly NOT available, off the table - no discussion. 

Pablo Lopez is a pretty good outcome whenever he pitches, but the Twins need more years of control.

Both of Edward Cabrera and Jesus Luzardo have great upside. The Twins should really look at trying to acquire one of these two pitchers. Each is capable of shutting down any team in baseball as soon as this October.

[Dman]

I don't know if Arraez fits long term with the Twins or not and I get trading players at their peak value and this is Luis's peek value.  However, it feels like dealing him this year is one year too early.  Lewis is out until the end of the year. We don't know where Brooks Lee will land and Somewhat Luis clone with eye at the plate Jullien is unproven beyond AA.  A lot of those questions should be answered after this year and then you could decide if there is still room for the little engine that could (Arraez). The Twins need his bat pretty badly this coming year and yes they could use better pitching as well but I think I would just hold off and see how things shake out and if needed do a deadline deal.

I know that no one really wants Lopez but if the Twins can work a trade for Kepler and a little more to get him I think that would be prudent.  When you look at the Berrios and Mahle deals they included players that were close to being MLB ready and players in or close to in the top 100.  In this case the Marlins get an actual MLB player in Kepler and if they threw in Larnach who is technically another MLB player with lots of years of control and maybe a couple of lottery tickets that seems in range given some of these other deals.  Don't like Larnach then how about Martin who is close to ready and can play infield and outfield.  Maybe the Twins sweeten it by taking on some of the money to even the money out.  I think that is a fair ask for two years of Lopez and that is something the Twins can afford IMO.  If that isn't enough and it probably isn't then I am probably out on Lopez but if the Marlins can be flexible about working a trade around Kepler then I think that would help this team.

Would a deal for Arraez to get Cabrera or Luzardo be worth it?  Maybe. I don't know if I trust Luzardo but maybe Cabrera.  Still Arraez would be a high price to pay and that is what it will cost to get one of those arms.

[Steve Lein]

Personally, I highly prefer any of these options over Pablo Lopez, especially if Luis Arraez is the cost of doing business.

While I don't think Lopez is a bad pitcher by any means, I don't think he is better, nor has the potential to be better, than Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Bailey Ober, or Kenta Maeda. He's more of the same. Mid-rotation at his best (he was not particularly good for most of the 2022 season). I'd rather have the potential of these other Marlin's guys to get more than that, and the difference between 2 years of control or 4+ also looms large.

[sun]

Trading Arraez is not the cost of doing business to buy lottery ticket pitchers. He's the top hitter in the AL & maybe in all of MLB. If Arraez is wiling to sacrifice his knees to win a world series for the Twins then I want to keep him here. At least see if he is willing to be extended so that we can keep him as a pure DH. He's worth 2 stud pitchers alone. My reasoning is that a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush.

I don't really like the Twins being dictated to by the Marlins. I would consider trading 2 or 3 players for a pitcher like Luzardo, but Arraez should be off the table unless he's not willing to negotiate a reasonable extension. I realize that the Marlins want players with control. Young pitchers receiving shoestring pay may be able to win some games, but doubtful that each can beat the big market teams. We already have some of those types of pitchers. I'd rather see us keep Arraez, get Luzardo and pay for a free agent like Wacha. Arraez can always be traded later but the Twins only get to keep him once. When we need a proven ace then Arraez can be our real ace in the hole. 

[Heiny]

6 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Let’s try to break this down a bit.  The goal for the Twins this year should be to win the Central (and see where things go from there) while building/not screwing up the roster for a longer and more open window in ‘24-‘26.

1. If healthy, our starting staff is solid - in reality, how much more value would be created by replacing Ober with one of these Marlins. Some for sure, but at what cost to ‘24-‘26? 

2. With an injury or two, we still have SWR, Varland and Winder for depth. Could one, or even a mix of all three, do nearly as well as one of the Marlins? Possibly. But we should expect injuries to our current starters and having another fairly certain 100+ IP SP arm would be a super hedge.

3. After this year, there is no certainty we resign any of Gray, Mahle or Maeda. That leaves us with Ryan, Ober and the three prospects (four if you include Balazovic). At least one more dependable, controllable and cheap SP arm is highly desirable heading into ‘24 and beyond.

4. Ideally, we do not want to move any position player assets who have a reasonable chance to be impactful on the roster in ‘24-‘26.  This list includes Arraez, Gordon, Lewis, Lee, Martin, Julien, Rodriguez, Miranda, Wallner, and maybe one of Larnach or Kiriloff. This list probably does not include Kepler, Polanco, Farmer, Gallo, Celestino, Miller, Sabato, Cavaco, Urbina, and possibly one of Larnach or Kiriloff. 

Conclusion: We definitely could use another reliable 100 IP starter to both maximise our chances this season while giving us a solid core rotation heading into ‘24-‘26.  Any package of the position players listed above to get that done which includes (if required) a) one of either Farmer or Polanco, b) one of either Kepler or Gallo, c) one of either Celestino, Larnach or Kiriloff, and d) one of Miller, Sabato, Cavaco, or Urbina makes sense and might be doable. The order of interest IMHO would be: Cabrera, Luzardo, Lopez and Rogers.

+++Love your analysis.   I think the Twins should be going after Cabreara or Luzardo.  But I would hate to give up on any of Lewis, Larnach, Kepler, and definately not Lee or Prilipp.  Again, great write-up.

 

Edit:  meanto put Kirriloff in there.  Not Kepler.

 

 

[Dman]

40 minutes ago, Steve Lein said:

Personally, I highly prefer any of these options over Pablo Lopez, especially if Luis Arraez is the cost of doing business.

While I don't think Lopez is a bad pitcher by any means, I don't think he is better, nor has the potential to be better, than Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Bailey Ober, or Kenta Maeda. He's more of the same. Mid-rotation at his best (he was not particularly good for most of the 2022 season). I'd rather have the potential of these other Marlin's guys to get more than that, and the difference between 2 years of control or 4+ also looms large.

I get your concern and don't disagree but Gray, Mahle and Ober all Spent time on the IL and Maeda is coming back from TJ surgery.  While Lopez might be no better a pitcher he would be there for insurance.  I wouldn't do the deal for Lopez if Arraez is included but Lopez sure could cover if the injury bug bites the Twins again.

[Doctor Gast]

I agree with Nashville that we could make it happen with this rotation/ BP. But only if we establish a strong long relief/ spot SP corps of Maeda, Ober with Varland, SWR & Winder plus throw in Sands & Dobnak, depending on how they do. IMO this the best way, because it takes stress from rotation & BP plus it eases these spot SP/ long RPs into the starting rotation w/o over stretching them.

But Baldelli is stuck on TB formula of SP= 5 innings + BP= 1 inning + BP= 1 inning + BP= 1 inning + BP= 1 inning + BP= 1 inning. Of course SP sometime goes 6 & sometime we go into extra innings, on average that's it. So we need to be more like TB by having SPs that can go at least 5 regularly and a stable full of impact short RPs. Thus we absolutely need another front-line pitcher and MIA is willing to deal & I'd like any from their list. Trading on the offseason is less messy than deadline trading.

I don't want to trade any of our athletic prospects Lewis, Lee, Martin or even Julien because their future value will be much higher & worth to the team. Kepler, Larnach & Kiriloff are at a low point, IMO they could double their trade value in a short time.

I like Arraez but if we want to compete under Baldelli, we need a front-line pitcher and Arraez is the best trade candidate. Why? Because our greatest glut right now is corner OF/ 1B/ DH. Of that group Arraez has the highest trade value which won't get any higher & will decrease. Arraez is expendable, we have a plethora of great hitters that can even play a better 1B.

Why not put Arraez at 2B & trade Polanco? Because Polanco when he's allowed to play healthy is solid at 2B where Arraez has no range & will be a disaster there. Arraez is a OB machine especially facing RHPs, but he normally can't beat out an INF hit, take an extra base or steal one nor score on a short OF fly. Polanco is a very good clutch switch hitter and a better runner.

I'm not not against trading Polanco, eventually Lewis will take his spot. But not now.

[Steve Lein]

14 minutes ago, Dman said:

I get your concern and don't disagree but Gray, Mahle and Ober all Spent time on the IL and Maeda is coming back from TJ surgery.  While Lopez might be no better a pitcher he would be there for insurance.  I wouldn't do the deal for Lopez if Arraez is included but Lopez sure could cover if the injury bug bites the Twins again.

I don't really share this concern. The Twins already demonstrated they have rotation depth they can tap this past season to cover any inevitable injuries. Josh Winder, Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson; Maeda you mention will also be back. I'm not acquiring Lopez because insurance for this is the idea around what the team gains. In fact, I'm flat-out not targeting him because he might be no better a pitcher.

I agree 100% that I don't want Lopez if Arraez is the cost. Have to aim higher with a perennial-batting-champ-contender type hitter, IMO.

Edited January 13, 2023 by Steve Lein

[ToriiRules!!]

Need to focus on the BP in my opinion, with the way Rocco manages our Starters.

[4twinsJA]

Miami has Alcantara, Rogers, Luzardo, Cabrera, and Lopez, with Eury Perez and Max Meyer(post elbow surg) on the way up in the future. They also signed Cueto this offseason. Miami has plenty of starting pitching options, can afford to trade at least one good SP. They need hitters. To get a pitcher with years of control yet, may need to offer same in position player with some MLB experience. No one has mentioned Miranda, maybe a package of Miranda and Kepler and as Nashvilletwin suggested throw in one of former first round picks Sabato or Cavaco-maybe both.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Cabrera. Yes.

I'd be OK with Lopez too. But not for people like Lee, Lewis, etc. Or Arraez for that matter. He would fit fine behind Gray and Mahle at #3. He'd give us great depth but he's not a top of the rotation guy. Plus you only have him for two seasons w/o an agreed upon extention.

Cabrera though......

[sweetmusicviola16]

1 hour ago, Steve Lein said:

 

I agree 100% that I don't want Lopez if Arraez is the cost. Have to aim higher with a perennial-batting-champ-contender type hitter, IMO.

I like 100%

[South Dakota Tom]

Big swing here, but is there one way to keep Polanco and Arraez and still get two pitchers? - we would give the Marlins Kepler and Brooks Lee and get back Luzardo and Cabrera.  I know losing Lee hurts, but he is one of 4 SS/IF prospects, and with Farmer and Royce Lewis and Martin and Julien and the current infield, he is (in a weird way) almost expendable.

Four years of control over Luzardo and Cabrera, Marlins get a potential stud and a valuable LH outfielder for something that is surplus to them (with their current rotation plus Eury and Max Meyer). 

[James]

10 minutes ago, 4twinsJA said:

...throw in one of former first round picks Sabato or Cavaco-maybe both.

Sabato has no trade value.  Cavaco has only slightly more because he's a SS and young.  Those two aren't going to move the needle on any trade.

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, Heiny said:

+++Love your analysis.   I think the Twins should be going after Cabreara or Luzardo.  But I would hate to give up on any of Lewis, Larnach, Kepler, and definately not Lee or Prilipp.  Again, great write-up.

 

Thank you!  Have a great weekend!